Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle starting in 2026, driven by stable supply-demand dynamics and advancements in solid-state battery technology [2][4]. Demand - A new growth cycle is emerging, with energy storage expected to become a core growth driver. The domestic market for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is benefiting from increased battery capacity and the expansion of new application scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [7][10]. - In 2026, the average battery capacity for domestic passenger vehicles is projected to continue increasing, supported by policy adjustments and the introduction of high-capacity fast-charging models [7]. - The European market is anticipated to see accelerated demand recovery in 2026, driven by the launch of new platform models and continued subsidies for NEVs [10]. Supply and Demand - The supply-demand inflection point is approaching, with a confirmed trend of price reversal. By 2025, the demand driven by energy storage is expected to exceed expectations, leading to improved supply-demand relationships and price increases in various segments of the lithium battery supply chain [11][17]. - The overall capacity utilization rate in the industry is expected to rise, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity by the third quarter of 2025 [17]. New Technology - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating towards commercialization, with several manufacturers expected to achieve small-scale production by 2026. The focus is on solid-state sulfide batteries, which are anticipated to reach mass production levels [30][31]. - Semi-solid batteries are also gaining traction due to their higher safety and energy density, with commercial production expected to ramp up in various sectors, including electric vehicles and energy storage [29][30]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy includes focusing on energy storage demand exceeding expectations, which will drive a reversal trend in the sector. Key recommendations include lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [5]. - New technologies, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries, are highlighted as high-growth investment directions, with significant breakthroughs expected in 2026 [5][34]. International Expansion - The lithium battery supply chain is accelerating its global manufacturing layout, with significant production expected to come online in 2026 across Europe and Southeast Asia. This expansion is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [25][26]. - Companies are adopting new business models, such as technology licensing, to facilitate entry into markets with high trade barriers, exemplified by CATL's LRS model in the U.S. [27]. Charging Infrastructure - The domestic charging station construction is expected to benefit from supportive policies, while the U.S. market may see a surge in installations due to preemptive actions ahead of tariff impacts [39].

11月24日晚间，龙蟠科技（603906.SH，股价16.42元，市值112.49亿元）公告称，公司控股子公司常州锂源及控股孙公司南京锂源（以下简称"卖方"）与楚 能新能源全资子公司武汉楚能、孝感楚能及宜昌楚能（以下简称为"买方"）共同签署了《补充协议二》，对原协议相关条款进行补充与修订。 原协议约定，2025年至2030年，卖方合计向买方销售15万吨磷酸铁锂正极材料产品。此次《补充协议二》约定，2025年至2030年，卖方合计向买方销售130 万吨磷酸铁锂正极材料产品。 《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）注意到，公告显示，如按照预计数量及市场价格估算（不考虑客供碳酸锂模式的情况下），《补充协议二》 与原协议总销售金额超450亿元（最终根据销售订单据实结算）。 今年下半年以来，储能需求爆发式增长，造成锂电材料整体供应偏紧。而楚能新能源作为国内储能电芯领域的新势力，且近期正筹划大幅扩产。 9月6日，楚能新能源表示，公司宜昌锂电产业园二期规划年产能80GWh（吉瓦时），研发生产动力电池、储能电池及PACK（包装）模组等新能源产品。 9月15日，楚能新能源又与襄阳市政府签约，公司襄阳锂电池产业园规划年产能 ...

23 November 2025 | 10:52PM GMT Commodities Research Lavinia Forcellese +44(20)7774-9243 | lavinia.forcellese@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Aurelia Waltham +44(20)7051-2547 | aurelia.waltham@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | samantha.dart@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC BATTERY METALS ANALYST Lithium: ESS Boom Tighte ...

风险提示 ⚫ 需求不及预期；海外市场供需情况变化；油价大幅波动。 国家/地区 中国 行业 基础化工行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 11 月 23 日 看好（维持） 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 印度取消 BIS 认证及反倾销税，利好 PVC 等产品出口增长 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 建议关注景气度有望复苏的 PVC 相关企业 中泰化学(002092，未评级)、新疆天业 (600075，未评级)、氯碱化工(600618，未评级)、天原股份(002386，未评级)， MDI 龙头 万华化学(600309，买入)。景气度持续性受储能高速增长拉动的磷化工 中，相关标的包括川恒股份(002895，未评级)、云天化(600096，未评级)等；草酸 行业中，建议关注华鲁恒升(600426，买入)、华谊集团(600623，买入)、万凯新材 (301216，买入)。 | 倪吉 | 执业证书编号：S0860517120003 | | --- | --- | | | niji@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 万里扬 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090003 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices, driven by rising costs, demand, and market sentiment, suggests a potential new "super cycle" for lithium battery materials is approaching [1][3][7]. Price Movements - On November 17, 2023, lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 9%, closing at 95,200 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 7,840 yuan per ton [1]. - Leading companies in the A-share market, Tianqi Lithium (002466) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460), saw significant stock price increases of 9.87% and 7.48%, respectively, on the same day [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman indicated that if lithium carbonate demand grows over 30% next year, prices could exceed 150,000 yuan per ton, potentially reaching 200,000 yuan per ton if demand growth hits 40% [3]. - The projected global lithium carbonate demand for 2025 is 1.45 million tons, with an updated estimate of 1.55 million tons due to increased energy storage needs [3]. - Current supply capabilities are over 1.7 million tons, indicating a potential surplus of around 200,000 tons if demand does not exceed expectations [3]. Cost Factors - The increase in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to rising costs, particularly the anticipated increase in lithium mica costs [5]. - The cost of producing lithium carbonate from lithium mica is estimated to have risen by approximately 3,500 yuan per ton, bringing the total production cost to around 77,000 yuan per ton [6]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - The current price surge in lithium carbonate futures is largely viewed as capital speculation, as the spot market does not reflect the same level of activity [4][3]. - The sentiment in the market is influenced by the strong demand for energy storage solutions, which is expected to drive lithium battery demand growth exceeding 30% next year [8]. Supply Chain Considerations - The supply side is facing uncertainties, including the impact of increased imported lithium resources and the potential resumption of production at the Jiangxi lithium mica mine, which could affect lithium carbonate prices [8].

Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 17, the A-share lithium battery sector has strengthened, with 15 stocks including Hubei Zhongyi Technology and Ningbo Rongbai New Energy hitting the daily limit [1] - The new energy storage market in China has seen a significant increase, with installed capacity exceeding 100 million kilowatts by the end of September, accounting for over 40% of the global total [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The storage industry is driving the core battery materials sector out of a previous downturn, leading to increased production and prices [2] - In the first nine months of 2025, Chinese companies signed 308 overseas energy storage orders, with a total new order scale of 214.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 131.75% [2] - The price of core battery materials has been rising, with lithium iron phosphate prices reaching 37,350 yuan/ton and energy storage lithium iron phosphate at 34,350 yuan/ton as of November 17 [3] Group 3: Policy Support - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have set a target for new energy storage capacity to reach over 180 million kilowatts by 2027 [3] - Recent policies aim to promote advanced and efficient new energy storage construction [3] Group 4: Future Growth Projections - The independent energy storage demand is expected to grow by 30% to 40% in 2025 due to the cancellation of mandatory storage requirements [4] - The supply of core battery materials is anticipated to remain tight, with prices likely to enter a stable upward trend [4] Group 5: Technological Innovations - Key battery material companies are focusing on technological innovation and product iteration to meet the surging demand in the storage industry [5] - New advancements in lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate are being developed to enhance battery performance [6] Group 6: Strategic Recommendations - Companies in the battery materials industry should capitalize on the growing global storage demand, focusing on price-sensitive segments like lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium iron phosphate [7] - Emphasis on technological upgrades and establishing overseas production capacity is crucial for maintaining competitive advantage [7]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has seen a significant price increase, reaching a new high since July 2024, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On November 17, lithium carbonate futures opened higher and closed at 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a new high since July 2024 [1]. - The price of lithium carbonate has increased nearly 18% in November alone, with a more than 60% rise from the June low [2][3]. - The spot market for high-quality lithium carbonate was reported between 90,500 yuan/ton and 90,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a price adjustment of 3,600 yuan from the previous trading day [3]. Group 2: Demand Drivers - Demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow by 30% to 1.9 million tons by 2026, with potential price increases if demand growth reaches 40% [1]. - The electric vehicle sector is experiencing rapid growth, with a 42.1% year-on-year increase in battery installation in October, totaling 84.1 GWh [3]. - The energy storage market is also thriving, with a 57.5% year-on-year increase in energy cell production, indicating a dual demand boost for lithium carbonate [4]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The supply side has shown improvement, with lithium carbonate production increasing by 385 tons to 23,850 tons last week [5]. - The market is experiencing a significant reduction in inventory, with expectations of over 12,000 tons of inventory reduction in November [6]. - The ongoing high operating rates in the supply chain, coupled with new production capacity from overseas salt lakes, may limit the upward price potential in the long term [6].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has seen a significant price increase, reaching a new high since July 2024, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [3][4]. Demand Recovery and Price Increase - Lithium carbonate futures have risen nearly 18% in November, with the main contract closing at 95,200 yuan/ton [5]. - Compared to the price low in June, the continuous main contract for lithium carbonate has increased over 60% [6]. - The current market price for high-quality lithium carbonate is between 90,500 yuan/ton and 90,900 yuan/ton, with battery-grade prices in the same range, reflecting a daily increase of 3,600 yuan [6]. Market Dynamics - The demand for lithium carbonate is being driven by rapid growth in both commercial and passenger electric vehicles, as well as a robust energy storage market [7]. - The production of power batteries in October reached 84.1 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, with new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.715 million units, up 6.12% month-on-month [7]. - The energy storage market is also experiencing significant growth, with a reported production of 861.04 GWh for power batteries and 355.1 GWh for energy storage batteries in the first three quarters of the year, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 45.6% and 57.5%, respectively [7]. Supply Chain and Inventory Trends - The market is currently experiencing a significant reduction in inventory, with expectations of over 12,000 tons of inventory reduction in November [10]. - Recent supply chain disruptions, including a three-month shutdown of the Jiangxia mine and regulatory reviews affecting production in Yichun and Qinghai, have contributed to supply constraints [10]. - Analysts predict that if the Jiangxia mine does not resume production, inventory reduction could reach approximately 8,000 tons in December [10]. Future Outlook - The demand for lithium is expected to continue growing, with UBS forecasting that global energy storage demand will increase from 396 GWh in 2026 to 873 GWh by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 24% [7]. - However, there are concerns about potential price pressures due to high production levels and the release of new overseas salt lake capacities, which may limit price increases in the long term [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices, driven by increased demand and speculative trading, suggests a potential new "super cycle" in lithium battery materials may be on the horizon [1][3][8]. Price Movements - On November 17, lithium carbonate futures hit a limit up, with the main contract rising by 9% to close at 95,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 7,840 yuan/ton in a single day [1]. - Major lithium producers in the A-share market, Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, saw significant stock price increases of 9.87% and 7.48%, respectively [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Industry experts attribute the price increase to rising costs, demand growth, and market sentiment [3][5]. - Predictions indicate that if lithium carbonate demand grows by over 30% next year, prices could exceed 150,000 yuan/ton, potentially reaching 200,000 yuan/ton if demand growth hits 40% [4]. Supply Considerations - Current global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach 1.45 million tons by 2025, with an updated estimate of 1.55 million tons due to increased energy storage needs [4]. - The supply capacity is estimated at over 1.7 million tons, indicating a potential surplus of around 200,000 tons [4]. Cost Factors - The increase in lithium carbonate prices is partly attributed to rising costs associated with lithium mica extraction, with production costs estimated to rise by 3,500 yuan per ton of lithium carbonate [6]. Energy Storage Demand - The primary driver of the current lithium carbonate price surge is the explosive growth in energy storage demand, which is expected to significantly boost lithium battery requirements [8]. - The domestic energy storage market is experiencing a turning point in economic viability, driven by marketization of renewable energy and capacity pricing [8]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - The rapid rise in lithium carbonate futures is seen as largely speculative, with actual spot market activity not reflecting the same level of enthusiasm [1][4]. - There are concerns about potential price corrections in December due to increased imports and the possibility of domestic supply resuming from key mines [9].

Group 1: Market Overview - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton, leading to a rally in A-share lithium mining stocks, with several companies hitting the daily limit [2] - As of November 17, among 23 listed lithium mining companies, 7 have seen their stock prices rise over 100% this year, with Dazhong Mining, Tianhua New Energy, and Shengxin Lithium Energy leading with increases of 264%, 168%, and 160% respectively [2] - The recent price rebound is attributed to a combination of supply contraction and a structural shift in demand driven by the explosion of energy storage needs [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased by 21.33% since mid-September, rising from 71,500 yuan/ton to 90,350 yuan/ton, and over 50% since June's low of 59,900 yuan/ton [3] - Supply constraints are evident as mining operations have been halted, notably in Jiangxi province, reducing domestic monthly supply by approximately 0.8 million tons, which is about 8% of the total supply [3] - Demand is strong, with analysts predicting that lithium demand will grow by 30% in 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to increase by only 250,000 tons, leading to a balanced supply-demand scenario [4] Group 3: Company Performance - Leading lithium companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium have reported significant profit increases, with Tianqi Lithium achieving a net profit of 180 million yuan in Q3, marking a 119.26% year-on-year growth [6] - Ganfeng Lithium's revenue for the first three quarters reached 14.625 billion yuan, a 5.02% increase year-on-year, with Q3 net profit soaring to 557 million yuan, a 364.02% increase [6] - Analysts have upgraded Tianqi Lithium's rating to "buy," citing its global presence in high-quality lithium resources and the growing demand for lithium batteries [6][7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market remains divided on the future trajectory of lithium prices, with short-term demand expected to support prices, but long-term supply pressures may limit price increases [5] - The energy storage sector is identified as a key driver for future lithium demand growth, with predictions of a significant increase in demand due to economic factors [5][7] - Analysts maintain a cautious yet optimistic outlook on lithium prices, suggesting that the supply-demand balance will be crucial in determining future price movements [5][7]