Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 13, 2026 [2] - **Data Source**: Wind Financial Terminal, Steel Union Data Terminal [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the document. 2. Core View The document mainly presents the basis rate statistics of various futures on February 13, 2026, including the basis rate changes, spot prices, and futures contract prices of multiple commodities such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, steel, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.62%, the spot price is 102,040, and the settlement price of the main contract is 102,680. The basis decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous day [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract basis rate is - 1.10%, the spot price is 23,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 23,610 [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.45%, the spot price is 24,480, and the settlement price of the main contract is 24,590 [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract basis rate is - 0.99%, the spot price is 16,575, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,740 [3]. - Tin (SN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.37%, the spot price is 391,650, and the settlement price of the main contract is 393,120 [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract basis rate is 3.58%, the spot price is 140,780, and the settlement price of the main contract is 140,320 [3]. - Industrial Silicon (SI): The main contract basis rate is 11.31%, the spot price is 9,300, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,290 [3]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.28%, the spot price is 1,126.12, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,129.74 [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract basis rate is - 4.63%, the spot price is 19,670, and the settlement price of the main contract is 20,626 [3]. Steel - Rebar (RB): The main contract basis rate is 5.25%, the spot price is 3,050, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,096 [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): The main contract basis rate is 0.37%, the spot price is 3,218, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,237 [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract basis rate is 5.94%, the spot price is 807.3, and the settlement price of the main contract is 762.0 [3]. - Coke (J): The main contract basis rate is - 3.5%, the spot price is 1,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,664.0 [3]. - Coking Coal: The main contract basis rate is 9.60%, the spot price is 1,227.5, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,120.0 [3]. - Power Coal (ZC): The main contract basis rate is 0.50%, the spot price is 711.0, and the settlement price of the main contract is 801.4 [3]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): The main contract basis rate is - 4.00%, the spot price is 5,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,500 [3]. - Silicomanganese (SM): The main contract basis rate is 2.07%, the spot price is 5,800, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,842 [3]. - Stainless Steel (SS): The main contract basis rate is 1.29%, the spot price is 14,150, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,975 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 143,450, and the settlement price of the main contract is 147,340 [3]. - Methanol (MA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.38%, the spot price is 2,223, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,231 [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract basis rate is - 0.14%, the spot price is 3,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,830 [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.48%, the spot price is 5,195, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,220 [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The main contract basis rate is 3.04%, the spot price is 6,850, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,648 [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract basis rate is 2.04%, the spot price is 7,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,415 [3]. - Short - Fiber (PF): The main contract basis rate is - 0.03%, the spot price is 6,620, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,616 [3]. - Plastic: The main contract basis rate is 0.24%, the spot price is 6,750, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,734 [3]. - PVC (V): The main contract basis rate is - 3.40%, the spot price is 4,770, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,938 [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 16,400, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,450 [3]. - 20 - Standard Rubber (NR): The main contract basis rate is - 0.09%, the spot price is 13,736, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,405 [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract basis rate is - 4.30%, the spot price is 1,112, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,162 [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract basis rate is - 1.79%, the spot price is 1,810, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,843 [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract basis rate is 2.14%, the spot price is 5,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,238 [3]. - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract basis rate is - 4.70%, the spot price is 454.4, and the settlement price of the main contract is 478.1 [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract basis rate is 8.99%, the spot price is 3,148, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,888 [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 3,210, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,348 [3]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract basis rate is 0.89%, the spot price is 3,379, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,355 [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract basis rate is 11.17%, the spot price is 4,748, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,447 [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: The main contract basis rate is - 11.2%, the spot price is 4,100, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,613 [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract basis rate is 9.68%, the spot price is 3,060, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,790 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The main contract basis rate is 8.55%, the spot price is 2,263, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,303 [3]. - Soybean Oil (Y): The main contract basis rate is 5.91%, the spot price is 8,560, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,082 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil (OI): The main contract basis rate is 9.65%, the spot price is 9,920, and the settlement price of the main contract is 9,047 [3]. - Peanut (PK): The main contract basis rate is 15.78%, the spot price is 9,200, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,938 [3]. - Palm Oil (P): The main contract basis rate is 1.34%, the spot price is 8,900, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,782 [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract basis rate is 0.86%, the spot price is 2,340, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,320 [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract basis rate is 1.48%, the spot price is 2,610, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,642 [3]. - Apple (AP): The main contract basis rate is - 1.22%, the spot price is 8,209, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,300 [3]. - Egg (JD): The main contract basis rate is 14.85%, the spot price is 3,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,444 [3]. - Live Pig (LH): The main contract basis rate is 7.02%, the spot price is 12,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 11,540 [3]. - Cotton (CF): The main contract basis rate is 8.65%, the spot price is 14,790, and the settlement price of the main contract is 14,855 [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract basis rate is 2.21%, the spot price is 5,370, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,254 [3]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract basis rate is 0.06%, the spot price is 4,719.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,719.4 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract basis rate is - 0.11%, the spot price is 3,079.7, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,082.8 [3]. - CSI 500 (IC): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 8,423.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,448.2 [3].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term Shanghai zinc may fluctuate weakly. The short - term market sentiment weakens, and the downstream gradually shuts down before the Spring Festival, so the demand is difficult to improve substantially. The domestic supply remains low, but the export window closes, and the domestic supply - demand margin weakens, so Shanghai zinc lacks upward momentum. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to wait for the signal of the peak - season demand recovery after the Spring Festival. Later, attention should be paid to the export and the start - up situation of the domestic smelting end [1][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In December 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports were 462,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative imports were 5.324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.59%. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee in January was 1200 - 1600 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 600 yuan; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 49.92 US dollars per dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.12 US dollars. Last week, the domestic spot processing fee of zinc concentrate remained at 1300 - 1700 yuan per ton, and the weekly ring was flat; the spot processing fee of imported zinc concentrate was 33.25 US dollars per dry ton, a weekly decrease of 4.25 US dollars [2] Fundamental Changes - Supply - In December, the refined zinc output was 552,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. The annual refined zinc output was 6.8336 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.37%. Some domestic mines stopped production in winter, the output of domestic zinc concentrate decreased month - on - month, and the supplement of imported ore was limited. The profit of smelting enterprises without by - products was deeply in deficit, and some enterprises cut production passively. In January, many smelters in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and other regions started regular maintenance plans, involving a capacity of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons. The overall maintenance scale was larger than the resumption scale, and the start - up rate decreased. In December, the refined zinc import volume was 8700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%; the export volume was 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The domestic Shanghai - London ratio improved slightly, the refined zinc export profit window closed, and the import loss narrowed [3] Fundamental Changes - Consumption - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of new construction and construction areas in the real estate industry were still negative, and the year - on - year growth rates of infrastructure investment and automobile production and sales decreased. Last week, the start - up rate of the galvanizing industry was about 54.39%, a month - on - month increase of 1.41 percentage points, but significantly lower than the high point in December 2025. The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy dropped to 49.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 percentage points, at a six - month low; the start - up rate of zinc oxide was 57.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 percentage points. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the approaching Spring Festival in the northern region, some enterprises had early holidays, and the start - up rate dropped to 40 - 50%. The southern region was relatively stable, but the overall orders were insufficient. Affected by the relatively high zinc price and weak downstream demand, the procurement willingness of enterprises was low, and the pressure of finished product inventory increased [4] Fundamental Changes - Spot and Inventory - As of the week of January 21, the average price of 0 zinc ingots in the Yangtze River spot market was 24,200 yuan per ton. The spot price gradually declined this week, and the basis discount of 0 zinc in the Yangtze River spot to the main contract widened to - 150 yuan. The LME zinc spot maintained a discount of - 40.12 US dollars. As of the week of January 21, the LME inventory was 111,800 tons. The LME inventory continued to rise, and the current inventory had climbed to the average level in recent years. In China, the decline of zinc inventory stopped. As of January 19, the domestic social inventory was 112,100 tons, a month - on - month increase, above the average level in recent years. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 76,311 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2459 tons [6]

Group 1 - On January 5, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots in Shanghai was quoted at 23,970.00 CNY/ton, which is a premium of 150.0 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 23,820.00 CNY/ton [1] - The national zinc price overview on January 5 shows various market prices for 0 zinc ingots, with Shanghai prices ranging from 24,020 CNY/ton to 24,070 CNY/ton, while prices in Guangdong were at 23,720 CNY/ton [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a closing price of 23,820.00 CNY/ton for the main zinc futures contract on January 5, with a daily increase of 2.25% and a trading volume of 141,147 contracts [2] Group 2 - As of January 5, the zinc futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange totaled 41,374 tons, a decrease of 1,045 tons from the previous trading day [3] - Domestic zinc smelters are continuing to reduce production, with January zinc ingot output expected to remain stable month-on-month despite a seasonal consumption slowdown [3] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates that policy expectations should align with market expectations, avoiding a situation where the market and policy are in conflict [4] Group 3 - The upstream zinc ore import volume is declining due to unfavorable internal and external price comparisons, leading to increased losses in importing zinc concentrate [4] - Domestic smelters are starting winter raw material reserves and are more inclined to purchase domestic zinc concentrate, although competition for domestic ore is intensifying [4] - The downstream market is shifting towards a seasonal slowdown, with the real estate sector dragging down demand, while some support is seen in the automotive sector [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the Shanghai zinc futures will undergo a bullish adjustment, suggesting attention to the support level at 23000 yuan/ton, with potential upside targets between 23600 - 24000 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of 0.45% and an amplitude of 2.03%. The closing price of the main contract was 23275 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, most Fed officials expect further rate cuts after December, and 62.5 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement have been pre - allocated. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have declined, domestic smelters' winter raw material reserves have started, and processing fees have dropped, squeezing smelter profits and potentially reducing production. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, but there are some bright spots in the automotive sector. Domestic inventories continue to decline while LME inventory accumulation is slowing [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of December 31, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc futures was 23275 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (0.19%) from December 24. As of December 30, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3130 US dollars/ton, up 57.5 US dollars/ton (1.87%) from December 22 [9] - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of December 31, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc futures was 5416 lots, a decrease of 3131 lots from December 24. The open interest was 195442 lots, a decrease of 6438 lots (3.19%) from December 24 [11] - **Price Spreads**: As of December 31, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 550 yuan/ton from December 24. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton from December 24 [16] - **Spot Premiums**: As of December 31, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 23360 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.3%) from December 24. The spot premium was 115 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 30, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was - 32.22 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.61 US dollars/ton from December 19 [22] - **Inventory Changes**: As of December 30, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 106325 tons, an increase of 6425 tons (6.43%) from December 19. As of December 31, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 69793 tons, a decrease of 3170 tons (4.34%) from last week. As of December 29, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 105500 tons, a decrease of 13700 tons (11.49%) from December 22 [25] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In October 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import of zinc ore concentrates was 519018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [31] - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: In October 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.2187 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 108400 tons (9.76%); the consumption was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44200 tons (3.76%); the supply gap was 600 tons, compared with a gap of 64800 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed a supply - demand balance of - 35700 tons in September 2024 [36][37] - **Supply - Refined Zinc Output**: In November 2025, the domestic zinc output was 654000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to November, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [40] - **Supply - Refined Zinc Exports**: In November 2025, the import of refined zinc was 18229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%; the export was 42815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [43] - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets of major domestic enterprises was 942600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. In November 2025, the import of galvanized sheets was 36700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%; the export was 317900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [46][47] - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds available to real estate development enterprises were 851.4519 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%, among which personal mortgage loans were 117.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [52][53] - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year. In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year [58][59] - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to November, the cumulative refrigerator output was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The air - conditioner output in November was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [61] - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In November 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3428998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the output was 3531579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances, and the Fed's actions support the price. SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, but high prices suppress demand, leading to inventory accumulation and weak downstream performance. The upward drive lies in further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations, while the downward drive is from weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, with the main focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina: The market has a supply - demand imbalance with stable supply growth and peaking demand, causing a negative feedback loop. Supply increases, leading to inventory accumulation and price decline. The price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with a reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to environmental policies and enterprise production cuts [3]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - level overseas easing expectations and domestic positive policies support the price, but the supply increases, demand enters the off - season, and inventory accumulates. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a state of oscillating and strengthening. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up costs, while high aluminum prices suppress downstream demand. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to scrap - aluminum supply, environmental policies, and downstream orders [5]. Zinc - TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and terminal demand is weak, so zinc prices are oscillating weakly. Domestic zinc - ore production decreases in November, and the import window opens. Smelters cut production due to profit pressure, and refined - zinc production growth is limited. Downstream demand is generally weak at the end of the year, and social inventory is decreasing. The LME inventory increases, and the squeeze - out risk eases. The main support is at 22,850 - 22,950 [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, with increased imports in November and exports from Indonesia. The demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more restricted. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and attention should be paid to macro - factors and supply - side recovery [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of short - term oscillation and repair. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel - ore supply due to news from Indonesia. The domestic spot price falls, and the supply of refined nickel is tight. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support. However, the short - term reality is weak, and the medium - term fundamentals are loose, restricting the upward price space. The main reference range is 123,000 - 130,000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is oscillating narrowly. The spot - market trading atmosphere is weak. The macro - environment is favorable, but the market has a strong expectation of tightened ore supply. The price of nickel - iron has stronger bottom support, and the supply pressure eases slightly. However, the demand is in the off - season, and high inventory remains a problem. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a main reference range of 12,500 - [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market is in a state of wide - range oscillation. The recent news is abundant, and the fundamentals are in a state of strong supply and demand. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand has some resilience, but the power - market orders decline in the off - season. The inventory decreases, and the tight - balance fundamentals support the price, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon market has stable spot prices and oscillating futures prices. The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The demand from polysilicon is expected to decline significantly. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with a main range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production - cut intensity [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has stable spot prices and a significant increase in futures prices. The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises try to boost prices, but downstream profits are under pressure. The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate, and attention should be paid to production cuts and price acceptance [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper is at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread is 3,944 yuan/ton, up 11.29% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic - copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; imports were 27.11 million tons, down 3.90% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum is at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The alumina prices in different regions are all down slightly [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic - aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 2.82% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions have different changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of recycled - aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; that of primary - aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 5.84% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot is at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The import loss is - 2,669 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined - zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; imports were 1.82 million tons, down 3.22% [9]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin is at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 1.07%. The import loss is - 14,018.67 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin - ore imports were 11,632, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined - tin production was 16,090, up 53.09% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2.15%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron price is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's refined - nickel production was 33,342, down 9.38% month - on - month; imports were 9,741, down 65.66% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) is at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig - iron is 900 yuan/nickel point, up 0.67% [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production was 178.70 million tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3.35%. The lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price is 1,440 US dollars/ton, up 0.42% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium - carbonate production was 95,350, up 3.35% month - on - month; demand was 133,451, up 5.11% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon is at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 2601 - 2602 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, national industrial - silicon production was 40.17 million tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; the national operating rate was 64.82%, down 4.84% [18]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type re - feedstock average price is 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main - contract price is 60,760 yuan/ton, up 4.22% [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 14.48% month - on - month; imports were 0.11 million tons, down 27.05% [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The high copper price is driven by supply - inventory imbalance and macro factors. Despite concerns about tight supply at the mine end, high prices suppress terminal demand. The price is expected to have limited downside but may experience short - term volatility [1]. Zinc - As domestic zinc mines enter the production - reduction season, the supply of zinc ingots may tighten. Refined zinc exports boost the domestic price, and the short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price [5]. Nickel - After the Fed's interest rate cut, the macro - driven force is limited. The fundamental pressure leads to a weakening of the nickel price, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a game of weak supply and demand. Although the macro - expectation improves slightly and there is cost support, the off - season demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate and adjust [9]. Tin - The tin market has strong fundamentals and positive market sentiment. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a strong trend this year [11]. Aluminum - The alumina market has a structural surplus, and the price is under pressure. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to remain in a high - level shock pattern [12]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has high costs and weakening demand. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [13]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to remain weakly balanced. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the possibility of rising or falling depending on production changes [15]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market has weak demand and oversupply. The price may be strong under the influence of production - reduction news, and the futures price may remain high - level volatile [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market maintains a situation of strong supply and demand. The price may fluctuate due to news interference, and the short - term trend is expected to be strongly volatile [17]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.00% to 93222 yuan/ton, and the premium changed from 5 to - 20 yuan/ton. The price of other copper products also showed different degrees of increase [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread decreasing by 30 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In November, the electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05% to 110.31 million tons, and the import volume in October decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 2.55% to 23700 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 320.15 yuan/ton to - 4588 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread increasing by 5 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In November, the refined zinc production decreased by 3.56% to 59.52 million tons, and the import volume in October decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons [5]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.55% to 118200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 1 to - 186 dollars/ton [6]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 40 to - 150 yuan/ton [6]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% to 33345 tons, and the import volume decreased by 65.66% to 9741 tons [6]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel remained unchanged at 12800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 13.83% to 405 yuan/ton [9]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 5 to - 120 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 3.09% to 329900 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 200% to - 50 yuan/ton [11]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 spread increasing by 1610 to - 280 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In October, the tin ore import increased by 33.49% to 11632 tons, and the SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16090 tons [11]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.73% to 22050 yuan/ton, and the alumina price in different regions decreased [12]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the AL 2512 - 2601 spread remaining unchanged at - 35 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In November, the alumina production decreased by 4.44% to 743.94 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% to 363.66 million tons [12]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.69% to 21750 yuan/ton, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum changed [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread increasing by 15 to - 40 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In November, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.74% to 68.20 million tons, and the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons [13]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of East - China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased [15]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 30 to - 50 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% to 40.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [15]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52300 yuan/kg, and the basis decreased by 41.13% to - 4890 yuan [16]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the main contract price increasing by 2.56% to 57190 yuan [16]. Fundamental Data - The polysilicon production decreased by 14.48% to 11.46 million tons, and the import volume increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 1.07% to 94500 yuan/ton, and the lithium - spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 0.83% to 1220 dollars/ton [17]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spreads of different contracts changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 spread decreasing by 200 to - 380 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In November, the lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35% to 95350 tons, and the demand increased by 5.11% to 133451 tons [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the zinc market are mixed, with short - term support at the bottom. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of 0.13% and an amplitude of 1.43%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,425 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while the manufacturing and power sectors grew rapidly in the first 10 months [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Upstream, the import volume of zinc ore declined, and the loss of importing zinc concentrates in China widened. Domestic smelters started winter raw material reserves and preferred domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a significant drop in processing fees and a contraction in smelter profits. Overseas supply remained tight, and the export window was open. On the demand side, the downstream market was entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening, while the automotive sector had some bright spots. Downstream buyers purchased on demand at low prices [7]. - **Technical - level**: The position decreased while the price adjusted, and both long and short positions were cautious. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Fluctuation**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 22,425 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.13%) from November 21, 2025. As of November 27, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,022 US dollars/ton, up 18.5 US dollars/ton (0.62%) from November 21, 2025 [10]. - **Net Position of Top 20 in Shanghai Zinc**: As of November 28, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 8,558 lots, an increase of 1,085 lots from November 21, 2025. The position volume of Shanghai zinc was 188,919 lots, a decrease of 6,325 lots (3.24%) from November 21, 2025 [14]. - **Price Spreads**: As of November 28, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton from November 21, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,335 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton from November 21, 2025 [18]. - **Spot Premiums**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton (0.53%) from November 21, 2025. The spot premium was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of November 27, 2025, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was 165.44 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30.69 US dollars/ton from November 20, 2025 [24]. - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, an increase of 4,725 tons (10.26%) from November 20, 2025. As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 95,916 tons, a decrease of 4,431 tons (4.42%) from the previous week. As of November 27, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 140,600 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons (11.9%) from November 20, 2025 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In September 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0666 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. In October 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 340,863.41 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.48% and a year - on - year increase of 3.28% [33][34]. - **Supply - End - Global Refined Zinc**: According to WBMS, the global refined zinc market was in short supply. In September 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1952 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 85,800 tons (7.73%); the consumption was 1.1749 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,900 tons (1.2%); and there was a surplus of 20,300 tons, compared with a deficit of 51,600 tons in the same period last year [35][39]. - **Supply - End - Refined Zinc Production**: In October 2025, the zinc output in China was 665,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7%. From January to October, the cumulative zinc output was 6.184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [43]. - **Supply - End - Refined Zinc Export**: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,836.76 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%; the export volume was 8,518.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3824.82% [46]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: From January to October 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 919,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.85%. In October 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 23,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.74%; the export volume was 328,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.57% [49][50]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to October 2025, the new housing construction area was 490.6139 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.87%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7.885278 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%, among which personal mortgage loans were 1.0834 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [55][56]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure**: From January to October 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [62]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In October 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. From January to October, the cumulative refrigerator output was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In October 2025, the air - conditioner output was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. From January to October, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3% [64]. - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,322,094 units, a year - on - year increase of 8.82%; the output was 3,358,716 units, a year - on - year increase of 12.09% [68].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market is watching the Sino-US summit. The copper price was strong yesterday. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, the rapid increase in price suppresses demand. The market should focus on the marginal changes in demand and Sino-US tariffs, with the main contract supported around 87,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The alumina price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price has continued to be strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance, and the aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and oscillated at a high level. The cost support is strong, and the supply-demand relationship is in a tight balance. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro environment is warm. The zinc price oscillated strongly yesterday. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is stable. The LME has the risk of a short squeeze, and the export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price is supported in the short term but may continue to oscillate [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low-buying strategy on dips is recommended. The market should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated yesterday. The macro sentiment has improved, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, the inventory accumulation exerts some pressure. The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price oscillated and rose slightly yesterday. The macro environment is positive, but the nickel-iron and ferrochrome prices are under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was strong yesterday. The production has increased, and the demand is optimistic. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the market watching whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 334,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The average price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1,774 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -40 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.17%. The export volume was 2,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 15.13% month-on-month. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.26%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.00% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 manufacturers) was 1.8217 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 120,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.70% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. The SMM industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - The central bank's interest rate cut and the upcoming Sino - US meeting are factors affecting the market. The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price bottom, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream buyers is rising. Although short - term price increases may suppress demand, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is stabilizing at a low level, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The aluminum price is strong, with a tight - balance fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is rigidly supported, and the supply - demand is in a tight - balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints [5]. Zinc - The macro - environment is warm, and the supply of zinc is gradually increasing, but the increase may be limited. The demand is stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts, the short - term tin price may fall, but it may rise if the supply from Myanmar does not recover well [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is improving, and the cost is supported by the firm ore price. However, the inventory accumulation restricts the price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving, with increasing demand and tight raw material supply. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is pressure at the 83,000 level [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.16% to 87,905 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 21,170 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined price difference in Foshan decreased [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,290 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.32% to 285,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 160 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.20% to 121,900 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 226 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% to 41.85 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.83% to 79,150 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 320 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and the demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there is still room for further monetary policy easing, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting in Busan, South Korea may bring changes to tariffs. - The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the bottom center of prices. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. It is expected that the domestic refined copper output in October may decline month - on - month. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released after the price drops. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. However, the supply pressure is still significant, and the demand is weak. The full - caliber inventory has increased by 64,000 tons this week. The cost support of bauxite is gradually weakening, and the profit margin of the industry has shrunk. It is expected that the alumina price will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. - The aluminum price has continued to be strong, and the spot market discount has gradually widened, indicating that high prices are suppressing actual purchases. The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20800 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the high - level oscillation of the aluminum price. The cost support is prominent, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up the procurement cost. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern. The inventory is in a slow de - stocking process. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. The demand is stable without exceeding expectations. The LME has a risk of a short squeeze, and the export window of zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price may be supported in the short term but will likely maintain an oscillation without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is at a low level. The demand is still weak, and although AI computing power and the photovoltaic industry have driven some tin consumption, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Powell's hawkish statement on the December interest - rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it may continue to be strong [11]. Nickel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the ore price is firm. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The downstream ternary still has inventory - building demand, but the medium - term supply may increase. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The chromium - iron market is weak and stable. The supply pressure of stainless steel is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures price has been relatively strong, with the main price center moving up. The production has been increasing, and the downstream demand is optimistic. The raw - material inventory is being depleted quickly, and the supply of concentrate is tight. It is expected that the short - term market will remain strong, and attention should be paid to whether the price can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 290 yuan/ton to 87,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.33%. - The SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 87,660 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 324.15 yuan/ton to 4299 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.15% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons or 4.31% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons or 26.50% compared with the previous month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. - The import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton to 2914 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons or 1.74% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 118,000 tons or 3.16% compared with the previous month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons or 7.48% compared with the previous month. - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons or 4.43% compared with the previous month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. - The import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton to 5088 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons or 4.17% compared with the previous month. - The refined zinc import volume was 227,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 11.61% compared with the previous month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60 dollars/ton to 40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a decrease of 1553 tons or 15.13% compared with the previous month. - The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 4880 tons or 31.71% compared with the previous month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 1.26% compared with the previous month. - The refined nickel import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 526 tons or 3.00% compared with the previous month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, an increase of 6900 tons or 0.38% compared with the previous month. - The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons or 0.36% compared with the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. - The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2020 tons or 2.37% compared with the previous month. - The lithium carbonate demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12,778 tons or 12.28% compared with the previous month [16].