锂电产业链周期复盘梳理 20251214 摘要 当前锂电板块估值相对较低，多数企业明年涨价后估值在 20 倍左右， 六氟磷酸锂约为 10 倍，固态电池产业化预期抑制投资，但可能助力产 业发展，明年 3 月行业基本面或有较大变化，短期调整或是买入机会。 本轮碳酸锂周期与上一轮相比，未经历供给持续出清，期货工具加剧价 格波动，需求端驱动因素来自储能，但碳酸锂供需极易扭转，新资源开 发抬升成本底部中枢至 6 万元以上，大型公司资本开支强度大，小型公 司更易达成目标。 和电子厂在 20-30 万左右锁定了较高比例的长单。这一轮龙头公司签订锁价长 单的概率不大。 铁锂加工费在 2021 年一季度开始持续上涨，一直持续到 2022 年一季度，大约一年多时间窗口内出现明显加速。这主要由于行业景气 度提升及上游磷酸铁价格上涨所致。从企业盈利来看，21 年四季度和 22 年一 季度是铁锂盈利上行最快阶段。本轮铁锂基本面紧张且盈利分位较低，有强烈 的涨价和传导成本诉求。明年的预期是铁锂上游磷酸铁价格传导及资源品价格 上涨带来弹性。 负极材料方面，在 21 年前石墨化略有上涨，但幅度不明显， 下半年开始加速并持续到 23 年高位。 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental protection sectors [1]. Core Views - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the application of green electricity and promotes the development of hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and energy storage, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in green energy sectors in 2026 [3]. - Domestic energy storage saw significant growth in November, with newly installed capacity reaching 4.51GW/13.03GWh, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 57.14% in power and 74.66% in capacity [3][7]. - The report highlights the importance of hydrogen and green fuels as new growth points, with expectations for increased investment in these areas due to supportive policies and market conditions [4]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage is experiencing a boom, with November's new installations showing a 45.95% year-on-year increase in power and a 49.6% increase in capacity [3][7]. - The report anticipates that independent energy storage tenders will maintain a good level in 2026, supported by a complete revenue model through energy markets and auxiliary services [3]. Hydrogen and Green Fuels - The report suggests that hydrogen and methanol will play a crucial role in the non-electric applications of green electricity, with significant investment expected in these areas [4]. - The development of zero-carbon parks and factories is also highlighted as a key initiative for 2026 [3]. Wind Power - The report notes that in 2024, onshore wind power installations are expected to reach 75.8GW, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%, while offshore wind installations are projected to be 4.0GW, a decrease of 40.85% [8]. - The bidding capacity for wind power equipment in 2024 is expected to be 164.1GW, a 90% increase year-on-year [13]. Lithium Battery - The report indicates that the demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with December's retail sales of new energy vehicles expected to show a bright performance despite a year-on-year decline of 17% [19]. - The supply chain for lithium batteries is expected to stabilize, with ongoing negotiations for long-term contracts and price adjustments [22][23].

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤锂电 资讯~ 本文来源：鑫椤锂电 行业热点新闻 Liontown将向天华新能供应15万吨锂精矿 澳大利亚锂矿商Liontown公司周二（12月9日）宣布，已签署一项购销协议，将于2027年至2028年期间 向中国锂化工制造商天华新能（300390.SZ）(Canmax Technologies) 供应15万湿公吨锂辉石精矿，该 精矿来自其Kathleen Valley项目。 钴价年内涨幅150%！刚果（金）出口迟迟未恢复，10%特许费又添变数 全球最大钴供应国刚果（金）自10月中旬以出口配额制取代禁令以来，钴产品出口仍未恢复。新增的特许 权使用费核算方式和复杂审批流程， 叠加钴价自年初低谷以来上涨150%， 供应链不确定性持续提高。 根据新出口规定，刚果（金）要求钴出口商在申报后48小时内预付10%的特许权使用费，并取得由刚果 （金）战略矿产市场监管局（ARECOMS）签发的强制性配额核查证书（AVQ）方可发运。 莫桑比克耗资逾1亿美元的石墨新工厂即将建成，石墨年产能约20万吨 据莫桑比克总统兼党主席丹尼尔·沙波（er Daniel ...

回调即买点，再再 call 储能产业链 20251211 摘要 上游电芯厂最近发布了约 15%的涨价通知，主要原因是下游排产旺盛导致需求 超预期，而非单纯原材料涨价。因此，涨价并不会抑制需求。从政策角度来看， 中国市场并不存在大家担心的政策变动问题。相反，一些省份陆续出台了补偿 政策，如湖南省出台了按充电量补偿每度电 3 毛钱的调峰补偿政策。这类补偿 措施提高了储能项目的经济性，使得峰谷套利收益率达到 7%以上。此外，多 2025 年四季度六氟磷酸锂和 VC 现货价格大幅上涨，大客户反馈良好， 业绩反转明显。预计该趋势持续至 2026 年一季度，并扩展至其他中游 材料，如铁锂、隔膜、铜箔等。 未来具有良好投资前景的中游材料包括储能电芯、六氟磷酸锂、隔膜、 碳酸锂以及铁锂正极。在龙头主导格局明显的赛道上，如结构件和铝箔， 也推荐关注龙头公司。 上游电芯厂涨价主要因需求超预期，而非原材料涨价，预计不会抑制储 能需求。湖南等省份出台调峰补偿政策，提高储能项目经济性，峰谷套 利收益率达 7%以上，验证国内政策支持力度。 全球储能需求强劲，除美国外，意大利、智利、巴西等地通过招标及自 建项目推动发展，预计到 2027 ...

六氟磷酸锂市场需求旺盛，库存低，二三线客户款到发货，大客户月度 议价，显示市场对该产品需求强劲，价格传导机制有效，虽有滞后性， 但整体定价机制明确。 隔膜行业固定资产周转率极低，扩产能力有限，但需求保持增长，供需 关系持续向好。市场对隔膜行业回报率和可持续性存在疑虑，但若能提 高净利润率和总资产周转率，仍有很大发展空间。 隔膜行业扩展周期长，需一年半以上，设备主要依赖进口，扩产意愿较 低。佛塑科技新增产能采用最新自动化设备，技术上具有优势，总产能 将达到 65 亿平米以上。 5 微米隔膜技术是重要结构性迭代，渗透率快速提升，但受限于供给， 技术门槛高，将拉开企业间差距，可能显著提升相关企业盈利能力。市 场普遍认为隔膜价格上涨 15%左右，但实际涨幅更高，小型电池厂家涨 幅超过 40%。 未来需求端需关注汽车、储能和海外市场，特别是地方政府补贴政策变 化、新车型发布、全国性容量电价或补贴政策出台，以及大规模储能需 求和工商储、数据中心配储等新兴需求。 Q&A 当前锂电材料行业的市场情况和未来展望如何？ 锂电材料行业目前整体表现出较强的市场前景，尤其在六氟磷酸锂、隔膜、电 解液等领域。我们坚定看好六氟磷酸锂，其确 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is poised for a significant growth cycle starting in 2026, characterized by strong demand recovery, accelerated global expansion, and disruptive technological advancements, leading to a "spiral rise" in both volume and price [3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - By 2025, global lithium battery production is expected to reach 2250 GWh, with a growth rate of 30% in 2026, and the energy storage sector projected to grow by 48.3%, driven by both domestic and international demand [5]. - There is a notable supply gap in the production of battery cells and key materials, making supply chain stability and efficiency crucial for capitalizing on this growth opportunity [5]. Group 2: Conference Details - The 2026 Lithium Battery Key Materials and Applications Market Summit will be held on March 19-20, 2026, in Changzhou, Jiangsu, organized by Xinluo Information [4]. - The summit will focus on three core topics: in-depth discussions on cutting-edge technologies and market supply-demand dynamics, the release of the authoritative 2025 lithium battery brand rankings, and B2B procurement matchmaking [5][6][7]. Group 3: Key Topics and Participants - The main forum will cover lithium carbonate fundamentals and supply-demand outlook, advancements in solid-state battery electrolytes, and high-performance electrolyte research [9]. - Notable participants include Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Liyang Zhongke Solid Energy New Technology Co., and various leading battery manufacturers and material suppliers [9][10]. Group 4: Participation and Sponsorship - The participation fee is set at 2800 yuan per person, with limited free attendance available for the first 200 registrants [16]. - Sponsorship opportunities are available for companies interested in participating in the event [16].

50亿元、60亿元、450亿元……锂电产业链中游材料企业披露的订单预计总金额"扶摇直上"。在经历了 一轮剧烈的价格与产能周期波动后，锂电池产业链正掀起一场以"长期协议"为核心的订单潮。 上海证券报记者多方采访获悉，与上一轮单纯追逐规模扩张不同，本轮"长协订单潮"呈现订单规模更 大、绑定更深、机制更市场化且高度聚焦于供应链安全与合规性的新特征。 上海有色网锂电分析师杨玏表示，这不仅是供需关系阶段性转暖的信号，也是一场"温和但持续"的行业 洗牌，标志着锂电产业从野蛮生长迈向理性、协同、高质量发展的新阶段。 今年以来，多家锂电产业链中游材料企业相继披露大额采购协议，涵盖正极、电解液、铜箔、隔膜等关 键环节，订单金额动辄数十亿元至数百亿元。宁德时代、中创新航、LGES等海内外巨头加速锁定供 应，反映出行业对需求的乐观预期。 值得注意的是，驱动此轮长协签约的需求结构发生了深刻变化。杨玏分析，目前长协签约的驱动因素不 再仅由乘用车市场主导，已转变为"动力+储能"的结构。储能端无疑是这轮"长协订单潮"的主角。 TrendForce集邦咨询分析师曾佑鹏对上海证券报记者表示，需求的增长主要受储能和动力市场双轮驱 动，尤其是储能 ...

"宁波膜智信息科技有限公司"为势银（TrendBank）唯一工商注册实体及收款账户 添加文末微信，加 燃料电池 群 目前， 彭州绿氢中心 已正式启动 CNAS实验室认证工作 ，致力于打造更具独立性、权威性、公信力的核心部件测试平台，为氢能产业链上的企 业、高校与科研机构提供可信赖的验证能力，助力"领跑者"行动计划落地见效。 而在行业迈向高电流密度、长周期稳定性的新阶段，彭州绿氢中心同步升级测试能力和服务体系， 不仅可做到测试数据本地实时采集，还可结合 SCADA远程监控 ，实现核心部件从电化学性能，到耐久、能耗、启停性能等，多维数据精准可溯，为电解水制氢核心零部件企业提供了坚实可靠 的性能验证支撑。 夯实氢能装备工程化评估基础，实现验证能力跃升 时间，是无影无形的，但对于氢能装备检测来说，时间却是一份份的检测报告，是氢能装备质的"试炼石"。 彭州绿氢中心负责人表示："目前彭州绿氢中心已配备了多套工业级测试台架， 单套设备日产氢能力达50Nm³/h以上，支持超过6000小时的稳定 连续运行测试 。 " 势银年会： 2025势银氢燃年会（2026年1月6-8日，宁波） 点此报名 截至目前，彭州绿 氢中心 成功完成 ...

Group 1: Energy Storage - In November, domestic energy storage completed a total of 10GW/29.7GWh in bidding, with independent storage projects accounting for 90% of the total. The average bid price for 2/4h systems was 0.594/0.494 CNY/Wh, showing a slight decrease compared to October. It is expected that independent storage bidding will maintain a good level in 2026, supported by the development of the industry and a complete revenue model through energy, capacity, and ancillary service markets [4] - The logic for overseas energy storage continues to evolve, with the overall electricity shortage in the U.S. remaining unchanged. Future technological advancements are expected to be a key focus, with attention on overseas storage and SST opportunities. Demand for energy storage in non-U.S. countries is also anticipated to rise, such as in Middle Eastern data centers and Ukraine's reconstruction efforts [4] Group 2: Hydrogen and Ammonia - The Jilin Provincial Ecological Environment Department has accepted the environmental impact report for a project by Liao Yuan Tian Yi Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd., which aims to produce 180,000 tons of green methane annually. This project is part of the "wind-solar-storage-hydrogen-ammonia integration" series under a government framework agreement. The hydrogen and ammonia sector is expected to gain more investment due to dual benefits from China's future industries and the EU's carbon tariff in 2026 [5] Group 3: Lithium Battery - Production in December is expected to remain stable, with demand anticipated to improve in January. The market is currently negotiating on the demand side regarding domestic energy storage bidding expectations for 2026, while also monitoring the sales of new energy vehicles. On the supply side, the lithium battery industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" logic, establishing a trend of supply-demand improvement. Short-term expectations for lithium hexafluorophosphate are already high, and various segments are gradually entering long-term contract signing phases. Mid-term investment opportunities should focus on lithium mines with significant supply variability and membrane segments where profitability does not support expansion [6]

锂电 12 月排产数据发布 20251208 摘要 2025 年中国新能源车市场渗透率达 51.6%，销量 171.5 万辆；美国市 场渗透率降至 7.2%，销量 9.1 万辆，预计 2026 年销量将负增长至 140 万辆；欧洲 10 月渗透率约 30%，销量 31 万辆。 动力电池厂商竞争格局稳定，宁德时代和比亚迪领先，中创新航、亿纬 锂能、国轩高科等二线企业受益于储能订单，产能利用率高，预计 2026 年增速加大，LG 化学或面临被挤出前五的风险。 全球储能市场爆发，2025 年 1-10 月产量 469.83GWh，同比增长 67.77%，全年预计超 600GWh，增速超 70%。国内政策调整及海外 AI 数据中心和电网更新需求驱动增长，国内储能投资回报率约 8%- 12%。 2025 年 1-10 月磷酸铁锂产量 309.57 万吨，同比增长 65.21%；磷酸 铁产量 259.41 万吨，同比增长 70.37%；三元材料产量 83.07 万吨， 同比增长 3.9%。锰酸锂和钴酸锂分别同比增长 11%和 20%。 2025 年 1-10 月负极材料产量 237.6 万吨，同比增长 37.51%；电解 ...