投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 反内卷遇上反垄断，价格剧烈波动 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-1-12 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 投资咨询证号：Z0023460 工业硅：下游进一步减产，硅价支撑偏弱 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）全国周产8.03 万吨，环比-0.77%；全国开炉228 台，环比-3台。 | | 供给端 | 偏多 | （2）主产区：新疆地区周产5.08 万吨，环比-1.55%，开炉数环比-3台。云南地区周产0.43 万吨，环比一致，开炉数环比一致。四川地区周产 | | | | 0.22 万吨，环比-一致，开炉数环比一致。 | | | | （3）12月产量3 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：供应担忧叙事延续 铜价冲高回落 （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 1、宏观。海外方面，美国2025年12月季调后非农就业人口增加5万人，低于预期值6万人和前值6.4万 人；失业率4.4%，预期4.5%，前值4.6%。此外，美国10月份非农新增就业人数从-10.5万人修正至-17.3 万人；11月份非农新增就业人数从6.4万人修正至5.6万人。失业率的下降暂时缓解了对劳动力市场恶化 的最严重担忧。另外，美联储的报告显示，消费者预计未来一年物价将上涨3.4%，高于11月的3.2%。 美联储内部官员继续存在较大分歧，一部分官员更担忧通胀问题，另一部分则认为失业率上升才是更大 的风险，导致月底的美联储会议降息预期仍不明朗。国内方面，财政部、税务总局公告称，自2026年4 月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的增值 税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。对上述产品中征收消 费税的产品，出口消费税政策不作调整 ...

金融市场瞬息万变，投资与经济政策深刻影响全球。我们为您带来昨夜今晨的财经新闻，涵盖股市动 态、经济数据、企业财务和政策更新，帮助您全面把握金融世界。 环球下周看点： 美股Q4财报季拉开帷幕 CPI数据与地缘局势成焦点 美股2026年开局强劲，但下周将迎来关键考验：第四季度财报季正式开启，大型银行将率先公布业绩； 美国12月CPI通胀数据即将发布，这将是评估美联储降息路径的核心指标。与此同时，地缘政治不确定 性持续上升，包括伊朗局势等事件受到关注。尽管市场波动率指标仍处低位，但分析师提示，当前平静 的市场或低估了这些即将发生、可能显著推高波动率的事件。 美国联邦通信委员会（FCC）批准SpaceX增发7500颗第二代星链卫星，使其授权卫星总数达到1.5万 颗。该批准允许SpaceX升级卫星并放宽了部分运营限制，以提升全球互联网服务能力。与此同时， SpaceX正推进其IPO计划，目标估值约1.5万亿美元，其中星链业务的强劲增长被视为公司未来的核心收 入来源。 2026，没人愿意再为外卖内卷买单 2026年初，监管层对外卖行业"内卷式"竞争展开强力干预。国务院反垄断反不正当竞争委员会依据《反 垄断法》启动市场调查 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 9 日 PPI 超预期回升 —2025 年 12 月通胀数据点评 频率：每月 点评报告 相关报告 1、《预计 2025 年 5%收官—— 宏观经济预测报告（2025 年 12 月）》2026-01-06 2、《从"安全资产"到"地缘 安全资产"———宏观与大类 资产周报》2026-01-05 3、《大幅高于季节性——— 2025 年 12 月 PMI 点评》2025- 12-31 宏观点评报告 图 1：CPI 同比和环比变化趋势（%） | 同比（%） | 较前值 | 2025-12 | 2025-11 | 2025-10 | 2025-09 | 2025-08 | 2025-07 | 2025-06 | 2025-05 | 2025-04 | 2025-03 | 2025-02 | 2025-01 | 2024-12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CPI | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The 2026 China People's Bank Work Conference emphasized promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and planned to use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [8][22][28][30]. - Multiple factors drive the copper price to be strong. Supply - side concerns and long - term copper consumption recovery expectations, especially from emerging industries like AI computing centers,新能源 industries, and grid transformation, may lead to a continuous firm or rising copper price [9][10]. - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), the 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and the fermentation of geopolitical events [11][12][144]. - The silicon iron market is driven by emotions and medium - term expectations, and the price may rise, but the sustainability needs further confirmation [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: Global geopolitical turmoil raises concerns about copper mine supply. The 2026 Chinese imported copper concentrate long - term TC is $0/ton, lower than in 2025. Some copper mines face potential labor disputes and production changes [9][24][26]. - **Demand - side**: Long - term copper consumption recovery expectations are strong. AI computing centers and other emerging industries, as well as the new energy industry and grid transformation, drive copper demand [9][10]. - **Price trend**: Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the copper price may remain firm or rise [10]. Zinc - **Market performance**: The zinc price is running strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed [27]. - **News influence**: Policy changes and geopolitical events may affect the zinc market [28]. Lead - **Market situation**: The LME lead inventory decrease supports the lead price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also shown corresponding trends [31]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate data influence the lead market [31]. Tin - **Market trend**: The tin price is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot have increased, and the inventory has changed [34]. - **News impact**: Macroeconomic policies and corporate news affect the tin market [35]. Aluminum - **Market performance**: The aluminum price is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign aluminum futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have all changed [37]. - **News influence**: Fed policy differences and geopolitical events affect the aluminum market [38]. Platinum and Palladium - **Market trend**: Platinum shows a recovery in sentiment and runs strongly, and palladium follows platinum. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have changed [39]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate news influence the market [42]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Nickel is in a wide - range oscillation, and stainless steel is affected by the fundamentals and Indonesian policies. The prices, trading volume, and open interest of nickel - related products have changed, and the Indonesian government has introduced relevant policies [43][44][46]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market performance**: The market sentiment of carbonate lithium is strong. The prices of carbonate lithium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed [47]. - **News influence**: The price negotiation of lithium iron phosphate and the release of new battery products affect the market [48][49]. Energy and Chemicals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market trend**: Industrial silicon is affected by news and shows a strong performance, and polysilicon needs to pay attention to market news. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon have changed [50]. - **News background**: The proposed implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi affects the industrial silicon market [51]. Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The iron ore price is fluctuating at a high level. The prices of iron ore futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have also shown corresponding trends [54][55]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market performance**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by market sentiment and are in a wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil have changed, and relevant policies have been introduced [58][59][60]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market trend**: The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon are oscillating upwards. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed. The market is affected by potential electricity price increases and other factors [63][64][65]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation with accumulating contradictions. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed [67]. Logs - **Market performance**: The log price is oscillating at a low level. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of log futures and spot have changed [70][71][73]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market trend**: p - Xylene is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is in a high - level oscillation, and MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant products have changed, and market news affects the market [74][75][76]. Rubber - **Market situation**: The rubber price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the rubber cost support is strengthening [79][80][81]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market performance**: The short - term center of synthetic rubber moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of synthetic rubber futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by the cost of butadiene [82][83][84]. LLDPE - **Market trend**: The LLDPE price is firm, and the standard product production decreases. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LLDPE futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and supply - demand relationships [85][86]. PP - **Market situation**: The PP price is weak. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PP futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by cost and demand [88][89]. Caustic Soda - **Market performance**: Caustic soda is strong in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of caustic soda futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as delivery and supply - demand [90][91][92]. Pulp - **Market trend**: The pulp price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pulp futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and demand [95][97][98]. Glass - **Market situation**: The glass price is stable. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of glass futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by the holiday atmosphere and demand [100][101]. Methanol - **Market performance**: Methanol is strong in the short - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of methanol futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations [103][104][106]. Urea - **Market situation**: The urea price center moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of urea futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as demand expectations and inventory [108][109][110]. Styrene - **Market trend**: Styrene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of styrene futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as valuation and supply - demand [113][114][115]. Soda Ash - **Market situation**: The soda ash market changes little. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soda ash futures and spot have changed [117][119]. LPG and Propylene - **Market performance**: The LPG import cost is firm, and propylene demand is stable with a slight price increase. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LPG and propylene futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [121]. PVC - **Market trend**: PVC is strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PVC futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory [129][130][131]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market situation**: Fuel oil turns strong and is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures and spot have changed [134]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market performance**: The 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and geopolitical events. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant contracts have changed, and the shipping capacity and freight rates have also been affected [136][142][143]. Agricultural Products Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market situation**: Short - fiber and bottle chip are in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures and spot have changed [146][147]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market performance**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of offset printing paper futures and spot have changed, and the market demand is weak [149][150][152]. Pure Benzene - **Market situation**: Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pure benzene futures and spot have changed, and the port inventory has increased [153][154]. Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Market performance**: Palm oil is affected by macro - emotions, soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, and rapeseed oil shows corresponding price changes. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [157][158][159]. Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Market situation**: Soybean meal may oscillate, and soybeans are in an oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as Chinese purchases and USDA reports [162][163][164]. Corn - **Market performance**: Attention should be paid to the corn spot. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of corn futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot prices and import information [165][166][167]. Sugar - **Market situation**: Sugar is in a low - level consolidation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of sugar futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as production and import [169][170][171]. Cotton - **Market performance**: Cotton remains strong. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot trading and textile enterprise operations [174][175]. Eggs - **Market situation**: The far - month sentiment of eggs weakens. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of egg futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [178]. Hogs - **Market performance**: There is still inventory accumulation for hogs. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of hog futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [181][183][184]. Peanuts - **Market situation**: Peanuts are in an oscillating operation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the spot market price is relatively stable [187][188].

据商务部消息，根据《中华人民共和国出口管制法》等法律法规有关规定，为维护国家安全和利益、履 行防扩散等国际义务，决定加强两用物项对日本出口管制。现将有关事项公告如下： 禁止所有两用物项对日本军事用户、军事用途，以及一切有助于提升日本军事实力的其他最终用户用途 出口。 任何国家和地区的组织和个人，违反上述规定，将原产于中华人民共和国的相关两用物项转移或提供给 日本的组织和个人，将依法追究法律责任。 消息人士：中方正研究收紧对日稀土出口许可审查 中国日报援引可靠消息人士称，鉴于日本近期恶劣表现，中国政府正考虑针对性收紧2025年4月4日列管 的中重稀土相关物项出口许可审查。 2025年4月4日，根据《中华人民共和国出口管制法》等有关法律法规，商务部会同海关总署发布关于对 钐、钆、铽、镝、镥、钪、钇等7类中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制措施的公告，并于发布之日起正式 实施。 【头条要闻】 商务部：加强两用物项对日本出口管制 中方提醒：日本应完全解除武装！ 据报道，日本首相高市早苗日前称将以年内修订"安保三文件"为目标。外交部发言人毛宁1月6日在例行 记者会上表示，这反映出日本加速推进"再军事化"的危险动向，国际社会必须 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

2026年伊始，A股业绩预告帷幕拉开。盐湖股份、天赐材料、华菱钢铁、首钢股份、孩子王、传化智联 等一批深市代表性公司率先交出2025年度业绩"预增"答卷，为市场注入暖意。 初步统计显示，这些公司预计净利润同比增幅均超过25%，最高增幅超300%，呈现出强劲的增长动 能。 尽管所属行业各异，涵盖资源化工、新能源材料、钢铁制造、消费服务、现代物流等多个领域，但业绩 向好的背后，折射出共同的驱动力：通过核心技术突破构筑壁垒、依托智能化与绿色化推动产业升级、 借助资本市场工具优化治理，以及敏锐捕捉新消费与新科技趋势。 业内人士认为，这深刻诠释了经济结构转型期中，优质上市公司如何凭借内生韧性与创新活力实现高质 量发展。 景气度回升龙头凭核心优势领跑 "高端化+智能化"重塑竞争力 在新能源产业链上游，新一轮景气周期正在启动。具备核心资源储备与显著技术优势的龙头企业，成为 此轮行业上行最直接的受益者，业绩弹性得到充分体现。 盐湖股份预计，2025年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润82.9亿元至88.9亿元，同比增长77.78%至 90.65%。 据公司相关负责人介绍，业绩增长主要得益于钾肥和碳酸锂两大核心产品产销稳定、价格回 ...

每经编辑｜吴永久 2026年A股首个交易日，市场迎来"开门红"，脑机接口、保险、军工、贵金属等多个板块表现出色。截至收盘，沪指涨1.38%，收报4023.42点。沪深两市成 交额达到25675亿元，较上一交易日大幅放量5016亿元。 由每日经济新闻App举办的掘金大赛第81期比赛于1月5日开始，多位选手跑步入场。报名时间为1月1日到1月16日，比赛时间为1月5日到1月16日。大赛为模 拟炒股，模拟资金50万元。每期比赛结束，正收益就获现金奖励！报名就拿福利！冲刺月度积分王大奖！ 每期比赛的税前现金奖励为：第1名奖励688元，第2~4名奖励188元/人，第5~10名奖励88元/人，其余正收益选手均分500元正收益奖。月度积分王的税前现 金奖励为：第1名奖励888元，第2~4名奖励288元/人，第5~10名奖励188元/人，第11~30名奖励68元/人，第31~100名奖励18元/人。 为方便选手了解有价值的信息，与高手交流市场热点和投资技巧。报名掘金大赛后，就能申请加入掘金大赛交流群，加群方法是：点击微信主页右上 角"+"号，选择"添加朋友"，然后点击"企业微信联系人"，输入手机号13882019385，添加企 ...

在新能源产业链上游，新一轮景气周期正在启动。具备核心资源储备与显著技术优势的龙头企业，成为此轮行业上行最直接的受益者，业绩弹 性得到充分体现。 盐湖股份预计，2025年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润82.9亿元至88.9亿元，同比增长77.78%至90.65%。 2026年伊始，A股业绩预告帷幕拉开。盐湖股份、天赐材料、华菱钢铁、首钢股份、孩子王、传化智联等一批深市代表性公司率先交出2025年 度业绩"预增"答卷，为市场注入暖意。 初步统计显示，这些公司预计净利润同比增幅均超过25%，最高增幅超300%，呈现出强劲的增长动能。 尽管所属行业各异，涵盖资源化工、新能源材料、钢铁制造、消费服务、现代物流等多个领域，但业绩向好的背后，折射出共同的驱动力：通 过核心技术突破构筑壁垒、依托智能化与绿色化推动产业升级、借助资本市场工具优化治理，以及敏锐捕捉新消费与新科技趋势。 业内人士认为，这深刻诠释了经济结构转型期中，优质上市公司如何凭借内生韧性与创新活力实现高质量发展。景气度回升龙头凭核心优势领 跑 据公司相关负责人介绍，业绩增长主要得益于钾肥和碳酸锂两大核心产品产销稳定、价格回暖，以及新建锂盐项目的顺利推进。 20 ...