Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the zinc market are mixed, with short - term support at the bottom. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of 0.13% and an amplitude of 1.43%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,425 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors grew rapidly in the first 10 months [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream, the import volume of zinc ore declined, and the loss of importing zinc concentrates in China widened. Domestic smelters started winter raw material reserves and preferred domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a significant drop in processing fees and a contraction in smelter profits. Overseas supply remained tight, and the export window was open. On the demand side, the downstream market was entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening, while the automotive sector had some bright spots. Downstream buyers purchased on demand at low prices [7]. - **Technical - level**: The position decreased while the price adjusted, and both long and short positions were cautious. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Fluctuation**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 22,425 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.13%) from November 21, 2025. As of November 27, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,022 US dollars/ton, up 18.5 US dollars/ton (0.62%) from November 21, 2025 [10]. - **Net Position of Top 20 in Shanghai Zinc**: As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 8,558 lots, an increase of 1,085 lots from November 21, 2025. The position volume of Shanghai zinc was 188,919 lots, a decrease of 6,325 lots (3.24%) from November 21, 2025 [14]. - **Price Spreads**: As of November 28, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton from November 21, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,335 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton from November 21, 2025 [18]. - **Spot Premiums**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton (0.53%) from November 21, 2025. The spot premium was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of November 27, 2025, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was 165.44 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30.69 US dollars/ton from November 20, 2025 [24]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, an increase of 4,725 tons (10.26%) from November 20, 2025. As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 95,916 tons, a decrease of 4,431 tons (4.42%) from the previous week. As of November 27, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 140,600 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons (11.9%) from November 20, 2025 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In September 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0666 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. In October 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 340,863.41 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.48% and a year - on - year increase of 3.28% [33][34]. - **Supply - End - Global Refined Zinc**: According to WBMS, the global refined zinc market was in short supply. In September 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 85,800 tons (7.73%); the consumption was 1.1749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,900 tons (1.2%); and there was a surplus of 20,300 tons, compared with a deficit of 51,600 tons in the same period last year [35][39]. - **Supply - End - Refined Zinc Production**: In October 2025, the zinc output in China was 665,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7%. From January to October, the cumulative zinc output was 6.184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [43]. - **Supply - End - Refined Zinc Export**: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,836.76 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%; the export volume was 8,518.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3824.82% [46]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to October 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 919,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.85%. In October 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 23,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.74%; the export volume was 328,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.57% [49][50]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to October 2025, the new housing construction area was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.87%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7.885278 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%, among which personal mortgage loans were 1.0834 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [55][56]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: From January to October 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [62]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In October 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. From January to October, the cumulative refrigerator output was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In October 2025, the air - conditioner output was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. From January to October, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3% [64]. - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,322,094 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.82%; the output was 3,358,716 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.09% [68].