新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 多空博弈剧烈，碳酸锂高开低走 市场分析 2025-10-09，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于73200元/吨，收于73340元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化0.27%。当日成 交量为361093手，持仓量为229022手，前一交易日持仓量231964手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为170元/吨（电 碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单42379手，较上个交易日变化670手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价72900-74200元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报价 70700-71900元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨。6%锂精矿价格830美元/吨，较前一日变化-5美元/吨。据SMM数据， 节后首个工作日市场成交清淡，上下游均持观望态度。供应方面，锂辉石端和盐湖端均有新产线投产，预计10月 碳酸锂总产量仍具备增长潜力。需求方面，动力市场新能源汽车商用乘用同时快速增长；储能市场供需两旺。整 体来看，10月供应虽稳步增长，形成阶段性供应偏紧态势。 根据最新统计周度数据，周度产量增加119吨至20635吨，以锂辉石生产产量小幅增加，云母生产产量小幅 ...

2025 年 10 月 10 日 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM、Fastmarkets 【宏观及行业新闻】 本周碳酸锂产量 20635 吨，较上周增加 119 吨。行业库存 134801 吨，较上周减少 2024 吨。（上海有 色网） 2025 年 9 月智利出口碳酸锂 1.59 万吨，同环比分别-13%/-6%，出口均价 8704 美元/吨，同环比分 别+15%/+2%；其中出口至中国的量 1.11 万吨（环比减少 1881 吨，环比-14%），出口至日本的量 370 吨， 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 碳酸锂：去库加速，震荡运行 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 73,340 | 540 | 460 | -300 | -2,220 | 10,860 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 361,093 | 43,63 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term prices of lithium carbonate are supported by destocking, but it's difficult to drive prices up independently. In the long - term, the supply side is expected to remain high or increase, while the demand side faces downward pressure [2][17] - It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities when prices are high and the reverse spread opportunity between LC2511 and LC2512 [3][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chile's September Shipment Continued to Decline, and Destocking Supported Short - term Prices - Before the holiday (09/22 - 09/30), lithium salt prices showed a weak oscillation. LC2510's closing price dropped 1.4% month - on - month to 72,700 yuan/ton, and LC2511's closing price dropped 1.6% month - on - month to 72,800 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased 0.1% month - on - month to 73,600 and 71,300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased within the week. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide dropped 0.6% and 0.5% month - on - month to 73,600 and 78,600 yuan/ton respectively. The electric - industrial price difference remained flat at 2,300 yuan/ton, and the premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to near 0 [1][10] - In September, Chile exported a total of 18,300 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 9% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 11,100 tons, a 15% month - on - month and 33% year - on - year decrease, and the arrival volume in October is expected to continue to decline. From January to September, Chile exported a total of 188,000 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 4% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 121,000 tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In terms of lithium sulfate, in September, Chile shipped 8,400 tons (4,200 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a 21% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, a total of 70,000 tons (35,000 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate were shipped to China, a 101% year - on - year increase [2][11] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project started trial production and produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products, which will increase the company's lithium salt production capacity [18] - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially completed and put into operation [18] - Core Lithium terminated the last off - take agreement of the Finniss lithium project, paying $2 million to release the future production capacity of the project [18] - Liontown Resources reached an agreement with Tesla to modify the pricing mechanism in the long - term off - take agreement [19] - The US government acquired a 5% stake in Lithium Americas and a 5% stake in its joint project with General Motors, and Lithium Americas will draw $435 million from a previously announced $2.26 billion loan [19] - Eight lithium mines in Yichun have submitted relevant reports, and the possibility of suspension of production of producing mines is low [20][21] 3.3 Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Remained Stable - The spot price of lithium concentrate remained stable, with the average spot price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) at $858/ton, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease [11] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Market Was Weakly Oscillating - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot showed a weak oscillation. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 decreased month - on - month, while the average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased [1][10][11] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Declined - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed different degrees of changes, with some prices rising slightly and some remaining stable [11] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August Further Increased - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in power batteries further increased [46]

2025 年 9 月 30 日 碳酸锂：关注矿证变化，节前建议轻仓操作 | | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | | | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | | | | liuhongru@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 73,920 | 1,040 | 500 | 1,240 | -4,220 | 10,820 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 465,591 | -15,429 | 68,946 | -17,199 | -339,994 | 400,435 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 251,749 | 3,109 | -19 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on developing and utilizing lithium battery raw materials, with a current mining capacity of 4.18 million tons per year, ensuring stable raw material supply for the smelting process [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company plans to establish lithium sulfate production capacity in Africa to enhance operational efficiency and reduce transportation costs, which is part of a strategy for industry chain collaboration [1] - The company aims to continuously optimize the stability and economic efficiency of the lithium battery raw material supply chain by integrating domestic and international resources and capacity allocation in response to market and policy changes [1]

[T走ab势le_评R级an：k] 碳酸锂：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 9 月 7 日 [Table_Summary] ★智利 8 月发运环比回落，周内仓单大幅增加 上周（09/01-09/05）锂盐价格弱势运行。LC2509 收盘价环比-4.1% 至 7.39 万元/吨，LC2511 收盘价环比-3.8%至 7.43 万元/吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比-6.2%、-6.3%至 7.48、7.25 万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格下调，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级 氢氧化锂均价环比-1.8%、-1.6%至 7.56、8.05 万元/吨。电工价差 环比略收窄至 0.23 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价 格由贴水转为小幅升水 0.08 万元/吨。 有 色 金 属 据智利海关，8 月智利共出口碳酸锂及氢氧化锂 2.01 万吨，环比 -16%，同比+11%；其中对中国出口 1.30 万吨，环比-5%，同比 +7%，对应 9 月进口量小幅回落。1-8 月智利共计出口碳酸锂及 氢氧化锂 16.9 万吨，同比-4%；其中对中国出口 10.98 万吨，同 比-14%。硫酸锂方面，8 月智利对中国发运硫 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company is actively advancing its nickel and cobalt resource development and refining projects, with plans to double its production capacity by 2028, while also optimizing costs in its lithium and copper businesses [2][3][12]. Nickel and Cobalt Resource Development and Refining - The company has three major projects in progress: the Bomara project (61.5% ownership), the Lofat area project (4,000 tons capacity), and the Waku wet process project (6,000 tons capacity), with total nickel-cobalt refining capacity expected to reach 360,000 tons by 2028 [2]. - The company is adjusting the process of its 45,000-ton high-pressure acid leaching project in Indonesia to improve profitability, shifting from a multi-step process to direct processing into liquid stainless steel due to current losses [2]. Lithium Business - The company's lithium business in Zimbabwe has an initial cost of approximately 67,000-68,000 RMB/ton, which is expected to decrease to below 60,000 RMB/ton as new projects come online [3]. - The projected lithium carbonate output for 2025 is 26,000 tons, with a target of 60,000-80,000 tons for 2026, potentially increasing to 120,000 tons if lithium prices are favorable [3]. - A lithium sulfate project is set to be completed by the end of 2025, with production ramping up in early 2026, although it will not fully meet the raw material needs for the planned lithium carbonate output [3]. Copper Business in the Democratic Republic of Congo - The company has a current copper refining capacity of 100,000 tons, with an expected output of 80,000-90,000 tons in 2025, relying on external purchases after its own mines are depleted [5]. - To address power shortages, the company plans to build a 28 MW solar and storage project in the DRC, which is expected to significantly reduce electricity costs and increase profitability [5]. Energy Metal Price Outlook - Nickel prices are currently at a bottom cost line of $15,000-$16,000/ton, with limited upward movement expected due to government regulations in Indonesia [7]. - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to tight supply and low inventory levels, with the company benefiting from its 12,000 tons of cobalt rights [8]. - The reasonable price for lithium carbonate is around 80,000 RMB/ton, with limited room for significant price increases [9]. Financial and Capital Expenditure - The company plans to invest approximately 10 billion RMB annually, focusing on key projects in Indonesia and resource acquisition [11]. - The financing cost is low at 3.6%-3.7%, with a manageable leverage ratio, and the company is encouraging the conversion of convertible bonds to reduce interest expenses [11]. - The company aims to maintain a stable cash flow to cover most capital expenditures, with a target of achieving a net profit of 700-800 million RMB annually from its copper business [5][11].

Summary of the Conference Call on Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The cobalt price surge is primarily driven by the export ban and quota policy implemented by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) since February 22, 2025, with potential quotas expected after September 22, 2025. If quotas are set below 50% of production, supply tightness will intensify, further driving up cobalt prices [2][5][8]. - Market expectations indicate that cobalt prices could rise to 400,000 CNY per ton in 2025, as the DRC aims to recover from previous losses where prices fell to 150,000-160,000 CNY per ton [2][4]. Company Insights - Huayou Cobalt is positioned as the largest beneficiary of increased cobalt production from nickel by-products in Indonesia, with an estimated cobalt equity of 12,000 tons from nickel production [2][11]. - The company is enhancing profitability through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with lithium sulfate cost reductions expected to contribute 500 million CNY to profits [2][13][14]. - Huayou Cobalt's nickel segment is set to double its production capacity, with the COMALA project expected to commence production by the end of next year and the Sorowako project anticipated to start in 2027-2028 [2][17]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Huayou Cobalt achieved a profit of 2.7 billion CNY, with expectations for improved performance in the second half, leading to an overall profit of over 5 billion CNY for the year [10][12]. - The company's current market capitalization is over 70 billion CNY, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 13, indicating a reasonable valuation with significant upside potential as cobalt and nickel prices are at historical lows [4][12][15]. Market Dynamics - Recent customs data revealed a decrease in imported cobalt intermediate products, with July imports at approximately 14,000 tons, down from over 19,000 tons in June and nearly 50,000 tons in May, contributing to the overall increase in cobalt prices [3]. - The DRC's export ban has led to a tightening supply, with cobalt prices currently ranging between 250,000 and 260,000 CNY per ton, with expectations for a rapid price increase by late August to early September [5][6]. Future Outlook - The cobalt industry outlook remains positive, with expectations for a price surge towards the end of the year, potentially reaching 400,000 CNY per ton [6][10]. - Demand for power batteries and consumer electronics (3C) is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, although the extent of improvement may be limited [9]. - Huayou Cobalt's strategic focus on cost control and efficiency, alongside its growth in nickel production capacity, positions the company favorably for future profitability and stock price appreciation [14][15][17]. Additional Considerations - The DRC is likely to introduce supportive policies post-September 22, which could impact market dynamics significantly. If quotas are set too leniently, it may lead to a price drop, while stricter quotas could sustain or increase prices [8]. - The company is optimistic about the performance of its ternary materials, particularly in the cylindrical battery market, which is expected to see significant growth [14]. This comprehensive analysis highlights Huayou Cobalt's strategic positioning within the cobalt industry, its financial performance, and the broader market dynamics influencing future growth.

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth, driven by increased nickel production and strategic optimization of product offerings [4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 37.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.71 billion yuan, up 62.3% [4]. - Q2 2025 revenue reached 19.35 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.5% [4]. Group 2: Metal Production - Nickel product shipments increased by 84% year-on-year, totaling 139,000 tons, primarily due to the release of wet processing capacity from laterite nickel ore [5]. - Cobalt shipments decreased by 9.9% year-on-year to 21,000 tons, impacted by the export ban on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Group 3: Lithium Battery Materials - In H1 2025, shipments of ternary cathode materials reached 39,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.7%, with high-nickel 9-series products accounting for over 60% of the total [6]. - The company actively reduced shipments of lower-margin products to optimize its product structure, resulting in a decline in shipments of ternary precursors to 42,100 tons compared to the same period last year [6]. Group 4: Project Developments - The company has added two new equity interests in laterite nickel mines in Indonesia, enhancing its nickel and cobalt resource reserves [8]. - The Pomalaa wet nickel project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons, has commenced construction, while the Sorowako project is progressing well in its preparatory phase [8]. Group 5: Lithium and Lithium Battery Materials - The Arcadia lithium mine in Zimbabwe increased its resource reserves from 1.5 million tons to 2.45 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with an improved grade of 1.34% [9]. - A lithium sulfate project with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons is in the equipment installation phase, expected to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt production costs [9]. - The first phase of the 50,000-ton ternary precursor project in Indonesia has achieved bulk supply, laying the foundation for entry into the North American market [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "Bullish" [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices rose again. The closing prices of LC2508 and LC2509 increased by 9.9% and 11.2% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.8%. The prices of lithium hydroxide continued to rise. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and the positive spread opportunity between months [2][13]. - The mining end of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area is planned to stop production on August 9th with no short - term resumption plan. This will lead to a production loss of about 11% of domestic lithium carbonate, turn the Q3 balance sheet into de - stocking, and narrow the annual balance sheet's inventory accumulation amplitude [4][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Supply - side Disturbance Materializes, and the Futures Market Rises Again - From August 4th to 8th, lithium salt prices rose. LC2508 and LC2509 closing prices increased by 9.9% and 11.2% respectively. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices increased by 0.8%. Lithium hydroxide prices continued to rise [2][13]. - In July, Chile exported 23,800 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 40% month - on - month increase and a 9% year - on - year increase. Exports to China were 13,600 tons, a 33% month - on - month increase but a 13% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the total exports were 149,000 tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and exports to China were 96,800 tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In July, Chile shipped 10,400 tons of lithium sulfate to China, a 35% month - on - month increase and a 171% year - on - year increase [3][14]. - The mining end of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area will stop production on August 9th with no short - term resumption plan. The annual production capacity is 100,000 tons of LCE, and the monthly production of its three supporting lithium salt plants is about 9,000 tons. After the shutdown, the domestic lithium carbonate production loss is about 11% [4][18]. 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Australia is considering setting a price floor to support key mineral projects [20]. - South Korea's POSCO made a $62 million cash offer for the exploration assets of Lithium South Development in Argentina's Hombre Muerto Salar [20]. - A 20,000 - ton/year lithium carbonate project of China Salt Lake went into production and sales on July 31st. The total investment is 2.29 billion yuan, accounting for 17% of the existing lithium carbonate production capacity of China Salt Lake [20]. - In July, Chile's lithium exports to China increased slightly. It exported 13,633 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 13% year - on - year decrease but a 33% month - on - month increase, expected to arrive at Chinese ports in August - September [21]. - Ningde Times' Jianxiawo Mining Area's mining end will stop production on August 10th with no short - term resumption plan [21]. 3. Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot Quotes Rebound - Lithium concentrate spot quotes rebounded [22] 3.2 Lithium Salt: The Futures Market Rebounds Strongly Again - The lithium salt futures market rebounded strongly again [24] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Rise Slightly - The quotes of downstream intermediates rose slightly [37] 3.4 Terminal: China's New Energy Vehicle Inventory Continued to Decline in June - China's new energy vehicle inventory continued to decline in June [43]