Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall fundamentals of lithium carbonate present a short - term weak and medium - term strong pattern. The market's enthusiasm has cooled under macro and regulatory policies. The supply - demand tension has marginally eased, but there is still a gap. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in February. If the inventory accumulation is less than expected and the price drops at a low level, there is a high possibility of a price surge in March [2][3] - The current supply - demand contradiction of lithium carbonate has been somewhat alleviated, but in the medium - to - long term, the upstream ore supply is limited and cannot meet the downstream demand, so the supply - demand tension still exists [92] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Market Review (1) January Futures Market Trend of Lithium Carbonate - In January 2026, the price of lithium carbonate futures rose sharply and then fluctuated violently at high levels. Influenced by supply contraction, expected demand front - loading, and exchange policy adjustments, the price was strongly pulled up and oscillated. Near the end of the month, affected by capital outflows and the overall weakening of macro commodities, the price dropped significantly [7] - The monthly cumulative trading volume was 13.85 million lots, and the open interest was 720,000 lots. The main contract LC2605 rose 21.9% in January, with an amplitude of 54.8%, setting the largest fluctuation range since the listing of lithium carbonate futures [10][12] (2) January Spot and Basis of Lithium Carbonate - In January, the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 160,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 157,000 yuan/ton. The price increased by 35% compared with the previous month, and the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate widened from 3,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3,500 yuan/ton [13] - The price of lithium hydroxide increased by 48% compared with the previous month, and the price difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide narrowed from 8,200 yuan to 5,000 yuan [16] - The basis of the main contract fluctuated violently. By the end of January, the basis turned positive, rising to 3,200 yuan/ton. The price linkage between the futures and spot markets was strong, and the price difference fluctuated greatly between - 10,000 yuan and 12,000 yuan [19] (3) Price Trends of the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In January, the prices of the upstream and downstream of the lithium carbonate industry chain generally rose significantly. The price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate was 2,175 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of 40%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 14% due to market capacity release, dragging down the electrolyte price by 7%. The monthly growth rate of lithium iron phosphate was 24%, and that of ternary materials was 18% [21] II. Upstream Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) Lithium Ore Price Trends and Lithium Carbonate Production Profits - In January, the price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate rose from 1,510 US dollars/ton in the previous month to 2,175 US dollars/ton, with a growth rate of over 40%. The price of lithium mica (Li2O) concentrate rose from 3,355 yuan/ton to 4,965 yuan/ton, with a monthly growth rate of 48% [24] - The production profit of purchasing spodumene externally was profitable at the end of the month, around 6,700 yuan. The profit of purchasing mica externally fluctuated following the profit of the spodumene end, with the end - month profit around 3,600 yuan [25] (2) Lithium Ore Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In January, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the lithium ore inventory increased significantly. However, from the inventory link, the inventory of traders increased significantly, while the inventory of lithium salt plants was at a low level. The supply of mica ore was still tight due to the shutdown in Jiangxi [29] - It is expected that the domestic mica ore supply will decrease by at least 60,000 tons. Abroad, the Ngungaju plant's resumption of production will add 11,000 tons of LCE production capacity this year, the CGP3 project of Greenbushes is expected to produce 22,000 tons this year, and the output of Wodgina lithium mine will increase by 5,000 tons [37][38] III. Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis (1) Lithium Carbonate Production - In January, the lithium carbonate production was 98,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 57%. The production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,400 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 26,500 tons [39] - The main supply of production still came from the spodumene end. The estimated production capacity utilization rate in January was 57%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month, maintaining at the historical average level [43][45] (2) Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In December 2025, the import of lithium carbonate was 24,000 tons, and the export was 912 tons, with a net import of 2,310 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons. Chile and Argentina were still the main import sources, accounting for over 90% of the total import volume. The average import price in December was 10,187 US dollars/ton, a 272 - dollar increase from November [49][53] (3) Lithium Hydroxide Production and Apparent Demand - In January, the lithium hydroxide production was 27,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. In December, the net export of lithium hydroxide was 1,225 tons. If estimated based on December's net export, the apparent demand in January was 26,000 tons, at a relatively high historical level [54] IV. Downstream Demand Analysis of Lithium Carbonate (1) New Energy Vehicle Sales - In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.71 million, a 7% increase compared with the same period last year. In 2025, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 16.44 million, a 28% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 2.58 million, a 106% year - on - year increase, accounting for 16% of the total sales volume [57][58] - Pure electric vehicles accounted for 65%, and hybrid vehicles accounted for 35%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales continued to rise, currently reaching 52.3%, exceeding that of traditional vehicles [60] (2) Lithium Battery and Cell Production - In January, the lithium battery production of sample enterprises was 194 GWh, of which lithium iron phosphate battery production was 154 GWh, accounting for 79%. The production of ternary batteries was stable, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 71% year - on - year [64] - In January, the monthly production of power cells was 120 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 36%; the monthly production of energy - storage cells was 89 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 11% and a year - on - year increase of 56%. The cell inventory - to - sales ratio continued to decline, and the inventory was at a low level [67] (3) Cathode Material and Electrolyte Production - Overall, the cathode material production remained at a high level. In January, the lithium iron phosphate production was 397,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 58%. The production of ternary materials in January was 81,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 58% [71] - In December, the electrolyte production was 227,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 42%; the lithium hexafluorophosphate production was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 45% [76] V. Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Affected by the supply - demand tension of lithium carbonate, the inventory maintained a downward trend, but the inventory days increased slightly due to the production maintenance in January - February and the Spring Festival off - season. By the end of January, the sample social inventory of lithium carbonate was 107,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton decrease from the previous month, and the inventory days were 28.5 days. The smelter inventory was at a historical low level, and the downstream inventory increased slightly but was still at a low level overall [77] - From the perspective of inventory seasonality, July to November is the destocking season, and then the inventory will continue to rise until June. Affected by the Spring Festival, the lithium carbonate inventory may show a cumulative state in February [81][83] - By the end of January, the exchange inventory was 30,000 tons, a 3,000 - ton increase compared with 27,000 tons before the inventory cancellation in November last year. The overall inventory was at a low level [85] VI. Lithium Carbonate Summary and Future Market Forecast - In the short term, lithium carbonate is still in a stage of supply falling short of demand, but the supply - demand tension will ease in February due to the decline in downstream demand during the Spring Festival [88] - In February, the production of lithium carbonate is expected to decrease by about 3% month - on - month. The import volume in January - February is expected to be about 22,000/15,000 tons. The production of lithium hydroxide may drop to about 25,000 tons in February. The total supply will reach 130,000 tons [89] - In February, due to the Spring Festival factor, the downstream production schedule is expected to decrease by about 10 - 15% month - on - month, and it is estimated to resume growth after March. In addition, the significant price drop of lithium carbonate at a high level will continue to effectively boost demand [89] - The current inventory is lower than the historical average level. It is expected that lithium carbonate may accumulate a small amount of inventory in February, but the overall inventory is at a low level. If the inventory accumulation in February is less than expected, the inventory in March may be further tightened [90]