Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin Securities indicates that the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.216 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.59% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company’s net profit for the first three quarters reached 4.216 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 39.59% compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Project Developments - The Pomalaa wet process project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal, has commenced construction [1] - The Sorowako project, with an annual production capacity of 60,000 tons of nickel metal, is progressing smoothly in its preliminary preparations [1] Group 3: Resource and Cost Management - The Arcadia lithium mine's resource reserves have increased to 2.45 million tons, with an improved grade of 1.34% due to additional exploration [1] - The lithium sulfate project, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons, has entered the equipment installation phase and is expected to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt costs [1] Group 4: Material Supply and Partnerships - The first phase of the 50,000-ton ternary precursor project by Huaneng Indonesia has achieved bulk supply [1] - The first phase of the 25,000-ton cathode project in Hungary is progressing smoothly and is expected to be completed within the year [1] - The company has signed a long-term agreement with LG Energy, enhancing its competitiveness in lithium battery materials [1]

周度报告—碳酸锂 智利 10 月发运回升，市场对供应博弈加剧 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 碳酸锂：震荡 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 | 11 | 月 | 9 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★智利 10 月发运明显回升，市场对供应博弈加剧 上周（11/03-11/07）锂盐价格偏强震荡。LC2511 收盘价环比+1.5% 至 8.05 万元/吨，LC2601 收盘价环比+1.9%至 8.23 万元/吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比-0.2%至 8.04、7.82 万元/吨。 氢氧化锂价格持稳，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价 分别为 7.56、8.05 万元/吨。电工价差维持 0.22 万元/吨。电池级 氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比走阔至 0.48 万元/吨。 据智利海关，10 月智利共出口碳酸锂及氢氧化锂 2.76 万吨，环 比+50%，同比+28%；其中对中国出口 1.62 万吨，环比+46%， 同比-4%，对应 10 月到港量环比预计回升。1-10 ...

Summary of Zhongmin Resources Conference Call Company Overview - Zhongmin Resources reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 204 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 revenue of 1.551 billion yuan and a net profit of 115 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 58% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [2][4][7]. Financial Performance - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, were 18.186 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.77%. However, net assets attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.38% to 12.013 billion yuan [2][5]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for the first three quarters was 492 million yuan, with Q3 alone contributing 844 million yuan, driven by sales of lithium salt, lithium concentrate, and copper smelting products [8]. - Investment cash flow was negative at 535 million yuan, primarily due to construction expenditures for the Bijita and Kawonda projects. Financing cash flow was positive at 783 million yuan, mainly from overseas bank loans [8]. Lithium and Copper Production - In the lithium battery new energy sector, the company produced 256,000 tons of spodumene concentrate and 31,400 tons of lithium salt in the first three quarters, with sales of 30,500 tons of lithium salt [9]. - The CIF cost for spodumene from the Bijita mine was approximately 500 USD/ton, while the total cost for lithium carbonate was around 70,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The salt business generated revenue of 919 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26%, with a gross profit of 652 million yuan, up 24% [3][9]. Project Updates - The company closed the Namibia Chumeib smelting plant in August, incurring a severance cost of 6 million USD and a total loss of approximately 50 million yuan [4][10]. - The Zambia Copper Mountain open-pit stripping project completed 80% of its annual plan, and the first rotary kiln of the Namibia multi-metal recycling project is expected to be operational next month [10][11]. - A technical upgrade of the 25,000-ton production line in Jiangxi is expected to be completed in December, aiming to reduce processing costs by 1,000 to 2,000 yuan/ton [12]. Market Demand and Future Plans - There is strong demand in overseas markets for rhenium-containing products, prompting the company to expedite the production line [13]. - The lithium sulfate production line in Zimbabwe is being accelerated, with a specific timeline expected by the end of 2025 [15]. - The company holds over 200,000 tons of lithium concentrate inventory, including 180,000 tons of spodumene and 15,000 tons of technical-grade lepidolite [14]. Strategic Considerations - The company is focusing on small mines with high potential but unclear resources, leveraging its exploration capabilities [25]. - Plans for the copper and other projects include starting production in 2026, with a target of 50,000 tons of cathode copper by Q1 2027 [22][23]. Risks and Challenges - The closure of the Namibia smelting plant is expected to result in monthly depreciation costs of over 20,000 USD and additional severance costs, leading to an anticipated loss of about 5 million USD in Q4 [21]. - The company is monitoring lithium carbonate prices and is prepared to resume production of lepidolite if prices remain above 80,000 yuan [24]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's financial performance, production metrics, project updates, market demand, strategic considerations, and associated risks.

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong performance of Huayou Cobalt in Q3 2025, driven by integrated operations and rising cobalt prices, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability and growth potential [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Huayou Cobalt reported revenue of 58.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.22 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 4.01 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.9% increase [4]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 21.74 billion yuan, marking a 40.9% year-on-year growth and a 12.4% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.505 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Operational Highlights - The integrated operational advantages are evident, with nickel wet-process capacity gradually being released, leading to sustained overproduction. In the first half of 2025, MHP shipments reached approximately 120,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, with expectations for continued overproduction in Q3 [5]. - Cobalt prices have shown significant recovery, with average prices in China for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 being 192,000 yuan/ton, 239,000 yuan/ton, and 267,000 yuan/ton respectively, primarily benefiting from the export ban on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Project Developments - The Pomalaa project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal, has commenced construction, while the Sorowako project, with a capacity of 60,000 tons, is progressing well [6]. - A lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe, expected to produce 50,000 tons annually, is in the equipment installation phase and is anticipated to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt production costs [6]. - The first phase of the ternary precursor project in Indonesia, with a capacity of 50,000 tons, has achieved bulk supply, and the first phase of the cathode material project in Hungary, with a capacity of 25,000 tons, is expected to be completed within the year [6]. Market Outlook - The cobalt export quota system from the Democratic Republic of Congo, effective from October 16, 2025, allows for exports of 36,250 tons in Q4 2025 and a total of 96,600 tons from 2026 to 2027. This change is expected to support cobalt prices in the coming years [7]. - Based on the estimated cobalt production reduction of 141,600 tons during the export ban period, and assuming stable demand, the cobalt supply-demand balance for 2025-2027 is projected to be -75,000 tons, -33,000 tons, and -33,000 tons respectively, indicating a potential supply deficit [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong performance of Huayou Cobalt in Q3 2025, driven by integrated operations and rising cobalt prices, indicating a positive outlook for the company's profitability and growth potential [4][5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Huayou Cobalt reported revenue of 58.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.22 billion yuan, up 39.6% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 4.01 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.9% increase [4]. - In Q3 2025, revenue reached 21.74 billion yuan, marking a 40.9% year-on-year growth and a 12.4% quarter-on-quarter increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.505 billion yuan, up 11.5% year-on-year and 3.2% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Operational Highlights - The integrated operational advantages are evident, with nickel wet-process capacity gradually being released, leading to sustained overproduction. In the first half of 2025, MHP shipments reached approximately 120,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 40%, with expectations for continued overproduction in Q3 [5]. - Cobalt prices have shown significant recovery, with average prices in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 being 192,000, 239,000, and 267,000 yuan per ton, respectively, primarily benefiting from the export ban on cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo [5]. Project Developments - The Pomalaa project, with an annual production capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel metal, has commenced construction, while the Sorowako project, with a capacity of 60,000 tons, is progressing well [6]. - A lithium sulfate project in Zimbabwe, expected to produce 50,000 tons annually, is in the equipment installation phase and is anticipated to be completed by the end of the year, which will further reduce lithium salt production costs [6]. - The first phase of the ternary precursor project in Indonesia, with a capacity of 50,000 tons, has achieved bulk supply, and the first phase of the cathode material project in Hungary, with a capacity of 25,000 tons, is expected to be completed within the year [6]. Market Outlook - The cobalt export quota system from the Democratic Republic of Congo, effective from October 16, 2025, allows for exports of 3,625 tons, 7,250 tons, and 7,250 tons for the last quarter of 2025, with a total export capacity of 96,600 tons from 2026 to 2027 [7]. - Based on the 2024 cobalt production in the Democratic Republic of Congo, there is an estimated reduction of 141,600 tons in supply from February 22 to October 15, 2025. Assuming stable demand, the cobalt supply-demand balance for 2025-2027 is projected to be -75,000 tons, -33,000 tons, and -33,000 tons, respectively [7].

1. Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of lithium carbonate opened at 73,200 yuan/ton and closed at 73,340 yuan/ton, with a 0.27% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 361,093 lots, and the open interest was 229,022 lots, down from 231,964 lots the previous trading day. The current basis was 170 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 42,379 lots, a change of 670 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 72,900 - 74,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 70,700 - 71,900 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 830 US dollars/ton, a change of - 5 US dollars/ton from the previous day. After the holiday, the market trading was light, and both upstream and downstream were on the sidelines. New production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and the total output of lithium carbonate in October was expected to have growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the energy storage market had strong supply and demand. Overall, although the supply increased steadily in October, a stage of tight supply was formed [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 119 tons to 20,635 tons. The output from spodumene production increased slightly, while the output from mica production decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,024 tons to 134,801 tons. The inventory of smelters increased, while the inventory in the intermediate links and downstream decreased [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 8,367 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 4,307 tons of LCE), all to China, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 9% and 21% respectively. The average export price was 3,249 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 561% and 45% respectively. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 62,000 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 31,900 tons of LCE), a year - on - year increase of 127% (an increase of 34,700 tons) [2]. - In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 13% and 6% respectively. The average export price was 8,704 US dollars/ton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases of 15% and 2% respectively. Among them, the amount exported to China was 11,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 1,881 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%), the amount exported to Japan was 370 tons, and the amount exported to South Korea was 3,999 tons. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% (a decrease of 15,300 tons). The amount exported to China was 120,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (a decrease of 23,900 tons), the amount exported to Japan was 4,801 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36%, and the amount exported to South Korea was 29,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 76% [2]. - On October 9, 2025, Cailian Press reported that Zangge Mining (000408.SZ) announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., recently received the Certificate of Real Estate Right (Mining Right) and the Mining License issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources of the People's Republic of China. The mine is the Qarhan Salt Lake Potash - Magnesium Mine of Golmud Zangge Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd., with an area of 724.3493 square kilometers and a mining depth from 2,680 meters to 2,658 meters above sea level. The mining minerals include the main mineral of potash salt, and the associated minerals of salt, magnesium salt, lithium ore, and boron ore [3]. 2. Strategy - The futures market opened high and closed low on the day. There was some support during the consumption peak season. The short - term supply - demand pattern was good, and the inventory continued to decline, providing some support to the market. It was expected that the market would fluctuate in the short term. The policy disturbances at the mine end had weakened to some extent. If the mines were restarted later and consumption weakened, the market might decline [4]. - Unilateral: In the short term, conduct range - bound operations and sell hedges on rallies [4]. - There were no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that lithium carbonate is experiencing accelerated inventory reduction and is in an oscillatory state. It presents detailed fundamental data of lithium carbonate and relevant macro and industry news [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 73,340, with a change of 540 compared to T - 1. The trading volume is 361,093, and the open interest is 229,022. For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 73,440, the trading volume is 134,679, and the open interest is 183,404. The warehouse receipt volume is 42,379 [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 843, and that of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,835. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,550, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,300 [1]. - **Lithium Salt and Related Product Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) is 78,550, and that of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) is 9,450. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 33,640, and that of ternary materials also shows different price levels and changes [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Production and Inventory**: This week, the production of lithium carbonate is 20,635 tons, an increase of 119 tons from last week. The industry inventory is 134,801 tons, a decrease of 2,024 tons from last week [1]. - **Chilean Exports**: In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 13% and 6% respectively. The export average price is 8,704 US dollars per ton, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 15% and 2% respectively. It also exported 8,367 tons of lithium sulfate (equivalent to about 4,307 tons of LCE) to China [1][3]. - **Policy News**: The three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology adjusted the technical requirements for new - energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 to 2027, raising the technical threshold. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs implemented export controls on lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term prices of lithium carbonate are supported by destocking, but it's difficult to drive prices up independently. In the long - term, the supply side is expected to remain high or increase, while the demand side faces downward pressure [2][17] - It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities when prices are high and the reverse spread opportunity between LC2511 and LC2512 [3][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chile's September Shipment Continued to Decline, and Destocking Supported Short - term Prices - Before the holiday (09/22 - 09/30), lithium salt prices showed a weak oscillation. LC2510's closing price dropped 1.4% month - on - month to 72,700 yuan/ton, and LC2511's closing price dropped 1.6% month - on - month to 72,800 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased 0.1% month - on - month to 73,600 and 71,300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased within the week. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micronized battery - grade lithium hydroxide dropped 0.6% and 0.5% month - on - month to 73,600 and 78,600 yuan/ton respectively. The electric - industrial price difference remained flat at 2,300 yuan/ton, and the premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to near 0 [1][10] - In September, Chile exported a total of 18,300 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 9% month - on - month and 4% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 11,100 tons, a 15% month - on - month and 33% year - on - year decrease, and the arrival volume in October is expected to continue to decline. From January to September, Chile exported a total of 188,000 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 4% year - on - year decrease. Exports to China were 121,000 tons, a 17% year - on - year decrease. In terms of lithium sulfate, in September, Chile shipped 8,400 tons (4,200 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a 21% month - on - month and 9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, a total of 70,000 tons (35,000 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate were shipped to China, a 101% year - on - year increase [2][11] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project started trial production and produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products, which will increase the company's lithium salt production capacity [18] - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton battery - grade lithium hydroxide project was officially completed and put into operation [18] - Core Lithium terminated the last off - take agreement of the Finniss lithium project, paying $2 million to release the future production capacity of the project [18] - Liontown Resources reached an agreement with Tesla to modify the pricing mechanism in the long - term off - take agreement [19] - The US government acquired a 5% stake in Lithium Americas and a 5% stake in its joint project with General Motors, and Lithium Americas will draw $435 million from a previously announced $2.26 billion loan [19] - Eight lithium mines in Yichun have submitted relevant reports, and the possibility of suspension of production of producing mines is low [20][21] 3.3 Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Remained Stable - The spot price of lithium concentrate remained stable, with the average spot price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) at $858/ton, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease [11] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Market Was Weakly Oscillating - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot showed a weak oscillation. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 decreased month - on - month, while the average spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased slightly. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased [1][10][11] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Declined - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed different degrees of changes, with some prices rising slightly and some remaining stable [11] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August Further Increased - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in power batteries further increased [46]

Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests paying attention to changes in mining certificates and recommends light - position operations before the holiday for lithium carbonate [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: The 2511 contract's closing price was 73,920, with a change of 1,040 compared to T - 1; volume was 465,591, down 15,429 from T - 1; and open interest was 251,749, up 3,109 from T - 1. The 2601 contract's closing price was 73,900, up 1,080 from T - 1; volume was 130,921, up 20,909 from T - 1; and open interest was 174,714, up 720 from T - 1 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Basis**: The warehouse receipt volume was 41,119, up 790 from T - 1. The basis of spot - 2511 was - 370, and spot - 2601 was - 350 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 858, up 1 from T - 1; lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,875, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550, down 50 from T - 1; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300, down 50 from T - 1 [1]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,456 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary in Zimbabwe is investing $400 million to build a lithium sulfate processing plant, which is in the final construction phase and will be completed before the Zimbabwean government's lithium concentrate export ban in January 2027 [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on developing and utilizing lithium battery raw materials, with a current mining capacity of 4.18 million tons per year, ensuring stable raw material supply for the smelting process [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company plans to establish lithium sulfate production capacity in Africa to enhance operational efficiency and reduce transportation costs, which is part of a strategy for industry chain collaboration [1] - The company aims to continuously optimize the stability and economic efficiency of the lithium battery raw material supply chain by integrating domestic and international resources and capacity allocation in response to market and policy changes [1]