截止收盘，伦铜报13259美元跌90.5美元，跌幅0.68%，伦铝报3141.5美元跌33美元，跌幅1.04%；伦锌 报3366.5美元跌20.5美元，跌幅0.61%；伦铅报1979美元跌16.5美元，跌幅0.83%；伦锡报543855美元涨 470美元，涨幅0.87%；伦镍报17730美元跌315美元，跌幅1.75%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江有色网2月27日早讯：周四晚间LME金属期货普遍下跌，伦锡表现坚挺创下五连涨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

截止收盘，伦铜报12901美元跌99美元，跌幅0.76%，伦铝报3091美元跌14.5美元，跌幅0.47%；伦锌报 3345.5美元跌32.5美元，跌幅0.96%；伦铅报1952美元跌14.5美元，跌幅0.74%；伦锡报47370美元涨630 美元，涨幅1.35%；伦镍报17285美元跌150美元，跌幅0.86%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 长江有色网2月24日早讯：周一晚间LME金属期货普遍下跌；伦锡一枝独秀。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments and face downward pressure. This is due to factors such as the macro - economic situation where US January existing - home sales were lower than expected, the upstream zinc ore situation with high imports but year - end domestic production cuts, refinery profit contractions, and the downstream market turning to the off - season with weakening demand in some sectors and only partial bright spots in others [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: This week, the main Shanghai zinc contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 1.04% and an amplitude of 2.41%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 24,195 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, US January existing - home sales were 3.91 million, lower than the expected 4.15 million and the previous value of 4.35 million. Fundamentally, upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc ore production decreases at the end of the year. Refinery profits are shrinking, and production is expected to be limited. The export window may close again. Demand - side is turning to the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening. However, there are some policy - supported bright spots in the automotive field. Downstream procurement is mainly on - demand, and domestic social inventories have slightly increased [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Open interest is stable while prices are adjusting, and trading between long and short positions has weakened [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 24,195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton or 1.04% from February 6, 2026. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,381.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 83 US dollars/ton or 2.52% from February 6, 2026 [7]. - **Net Position of Top 20**: As of February 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 9,275 lots, an increase of 2,040 lots from February 6, 2026. The open interest of Shanghai zinc was 178,440 lots, a decrease of 12,112 lots or 6.36% from February 6, 2026 [10]. - **Price Spreads**: As of February 13, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from February 6, 2026. The lead - zinc futures spread was 7,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 445 yuan/ton from February 6, 2026 [16][17]. - **Spot Premium**: As of February 13, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton or 0.77% from February 6, 2026. The spot discount was 25 yuan/ton, the same as last week. As of February 12, 2026, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 28.69 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.94 US dollars/ton from February 5, 2026 [22]. - **Inventory**: As of February 12, 2026, LME refined zinc inventory was 103,500 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons or 3.99% from February 5, 2026. As of February 13, 2026, SHFE refined zinc inventory was 87,025 tons, an increase of 16,336 tons or 23.11% from last week. As of February 12, 2026, domestic refined zinc social inventory was 138,000 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons or 16.46% from February 5, 2026 [25]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In November 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0627 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.11% and a year - on - year increase of 2.39%. In December 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 462,599.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.44% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [31]. - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: In November 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1612 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 56,300 tons or 5.1%. Consumption was 1.1689 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,500 tons or 0.47%. The global refined zinc deficit was 7,700 tons, compared with a deficit of 58,500 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance in November 2025 was 29,000 tons [36][37]. - **Supply - Refined Zinc Production**: In December 2025, zinc production was 675,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 7.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [40]. - **Supply - Refined Zinc Import and Export**: In December 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 8,760.85 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%. The export volume was 27,266.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 524.21% [43]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheet**: From January to December 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 1.0667 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.1%. In December 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 31,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.22%. The export volume was 404,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.95% [46][47]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to December 2025, the new housing construction area was 587.6996 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47%. The housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 9.311716 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.4%. Personal mortgage loans were 1.285196 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [52][53]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2025, infrastructure investment decreased by 1.48% year - on - year [58][59]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In December 2025, refrigerator production was 10.0115 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative refrigerator production was 109.2436 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In December 2025, air - conditioner production was 21.6289 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 266.9749 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% [61]. - **Downstream - Automobile**: In January 2026, China's automobile sales volume was 2.346 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. The automobile production volume was 2.45 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.02% [65].

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a widespread decline, with nickel and tin leading the drop, and copper reaching a one-week low [1] Group 1: Price Movements - London copper closed at $12,855.5, down $383.5, a decrease of 2.90% [1] - London aluminum closed at $3,097.5, down $19.5, a decrease of 0.63% [1] - London zinc closed at $3,381.5, down $36.5, a decrease of 1.07% [1] - London lead closed at $1,984, down $10.5, a decrease of 0.53% [1] - London tin closed at $47,800, down $2,265, a decrease of 4.52% [1] - London nickel closed at $17,250, down $815, a decrease of 4.51% [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a broad increase, with nickel leading the gains, reaching a nearly two-week high, and lead rising for four consecutive days [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the close, copper was reported at $13,239, up $139, a rise of 1.06% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,117, increasing by $12, reflecting a 0.39% gain [1] - Zinc was reported at $3,418, up $20, marking a 0.59% increase [1] - Lead reached $1,994.5, gaining $17, which is an increase of 0.86% [1] - Tin was reported at $50,065, up $835, showing a rise of 1.70% [1] - Nickel closed at $18,065, increasing by $515, a rise of 2.93% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LME metal futures showed mixed performance, with nickel experiencing a three-day rise while other metals fluctuated in price [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the close, copper was reported at $13,100, down $85, a decrease of 0.64% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,105, down $25, a decline of 0.80% [1] - Zinc increased to $3,398, up $16, an increase of 0.47% [1] - Lead rose to $1,977.5, up $3, a rise of 0.15% [1] - Tin was reported at $49,230, down $585, a decrease of 1.17% [1] - Nickel closed at $17,550, up $140, an increase of 0.80% [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a general increase, with tin leading the gains on the evening of February 10, as reported by Changjiang Nonferrous Network [1] Group 1: Price Movements - London copper closed at $13,185, up $125, a rise of 0.96% [1] - London aluminum closed at $3,130, up $20, a rise of 0.64% [1] - London zinc closed at $3,382, down $1, a decrease of 0.03% [1] - London lead closed at $1,974.5, up $9, a rise of 0.46% [1] - London tin closed at $49,815, up $2,660, a rise of 5.64% [1] - London nickel closed at $17,410, up $175, a rise of 1.02% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The LME metal futures experienced a general decline, with notable drops in most metals except for lead, which showed a slight increase [1] Group 1: Price Movements - LME copper closed at $13,040, down $370, a decrease of 2.76% [1] - LME aluminum closed at $3,059, down $40, a decrease of 1.29% [1] - LME zinc closed at $3,305.5, down $17.5, a decrease of 0.53% [1] - LME lead closed at $1,967, up $5.5, an increase of 0.28% [1] - LME tin closed at $48,360, down $1,935, a decrease of 3.85% [1] - LME nickel closed at $17,330, down $65, a decrease of 0.37% [1]

Metal Market Summary - Domestic base metals experienced a general decline, with only copper rising by 2.6%. Tin led the decline with a drop of 6.7%, while nickel fell by 1.25%. Other metals saw declines of less than 1% [1] - In the aluminum sector, alumina rose by 0.75%, while casting aluminum fell by 1.22%. Lithium carbonate increased by 4.63%, and polysilicon rose by 6.61%. Industrial silicon decreased by 0.62% [1][4] - The black metal sector saw collective declines, with stainless steel and iron ore both dropping over 1%, specifically stainless steel down by 1.77% and iron ore down by 1.14% [1] - Internationally, base metals showed collective gains, with London copper and tin both rising over 4%, specifically copper up by 4.1% and tin by 4.53%. Nickel increased by 3.29%, while aluminum and zinc rose over 1% [1] - Precious metals saw significant increases, with COMEX gold rising by 5.3% and silver by 10.06%. In contrast, domestic silver fell by 16.71%, while domestic gold rose by 0.63% [1][2] Macroeconomic Overview - The Shanghai government set a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year, with public budget revenue expected to grow by 2%. The report emphasizes the importance of modernizing the industrial system and supporting key sectors such as integrated circuits and biomedicine [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [5] - The US dollar index fell by 0.17% to 97.44, with discussions around interest rate policies indicating a low probability of rate cuts in the near term [6]