首席点评： 经济数据好转 政策效果初现 国家统计局数据显示， 7 月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 1.5% ，降幅较 6 月份收窄 2.8 个百分点，连续两个月收 窄。其中，高技术制造业利润由 6 月份下降 0.9% 转为增长 18.9% ，拉动全部规模以上工业企业利润增速较 6 月份加快 2.9 个百分点，引领作用明显。 乘联分会披露， 8 月 1-24 日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售 72.7 万辆，同比增长 6% ，环比增长 7% ，全国乘用车新能源零 售渗透率 56.6% ，今年以来累计零售 718.2 万辆，同比增长 27% 。 重点品种：国债、油脂、双焦 双焦： 昨日夜盘双焦主力合约呈震荡走势，两者持仓环比基本持平。钢联数据显示，上周铁水产量环比基本持平，螺纹产 量环比下降，总库存继续增加、但增幅环比有所减小，表需环比小幅增加，整体五大材延续累库、但表需环比增加。短期 来看，需求端的铁水产量并未因限产扰动出现下降、维持 240 万吨以上的高位水平，双焦需求维持韧性，但上游开始累 库、竞拍流拍率上行、蒙煤通关量高位、正处需求淡季的钢材与同期低位的近远月价差会对盘面走势形成压力，判断当前 多空博弈加 ...

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新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 供应扰动仍有不确定性，碳酸锂盘面宽幅震荡 市场分析 2025-08-25，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于81000元/吨，收于79380元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.30%。当日 成交量为626916手，持仓量为368667手，前一交易日持仓量362254手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为3340元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单25630手，较上个交易日变化640手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价80200-84800元/吨，较前一交易日变化-1400元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价79600-80800元/吨，较前一交易日变化-1400元/吨。6%锂精矿价格920美元/吨，较前一日变化0美元/吨。据SMM 数据，现货价格有所回落，下游采购及点价行为较上周趋于平稳。因上周市场成交活跃，下游库存量级有所增多。 今日成交量出现回落，下游采购心态转向谨慎，普遍观望等待价格进一步下调。当前处于"金九银十"传统旺季周 期，下游需求仍存在一定刚性支撑。 根据最新统计周度数据，周度产量降低842吨至19138吨，以锂辉石生产产量增加，以云母生产产量降 ...

业绩简评 2025 年 8 月 25 日，公司发布 2025 年半年报公告：25H1 公司收入 81.88 亿元，同比增长 49.04%，归母净利润 7.45 亿元，同比+63.95%， 扣非归母净利润 7.00 亿元，同比增长 75.06%。其中 25Q2 收入 44.21 亿元，同比增长 50.78%，归母净利润 3.98 亿元，同比+178.32%，扣 非归母净利润 3.77 亿元，同比+204.03%。 经营分析 （1）收入结构：2025H1 海外建材、建材机械、锂电材料、新能源装 备占比分别 46%、31%、11%、9%，海外收入占比 65%以上。 （2）海外建材板块：受益"布局优化+价格策略优化+玻璃业务拓展"， 海外建材实现量价齐升，25H1 收入 37.71 亿元，同增 90.08%，25H1 公司建筑陶瓷产品产量约 0.98 亿平方米，同增约 16.96%，浮法玻 璃产量超过 17 万吨。并且延续提价趋势，盈利能力同比持续改善， 毛利率实现 36.80%，同增 5.85 个百分点。随着肯尼亚伊新亚陶瓷 项目、科特迪瓦陶瓷项目 6 月点火，预计 Q3 瓷砖产销环比提升。 公司扎根东非+西非，有 ...

五矿证券近日发布有色月跟踪：7月市场行情围绕"反内卷"等展开，有色板块涨幅位居 前列。2025年7月1日，中央财经委员会第六次会议提出"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要 聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有 序退出。 以下为研究报告摘要： 报告要点 7月市场行情围绕"反内卷"等展开，有色板块涨幅位居前列。2025年7月1日，中央财经 委员会第六次会议提出"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企 业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。2025年7月18日，工信 部表示实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案。7月周期 板块涨幅位居前列，其中有色指数涨幅位居全行业第8名，涨幅达5.7%。其中在有色指数 中，小金属和能源金属表现优异。 合并、淘汰低端产能、提升产业集中度"、"由行业协会统一协调出口数量"、"成立超级LSI 技术研究协会"等避免企业间内卷引发贸易冲突。综合来看，日本的反内卷先依托于行业协 会或政策的发力，从内卷式竞争到协同研发，甚至协调出口，再到后续行业之间的合并和收 购现象频发，大企业的市占率 ...

大宗反内卷情绪退潮，工业品或重回基本面驱动 20250825 摘要 黑色系商品四季度或面临下行压力，前期利好因素边际转弱，钢材与钢 坯库存累积加速，终端需求未见明显回升，内需疲软依赖出口拉动，需 警惕需求端风险。 年初市场预期铁矿供应增长乐观，但实际增量有限，煤炭查超产限制供 给弹性，原料价格短期坚挺。若需求侧无长效机制支撑，反内卷政策未 能实质落地，黑色系商品下半年挑战大。 反内卷背景下，上半年焦煤等上游原料价格疲软，吨钢利润改善。反内 卷政策实施后，煤炭供应受限，钢厂生产惯性强劲，利润分配向上游转 移。短期下行空间有限，长期关注需求端变化和政策落实。 当前铁水产量有韧性，原料库存不高且供给受限，可考虑逢低布局铁矿 和焦煤。密切关注出口和制造业需求降速风险，以及四季度供需收敛情 况和政策影响。 政策风险积累，国内长买单影响显著。制造业需求依赖内需，以旧换新 政策边际效应减弱，企业中长期贷款不乐观，预计四季度制造业需求面 临降速压力，钢厂高供给或导致钢材库存积累。 Q&A 近期工业品市场的反内卷预期对价格产生了哪些影响？ 近期工业品市场在反内卷预期下，部分品种出现了显著的价格波动。尤其是黑 色系商品，在今年上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the document. 2. Report's Core View - The gold price is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern due to the mixed influence of the Fed's potential interest rate cut and the risk of inflation pressure from Trump's tariff policy [3]. - The copper price may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and limited downward space [15]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, while alumina is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [35]. - The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with an increasingly obvious pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic prices [64]. - The nickel - related market is affected by multiple factors such as nickel ore price, downstream demand, and macro - level factors, and the stainless steel price may have a certain correction [80]. - The tin price is expected to be mainly volatile in the next week [95]. - The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to enter a volatile consolidation stage, while the spot market sentiment is expected to remain strong [106]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be in bottom - level volatility in the short term, and the polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile and strong [115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Daily View**: Fed Chair Powell's signal of a potential interest rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting has increased the market's expectation of a September rate cut to 85%, but the risk of inflation pressure from Trump's tariff policy may delay the rate - cut rhythm, leading to a short - term volatile gold price [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, including prices, ratios, and spreads, are presented [4][9][12]. - **Long - term Fund Holdings**: The long - term fund holdings of gold and silver show certain trends [12][13]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver are provided [14]. 3.2 Copper - **Daily View**: The Fed's meeting minutes have little impact on copper prices, but Powell's speech has boosted the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals. The copper price may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan per ton, and investors need to pay attention to relevant economic data [15]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are presented [16]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions are provided, along with import profit and loss and processing fee data [21][27]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME copper are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [32][33]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Daily View**: Aluminum prices have experienced a correction due to tariff policies, but low inventory and inventory reduction provide support, and the short - term trend is volatile and strong. Alumina has a weak fundamental situation and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [35]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are presented [37]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum spot in different regions are provided, along with relevant basis and spread data [50]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [59]. 3.4 Zinc - **Daily View**: The zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. The zinc price is mainly volatile in the short term, with an obvious pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic prices [64]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and LME zinc futures are presented [65]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot are provided, along with relevant basis and spread data [71]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME zinc are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [76]. 3.5 Nickel - **Daily View**: The nickel - related market is affected by factors such as nickel ore price, downstream demand, and macro - level factors. The stainless steel price may have a certain correction [80]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, changes, and change rates of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are presented [81]. - **Related Data**: Various data such as nickel spot price, nickel ore price, and downstream profit are provided [86][88][90]. 3.6 Tin - **Daily View**: The tin price is expected to be mainly volatile in the next week, supported by the decline in social inventory and stable demand [95]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are presented [96]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin spot are provided [100]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of SHFE and LME tin are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [102]. 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Daily View**: The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to enter a volatile consolidation stage, while the spot market sentiment is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the downstream production schedule in September [106]. - **Futures Data**: The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, including the closing prices of different contracts and the spreads between contracts, are presented [107]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium - related spot are provided [109]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory data of lithium carbonate, including warehouse receipts and social inventories, are provided [113]. 3.8 Silicon Industry Chain - **Daily View**: The industrial silicon market is expected to be in bottom - level volatility in the short term, and the polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile and strong [115]. - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon in different regions are presented, along with basis and spread data [116]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are presented [117]. - **Related Data**: Various data such as price charts, basis seasonality, and production and inventory data are provided [118][120][132]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are in a typical volatile convergence stage, and the market may break through the current range. The industry integration is expected to support the market [115]. - **Price Data**: The price trends of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and related products are presented [122][123]. - **Inventory and Cost Data**: The inventory and cost data of polysilicon are provided [138][141].

Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily report on the precious metals and non - ferrous metals industry dated August 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Fed's September rate - cut expectation and central bank gold purchases support gold prices, but geopolitical situation easing weakens safe - haven demand, and dollar fluctuations limit the upside of gold prices. The market awaits Powell's speech at the global central bank conference. Gold ETFs and long - term structural buying remain the pillars of demand [3] Details - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related indicators such as COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in graphs [4] - Gold and silver long - term fund holdings and inventories in SHFE and COMEX are shown [12][14][15] Group 3: Copper Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In the short term, copper prices may continue to fluctuate. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes next week and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices. The strong support of the dollar index puts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [16] Details - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, price changes, and spreads, are provided. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,690 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [17][20] - Copper import profit and loss, concentrate processing fees, and warehouse receipts data are also presented [27][31][33] Group 4: Aluminum Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For aluminum, the US tariff expansion has a certain impact on China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Aluminum prices are likely to correct rather than reverse considering the September peak - season expectation and rate - cut expectation. For alumina, the fundamentals are weak, with supply in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, and its futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price [35][36] Details - Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. For instance, the latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,630 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.19% [37][49][55] Group 5: Zinc Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the supply side, smelting profit has recovered, and the supply is gradually changing from tight to excessive. The mine supply is loose. On the demand side, the traditional off - season is weak. LME inventory is decreasing with a certain squeeze - out risk. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate based on macro - observation [62] Details - Zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are shown. The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.16% [63][71][75] Group 6: Nickel Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Nickel ore is relatively stable, with high domestic arrival inventory. Nickel iron is still relatively firm in the short term. Stainless steel prices are weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are stable. Future trends depend on macro - level guidance [78] Details - Nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory data are presented. The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 119,610 yuan/ton [79] Group 7: Tin Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro data from the US is in line with expectations. The repeated delay of Myanmar's tin mine full - resumption of production supports tin prices. In the short term, tin prices may fluctuate [92] Details - Tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related indicators such as LME tin spreads are provided. The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 265,930 yuan/ton [93][98][102] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The market's sensitivity to news is decreasing. In the short term, prices may rebound due to supply - side disturbances and enter a wide - range oscillation [107] Details - Lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data are given. The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 78,960 yuan/ton [108][111][115] Group 9: Silicon Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The increase in polysilicon production schedules boosts the demand for industrial silicon. In the medium term, the downside space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the future [117] Details - Industrial silicon futures and spot prices, spreads, and production and inventory data are presented. The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,745 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.27% [117][118][132]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday to verify the reasonableness of bets on a September interest rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in the US PPI and the resilience of retail data, there are concerns that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, leading to cautious trading sentiment. However, the interference with the Fed's independence by Trump's call for Cook to resign has weakened the US dollar and provided a rebound opportunity for precious metals. In the future, the potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation under tariff shocks supports precious metals, and it is expected that precious metals will continue to trade in a high-range oscillation pattern. [2][3] - For copper, the market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech at the "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting." Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [5][9] - Alumina's price is reverting to fundamentals as market speculation cools. Although the overall supply-demand situation remains in surplus, short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [11][13][15] - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [18][21] - In the case of casting aluminum alloy, the supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [26][27] - Zinc prices are under pressure due to the continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, leading to a build-up in social inventory. [29][32] - Lead prices are likely to trade in a range due to weak supply and demand. The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. [35][36][39] - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a wide range due to the large supply surplus and the lack of clear short-term supply-demand contradictions. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. [41][42][43] - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and downward support from cost factors. The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. [47] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade in a range, with the core contradiction being the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. [50][51][52] - Polysilicon prices are expected to trade in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Although the fundamental situation is bearish due to oversupply in August, the price is supported by cost factors. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [54][55][56] - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to rebound after a significant decline. The market overreacted to negative news, but the supply-demand situation may tighten in September due to reduced imports. The price is recommended to be bought after a sufficient correction. [58][60][61] - Tin prices are expected to continue to trade in an oscillatory pattern. The market is in a state of tight balance with weak supply and demand. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. [63][65][66] Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.94% to $3,347.335 per ounce, and London silver rose 1.44% to $37.855 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also closed higher. The US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.218, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 4.2868%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.08% to 7.177. [2] Important News - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged, but more officials were open to a September rate cut after the August 1 employment report. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 81.9%. Israel has not responded to the ceasefire proposal from Hamas. [2] Logic Analysis - The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The interference with the Fed's independence has weakened the US dollar and supported precious metals. The potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation supports precious metals in the future. [3] Trading Strategy - Go long on dips near the 5-day moving average for single positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [3] Copper Market Review - The night session of the SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the LME copper closed at $9,721 per ton, up 0.38%. The LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,300 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 593 tons to 270,500 tons. [5] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance due to an accident at its El Teniente mine. China's imports of copper scrap, copper ore, and refined copper in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [5][7][8] Logic Analysis - The market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech. Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [9] Trading Strategy - Copper prices are under pressure due to short-term supply increases. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [9] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract rose 46 yuan to 3,155 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. [11] Important News - A large aluminum plant in the northwest made a large-scale spot purchase, which led to a slight decline in spot prices. The national alumina production capacity and operating rate increased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2,997 tons to 75,050 tons. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $369 per ton FOB Australia for September shipment. China's alumina exports and imports in July increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The import of bauxite also increased significantly. [11][12][13] Logic Analysis - The market speculation sentiment has cooled, and the price is reverting to fundamentals. The supply-demand situation remains in surplus, but short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [13][15] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract rose 70 yuan to 20,590 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined. [18] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. There are discussions about a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. The main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.6 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,529 tons to 62,938 tons. A 600,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia has entered the construction phase. China's aluminum ingot imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. A project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be completed by the end of the year. [18][19][21] Logic Analysis - The macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [21] Trading Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern in the short term. Consider a long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage if the Russia-Ukraine issue continues to ease, and exit if the talks are not successful. Pay attention to the widening of the contango when the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night session of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 45 yuan to 20,090 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained stable. [24] Important News - A policy document may affect the recycling aluminum industry. The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in July increased slightly compared to June, and the industry's theoretical profit increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased slightly. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [27] Trading Strategy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [28] Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market rose 0.58% to $2,786 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.41% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanghai remained stable, and the downstream showed a wait-and-see attitude. [29] Important News - China's zinc concentrate imports in July increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The exports of galvanized sheets increased slightly, while the exports of zinc oxide and die-cast zinc alloy decreased significantly. The safety inspections in northern lead-zinc mines have increased, but there is no direct impact on production for now. [29][30][31] Logic Analysis - The continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption have led to a build-up in social inventory, putting pressure on zinc prices. [32] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the domestic social inventory situation. If there is a significant build-up, zinc prices may decline further. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [33] Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.33% to $1,980.5 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.18% to 16,775 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM1 lead declined, and the downstream battery production enterprises mainly made just-in-time purchases. [35] Important News - China's lead-acid battery imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Some secondary lead smelters lowered their purchase prices, but the arrival of scrap lead was not significantly improved. The LME received a registration application for a new lead brand. [35] Logic Analysis - The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. The supply and demand are both weak, and lead prices are likely to trade in a range. [36][39] Trading Strategy - Trade lead prices in a range by selling high and buying low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [39] Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell $15 to $15,045 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 18 tons to 209,346 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 180 yuan to 120,370 yuan/ton. The premiums of different nickel products showed different changes. [41] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that only two officials voted against keeping interest rates unchanged. NATO discussed Ukraine's security guarantee issue. The global refined nickel supply was in surplus in June and from January to June. [41][42] Logic Analysis - The large supply surplus limits the upward movement of nickel prices. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. The short-term supply-demand situation is balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a wide range. [43][45] Trading Strategy - Sell out-of-the-money put options. [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract SS2510 remained unchanged at 12,830 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel remained stable. [47] Important News - A 600,000-set carbon steel and stainless steel high-end precision casting project started construction. The stainless steel inventory in Foshan decreased slightly. [47] Logic Analysis - The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. The concentration of steel mill maintenance in August and the subsequent planned resumptions have increased the sales pressure. The increase in the nickel iron price provides cost support, but the lack of demand limits the upward movement of prices. [47] Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [48] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures price declined due to the fall in coking coal and polysilicon prices. The spot prices also decreased. [51] Important News - A new product of a subsidiary of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang Province. [51] Logic Analysis - The core contradiction in the industrial silicon market is the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. The supply and demand situation is relatively balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a range. [52] Trading Strategy - Trade industrial silicon prices in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton by buying on dips near the lower end of the range. Consider a reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. [52] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures price fell and then rebounded after the limit-down of lithium carbonate.，The spot prices increased slightly. [54][55] Important News - Trump stated that his government will not approve photovoltaic or wind power projects. [55] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon production in August is expected to be in surplus, but the price is supported by cost factors. The previous low price level provides strong support, and the high price level is limited by the potential large-scale selling for delivery. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [55] Trading Strategy - Buy polysilicon futures on dips in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Consider a positive arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out-of-the-money put options and buy call options. [56] Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The carbonate lithium futures price hit the limit-down, and the spot prices remained stable. [58] Important News - A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter and plans to submit an environmental research report for a lithium project next year. The government exposed two cases of tax fraud in the "new three" fields. The retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in August showed growth compared to the same period last year and the previous month. [58][60] Logic Analysis - The sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices was due to market overreaction to negative news and the exit of large funds. However, the supply-demand situation may tighten in

大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 8 月 21 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2509 合约收于 78540 元/吨，跌幅 0.05%，沪铜指数减仓 732 手至 46.06 万 手。 2.现货：因进口与国产货源集中到货，日内持货商积极出货领跌升水，上海报升水 160 元/ 吨，较上一交易日下跌 30 元/吨。广东库存 3 连降，但终端企业补货积极性不高，报升水 60 元/吨，持平上一交易日。华北受物流管控，持货商挺价信心较强，报贴水 50 元/吨，上 涨 10 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1. 海关总署在线査询数据显示，中国 7 月废铜进口 ...