雅化集团 20260106 摘要 雅化集团预计 2024 年锂产品出货量超过 20 万吨，并规划 2026 年达到 230 万吨，对应 35 万吨锂精矿规模，力争满产。公司正推进核心矿区 采矿选矿，勘探外围矿区，并成立非洲资源找矿小组，为未来产能扩张 做准备。 卡马蒂维矿山生产成本控制在 500 多美元/吨，加运费总成本约 700 多 美元/吨。降本措施包括提升品位和回收率、优化汇兑损益（控制在 5% 以内），以及建设光伏电站（预计 2025 年建成供电）。 雅化集团计划在津巴布韦建设 35 万吨级别、6 万吨硫酸锂产能的项目， 预计 2027 年建成。此举旨在应对当地政策，并显著降低目前 200-230 美元/吨的运输费用，尽管当地辅料成本可能略高。 公司有意向继续收购卡马蒂维矿山剩余 32%股权，并积极拓展非洲其他 地区锂资源，已有一些锁定标的正在考察中。同时，公司也在纳米比亚 进行初步多金属勘探。 李家沟已达产，公司将与川能动力根据市场需求和运营情况分配产量， 制定定价策略，并关注川能动力整体开发进度。预计 2026 年李家沟将 全面达产，储量有望从 100 多万吨提升到 200 多万吨。 Q&A 请介 ...

预期分歧仍存， 关注产业面动态 碳酸锂月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 曾宇轲（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 03 供给端 06 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 期现市场：12月5日，五矿钢联碳酸锂现货指数（MMLC）早盘报90869元，周跌2.36%，月涨9%。MMLC电池级碳酸锂均价为93300元。同日广期 所LC2605收盘价92160元，本周跌4.42%。 ◆ 供给：12月4日，SMM国内碳酸锂周度产量报21939吨，环比增0.3%。2025年11月国内碳酸锂产量95350吨，环比增3.3%，同比增48.7%，前11 月累计同比增43.7%。2025年11月智利碳酸锂出口数量为1.8万吨，环比减少28%，其中出口至中国的量1.47万吨，环比减少9%。11月智利出 口硫酸锂10132吨，全部出口至中国，环比增长493%。 ◆ 需求：据乘联分会初步统计，11月1-30日，全国乘用车市场零售226.3万辆，同比去年同期下降7%，较上月增长 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The decline in the lithium carbonate futures market on the day was mainly affected by the expected weakening of consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end. Short - term inventory continued to be depleted, but the depletion rate slowed down significantly. The resumption of production at the mine end is advancing, and lithium salt supply has increased significantly. There are significant differences in the consumption forecast for the first quarter, with a predicted decrease in the power battery segment and high - level maintenance in the energy storage segment. Short - term interval operation is recommended for single - side trading [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 3, 2025, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 96,560 yuan/ton and closed at 93,660 yuan/ton, with a - 2.82% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 643,323 lots, and the open interest was 562,836 lots (the previous day's open interest was 552,239 lots). The current basis was - 1,970 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 9,652 lots, a change of 660 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,500 - 96,200 yuan/ton, a - 50 yuan/ton change from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,000 - 92,800 yuan/ton, also a - 50 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,205 US dollars/ton, a - 10 US dollars/ton change from the previous day. The actual transaction prices in the market were mostly concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term contract negotiations between upstream and downstream enterprises are ongoing, with the focus on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume [2]. - It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In December, new energy vehicle sales are expected to be strong, the energy storage market will continue to have strong supply and demand, and the supply shortage pattern remains. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain high in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. Overall, lithium carbonate inventory is expected to continue to be depleted in December, but the depletion rate will slow down compared to November [2]. - In November 2025, Chile exported 18,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 28% month - on - month decrease; the volume exported to China was 14,700 tons, a 9% month - on - month decrease. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 207,400 tons of lithium carbonate, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and the volume exported to China was 151,800 tons, a 15% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, Chile exported 10,132 tons of lithium sulfate, all to China, a 493% month - on - month increase. From January to November 2025, Chile exported a total of 82,000 tons of lithium sulfate, a 33% year - on - year increase [3]. Strategy - Single - side: Short - term interval operation [4] - Cross - period: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin Securities indicates that the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.216 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.59% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company’s net profit for the first three quarters reached 4.216 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 39.59% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Project Developments - The Pomalaa wet process project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal, has commenced construction [1] - The Sorowako project, with an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of nickel metal, is progressing smoothly in its preliminary preparations [1] Group 3: Resource and Cost Management - The Arcadia lithium mine's resource reserves have increased to 2.45 million tons, with an improved grade of 1.34% due to additional exploration [1] - The lithium sulfate project, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons, has entered the equipment installation phase and is expected to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt costs [1] Group 4: Material Supply and Partnerships - The first phase of the 50,000-ton ternary precursor project by Huaneng Indonesia has achieved bulk supply [1] - The first phase of the 25,000-ton cathode project in Hungary is progressing smoothly and is expected to be completed within the year [1] - The company has signed a long-term agreement with LG Energy, enhancing its competitiveness in lithium battery materials [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (11/03 - 11/07), lithium salt prices showed a strong oscillation. The downstream demand remains strong, and the inventory reduction rhythm is accelerating. However, the supply of Chilean lithium salt shipments and Australian ore exports has increased marginally, and domestic lithium salt resources are also expanding production simultaneously. In the short - term, it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the medium - term, the power demand is expected to weaken from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year, and a mid - term high - selling short - selling strategy can be considered [2][4][24] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Chile's Shipment Increased Significantly in October, and the Market's Game on Supply Intensified - **Price Changes**: Last week, LC2511 closed at 80,500 yuan/ton, up 1.5% month - on - month; LC2601 closed at 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1.9% month - on - month. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices were 80,400 and 78,200 yuan/ton respectively, down 0.2% month - on - month. The price of lithium hydroxide remained stable. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide was at a discount to the battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the discount widened by 0.05 million yuan to 0.48 million yuan/ton [2][14] - **Chilean Shipment Data**: In October, Chile exported 27,600 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, up 50% month - on - month and 28% year - on - year. Exports to China were 16,200 tons, up 46% month - on - month and down 4% year - on - year. From January to October, the total export was 215,000 tons, down 0.7% year - on - year, with 137,000 tons to China, down 15% year - on - year. In October, the shipment of lithium sulfate to China was 1,700 tons (about 854 tons LCE), down 64% month - on - month and 80% year - on - year. From January to October, the total shipment was 72,000 tons (36,000 tons LCE), up 81% year - on - year [3][16] - **Market Analysis**: The release of the assessment report of the mining right transfer income of Jianxiawo may indicate that the resumption process is progressing smoothly, but the resumption time is still uncertain. The short - term market is expected to oscillate widely, and a mid - term high - selling short - selling strategy can be considered [4][24] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - **Salt Lake Co., Ltd.**: Plans to produce 43,000 tons of lithium carbonate in 2025, and a 40,000 - ton lithium salt project was officially put into operation at the end of September [25] - **Hainan Mining Co., Ltd.**: The first batch of 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate from the Buguni lithium mine was shipped on October 14, and is expected to be transported back to China early next year. The company enjoys tax incentives and policy support [25] - **Jiangxi Natural Resources Department**: Released the public notice of the assessment report of the mining right transfer income of Jianxiawo, including resource utilization, reserves, technical indicators, and the assessment value of the mining right transfer income [26] - **TrendForce**: Predicts that the global demand for solid - state batteries will reach 740GWh in 2035 [26] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.1 Resource End: Lithium Concentrate Spot is Strong - Lithium concentrate spot prices are showing a relatively strong trend, but specific data is not elaborated in the text [27] 3.2 Lithium Salt: The Game of Resumption Disturbance Intensifies - The price of lithium salt futures and spot shows certain changes. The resumption of production in mica projects and the increase in supply from Chile and Australia have an impact on the market, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [24] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Ternary and Lithium Cobaltate Continue to be Strong - Ternary materials and lithium cobaltate prices continue to show a strong trend, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate and related products are relatively stable [40][41][44][45] 3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%, indicating strong demand in the terminal market [47]

Summary of Zhongmin Resources Conference Call Company Overview - Zhongmin Resources reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 204 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 revenue of 1.551 billion yuan and a net profit of 115 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 58% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [2][4][7]. Financial Performance - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, were 18.186 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.77%. However, net assets attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.38% to 12.013 billion yuan [2][5]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 492 million yuan, with Q3 alone contributing 844 million yuan, driven by sales of lithium salt, lithium concentrate, and copper smelting products [8]. - Investment cash flow was negative at 535 million yuan, primarily due to construction expenditures for the Bijita and Kawonda projects. Financing cash flow was positive at 783 million yuan, mainly from overseas bank loans [8]. Lithium and Copper Production - In the lithium battery new energy sector, the company produced 256,000 tons of spodumene concentrate and 31,400 tons of lithium salt in the first three quarters, with sales of 30,500 tons of lithium salt [9]. - The CIF cost for spodumene from the Bijita mine was approximately 500 USD/ton, while the total cost for lithium carbonate was around 70,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The salt business generated revenue of 919 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with a gross profit of 652 million yuan, up 24% [3][9]. Project Updates - The company closed the Namibia Chumeib smelting plant in August, incurring a severance cost of 6 million USD and a total loss of approximately 50 million yuan [4][10]. - The Zambia Copper Mountain open-pit stripping project completed 80% of its annual plan, and the first rotary kiln of the Namibia multi-metal recycling project is expected to be operational next month [10][11]. - A technical upgrade of the 25,000-ton production line in Jiangxi is expected to be completed in December, aiming to reduce processing costs by 1,000 to 2,000 yuan/ton [12]. Market Demand and Future Plans - There is strong demand in overseas markets for rhenium-containing products, prompting the company to expedite the production line [13]. - The lithium sulfate production line in Zimbabwe is being accelerated, with a specific timeline expected by the end of 2025 [15]. - The company holds over 200,000 tons of lithium concentrate inventory, including 180,000 tons of spodumene and 15,000 tons of technical-grade lepidolite [14]. Strategic Considerations - The company is focusing on small mines with high potential but unclear resources, leveraging its exploration capabilities [25]. - Plans for the copper and other projects include starting production in 2026, with a target of 50,000 tons of cathode copper by Q1 2027 [22][23]. Risks and Challenges - The closure of the Namibia smelting plant is expected to result in monthly depreciation costs of over 20,000 USD and additional severance costs, leading to an anticipated loss of about 5 million USD in Q4 [21]. - The company is monitoring lithium carbonate prices and is prepared to resume production of lepidolite if prices remain above 80,000 yuan [24]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, production metrics, project updates, market demand, strategic considerations, and associated risks.

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong performance of Huayou Cobalt in Q3 2025, driven by integrated operations and rising cobalt prices, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability and growth potential [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Huayou Cobalt reported revenue of 58.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.22 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 4.01 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.9% increase [4]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 21.74 billion yuan, marking a 40.9% year-on-year growth and a 12.4% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.505 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Operational Highlights - The integrated operational advantages are evident, with nickel wet-process capacity gradually being released, leading to sustained overproduction. In the first half of 2025, MHP shipments reached approximately 120,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, with expectations for continued overproduction in Q3 [5]. - Cobalt prices have shown significant recovery, with average prices in China for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 being 192,000 yuan/ton, 239,000 yuan/ton, and 267,000 yuan/ton respectively, primarily benefiting from the export ban on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Project Developments - The Pomalaa project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal, has commenced construction, while the Sorowako project, with a capacity of 60,000 tons, is progressing well [6]. - A lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe, expected to produce 50,000 tons annually, is in the equipment installation phase and is anticipated to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt production costs [6]. - The first phase of the ternary precursor project in Indonesia, with a capacity of 50,000 tons, has achieved bulk supply, and the first phase of the cathode material project in Hungary, with a capacity of 25,000 tons, is expected to be completed within the year [6]. Market Outlook - The cobalt export quota system from the Democratic Republic of Congo, effective from October 16, 2025, allows for exports of 36,250 tons in Q4 2025 and a total of 96,600 tons from 2026 to 2027. This change is expected to support cobalt prices in the coming years [7]. - Based on the estimated cobalt production reduction of 141,600 tons during the export ban period, and assuming stable demand, the cobalt supply-demand balance for 2025-2027 is projected to be -75,000 tons, -33,000 tons, and -33,000 tons respectively, indicating a potential supply deficit [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong performance of Huayou Cobalt in Q3 2025, driven by integrated operations and rising cobalt prices, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability and growth potential [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Huayou Cobalt reported revenue of 58.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.22 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 4.01 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.9% increase [4]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 21.74 billion yuan, marking a 40.9% year-on-year growth and a 12.4% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.505 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Operational Highlights - The integrated operational advantages are evident, with nickel wet-process capacity gradually being released, leading to sustained overproduction. In the first half of 2025, MHP shipments reached approximately 120,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, with expectations for continued overproduction in Q3 [5]. - Cobalt prices have shown significant recovery, with average prices in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 being 192,000, 239,000, and 267,000 yuan per ton, respectively, primarily benefiting from the export ban on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Project Developments - The Pomalaa project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal, has commenced construction, while the Sorowako project, with a capacity of 60,000 tons, is progressing well [6]. - A lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe, expected to produce 50,000 tons annually, is in the equipment installation phase and is anticipated to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt production costs [6]. - The first phase of the ternary precursor project in Indonesia, with a capacity of 50,000 tons, has achieved bulk supply, and the first phase of the cathode material project in Hungary, with a capacity of 25,000 tons, is expected to be completed within the year [6]. Market Outlook - The cobalt export quota system from the Democratic Republic of Congo, effective from October 16, 2025, allows for exports of 3,625 tons, 7,250 tons, and 7,250 tons for the last quarter of 2025, with a total export capacity of 96,600 tons from 2026 to 2027 [7]. - Based on the 2024 cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of Congo, there is an estimated reduction of 141,600 tons in supply from February 22 to October 15, 2025. Assuming stable demand, the cobalt supply-demand balance for 2025-2027 is projected to be -75,000 tons, -33,000 tons, and -33,000 tons, respectively [7].

1. Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 73,200 yuan/ton and closed at 73,340 yuan/ton, with a 0.27% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 361,093 lots, and the open interest was 229,022 lots, down from 231,964 lots the previous trading day. The current basis was 170 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 42,379 lots, a change of 670 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,900 - 74,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,700 - 71,900 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 830 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. After the holiday, the market trading was light, and both upstream and downstream were on the sidelines. New production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and the total output of lithium carbonate in October was expected to have growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, although the supply increased steadily in October, a stage of tight supply was formed [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 119 tons to 20,635 tons. The output from spodumene production increased slightly, while the output from mica production decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,024 tons to 134,801 tons. The inventory of smelters increased, while the inventory in the intermediate links and downstream decreased [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 8,367 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 4,307 tons of LCE), all to China, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 9% and 21% respectively. The average export price was 3,249 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 561% and 45% respectively. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 62,000 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 31,900 tons of LCE), a year - on - year increase of 127% (an increase of 34,700 tons) [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 13% and 6% respectively. The average export price was 8,704 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 15% and 2% respectively. Among them, the amount exported to China was 11,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1,881 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%), the amount exported to Japan was 370 tons, and the amount exported to South Korea was 3,999 tons. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% (a decrease of 15,300 tons). The amount exported to China was 120,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (a decrease of 23,900 tons), the amount exported to Japan was 4,801 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%, and the amount exported to South Korea was 29,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 76% [2]. - On October 9, 2025, Cailian Press reported that Zangge Mining (000408.SZ) announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., recently received the Certificate of Real Estate Right (Mining Right) and the Mining License issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China. The mine is the Qarhan Salt Lake Potash - Magnesium Mine of Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., with an area of 724.3493 square kilometers and a mining depth from 2,680 meters to 2,658 meters above sea level. The mining minerals include the main mineral of potash salt, and the associated minerals of salt, magnesium salt, lithium ore, and boron ore [3]. 2. Strategy - The futures market opened high and closed low on the day. There was some support during the consumption peak season. The short - term supply - demand pattern was good, and the inventory continued to decline, providing some support to the market. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbances at the mine end had weakened to some extent. If the mines were restarted later and consumption weakened, the market might decline [4]. - Unilateral: In the short term, conduct range - bound operations and sell hedges on rallies [4]. - There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that lithium carbonate is experiencing accelerated inventory reduction and is in an oscillatory state. It presents detailed fundamental data of lithium carbonate and relevant macro and industry news [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 73,340, with a change of 540 compared to T - 1. The trading volume is 361,093, and the open interest is 229,022. For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 73,440, the trading volume is 134,679, and the open interest is 183,404. The warehouse receipt volume is 42,379 [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 843, and that of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,835. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,550, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,300 [1]. - **Lithium Salt and Related Product Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 78,550, and that of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) is 9,450. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640, and that of ternary materials also shows different price levels and changes [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of lithium carbonate is 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons from last week. The industry inventory is 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons from last week [1]. - **Chilean Exports**: In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 13% and 6% respectively. The export average price is 8,704 US dollars per ton, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 15% and 2% respectively. It also exported 8,367 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 4,307 tons of LCE) to China [1][3]. - **Policy News**: The three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology adjusted the technical requirements for new - energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 to 2027, raising the technical threshold. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs implemented export controls on lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].