碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 8 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2509 合约跌 4.66%至 68280 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价跌 950 元/ 吨至 72000 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价跌 950 元/吨至 69900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）上 涨 200 元/吨至 65670 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单集中注销，库存减少 7586 吨至 5545 吨。 2. 消息面，近期澳矿企业相继披露财报，多家企业产销环增，海外锂矿供给维持稳定充裕。昨日宁德 时代半年报业绩解读会上公司管理层表示其锂矿项目目前生产经营均正常，已在一个月前向省市提 交采矿权续期的中请材料，企业相对乐观。 3. 供应端，周度产量环比减少 1362 吨至 17268 吨，其中云母提锂降幅较大；进口方面，2025 年 6 月 中国碳酸锂进口数量为 1.77 万吨，环比减少 16.3%。需求端，7 月排产环比小幅增加，两大主材消 耗碳酸锂环比增加 3%至 8.08 万吨左右。库存端，周度库存环比减少 14 ...

Research Views - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.43% to 70,600 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 72,950 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 70,850 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 65,470 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 855 tons to 13,131 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the output in July is expected to increase by 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly output decreased by 485 tons to 18,630 tons. In terms of imports, China's lithium carbonate import volume in June 2025 was 17,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16.3%. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased by 550 tons to 143,170 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 1,544 tons to 42,815 tons, intermediate links increasing by 1,660 tons to 44,970 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing by 2,654 tons to 55,385 tons [3]. - The core contradiction in the short-term fundamentals lies in concerns about supply disruptions, but there is still no clear announcement. Affected by the overall market, market volatility is relatively large. Opportunities to short volatility in the subsequent market can be monitored, and attention should be paid to position management [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - The report presents a table of daily price data for various products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products. It shows price changes from July 29 - 30, 2025, such as the main contract closing price of futures dropping from 70,840 yuan/ton to 70,600 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreasing by 200 yuan/ton [5]. Chart Analysis Ore Prices - The report includes charts showing the price trends of lithium - related ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate stone (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - There are charts depicting the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. Price Spreads - Charts display the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related spreads from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][18]. Precursor & Cathode Materials - The report provides charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors (523, 622, 811), ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. Lithium Battery Prices - There are charts presenting the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links in the lithium carbonate industry from December 2024 to July 2025 [35][37][39]. Production Costs - A chart depicts the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]

Group 1 - As of July 29, 2025, the stock price of Shanshan Co., Ltd. is 9.92 yuan, down 0.22 yuan or 2.17% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 1.1763 million hands, with a total transaction amount of 1.169 billion yuan [1] - Shanshan Co., Ltd. is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of lithium-ion battery materials, including cathode materials, anode materials, and electrolytes [1] Group 2 - On July 29, a block trade occurred involving 2.8025 million shares, with a transaction amount of 26.0072 million yuan at a price of 9.28 yuan, representing a discount of 6.45% compared to the closing price [1] - This block trade accounted for 2.22% of the total transaction amount on that day [1] - On the same day, the net outflow of main funds was 298.8982 million yuan, which is 1.71% of the circulating market value [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is mainly supported by downstream purchases, but the production increase of cathode and battery factories in July is small, and the purchasing power mainly comes from traders with limited space. Due to the price rebound, the supply increase in July is large, deepening the oversupply situation and dragging down the price increase. There are no signs of production cuts in the ore segment. It is expected that the downward pressure on the futures price of lithium carbonate will intensify as the purchasing pace slows down [3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 63,300 yuan, with a daily increase of 400 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 61,700 yuan, with a daily increase of 400 yuan [1] - The closing prices and price changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts: Li2507 is 64,700 yuan, up 0.59%; Li2508 is 64,680 yuan, up 0.12%; Li2509 is 64,400 yuan, up 0.16%; Li2510 is 64,160 yuan, down 0.03%; Li2511 is 64,080 yuan, up 0.22% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 666 yuan, with a daily increase of 8 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 820 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1385 yuan, with a daily increase of 30 yuan; the average price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 4500 yuan, with a daily increase of 75 yuan; the average price of lithiophilite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 5340 yuan, with a daily increase of 80 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,950 yuan, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,780 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,955 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,255 yuan, with no change [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1100 yuan, with a change of - 120 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 280 yuan, with a change of - 80 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 520 yuan, with a change of 20 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 138,347 tons, with an increase of 1510 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,890 tons, with a decrease of 142 tons; the inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 40,497 tons, with a decrease of 138 tons; the inventory of other sources (weekly, tons) is 38,960 tons, with an increase of 1790 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 13,281 tons, with an increase of 626 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 62,506 yuan, and the profit is - 76 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 6886 yuan [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to further promote local processing [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Chemicals Industry Downturn**: The chemicals industry is experiencing a downturn with declining gross margins and profits, influenced by the Commodity Price Index (CCPI) and prices of coal and crude oil. The aviation product price spread indicates widespread losses across the industry, with no clear turning point in sight [1][2][4]. - **Global Economic Growth**: The global economic growth forecast for 2025 is 2.8%, a decline from the previous year. Developed countries face persistent high inflation, while emerging markets perform relatively better. The China-US trade war impacts chemical exports, limiting demand support [1][3][4]. Capital Expenditure and Capacity Expansion - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Although capital expenditure in the chemicals industry remains high, the growth rate has turned negative. Existing capacity will take time to digest, and no clear reversal opportunities are currently visible [1][5]. Sector-Specific Opportunities - **Focus on Sub-sectors**: At the bottom of the cycle, opportunities are seen in organic silicon and polyester filament. In the mid-cycle, potential growth areas include polyurethane refrigerants, certain pesticides, sweeteners, and photoinitiators. At high cycle levels, attention should be on the sustainability of titanium and phosphate resources [1][6]. - **Optimistic Outlook on Specific Products and Companies**: - Positive trends in cathode material prices and increased policy quotas are noted. - Refrigerant demand is expected to grow significantly, with companies like Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. being highlighted. - Potash fertilizer is anticipated to benefit from production cuts and seasonal price increases, presenting long-term opportunities [1][7]. Market Conditions and Future Trends - **Phosphate Chemical Market**: The phosphate chemical sector is currently experiencing high demand due to phosphate resource shortages. Despite new capacity, production is below expectations due to policy restrictions. Companies like Yuntianhua and Qihua Group are expected to maintain good profitability [1][9]. - **Pesticide Market Dynamics**: The pesticide industry is in a replenishment phase, with significant price increases for certain products due to supply constraints from industrial incidents. Products like benzoylurea and abamectin are highlighted for potential price increases [1][10]. - **Amino Acid Market**: The amino acid sector is stable, but rapid demand growth has led to expansions across product lines. Monitoring the performance of high-valuation companies like Meihua Biological is crucial for sustained profitability [1][16]. Emerging Trends - **AI Server Upgrades**: The upgrade of AI servers is driving demand in the materials industry, particularly benefiting companies like Dongtai Technology, which is expected to see significant revenue growth [1][17]. - **New Material Directions**: Attention is drawn to new materials such as ceramic substrates and water treatment technologies, with companies like Lens Technology and Nao Technology showing strong potential in their respective fields [1][18]. Conclusion The chemicals industry is currently facing significant challenges, but specific sub-sectors and companies present potential investment opportunities. Monitoring economic trends, capital expenditure, and sector-specific dynamics will be crucial for identifying future growth areas.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see stable nickel profits in Q2, with cobalt performance showing elasticity. The forecast for H1 2025 indicates a net profit of 2.6-2.8 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 56%-68% [7] - Nickel wet-process projects are expected to continue overproducing, with a projected shipment of over 70,000 tons in Q2, maintaining stable profits. The company anticipates nickel intermediate shipments of over 280,000 tons for the year, a 25% increase year-on-year [7] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise, potentially leading to a second wave of price increases in the second half of the year, with the company’s cobalt projects contributing significantly to profits [7] - Copper is expected to contribute stable profits, while lithium is projected to break even. The company aims for a total copper shipment of 90,000 tons for the year, contributing 700-800 million in profits [7] - The sales of positive materials are expected to recover significantly, with a target of 130,000 tons for the year, a 30% increase year-on-year [7] - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 6 billion, 6.75 billion, and 8.24 billion respectively, reflecting a growth of 44%, 12%, and 22% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 66.304 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.19%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.351 billion, down 14.25% year-on-year [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 3.53 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.58 [1] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 138.963 billion by 2025, with total liabilities of 84.779 billion [8]

Core Viewpoint - Rongbai Technology (688005) reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the fiscal year 2024, attributed to the downward trend in lithium battery material prices, but highlighted achievements in overseas market expansion and new product development [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 was 15.088 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.41% [1] - Net profit for 2024 was 296 million yuan, down 49% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 of this year, the company reported a net loss of 15.4295 million yuan, although the loss margin has narrowed [1] Market Expansion and Product Development - The company emphasized its overseas market expansion, with significant shipments from its Korean base and the initiation of the Poland project in Europe [1] - The company has secured orders for nickel-based products from major domestic clients and has locked in European production capacity [1] - Focus on new technologies such as solid-state batteries and sodium-ion batteries, with advancements in solid electrolyte development [1] Technological Advancements - The company is primarily developing sulfide electrolytes, which show superior performance and improved air stability [1] - The pilot production line is accelerating, with completion expected by the end of 2025, which will lower production costs [1] - Solid-state cathode materials have already been shipped in bulk, with collaborative development of lithium-rich manganese-based cathode materials showing leading performance [1] Orders and Production Capacity - The company received multiple orders at the beginning of 2025 and has commenced deliveries [1] - A new production line for sodium-ion cathode materials with an annual capacity of 6,000 tons is under construction, with expected rapid growth in shipment volume by 2025 [1] Competitive Strategy - In a highly competitive lithium battery industry, the company is building a three-in-one supply chain system to create supply chain barriers through collaboration with partners [1] - New product development and customer expansion are expected to enhance sales volume, operational rates, and reduce costs [1]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.2 times, positioned at the historical 74th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.2 times, at the historical 57th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 31.9 times, at the historical 13th percentile, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 136.8 times, at the historical 98th percentile, suggesting a high valuation [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][6] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery, and Medical Services [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the spot price of the photovoltaic industry chain continues to decline, while the futures price of polysilicon has increased by 5.8% [2] - The price of silicon wafers has decreased by 1.4%, and the price of battery cells has remained stable [2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of newly installed wind power from January to May 2025 has increased by 134.2% [2] Financial Sector - Insurance companies' premium income from January to May 2025 has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to the first three months [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar has remained stable, while the price of cement has decreased by 1.6% due to weak demand from real estate and traditional infrastructure projects [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs has increased by 3.5%, while the wholesale price of pork has decreased by 0.5% [3] - The wholesale price index of liquor has decreased by 0.11% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of foreign contracted engineering business from January to May 2025 has increased by 5.4% [3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil has decreased by 12.9%, closing at $67.31 per barrel [3] - The price of thermal coal has increased by 1.8%, closing at 620 yuan per ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unilateral and inter - period trends of lithium carbonate deviate from the short - term fundamentals, and attention should be paid to the position - holding risks. The market attributes the rebound of the absolute futures price to the change of the demand and production schedule expectation for July from negative to positive. After the strengthening of the unilateral futures price, the basis of trade and long - term contracts has strengthened significantly, while the inter - period spread has weakened significantly, which is inconsistent with the continuous large - scale cancellation of futures warehouse receipts. [3] - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to go short on rallies after the willingness of long - position holders to take delivery becomes clear, and the price of the 2507 contract is expected to range from 55,000 to 63,000 yuan per ton. [3][4] - For inter - period trading, it is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage (except for the 8 - 9 contract, which maintains the positive arbitrage idea) after the willingness of long - position holders to take delivery becomes clear at the end of June. [5] - For hedging, it is recommended to conduct short - hedging, and the short - hedging ratio is suggested to be increased to 70%. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Price Trends - The main contracts of lithium carbonate rebounded significantly. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan per ton, up 3,420 yuan per ton week - on - week; the 2509 contract closed at 63,300 yuan per ton, up 4,400 yuan per ton week - on - week; the spot price rose 750 yuan per ton to 61,150 yuan per ton. The SMM futures - spot basis (2507 contract) weakened by 2,670 yuan per ton to - 2,090 yuan per ton, and the Fubao trader's premium and discount quote was + 400 yuan per ton, up 400 yuan per ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 60 yuan per ton, down 980 yuan per ton month - on - month. [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - The production of lithium carbonate continued to increase, and the operating rate improved. The price of spodumene concentrate rose by 9 US dollars per ton to 629 US dollars per ton this week. The production of salt lakes increased, and there will be new projects in Qinghai put into production in July. This week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,767 tons, an increase of 305 tons from last week, with a growth rate of 1.65%. [2] 3.2.2 Demand - Driven by the better - than - expected performance of Xiaomi's large orders, the market expects the demand for power batteries to continue to be released. According to the statistics of consulting firms, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate battery cells in July increased by 6% month - on - month, and that of ternary battery cells increased by 4% month - on - month; the production schedule of cathode materials increased by 2% month - on - month. The market expects that the demand in the off - season of lithium batteries in July may be better than previously expected. [2] 3.2.3 Inventory - The total social inventory continued to increase. The inventory of lithium carbonate was 136,837 tons, an increase of 1,936 tons month - on - month. The number of futures warehouse receipts decreased to 21,998 tons. [2] 3.3 Market Data - The report provides a series of charts and tables showing the price trends, production, inventory, and other data of lithium carbonate and related products in the lithium industry chain, including the spot and futures price differences of lithium carbonate, the inter - period price differences of lithium carbonate futures, the price trends of lithium ore, lithium salt products, and lithium batteries, etc. [8][10][11][13][15][17]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Keheng Co., Ltd. (科恒股份), has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing Pure Lithium New Energy Technology, focusing on a comprehensive collaboration across the entire supply chain for solid-state lithium-ion battery production and related materials [1] Group 1 - The strategic cooperation will encompass the production equipment for all-solid-state lithium-ion batteries, cathode materials, and promotion in the energy storage market [1] - The partnership aims to establish a full-chain strategic relationship involving materials, equipment, research and development, and production lines [1]