近来，锂电池核心原材料碳酸锂涨势迅猛，从年中5.8万元/吨的历史低点强势回升，四季度突破10万元/ 吨关口，12月期货主力合约更攀升至超13万元/吨高位，带动锂电产业链从下游需求到上游材料的全面 回暖，推动行业走出此前深度调整周期，正式迈入复苏提速通道。 本轮锂电产业复苏背后是多重核心驱动力的共振。全球储能需求超预期放量，叠加动力电池出货量增长 预期持续向好下，当前锂电产业链供给端呈现趋紧态势，产业链盈利空间持续修复，行业格局从"以价 换量"的内卷模式转向高质量发展新阶段。据Global Market Insights测算，全球储能系统市场规模2024年 已站上6687亿美元基点，预计2034年将飙升至5.12万亿美元，2025-2034年CAGR高达21.7%；而Fortune Business Insights研究指出，2025年，全球动力电池市场规模为822.1亿美元，预计该市场将从2026年的 1010.2亿美元增长到2034年的5252.9亿美元，预测期内CAGR为22.88%。 面对锂电产业高速增长的战略机遇，西磁科技已构建起覆盖普通永磁除铁设备、自动永磁除铁设备、电 磁除铁设备的全品类产品线，具 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 通胀回归——2026 年国内经济展望 就 2026 年而言，随着"反内卷"政策的强力纠偏，猪周期与库存周期的自然 触底，财政发力的累积效应显现，中国经济将迎来"通胀回归、盈利改善"， 经济发展将从"增速情结"转向"质量优先"，政策重心从规模扩张转向提升 发展的含金量。"反内卷"代表供给侧的理性回归，通过限制恶性竞争修复受 损的资产负债表；"猪油共振"代表价格周期的自然反转，猪周期触底回升与 原油价格中枢的坚挺将共同推动 CPI 与 PPI 剪刀差收敛，进而带动 GDP 平减 指数在 2026 年下半年转正。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《2026 年 CPI 和 PPI 展望— —"猪油"共振的可能性推 演》2025-11-28 | 张静静 | S1090522050003 | zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | | 罗丹 | S1090524070004 | luodan7@cmschina.com.cn | | 赵兴举 | 研究助理 | zhaoxingju@cmschina. ...

Core Insights - The "2025 Chengdu International Forum" concluded in Guangzhou, focusing on the theme of "World Economic Development Trends under Trade and Tariff Conflicts" [7] - Participants emphasized the importance of managing risks associated with the "technology gap" and integrating into the digital age, alongside addressing traditional economic risks [9] Group 1: Economic Risks and Trade Policies - Romano Prodi, former Prime Minister of Italy, noted that many trade policies are driven by internal political demands rather than economic logic, increasing unpredictability in global supply chains [8] - Kim Campbell, former Prime Minister of Canada, highlighted the negative impact of tariff policies on global supply chains and free trade, stressing the need for better information sharing among nations [8] - Several attendees agreed that the ability to manage risks is directly linked to the stability and sustainability of development [9] Group 2: Development Paradigm Shift - The forum discussed the need for a transformation in development paradigms, moving away from merely pursuing growth speed and scale towards sustainable development that emphasizes endogenous motivation and shared welfare [10] - María Fernanda Espinosa, former Foreign Minister of Ecuador, called for reforms in economic governance institutions to ensure fair resource distribution and amplify the voices of developing countries [10] - Michelle Bachelet, former President of Chile, emphasized the necessity of systemic approaches to address global risks like climate change and financial crises, advocating for cooperation over confrontation [10][11] Group 3: Technological Integration and Opportunities - Jorge Quiroga, former President of Bolivia, warned that developing countries risk marginalization in the new technology wave, particularly in AI and digital economy sectors [9] - Xue Lan, a senior professor at Tsinghua University, pointed out that China's open-source model could help smaller countries leverage AI advancements at lower costs [9] - The forum highlighted the potential for China to lead in global development trends by investing in long-term development and technology transfer to assist developing nations [9] Group 4: International Cooperation and Globalization - Prodi emphasized the importance of China-EU cooperation in stabilizing the global economy amidst rising political tensions and trade conflicts [12] - Li Cheng, a professor at the University of Hong Kong, discussed the rise of unilateralism and its implications for global trade, arguing that the U.S. approach to tariffs has backfired [14] - Espinosa noted that globalization is not over but is entering a "recalibration" phase, requiring nations to reassess their interdependence and governance strategies [16]

| 上证指数 | 3885.92 | -45.13 | -1.15% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | | | | | 创业板指 | 2964.39 | -77.95 | -2.56% | | 399006 | | | | | 深证成指 | 12709.78 | -271.04 | -2.09% | | 399001 | | | | | 科创50 | 1298.67 | -29.52 | -2.22% | | 000688 | | | | | 北证50 | 1425.77 | -19.77 | -1.37% | | 899050 | | | | | 沪深300 | 4498.03 | -66.92 | -1.47% | | 000300 | | | | | 上证50 | 2980.14 | -28.15 | -0.94% | | 000016 | | | | 格隆汇11月21日｜A股主要指数走弱，沪指跌1.15%，深成指跌2.09%，创业板指跌2.56%。锂电产业 链、算力硬件、存储芯片等方向跌幅居前，沪深京三市下跌个股近4300只。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the comprehensive distribution map of the global lithium battery industry chain, detailing its components from raw materials to end applications, and highlighting major regional hubs in the industry [3]. Distribution Map Content - The distribution map measures 1.5 meters by 1 meter and intricately illustrates the entire ecosystem of the lithium battery industry, covering raw materials, four main materials, battery manufacturing, and end applications [3]. Distribution Map Acquisition - To receive the distribution map for free, individuals are required to share the article on their social media and contact the editor via WeChat [4]. Distribution Map Delivery Details - The distribution maps are being dispatched in order of registration [5]. 2026 Silicon-based Anode and Solid-state Battery Summit - The summit will focus on breakthroughs in silicon-based anodes and the future of solid-state batteries, organized by Xinluo Information, with various sponsors and partners involved [8]. Summit Schedule - The summit is scheduled for November 12-13, 2025, in Shanghai, with activities including a company visit and a welcome dinner on November 11 and 12, respectively [9]. Summit Topics - Specific topics for discussion at the summit have not been detailed in the provided content [10]. Registration Information - Interested parties can register for the summit by contacting the provided WeChat number [11].

Industry Overview - The trade tensions between the US and China have escalated, with the US considering an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, which has led to significant declines in US stock markets and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index. This situation is expected to cause a notable pullback in the A-share market, which has reached a 10-year high. However, the impact may be less severe than previous tensions in April due to the timing of policy implementations [2]. Company Performance - Taiwan's leading PCB manufacturer, Zhen Ding Technology, reported a consolidated revenue of NT$47.366 billion for Q3, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.98%. The company anticipates record performance in Q4 due to ongoing demand from IC substrates and various customer orders [3]. - ASUS announced a revenue of NT$82.6 billion for September, reflecting a 31% quarter-on-quarter and 33% year-on-year growth. The Q3 revenue reached NT$200.3 billion, marking a 7% quarter-on-quarter and 20% year-on-year increase, driven by demand for servers, graphics cards, and commercial PCs [3]. - Hengdian East Magnetic (002056.SZ) expects a net profit of between RMB 1.39 billion and RMB 1.53 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.1% to 652%. The company benefits from strong demand in the new energy vehicle and AI server sectors, as well as effective cost control in the photovoltaic market [4]. - Jihong Co. anticipates a net profit of between RMB 257 million and RMB 270 million for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 95.07% to 105.31%. The growth is attributed to the expansion of cross-border e-commerce and strategic partnerships in the packaging sector [7].

Group 1 - The 2025 Suining International Lithium Battery Industry Conference was held in Suining, Sichuan, focusing on lithium resources, liquid lithium batteries, solid-state batteries, sodium batteries, and energy storage [1] - The theme of the conference was "Lithium Towards New Quality, Intelligent Victory in the Future," attracting over 300 industry experts and representatives from various countries [1] Group 2 - China's lithium battery industry has transitioned from "industrial advantage" to "strategic advantage" under the dual carbon strategy, supporting the development of new energy systems [3] - In the first half of this year, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 6.968 million units and 6.937 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth exceeding 40% [3] - Lithium carbonate production in China reached 389,000 tons in the first half of the year, marking a 29% year-on-year increase, indicating a positive development trend in the industry [3] Group 3 - The lithium raw material industry in China faces three structural challenges: insufficient domestic resource development, complex overseas resource development risks, and price fluctuations in the industry chain [4][5] - Domestic lithium resource development has not kept pace with demand, leading to a "hard gap" in supply security [4] - The "Asian Lithium Belt" has been discovered, spanning 2,800 kilometers across four provinces, which may enhance domestic lithium supply through technological breakthroughs and policy support [4] Group 4 - The global trend of resource nationalism and tightening policies in Latin America pose challenges for Chinese enterprises in overseas investments [5] - The lithium industry has experienced significant price fluctuations over the past decade, with prices peaking at 600,000 yuan per ton in November 2022 before dropping below 60,000 yuan [5] - The current lithium industry chain is in a recovery phase, with upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors facing various challenges [5] Group 5 - The lithium raw material industry must focus on "safety, innovation, green, and collaboration" to align with national strategies and plan for the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [6] - The year 2025 is seen as a critical transition year for the lithium raw material industry, moving from "scale leadership" to "quality leadership" [6] - Industry enterprises are encouraged to integrate their development with national dual carbon goals and new industrialization layouts [6]

Core Viewpoint - SANY International is positioned as a leading player in the domestic energy equipment industry, with a diversified portfolio across mining, logistics, oil and gas, and emerging industries such as solar energy and lithium batteries [1] Mining Equipment - Global capital expenditure remains high, with China's coal production stable and steadily increasing fixed asset investment in coal mining, projected to grow from 264.8 billion yuan in 2017 to 611.8 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - SANY International's coal machinery revenue is expected to rise from 1.3 billion yuan in 2017 to 10.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34%, increasing market share from 2.0% to 8.5% [2] Logistics Equipment - China's container throughput is projected to reach 332 million TEUs in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.0% since 2010, indicating a growing market for port machinery [3] - SANY International holds a significant market share in small port machinery, with projected market shares of 68.3% for mobile cranes and 68.6% for stackers in 2024 [4] Oil and Gas Equipment & Emerging Industries - High oil prices are expected to support capital expenditure from major oil companies, with domestic "three barrels of oil" capital expenditure projected to reach 565.2 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 7.6% [5] - The solar energy sector is anticipated to see continued growth, with global new installations projected to reach 1,078 GW by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 12.6% [6] - The lithium battery sector is rapidly developing, with China's new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 12.87 million units in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 61% [6] Investment Outlook - SANY International has established a comprehensive platform covering traditional mining, port logistics, oil and gas equipment, and emerging sectors like solar and lithium batteries, with expected revenue growth from 25.8 billion yuan in 2025 to 37.34 billion yuan in 2027 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China regarding graphite used in lithium battery anodes, highlighting the U.S. Department of Commerce's preliminary anti-dumping duty of 93.5% on imported anode graphite from China, which could lead to a total estimated tariff of around 160% by December 5 [1][2][5]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The trade conflict over graphite mirrors the previous tensions over rare earth elements, characterized by a short-term "hit and talk" approach and a long-term structural confrontation [2]. - Both graphite and rare earths are strategic resources for emerging industries, with overlapping applications in sectors such as new energy, aerospace, and military [2]. - The U.S. heavily relies on imports for both graphite and rare earths, with 100% dependence on natural graphite and 90% on spherical graphite, primarily sourced from China [6]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - The anti-dumping tax applies to all anode-grade graphite materials meeting a carbon content requirement of at least 90%, covering natural, synthetic, and mixed forms [3][4]. - The U.S. producers, represented by the American Anode Materials Producers (AAAMP), argue that the current 25% tariff is insufficient to counteract the alleged dumping practices by Chinese suppliers, with claims of dumping margins as high as 920% [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Reactions - The imposition of tariffs has faced opposition from the U.S. electric vehicle industry, including companies like Tesla and Panasonic, due to potential increases in battery costs [7]. - The tariffs are seen as part of a broader strategy that intertwines trade policy with macroeconomic and geopolitical considerations, aiming to elevate the price of Chinese battery products to align more closely with U.S. or allied nations' products [7]. Group 4: Globalization Challenges - The uncertainty surrounding globalization is increasing, with implications for China's lithium battery industry and its international expansion strategies [8].

Group 1 - The article presents a detailed distribution map of the global lithium battery industry, covering the entire supply chain from raw materials to end applications [2] - The distribution map includes major lithium battery industry clusters in regions such as China, North America, Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia [2] Group 2 - The distribution map is available for free to those who share the article on their social media and contact the editor [3] - The distribution map is being dispatched in order of registration [4]