锂电供需格局好转
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东吴证券:储能加注供需天平回归 量利双升价值重估在即
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-30 02:22
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the lithium battery sector is experiencing strong demand and production growth, with expectations for significant increases in both battery and material segments in 2026, surpassing market expectations [1][2] - Battery production is benefiting from energy storage demand, with a 10% month-on-month increase in production in September and a further 10% increase in October, leading to an annual demand growth forecast of 40% [1] - Major battery manufacturers are expected to see a shipment volume increase of over 25% in 2026, significantly better than the previous forecast of 15-20% [1] Group 2 - The global energy storage demand is projected to grow by 40% to 770 GWh in 2026, driven by independent storage explosions in China and project rushes in the US [2] - European and emerging markets are expected to maintain high growth rates, with energy storage battery demand reaching 550 GWh in 2025, a 70% year-on-year increase [2] - The overall lithium battery demand for 2025 has been revised to a 40% growth forecast, with a 25%+ growth expected in 2026 [2] Group 3 - Material leaders are operating at full capacity, with a tight supply-demand balance expected to lead to price increases, particularly for hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate [3] - The price of hexafluorophosphate has already increased significantly, with spot prices rising to 100,000 yuan per ton, exceeding expectations [3] - Price adjustments are anticipated for other materials, including separators and anode materials, with some price increases already implemented for smaller clients [3]