1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated March 31, 2026, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: Inventory accumulation is slowing, and the ore end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between demand and cost, and steel prices are oscillating [2][5] Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,120, with various changes in other indicators like volume and prices of related products [5] - For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,370, with corresponding changes in volume and other related prices [5] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore as a new revenue source for the mining industry [5] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala [6] - Indonesia's approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons [7] - Philippine miners expect the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore to double [8] Inventory Tracking - On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons, while LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons [11] - On March 26, SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons [11] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2][14] Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 171,620, with changes in volume, open interest, and other related indicators [15] Macro and Industry News - Germany's federal government passed a climate protection plan, adding €8 billion in the next 4 years to achieve emission reduction goals [16] - The International Civil Aviation Organization issued new regulations on lithium - battery power banks [17] Group 4: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption of production by upstream enterprises [2][19] - Polysilicon: Continue to oscillate and bottom - out [2][19] Fundamental Data - For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price was 8,480 yuan/ton, with changes in volume, open interest, and other related indicators [19] - For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price was 36,550 yuan/ton, with corresponding changes in volume and open interest [19] Macro and Industry News - The Cambodian government significantly reduced customs import and export taxes on various commodities, including solar systems and new - energy vehicles [19][21] Group 5: Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [12] - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [17] - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [21]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures, dated March 30, 2026 [1] Industry and Product Ratings - Nickel: Inventory accumulation slows marginally, and the ore end supports the upward shift of pyrometallurgical costs [2][4] - Stainless steel: Demand and cost are in a game, and steel prices fluctuate [2][5] - Lithium carbonate: Ore - end situations are fermenting, and attention should be paid to the impact of market sentiment [2][14] - Industrial silicon: The upside space is limited [2][17] - Polysilicon: In a pattern of bottom - seeking through fluctuations [2][18] Core Views - Different commodities in the green finance and new energy fields have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, nickel is affected by ore - end cost and inventory, stainless steel by demand - cost game, lithium carbonate by ore - end situations and market sentiment, industrial silicon by limited upside space, and polysilicon by a bottom - seeking pattern [2] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,100 yuan, with a change compared to different time periods (e.g., +3,940 yuan compared to T - 5). The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 316,027 lots, showing a decrease of 96,279 lots compared to T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 14,390 yuan, and the trading volume was 177,353 lots [5] News - Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore. The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala. ESDM has relevant production quota information, and there are also events such as mine accidents and company sanctions in Indonesia [5][6][8][9] Inventory - On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons. SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons [11] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [12] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 168,440 yuan, with corresponding changes in trading volume and open interest compared to different time periods. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan, showing price changes over different time intervals [14] News - Ford recalls 254,640 cars in the US. The escalation of the Middle East conflict leads to a shortage of natural gas supply in India, affecting the automotive industry [15][16] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2605 contract for industrial silicon was 8,625 yuan/ton, and for the PS2605 contract of polysilicon was 35,680 yuan/ton. There are corresponding data on trading volume, open interest, basis, price, and profit for both [18] News - Xinjiang holds a symposium on intellectual property protection in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to promote the in - depth integration of intellectual property protection and industrial innovation in the photovoltaic industry [18] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Aluminum - The current oversupply situation in the aluminum market has not been substantially reversed. Short - term strategy is to maintain a bearish view on rallies. For long - term, the global supply growth elasticity is limited, and the long - term bullish logic remains valid. The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate widely with macro - sentiment and geopolitical news, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract expected to trade between 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term raw material cost at a high level strongly supports the ADC12 price, but the demand follows slowly and the negative feedback effect of high prices is emerging. The market is expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [2]. Copper - In the short - term, the copper price is in an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved and the inventory pressure has weakened. The medium - to - long - term logic of copper supply - demand contradiction has not changed significantly. The short - term adjustment may provide an opportunity for long - term long positions, but the price is still suppressed before the market risk appetite recovers significantly. The main focus is on the pressure around 97,000 - 98,000 yuan/ton [3]. Zinc - In the context of supply improvement, high inventory, and limited macro - bullish factors, the zinc price is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the zinc ore TC, marginal changes in demand, and macro - indicators, with the main focus on the support around 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton [5]. Nickel - The news of Indonesia's export tax has a short - term positive impact on sentiment. The macro - expectation is volatile. The contradiction in the raw material end supports the price, but the insufficient digestion of actual inventory is a constraint. The disk is expected to run in a strong range, with the main contract reference range of 134,000 - 142,000 yuan/ton [7]. Stainless Steel - Recently, the cost logic of stainless steel is strong. The news fermentation and the tight raw material end in reality provide support. The steel mill production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 14,800 yuan/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The war expectation is volatile, and the macro - sentiment has weakened again. The fundamentals are resilient but the marginal driving force is weakening. The mine - end disturbance still has room for fermentation, and the bottom support is still strong. It is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 150,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - The US - Iran conflict is at a stalemate, and the market risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced, causing the tin price to fall. The medium - to - long - term bullish logic still exists. If there are signs of the conflict ending, long positions can be established on dips [14]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is facing the pressure of oversupply with expected production growth. The cost end strongly supports the bottom. It is expected to oscillate around 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to production control, environmental protection, and cost - end fluctuations [15]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to continue to fall. The market sentiment tends to trade for market - clearing, and the price is expected to fall towards the lowest cash cost. It is recommended to wait and see for now [17]. 3. Summaries by Directory Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.05% to 23,510 yuan/ton, and the alumina prices in different regions had small increases or remained unchanged [1]. Fundamental Data - In February, the production of alumina, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum import volume increased and the export volume decreased. The开工 rates of some aluminum - related industries increased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rods, as well as the inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants and alumina plants, showed different changes [1]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions decreased, and the price difference between Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 and A00 aluminum increased significantly [2]. Fundamental Data - In February, the production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots, as well as waste aluminum, decreased. The import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots also decreased. The开工 rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy industries decreased, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy showed a downward trend [2]. Copper Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.28% to 95,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 80.31% [3]. Fundamental Data - In February, the production and import volume of electrolytic copper decreased. The import copper concentrate index decreased, and the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased slightly. The开工 rates of electrolytic copper and scrap copper rod - making industries increased, and the global visible inventory started to decline this week [3]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.35% to 22,840 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased [5]. Fundamental Data - In February, the production of refined zinc decreased, the import volume decreased significantly, and the export volume increased. The开工 rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide industries increased, and the domestic zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased [5]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.12% to 139,350 yuan/ton, and the prices of some nickel - related products and cost data showed different changes [7]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production decreased, and the import volume increased significantly. The SHFE inventory decreased slightly, the social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [7]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged, and the futures - spot price difference increased [10]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased, while Indonesia's decreased. The import and export volumes of stainless steel increased significantly, and the 300 - series social inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts increased slightly [10]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 2.62% to 156,500 yuan/ton, and the prices of other lithium - related products also had different changes [12]. Fundamental Data - In February, the production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased, the import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased. The total inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory of lithium carbonate decreased [12]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.34% to 352,800 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased [14]. Fundamental Data - In February, the import of tin ore decreased, the production of refined tin decreased, the import volume increased, and the export volume decreased. The开工 rates of tin - related industries decreased, and the inventory of tin decreased [14]. Industrial Silicon Price and Spread - The prices of industrial silicon in different regions remained unchanged, and the futures price decreased slightly [15]. Fundamental Data - The national and regional production of industrial silicon decreased, the开工 rates decreased, the production of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon decreased, and the export volume decreased. The social inventory increased slightly [15]. Polysilicon Price and Spread - The average price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 1.85% to 39,750 yuan/ton, and the futures price decreased by 3.29% to 35,540 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - The production of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased, the import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers had different changes, and the inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased [17].

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated March 26, 2026, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2] 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - For nickel, there are contradictions and differences between the macro and the ore end, and the short - term long - short game has intensified; for stainless steel, it is suppressed by overseas macro factors while supported by the actual cost [2][4] Fundamental Data - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,130, with a change of 2,650 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,490, with a change of 200 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 460,381, and that of the stainless steel main contract was 295,952 [4] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 134,700, the Russian nickel premium was - 250, and the nickel bean premium was 500. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,083, and the nickel plate - high - nickel iron price difference was 264 [4] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [4] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [5] - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million and 270 million tons, and PT Weda Bay Nickel's production and sales quota is reduced by 70% compared to 2025 [7][9] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [11] 2. Lithium Carbonate Core View - Attention should be paid to the actual demand [12] Fundamental Data - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 159,120, with a change of 6,180 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 233,304, and the open interest was 251,957 [14] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,500, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,500 [14] Macro and Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a seminar on the construction of the new - energy vehicle waste power battery recycling system [15] - Wengfu Group raised the ex - factory price of wet - process 85 phosphoric acid by 500 yuan/ton on March 25, 2026, with a cumulative increase of 1,200 yuan/ton in March [16] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [16] 3. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the boost from news; polysilicon is in a state of bottom - seeking oscillation [17][18] Fundamental Data - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,770, with a change of 165 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 217,959, and the open interest was 232,078. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 36,750, with a change of 1,020 compared to T - 1 [18] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon was 8,550, the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 9,900, and the price of polysilicon N - type re - feed was 40,500 [18] Macro and Industry News - In February 2026, the wind power mechanism electricity price settlement reference price in Shandong Province decreased by 16.64% month - on - month, and the photovoltaic mechanism electricity price settlement reference price decreased by 64.83% month - on - month [19][20] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, global risk appetite continues to recover. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the intertwined geopolitical news in the Middle - East, the stock index fluctuates weakly in the short term and the volatility intensifies. After the US released signals of easing and cease - fire, the domestic stock index market recovered. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends. The stock index fluctuates weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; treasury bonds fluctuate in the short term, and cautious waiting is recommended; the black commodity sector rebounds in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; the non - ferrous sector fluctuates weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; the energy and chemical sector fluctuates greatly in the short term, and cautious long - positions are recommended; precious metals fluctuate greatly and rebound in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: Affected by new rumors of a cease - fire between the US and Iran, international oil prices declined in the short term, and the US dollar index and US bond yields declined but remained at relatively high levels. Global risk appetite increased overall. - Domestic: From January to February, China's economy rebounded beyond expectations, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation was better than expected. The government work report put forward the main expected development goals and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall goals and policy intensity lower than in 2025 [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as military equipment, electricity, and trade, the domestic stock market rebounded significantly. In the short term, due to the intertwined geopolitical news in the Middle - East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and the volatility intensifies. After the US released signals of easing and cease - fire, the domestic stock index market recovered. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market rebounded on Tuesday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 982.90 yuan/gram, up 0.37%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 17,245 yuan/kilogram, up 1.93%. Spot gold ended a nine - day losing streak and rose 1.54% to 4,474.31 US dollars/ounce; spot silver rose 2.8% to 71.05 US dollars/ounce. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Tuesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets fluctuated weakly, and the trading volume was at a low level. The real demand is still weak, the steel inventory has peaked and declined, but the growth rate of the apparent consumption of the five major varieties has slowed down. After the important meeting, the output of the five major varieties of steel increased by 188,500 tons week - on - week, and the hot - metal output increased by nearly 69,000 tons. In the short term, the steel market will still follow the cost, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost drops [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. The rebound in crude oil prices boosted the ore price. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the problem of short - term supply - demand mismatch is gradually alleviated. It is expected that the room for further price increase of ore is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - term adjustment risk after the energy price weakens [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded; the futures prices showed a differentiated trend, with silicon iron being slightly stronger. The rebound in energy prices still supports the ferroalloy prices. The spot price of manganese ore remains firm. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are recommended to be treated with a bullish - biased shock mindset [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The market focus is on the Middle - East situation. The spot TC of copper is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. By - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, and the copper mine is generally considered to be in short supply, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high. The domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate, and the downstream replenished stocks intensively at low prices [8]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the risk appetite recovered, and Shanghai aluminum rebounded. The easing of the Middle - East situation is actually bearish for aluminum, and the supply of aluminum in the Middle - East will increase, so the rebound strength of aluminum is weaker than that of other non - ferrous metals. The LME aluminum has fallen near the rising trend line. The year - on - year increase in domestic primary aluminum production from January to February is relatively large, and the pattern of "domestic weakness and foreign strength" may change temporarily [9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fees in the southern and northern regions of China have changed. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product revenues make up for the losses. The overseas smelting plants will resume production in 2026. The demand is not optimistic, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased seasonally [9]. - **Lead**: From January to February, the imports of refined lead and crude lead in China increased significantly. The domestic production of primary lead and secondary lead has recovered seasonally. The demand peak season has passed, and it is gradually entering the off - season. The domestic social inventory of primary lead has decreased [10]. - **Nickel**: The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement, but the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. The supply of MHP is at risk of decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside space is limited by high domestic and foreign inventories [11]. - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar and other sources have increased. The demand is not good overall, and the industry is significantly differentiated. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased, while the LME inventory has increased [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 6.11%. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and long - positions can be established at low prices [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.17%. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. Attention should be paid to the cost support below, and range - bound operations are recommended [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of polysilicon fell 3.17%. The polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously or profits should be taken in a timely manner [14][15]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol spot price index is 2676.38, up 32.04. The supply has tightened, and the supply - demand fundamentals have been repaired. The methanol price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought about by geopolitical easing and downstream negative feedback [16]. - **PP**: The domestic polypropylene parking rate has increased, the upstream supply has shrunk, and the downstream demand has increased. The spot market shows signs of tightness, and it is expected that the market will maintain a strong pattern. The biggest uncertainty lies in the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [16]. - **LLDPE**: The supply has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has been depleted rapidly. It is expected that polyethylene will continue to run strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting external supply [17]. - **Urea**: The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural demand and strong industrial demand". The policy guides the market, and the urea price is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [18]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The stability of Sino - US soybean trade relations has been disturbed, and the export and sales data of high - priced US soybeans have deteriorated. The US biodiesel policy will be finalized soon, and the trading sentiment of US soybean oil is cautious [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The supply of rapeseed meal is increasing, and it will adjust with soybean meal in the short term [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting the basis. The supply of rapeseed oil may increase, and it will be under pressure with soybean and palm oil [21]. - **Palm Oil**: The international crude oil is oscillating at a high level, and the support for vegetable oils from crude oil risk has weakened. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the production has decreased. The domestic palm oil import is slow, and the market trading is light [21]. - **Corn**: The corn price is adjusting within a narrow range. The sales progress of corn in the production areas has slowed down, and the inventory in ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. The acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises has decreased, and the possible rice bran auction in early April may have a negative impact on the corn price [22]. - **Pigs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is improving marginally but is still in the off - season. The industry's production capacity reduction expectation is increasing. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are still risks in the futures market [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: There are contradictions and differences between the macro - environment and the mining end, and the short - term long - short game intensifies [2][4]. - Stainless steel: Overseas macro factors exert pressure, while the actual cost provides support [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][12]. - Industrial silicon: The cost is on the rise [2][17]. - Polysilicon: The spot price is falling [2][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 133,160, with a change of 1,610 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,065, with a change of 210 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, prices of related products, and spreads are also presented [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian government will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore in early 2026, considering cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection; a Swiss company plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala; the approved nickel - ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million and 270 million tons; some companies' production and operations are affected by various factors such as landslides, fuel shortages, and sanctions [4][5][7][8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract is 143,860, with a change of 1,260 compared to T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related lithium - salt products are also provided [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Xiaomi's new - generation SU7 locked 15,000 orders in 34 minutes after its release; in 2025, China implemented 190 vehicle recalls, involving 6.846 million vehicles, with a decline in both the number of recalls and the number of affected vehicles compared to the previous year [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,455, with a change of 170 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the PS2605 contract is 37,765, with a change of - 785 compared to T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In February 2026, China's industrial silicon exports were 47,520.111 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7.53% and a month - on - month decrease of 27.44%. The cumulative export volume from January to February was 113,008 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 16.88% [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and the trend intensity of polysilicon is - 1 (weakly bearish) [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].