Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant growth and global expansion of China's lithium battery industry, highlighting the need for companies to adopt a more rational and cautious approach to overseas ventures, balancing policy, market, and cost considerations [4][42]. Group 1: Lithium Battery Segment - CATL's overseas revenue reached 61.208 billion yuan in the first half of the year, accounting for 34.22% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 21.14% [8]. - BYD exported 89.9 GWh of power batteries and energy storage systems in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 58.4%, capturing a global market share of 17.8% [9][10]. - EVE Energy's overseas revenue for the first half of 2025 was 6.969 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.05%, with a gross margin of 21.71% [11]. - Guoxuan High-Tech's overseas revenue was 6.4 billion yuan, accounting for 33% of total revenue, with a focus on expanding production capacity in Thailand, Vietnam, and Morocco [13][14]. - A new trend in the industry is the shift from simple product exports to comprehensive overseas strategies, including technology, capital, and project investments [43]. Group 2: Positive Developments in the Industry - The article notes that many leading lithium battery companies have overcome previous overcapacity issues and are now experiencing full order books for overseas factories, such as CATL's German factory and EVE Energy's Indonesian project [44]. - The article highlights the supportive policies from Chinese customs to facilitate the export of lithium batteries, which are classified as hazardous goods [45]. - Southeast Asia is identified as a key market for lithium battery companies, with favorable policies and abundant resources, making it an attractive base for expansion [46]. Group 3: Emerging Markets and Strategic Considerations - The article discusses the complexities of entering European and North American markets, where Chinese companies face high barriers but also opportunities due to the lack of established local supply chains [46]. - Emerging markets in Africa, the Middle East, and South America are seen as important areas for energy storage and solar power projects, requiring companies to understand local regulations and policies [47].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the lithium battery export industry, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the coming years [10][11][12]. Core Insights - The total export value of Chinese lithium batteries is projected to grow from USD 159.43 billion in 2020 to USD 902.94 billion by 2029, with a notable growth rate of 78.37% in 2021 and 79.05% in 2022 [10][11]. - The export amounts to the US, Germany, South Korea, Vietnam, and India are expected to increase significantly, with the total export value reaching USD 5.29 trillion by 2029 [11][96]. - The average export price of lithium batteries to the US is anticipated to rise from USD 14.67 in 2020 to USD 186.48 by 2029, reflecting a substantial increase in value [20][26]. - The report highlights a shift in export dynamics, with a growing share of exports directed towards the US, which is expected to account for 26% of total exports by 2029 [102]. Summary by Sections Export Value Overview - The export value of Chinese lithium batteries is forecasted to reach USD 650.09 billion in 2023, with a slight decline in 2024 to USD 611.1 billion, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [10][11]. - The total export value to key markets (US, Germany, South Korea, Vietnam, India) is projected to grow from USD 760.64 billion in 2020 to USD 5.29 trillion by 2029, with a peak growth rate of 98.56% in 2021 [11][96]. Export Quantity and Price Analysis - The quantity of lithium batteries exported to the US is expected to decline from 33,554.8 million units in 2021 to 9,793.91 million units by 2029, indicating a shift in market dynamics [14][28]. - The average export price to Germany is projected to fluctuate, with an increase from USD 24.52 in 2020 to USD 67.76 by 2029, influenced by local production policies [37][45]. Market Share Insights - The report indicates that the share of lithium battery exports to the US will increase from 15.59% in 2020 to 26% by 2029, reflecting a strategic focus on this market [102]. - The share of exports to Germany is expected to stabilize around 13% by 2029, showing a more competitive landscape in the European market [106].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the lithium battery export industry Core Insights - The lithium battery export industry refers to the expansion of Chinese lithium battery companies into overseas markets, covering the production and sales of both power and energy storage batteries, with significant growth driven by global energy transition and surging demand in electric vehicles and energy storage markets [3][4][36] - The industry is characterized by deepening internationalization, collaboration among equipment manufacturers, and challenges such as demand slowdown and increasing trade barriers [10][11][12] Summary by Sections Industry Definition - The lithium battery export industry encompasses the global production and sales of power and energy storage batteries by Chinese companies, involving overseas manufacturing, supply, equipment exports, and international collaborations [4] Industry Classification - The industry can be classified based on the method of overseas expansion, which includes overseas supply and overseas manufacturing [5][6] Overseas Supply - In 2024, China exported 3.91 billion lithium batteries worth $61.12 billion, with overseas supply remaining the mainstream approach, especially for emerging markets [7] Overseas Manufacturing - Over 20 lithium battery companies have established manufacturing bases overseas, particularly in response to local production requirements driven by policies like the US IRA [8] Industry Characteristics - Key characteristics include deepening internationalization, the export of lithium battery equipment manufacturers, and challenges from demand slowdown and trade barriers [10] Development History - The industry has evolved from primarily overseas supply before 2020 to accelerated overseas capacity layout post-2020, with significant investments in manufacturing bases abroad [15][17] Industry Chain Analysis - The lithium battery export industry chain includes upstream material and equipment manufacturers, midstream battery manufacturers, and downstream customers in the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors [19][20] Market Size - The market size of the lithium battery export industry grew from $15.943 billion in 2020 to $61.110 billion in 2024, with a projected CAGR of 39.92% [36] Future Market Changes - Future changes in the market are influenced by global energy transition, technological innovation, and policy support, with expectations of continued growth in overseas demand for energy storage solutions [41][42][44] Competitive Landscape - Leading companies like CATL and BYD dominate the market due to their technological advancements, scale effects, and comprehensive supply chains, with emerging players like EVE Energy and Guoxuan High-Tech also gaining market share [47][49]