近来，锂电池核心原材料碳酸锂涨势迅猛，从年中5.8万元/吨的历史低点强势回升，四季度突破10万元/ 吨关口，12月期货主力合约更攀升至超13万元/吨高位，带动锂电产业链从下游需求到上游材料的全面 回暖，推动行业走出此前深度调整周期，正式迈入复苏提速通道。 本轮锂电产业复苏背后是多重核心驱动力的共振。全球储能需求超预期放量，叠加动力电池出货量增长 预期持续向好下，当前锂电产业链供给端呈现趋紧态势，产业链盈利空间持续修复，行业格局从"以价 换量"的内卷模式转向高质量发展新阶段。据Global Market Insights测算，全球储能系统市场规模2024年 已站上6687亿美元基点，预计2034年将飙升至5.12万亿美元，2025-2034年CAGR高达21.7%；而Fortune Business Insights研究指出，2025年，全球动力电池市场规模为822.1亿美元，预计该市场将从2026年的 1010.2亿美元增长到2034年的5252.9亿美元，预测期内CAGR为22.88%。 面对锂电产业高速增长的战略机遇，西磁科技已构建起覆盖普通永磁除铁设备、自动永磁除铁设备、电 磁除铁设备的全品类产品线，具 ...

Group 1 - The Ningde City lithium battery new energy industry promotion conference was held on December 28, 2025, aiming to enhance the competitiveness and supply chain resilience of the lithium battery industry [1] - During the signing ceremony, 10 projects were signed with a total investment of 7.47 billion and an expected annual output value of 12.14 billion [1] - Four key focus areas for the lithium battery sector in 2026 include: 1) Demand outlook driven by the growth of new energy vehicles and increased battery capacity, particularly in commercial vehicles [1] 2) Potential intensification of supply-demand balance due to seasonal peaks [1] 3) Limited expansion plans from companies due to general profitability and cash flow issues [1] 4) Price increase potential in 2026, considering current pricing and profitability [1] Group 2 - Guojin Securities believes that the lithium supply will establish a recovery through the excess cycle, with a significant rebound expected in 2026 [2] - The inventory cycle has transitioned from two years of destocking to an active restocking phase, with fundamentals indicating a bottoming out in 2024 and a notable recovery in 2026 [2] - The core logic is driven by terminal demand growth from AI and energy storage, while supply expansion slows due to reduced capital expenditures, leading to a supply-demand mismatch [2]

Core Insights - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a resurgence driven by demand and price increases, highlighted by significant announcements from key players in the supply chain [1][2][4] Group 1: Long-term Agreements and Expansion - Shengxin Lithium Energy has signed a five-year cooperation framework agreement with Huayou Holding Group to supply up to 221,400 tons of lithium salt products from 2026 to 2030, indicating strong future demand expectations [2][3] - The estimated value of this long-term agreement is approximately 17.2 billion yuan, based on current lithium prices, which serves as a substantial performance anchor for Shengxin Lithium Energy [2] - Xiamen Tungsten's subsidiary plans to invest 1.525 billion yuan to establish a project with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of high-performance battery materials, aiming to capture the high-end automotive market [1][3] Group 2: Demand Drivers - The demand for lithium batteries is being driven by the rapid growth of the electric vehicle market, with sales in China reaching approximately 9.293 million units in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25% [5] - The energy storage sector is also experiencing explosive growth, with lithium battery shipments reaching 430 GWh in the first three quarters of 2025, exceeding 30% of the total for 2024 [5][6] - The dual demand from both power batteries and energy storage is providing a broad market depth for the entire lithium battery supply chain, indicating a robust growth trajectory [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent signing of long-term agreements by various companies, including Tianqi Materials, reflects a strong expectation of continued growth in downstream demand [4] - The lithium battery material prices have seen a significant rebound after a period of decline, with supply constraints emerging as demand continues to rise [6] - Analysts suggest that the capital expenditures of leading battery manufacturers are a leading indicator of industry health, with a notable recovery observed in 2025 [6]