瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 沪锌市场周报 逢低采买小幅去库 预计锌价震荡企稳 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锌主力震荡下跌，周线涨跌幅为-1.02%，振幅1.29%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价 22275元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国8月制造业PMI初值53.3，意外创三年多新高，通胀压力加剧。工信部等部 门：进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序，遏制低价无序竞争。基本面，国内外锌矿进口量上升，锌矿加 工费持续上升，叠加硫酸价格上涨明显，冶炼厂利润进一步修复，生产积极性增加；各地新增产能 陆续释放，叠加前期检修产能复产，供应增长有所加快。目前进口亏损继续扩大，进口锌流入量下 降。需求端，下游处于进入需求淡季，加工企业开工率同比有所下降。近期锌价下跌，下游逢低按 需采购为主，但整体成交有所改善，国内社库小幅下降，现货升水持稳；海外LME库存下降明显， LME现货升水下调，对国 ...

锌：国内库存持续累库 沪锌价格仍然承压 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号： F03129697 投资咨询证号： Z0020351 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 市场数据 第三章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 交易逻辑与策略 ◼ 产业供需： 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 矿端，本周国内锌精矿市场维持稳定，SMM Zn50国产周度TC均价环比持平于3900元/金属吨，SMM 进口锌精矿指数环比上涨8.05美元/干吨至90.3美元/ 干吨。本周防城港进口锌精矿到港，带动国内港口进口 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the zinc industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and remain bearish in the medium term. The supply is increasing while the demand is in the traditional off - season. Although the short - term inventory accumulation is moderate and the macro - environment provides some support, the long - term excess supply will lead to price pressure. It is advisable to hold short positions in the medium - long term and maintain long - short positions within the quarter [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Market Review**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last week was 22,885, with a weekly increase of 2.65%. The closing price of last night's session was 22,715, with a night - session decline of 0.74%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,829, with a weekly increase of 0.18% [7] - **Futures Trading and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 152,086, an increase of 1,020 compared to the previous week. The position was 129,228, an increase of 13,260. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,275, a decrease of 10,132 compared to the previous week, and the position was 190,675, an increase of 3,903 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,928 to 13,289; Shanghai Zinc total inventory increased by 4,789 to 59,419; social inventory increased by 4,800 to 98,300; LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 to 115,775; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 6,000 [7] - **Fundamental Data and Information**: Imported zinc ore processing fees remained at $55/ton; imported zinc ore smelting profit increased by 73 to - 1,765 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore processing fees remained at 3,800 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 154 to 462 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet price increased by 120 to 4,050 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased but remains low [10] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short term and at a historical medium level; smelting profit is stable and at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profit is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level; the refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level in the same period; among downstream industries, the galvanized operation rate has increased, while the die - cast zinc operation rate has decreased and is at a medium - low level in history [14][15] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: Spot premium has significantly declined, and overseas premium is relatively stable. The structure of LME CASH - 3M has changed significantly [18][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of Shanghai Zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually shifting to a backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: Inventory at a low level shows a stable upward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [33][38] - **Futures**: The domestic position is at a relatively high level in the same period in history [39] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [42][43] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [44] - **Import and Export**: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The monthly operation rate of downstream industries has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [56][59] - **Terminal**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural incremental growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - There are fluctuations in European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, which may have an impact on the zinc market [74][75][76]

Group 1 - The metal zinc concept declined by 1.46%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with major companies like Zijin Mining, Zhuhai Group, and Western Mining experiencing significant drops [1][2] - Among the companies in the zinc sector, Dazhong Mining, Smart Agriculture, and Zhejiang Fu Holdings saw increases of 10.05%, 3.19%, and 0.95% respectively [1][3] - The zinc concept sector experienced a net outflow of 1.371 billion yuan, with 28 stocks seeing net outflows, and 8 stocks with outflows exceeding 50 million yuan [2][3] Group 2 - The top net outflow stock was Zijin Mining, with a net outflow of 625.26 million yuan, followed by Hunan Gold and Xiyang Co., with net outflows of 154.87 million yuan and 87.99 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Dazhong Mining, Smart Agriculture, and Western Mining, with net inflows of 82.13 million yuan, 61.00 million yuan, and 35.24 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The overall performance of the zinc sector reflects a challenging market environment, with several companies facing significant capital outflows [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to continue to be released, but there may be disruptions. The demand side is likely to face pressure, and the traditional peak season may see a temporary improvement. The center of Shanghai Zinc is expected to decline both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The zinc fundamentals may remain weak, suppressing the upside space of zinc prices, but certain factors will limit the downside range [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In H1 2025, zinc prices mainly showed a step - by - step downward trend. The decline of Shanghai Zinc main contract exceeded 13%, and that of LME Zinc main contract exceeded 9%. In the second half of the year, questions remain about the operation of the mining and smelting cycle, the expected change in social inventory, and trading opportunities for zinc ingots [15]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Mine End: Temporary Mine Looseness Confirmed, Still Need to Be Vigilant Against Disturbances - In H1 2025, overseas mines produced relatively smoothly, while domestic mines slightly underperformed expectations. The annual overseas mine increment is slightly revised down from 430,000 to 380,000 tons, and the domestic zinc mine increment is revised down from 80,000 to 30,000 tons. In the second half of the year, the mine looseness cycle will continue, but the probability of overseas zinc mine disturbances may increase, and domestic zinc mines may consume raw materials but should not be in short supply [18][27][35][46]. 3.2.2 Smelting End: The Pattern of East - Rising and West - Falling May Intensify - From January to April 2025, global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year, while China's production increased slightly. Overseas smelters are restricted by the record - low Benchmark and have started to cut production, while domestic smelting capacity is gradually being released. In the second half of the year, overseas zinc smelters may continue to cut capacity actively, and the space for internal - external positive spreads may be larger than expected. The upward trend of zinc concentrate TC may have setbacks, and smelter profits may be under pressure [48][52][66]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Initial - Stage Demand: Obvious Sector Differentiation, Marginal Weakening of Restocking Momentum - In H1 2025, the overall initial - stage downstream start - up increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, the start - up was weak, and then improved with the recovery of terminal demand and the fermentation of the export - rush effect. After June, downstream orders gradually weakened. The restocking of downstream raw materials may be limited in the future [75][80]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure Demand in the Peak Season May Improve Year - on - Year, and the Construction Sector Will Continue to Drag - In H1 2025, infrastructure support was relatively stable. The issuance of new special bonds was basically in line with the plan, and the debt - replacement bonds were issued in advance. The actual operation of infrastructure projects showed that the investment growth rate increased year - on - year but decreased quarter - on - quarter. The construction sector may continue to drag down zinc demand [88][91][98]. 3.3.3 The Growth Rate of Durable Consumer Goods Demand Will Slow Down Both Year - on - Year and Quarter - on - Quarter in the Second Half of the Year - In H1 2025, the automobile and home appliance markets grew steadily under the influence of policies and the export - rush effect. In the second half of the year, the growth rate may slow down due to factors such as the weakening of domestic and external demand [101][109]. 3.3.4 Export Demand: Likely to Face Pressure - Overseas demand is expected to recover, but there may be regional differentiation. The export of initial - stage processed products increased significantly in H1 2025, but in the second half of the year, exports may face pressure due to factors such as anti - dumping and the end of the export - rush effect [117][120][122]. 3.4 Inventory Side - In H1 2025, LME inventory generally decreased, and domestic social inventory was at a historically low level. In the second half of the year, social inventory may gradually increase in the first half of Q3 but is limited by factors such as alloying, downstream restocking, and direct factory - to - customer delivery, and may remain at a relatively low level [132][136]. 3.5 Mining - Smelting Balance and Zinc Price Outlook - The mining - smelting cycle can be divided into two stages. Currently, stage one has not fully ended, and it is unlikely to pre - trade stage two. Zinc prices may be suppressed by weak fundamentals but limited in the downside range by certain factors. Shanghai Zinc may show short - term pulse - type declines during the long - term downward trend [139][140]. 3.6 Investment Suggestions - In the second half of the year, the supply is expected to be released, but there may be disruptions. The demand side is likely to face pressure. The reference range for Shanghai Zinc is [19,900, 23,000], and that for LME Zinc is [2,350, 2,750]. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies, and for the industrial side, selling hedging is appropriate. Pay attention to positive spreads in the long - term for monthly spreads and mid - term internal - external positive spreads when the structure is suitable [144][146].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "Weak" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is expected to face increasing supply and decreasing demand during the off - season, leading to a gradual manifestation of oversupply and downward pressure on prices. In the medium term, holding short positions is recommended. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and as the off - season deepens, the downward trend will be more pronounced. Positive spread positions within a quarter can be considered [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The last - week closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract was 21,845, with a weekly increase of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 21,935, with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The last - week closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,649, with a weekly increase of 0.86% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 104,696, a decrease of 86,341 from the previous week, and the open interest was 76,563, a decrease of 46,597. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 6,815, a decrease of 9,197, and the open interest was 207,970, an increase of 1,574 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 229 to 8,743; SHFE total zinc inventory decreased by 2,602 to 42,864; social inventory increased by 2,500 to 79,600; LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 to 126,225, and the注销仓单 ratio was 25.57%, a decrease of 18.30% [7] 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is relatively low. Zinc ore inventory at ports and smelters is relatively abundant [9][10] - **Profit**: Zinc ore mining companies' profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median level. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median level. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable but at a relatively low level compared to the same period [11][12] - **Production Capacity Utilization**: Zinc concentrate production capacity utilization has rebounded to a median level in the same period. Refined zinc monthly production capacity utilization is at a high level in the same period. Downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc production capacity utilization has decreased and is at a relatively low level in history [13][14] 3.3. Trading Perspective - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end is gradually moving out of the back structure [21] - **Inventory**: Inventory has shown a stable trend at a low level, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has declined from a high level [22] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the domestic market is at a relatively high level in the same period [31] 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period [34][35] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [36][39] 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. Downstream monthly production capacity utilization has slightly recovered and is mostly at a medium - low level in the same period. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [45][47] - **End - Users**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [58] 3.6. Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which have an impact on the profitability of European zinc smelters [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The significant reduction of Sino - US tariffs, cooling US inflation, and lower - than - expected retail growth increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut, causing the US dollar to decline, which was favorable for the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. However, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, reigniting macro - concerns. China's April financial data was mixed, with credit failing to continue improving and its structure weakening, indicating insufficient endogenous economic momentum [3][10]. - Since mid - April, zinc ingot imports have started, with many importers reducing orders. Recently, imported and bonded area supplies have flowed in for replenishment, and the inflow is expected to be more obvious in the second half of the month. In May, refineries had concentrated maintenance in the first half of the month, but many resumed production in the second half. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly supply of refined zinc was basically flat compared with the previous month, and the overall supply - side pressure remained unrelieved [4][10]. - In terms of demand, the performance of special towers remained good, while photovoltaic orders weakened. Enterprises' export orders were expected to improve but needed time. The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased slightly; the export orders of small hardware improved without obvious rush - to - export behavior, and combined with the resumption of some enterprises, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy increased; rubber and electronic - grade orders declined, while feed - grade orders improved. Export enterprises remained cautious, and the operating rate of zinc oxide increased slightly month - on - month [4][10]. - Overall, the optimistic sentiment about tariffs has been digested, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, causing the market sentiment to return to caution. With the launch of new domestic smelting projects, the supply continued to increase. Meanwhile, with the supplement of imported zinc and the end of the consumption peak season, the expectation of weak fundamentals due to increasing supply and weak demand remained unchanged. In the short term, the cooling of market risk appetite and insufficient fundamental support are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in zinc prices [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | May 9th | May 16th | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22190 | 22500 | 310 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2655.5 | 2726 | 70.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.36 | 8.25 | - 0.10 | | | SHFE Inventory | 47102 | 46351 | - 751 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 170325 | 165175 | - 5150 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 8.33 | 8.63 | 0.3 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | 500 | 250 | - 250 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract ZN2506 of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The larger - than - expected reduction of Sino - US tariffs alleviated concerns about the US economic recession and China's export pressure, and the market sentiment recovered, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. However, the zinc price was under pressure and adjusted after hitting the 40 - day moving average, finally closing at 22500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.4%. It was weak and volatile on Friday night. LME zinc continued to rebound in the first half of the week and fluctuated and consolidated in the second half, finally closing at 2686 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.15% [6]. - In the spot market, as of May 16th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22765 - 22910 yuan/ton, with a premium of 250 - 270 yuan/ton over 2506. SMC had a premium of 260 yuan/ton over 2506, and Kazakh zinc had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over 2506. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22775 - 22900 yuan/ton, with a premium of 265 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot. In Guangdong, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22640 - 22700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 305 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract and a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream 0 zinc ingots were traded at 22720 - 22940 yuan/ton, and the common 0 zinc was quoted at a premium of 200 - 300 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract, with Tianjin at par with Shanghai. Overall, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream purchasing sentiment weakened. Meanwhile, with the inflow of imported zinc ingots and improved supply, holders continued to lower the premium quotes to actively sell, but the actual spot transactions were relatively light [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 16th, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 165175 tons, a weekly decrease of 5150 tons. The SHFE inventory was 46351 tons, a decrease of 751 tons from the previous week. As of May 15th, the social inventory was 8.63 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons from Monday and an increase of 0.3 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in Guangdong decreased due to less arrival and downstream pick - up after low - price purchases in the early stage; the inventory in Tianjin increased as downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices; the inventory in Shanghai changed little; and the inventory in Zhejiang increased significantly due to the arrival of imported zinc ingots [8]. - In the macro aspect, US inflation cooled down. The April CPI was 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest level since February 2021. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest rate since the inflation outbreak in the spring of 2021. The US April PPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the largest decline in five years. The US April retail sales increased by 0.1% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations but significantly weaker than the previous value, indicating weak consumer spending. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed was considering adjusting the core content of the monetary policy guidance framework to cope with major changes in inflation and interest rate prospects after the 2020 pandemic. Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson said that tariffs and related uncertainties might lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation this year, but the monetary policy was ready to respond as needed. In terms of tariffs, the joint statement of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs; the US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China's new RMB loans in April were 280 billion yuan, the previous value was 3.64 trillion yuan, the expected value was 764.4 billion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was 730 billion yuan; the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, the previous value was 5.89 trillion yuan, the expected value was 1.26 trillion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was - 65.8 billion yuan; the stock social financing growth rate was 8.7%, the previous value was 8.4%; M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, the expected value was 7.5%, and the previous value was 7%; M1 increased by 1.5% year - on - year, the expected value was 3%, and the previous value was 1.6% [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3500 yuan/metal ton and 45 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat month - on - month for domestic and increasing by 5 US dollars/dry ton for foreign [11]. - Kyzyl - Tashtyg Mine, operated by Longxin Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group in the Tuva Republic of Russia, is facing financial difficulties due to the escalation of international sanctions and limited Sino - Russian financial cooperation and plans to suspend operations. Zijin Mining owns 70% of the mine, which produced approximately 71300 tons of zinc concentrate and approximately 4750 tons of lead concentrate in 2024 [11][12]. - New Century's zinc concentrate production in Q1 2025 was 30000 tons. It performed excellently in Q1 2025, reducing the impact of the rainy season through effective resilience measures, with a 50% increase compared to the weather - affected production in 2024. Zijin Mining's mineral zinc production in Q1 2025 was 88215 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a month - on - month decrease of 9% [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio, spot premium and discount, LME premium and discount, inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profit, refined zinc net import, and the operating rate of downstream primary enterprises [14][15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Weak". Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand, and trend weakly in the medium - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the resumption of mines and the gradual implementation of new and expanded production capacities, the subsequent processing fees still have a trend of rising steadily. Currently, smelter profits have significantly recovered, and the smelting revenue including by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid is close to 1000 yuan/ton. At the same time, smelter raw material and port ore inventories are at relatively high levels, and the smelting start - up rate has generally increased in the second quarter. However, in May, smelters in regions such as Yunnan are under maintenance and shut - down, and the output may decrease by more than 10,000 tons compared with April [7]. - Consumption is gradually transitioning to a slack stage, and the downstream replenishment space is limited. In terms of terminal consumption by sector, power towers are still relatively strong, while other sectors are relatively dull. After the previous sharp price decline, the downstream had a strong willingness to replenish raw materials, which to some extent reduced the subsequent demand space. It is expected that the apparent consumption peaked in April and will show a high - level contraction trend, putting pressure on the upper price limit [7]. - Fundamentally, it shows weak supply and demand. The supply - side production cuts and low social inventories support the near - end price. However, there is still an expectation of increased supply in the far - end, the inflection point of social inventories may come, and it will still operate weakly in the medium - and long - term, and the term spread also faces convergence pressure. For domestic and foreign zinc prices, the profit - loss ratio of domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage is appropriate, but attention should be paid to structural losses [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,260 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,655.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 140,017 lots, an increase of 24,655 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 119,170 lots, an increase of 13,174 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 last Friday was 6,713 lots, an increase of 1,517 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 213,170 lots, an increase of 4,608 lots [8]. - **Basis**: The LME zinc premium last Friday was - 26.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.96 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The SHFE zinc basis showed different changes in different regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc warrant inventory last week was 1,903 tons, a decrease of 451 tons compared with the previous week. The total SHFE zinc inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons. The bonded - area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. The social inventory was 83,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons [8]. 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has risen to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. The port inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang and smelter raw material inventory are at relatively high levels, while the seven - region inventory and smelter finished - product inventory are relatively low [10][11]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium - high level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level. Smelting profit has recovered and is at a historical medium level. The profit of galvanized pipe enterprises is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Start - up Rate**: The smelting start - up rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream start - up rate is at a historically low level. The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The refined zinc monthly start - up rate has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased and are at a historically low level [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has declined from a high level. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE Zinc shows a B structure, while the far - end is relatively flat [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory shows a downward trend, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has decreased in the short - term and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The global zinc visible inventory has decreased [25][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same historical period [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the processing fees of domestic and imported ores have rebounded. The ore arrival volume is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a historical high level in the same period [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting profit has marginally recovered, and smelting output has marginally recovered. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [41][44]. 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [49]. - **Downstream**: The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly recovered, and most are at a medium - low level in the same historical period. The downstream raw material inventory and finished - product inventory show different trends in different sectors [50][52]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - In Europe, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different countries also varies [63].