Workflow
锌期货投资分析
icon
Search documents
大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260325
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 02:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with long positions decreasing more significantly. Overall, it was a volatile market with reduced trading volume. The price was volatile, and long - position holders actively exited, while short - position holders also exited to wait and see. In the short term, the market is expected to consolidate. Technically, the price closed below the moving - average system, which lost its short - term support. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and was operating in the weak zone, alleviating the oversold condition. The trend indicator rose, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the dominance of short - position strength narrowing. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2605 will be in a consolidation phase [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a supply surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, global zinc plate production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a supply shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons. From January to November, global zinc ore production was 12.1419 million tons. The overall situation is bullish [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price was 22,910, and the basis was - 65, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On March 24, LME zinc inventory decreased by 75 tons to 117,100 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 774 tons to 99,824 tons compared to the previous day, showing a bullish situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish situation [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main positions were net long, but long positions decreased, showing a bullish situation [2]. 3.6 Futures Market Quotes on March 24 - The trading volume of zinc futures on March 24 was 206,373 lots, with a total trading value of 2.37325189 billion yuan. The open interest was 185,428 lots, a decrease of 5,547 lots compared to the previous day. Different delivery months had different price changes and trading volumes [3]. 3.7 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on March 24 - The price of zinc concentrate spot TC was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC of imported zinc concentrate was 20 US dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang had different price ranges and increases [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From March 12 to March 23, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets decreased from 231,100 tons to 219,500 tons, a decrease of 16,700 tons compared to March 16 and 9,500 tons compared to March 19 [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on March 24 - The total zinc warrants on March 24 were 99,824 tons, a decrease of 774 tons compared to the previous day. Different regions had different changes in warrants, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on March 24 - The total LME zinc inventory on March 24 was 117,100 tons, a decrease of 75 tons compared to the previous day. Different storage locations had different inventory changes [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on March 24 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Linzhou, and Kunming was mostly 19,770 yuan/ton, with an increase of 150 yuan/ton [8]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on March 24 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Zhengzhou Express, Sanmenxia Century, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan increased by 190 yuan/ton [11]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in February 2026 - The planned production in February 2026 was 468,700 tons, and the actual production was 470,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.87%, and the planned production for March was 490,200 tons [13]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on March 24 - The processing fees of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions were mostly between 1,400 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee of imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 20 US dollars/ton [15]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on March 24 - The total trading volume of members was 211,557 lots, an increase of 29,277 lots. The total long - position volume was 68,967 lots, a decrease of 1,979 lots, and the total short - position volume was 70,117 lots, a decrease of 305 lots [16].
大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260316
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 01:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that the short - term trend of Shanghai Zinc ZN2604 will be oscillating and weakening. The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc oscillating and falling, with shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with more long - position increases. Technically, the price closed below the moving - average system, losing short - term support. Short - term indicators like KDJ are in a weak area, and the trend indicator shows that the long - position power is rising while the short - position power is falling, with the two forces in a stalemate [2][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In November 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.197 million tons, consumption was 1.168 million tons, with a surplus of 29,000 tons. From January to November, production was 12.7561 million tons, consumption was 13.1065 million tons, with a shortage of 350,400 tons. In November, global zinc ore production was 1.069 million tons, and from January to November, it was 12.1419 million tons, indicating a positive outlook [2]. - The basis is - 50 with the spot price at 24,090, showing a neutral situation [2]. - On March 13, LME zinc inventory decreased by 850 tons to 97,900 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 398 tons to 86,093 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The main positions are net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is positive [2]. Futures Market - On March 13, the trading volume of zinc futures was 135,984 lots, and the trading value was 1.64806944 billion yuan. The total open interest was 183,422 lots, an increase of 7,280 lots [3]. Spot Market - On March 13, the price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 24,040 - 24,140 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 24,020 - 24,120 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 24,070 - 24,170 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 24,090 - 24,190 yuan/ton, all down 230 yuan/ton [4]. - The price of zinc concentrate with 50% grade in various regions on March 13 was around 20,610 - 20,710 yuan/ton, all down 190 yuan/ton [10]. - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters on March 13 was between 23,790 - 24,790 yuan/ton, all down 230 yuan/ton [13]. Inventory Situation - From March 2 to March 12, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 211,900 tons to 231,100 tons [5]. - On March 13, the total SHFE zinc warrants were 86,093 tons, an increase of 398 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 97,900 tons, a decrease of 850 tons [2][6][8]. Production Situation - In February 2026, the actual output of refined zinc in China was 470,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 10.01%. The planned output for March is 490,200 tons [15]. Processing Fee - On March 13, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% grade was generally between 1,400 - 1,700 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 30 US dollars/dry ton [17]. Member Trading and Position Ranking - On March 13, the total trading volume of SHFE zinc futures members was 134,852 lots, a decrease of 33,441 lots. The total long - position volume was 51,656 lots, an increase of 662 lots, and the total short - position volume was 51,871 lots, an increase of 1,772 lots [18].
大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260130
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 07:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2603 is expected to oscillate and decline. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillating and strengthening, with increased trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, with more reduction in long positions. Technically, the price is above the moving - average system with strong support, short - term indicators KDJ are rising and operating in the strong area, and the trend indicator shows that the long - position strength is increasing while the short - position strength is decreasing, but the market may still oscillate and fall in the short term [2][18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a bullish situation [2] 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 25,300, and the basis is - 650, showing a bearish situation [2] 3. Inventory Analysis - On January 29, LME zinc inventory decreased by 625 tons to 109,750 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 100 tons to 28,241 tons, presenting a bullish situation [2] 4. Futures Market Conditions on January 29 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices, trading volumes, and position changes vary. For example, for the 2603 contract, the opening price was 25,450, the highest price was 26,300, the closing price was 25,950, the trading volume was 329,041 lots, and the open interest decreased by 3,698 lots [3] 5. Domestic Spot Market Conditions on January 29 - The domestic spot price of zinc concentrate TC was 1,300 yuan/metal ton for domestic production and 40 - 50 dollars/dry ton for imports. The price of 0 zinc in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang increased, with prices ranging from 25,210 - 25,400 yuan/ton [4] 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From January 19 to January 29, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased. Compared with January 22, it decreased by 0.12 tons, and compared with January 26, it decreased by 0.20 tons [5] 7. Zinc Futures Warehouse Receipt Report on January 29 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on SHFE decreased by 100 tons to 28,241 tons, with decreases in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Tianjin [6] 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on January 29 - LME zinc inventory decreased by 625 tons to 109,750 tons, with changes in different locations such as Singapore [7] 9. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on January 29 - In major domestic cities, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate increased by 10 yuan, with prices ranging from 21,680 - 21,980 yuan [8] 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on January 29 - The price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters increased by 50 yuan, with prices ranging from 25,000 - 26,000 yuan [11] 11. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on January 28 - The processing fee for domestic 50% - grade zinc concentrate ranged from 1,100 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and for 48% - grade imported zinc concentrate, it was 30 - 50 dollars/kiloton [16] 12. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on January 29 - In terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [17]
沪锌期货早报-20251226
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2602) is expected to be a volatile rebound. The previous trading day saw a volatile decline in Shanghai zinc, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, with more long - position reductions. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, and short - term indicators suggest a possible upward movement, although the advantage of the long side is narrowing [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a bullish fundamental situation [2]. Basis - The spot price was 23,140, and the basis was +75, presenting a neutral situation [2]. Inventory - On December 24, LME zinc inventory increased by 7,900 tons to 106,875 tons. On December 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrant decreased by 1,092 tons to 41,319 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. Market Trends - On December 25, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts was 221,618 lots, with a trading value of 2.55074052 billion yuan. The total open interest was 196,811 lots, a decrease of 5,069 lots [3]. Spot Market - On December 25, the domestic spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 23,090 - 23,190 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,940 - 23,040 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 22,980 - 23,080 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 23,190 - 23,290 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 50 US dollars/dry ton [4]. Inventory Statistics - From December 15 to December 25, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 125,800 tons to 111,600 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons [5]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - On December 25, the total warehouse receipts of zinc futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 41,319 tons, a decrease of 1,092 tons. The warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 747 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 345 tons [7]. LME Inventory - On December 25, the LME zinc inventory increased in some locations. For example, in one location, the inventory increased by 7,900 tons to 106,875 tons, and in another, it increased by 8,300 tons to 70,650 tons [9]. Zinc Concentrate Price - On December 25, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions was around 19,850 yuan/ton, with a decline of 150 yuan/ton [10]. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On December 25, the price of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., decreased by 180 yuan/ton [13]. Refined Zinc Production - In November 2025, the actual production of domestic refined zinc was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 18.48%. The planned production in December was 477,500 tons [15]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On December 25, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% - grade was mostly in the range of 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee for 48% - grade was 40 - 60 US dollars/dry ton [17]. Futures Trading and Position Ranking - On December 25, the total trading volume of zinc futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 191,452 lots, a decrease of 83,328 lots. The total long - position was 62,162 lots, a decrease of 2,467 lots, and the total short - position was 67,074 lots, a decrease of 675 lots [18].
沪锌期货早报-20251222
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:14
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Zinc futures fluctuate and rise, closing with a positive line. The trading volume shrank, and both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. The market may fluctuate in the short - term. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined and operated in the weak zone. The trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength decreasing and the short - position strength increasing, but the long - position still had an advantage. It is recommended that Shanghai Zinc ZN2601 will fluctuate and strengthen [19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Information - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2] Basis Information - The spot price was 23,310, and the basis was +250 [2] Inventory Information - On December 19, LME zinc inventory increased by 500 tons to 99,900 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 771 tons to 45,178 tons [2] Futures Market Quotes - On December 19, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 186,636 lots, with a total trading value of 2.14791046 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 193,602 lots, an increase of 1,279 lots [3] Spot Market Quotes - On December 19, the price of domestic zinc concentrates: the domestic spot TC was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 50 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 23,260 - 23,360 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,960 - 23,060 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 23,025 - 23,125 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 23,245 - 23,345 yuan/ton [4] Inventory Statistics - From December 8 to December 18, 2025, the total zinc ingot inventory in major domestic markets decreased from 132,300 tons to 118,600 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons [5] Warehouse Receipt Report - On December 19, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 45,178 tons, a decrease of 771 tons [7] LME Inventory Distribution - On December 19, the total LME zinc inventory was 99,900 tons, an increase of 500 tons [9] Zinc Concentrate Price - On December 19, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrates in major domestic cities increased by 30 yuan/ton [10] Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On December 19, the price of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased by 30 yuan/ton [13] Refined Zinc Production - In November 2025, the actual domestic refined zinc production was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 18.48%. The production was 4.93% lower than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 69.45%. The planned production for December was 477,500 tons [15] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On December 19, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% - grade was generally between 1,400 - 2,200 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee for 48% - grade was 50 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/dry ton [17] Member Trading and Position Ranking - On December 19, the total trading volume of zinc futures by SHFE members was 106,373 lots, a decrease of 55,015 lots. The total long - position was 35,180 lots, a decrease of 4,851 lots, and the total short - position was 33,486 lots, a decrease of 3,318 lots [18]
沪锌期货早报-20251203
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-03 02:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of the Shanghai zinc ZN2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly. Although the previous trading day showed an upward trend with increased trading volume, more long - positions were added and short - positions were reduced, and the technical indicators presented a complex situation [19][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons and consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons and consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2] 2. Basis - The spot price was 22,850, and the basis was + 105, showing a neutral situation [2] 3. Inventory - On December 2, LME zinc inventory increased by 350 tons to 52,375 tons, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 1,974 tons to 63,804 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2] 4. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on December 2 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on December 2 totaled 176,420 lots, and the total trading value was 2.0037175 billion yuan. The open interest was 196,148 lots, an increase of 4,053 lots [3] 5. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on December 2 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported comprehensive TC was 70 US dollars/thousand tons. The prices of 0 zinc in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang all increased, with an increase of 160 - 200 yuan/ton [4] 6. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (November 17 - 27, 2025) - The total zinc ingot inventory in major Chinese markets decreased from 162,400 tons on November 17 to 140,400 tons on November 27 [5] 7. SHFE Zinc Warrant Report on December 2 - The total SHFE zinc warrant on December 2 was 63,804 tons, a decrease of 1,974 tons compared to the previous day [6] 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on December 2 - The inventory in different locations showed different changes, such as an increase of 350 tons at one location and a decrease of 250 tons at another [8] 9. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on December 2 - No detailed price information provided 10. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on December 2 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters, including Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all increased by 180 yuan/ton [13] 11. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - The actual production in October 2025 was 524,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and an increase of 2.88% compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 73.33%, and the planned production for November was 522,300 tons [15] 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on December 2 - The zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied, with domestic prices ranging from 2,100 - 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee being 70 US dollars/thousand tons [17] 13. SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on December 2 - The total trading volume of members was 199,086 lots, a decrease of 3,242 lots; the total long - position was 75,263 lots, an increase of 350 lots; the total short - position was 70,088 lots, a decrease of 1,518 lots [18]
沪锌期货早报-20250723
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 01:40
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The short - term view is that the previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show an oscillating upward trend, closing with a positive line, increasing trading volume, with long - positions increasing and short - positions decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short term. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2509 will oscillate and strengthen [21]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Fundamental Information - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is bullish [2]. - The basis of spot zinc is 22,790, with a basis of - 155, which is bearish [2]. - On July 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,625 tons to 116,600 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,002 tons to 12,090 tons, which is neutral [2]. - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average upward, which is bullish [2]. - The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (July 22) - For different delivery months (from 2508 to 2607), details such as opening price, high price, low price, closing price, change, trading volume, trading value, and open interest change are provided. For example, for the 2509 contract, the opening price was 22,880, the high was 22,985, the low was 22,760, the closing price was 22,945, with an increase of 160 compared to the previous settlement price, and the trading volume was 184,578 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (July 22) - The prices and price changes of zinc - related products such as zinc concentrate, zinc ingot, galvanized sheet, galvanized pipe, zinc alloy, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide are presented. For example, the price of zinc concentrate was 17,370 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,790 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [4]. 4. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 10 - July 21) - The inventory data of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu are provided. The total inventory on July 21 was 755,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons compared to July 14 and July 17 [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (July 22) - The zinc warrants in different regions (Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Tianjin) and warehouses are reported. The total zinc warrants on that day were 12,090 tons, an increase of 1,002 tons [7]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution (July 22) - The inventory in Singapore and other places is reported. The total inventory was 116,600 tons, a decrease of 1,625 tons compared to the previous day [8]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (July 22) - The prices and price changes of 50% grade zinc concentrate in different regions (Jiyuan, Kunming, Hechi, etc.) are provided. Most regions saw a price decrease of 30 yuan/ton [9]. 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (July 22) - The price information of 0 zinc ingots from different manufacturers (such as Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan, etc.) is provided, with a price decrease of 40 yuan/ton for all [13]. 9. June 2025 Domestic Refined Zinc Production - The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The planned production in July is 470,300 tons [16]. 10. July 21 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - The processing fees for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions and 48% grade imported zinc concentrate are provided. For example, the processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate in Hilt Hall ranges from 3,700 to 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% grade zinc concentrate ranges from 60 to 80 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 11. July 22 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the zn2509 contract, the trading volume, long - position volume, and short - position volume of different futures companies, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day, are provided. The total trading volume decreased by 72,372 lots, the total long - position volume increased by 3,165 lots, and the total short - position volume decreased by 1,688 lots [19].
沪锌期货早报-20250625
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view is that the previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillate and rebound, closing with a positive line, increasing trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with more long - position increases. The market may oscillate and strengthen in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the short - term moving average, and the moving average support gradually strengthened. The short - term indicator KDJ rose and entered the strong area; the trend indicator declined, the long - position strength increased, the short - position strength increased, and the advantage of the short - position strength decreased. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai zinc ZN2508 will oscillate and strengthen [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In March 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.0874 million tons, consumption was 1.1335 million tons, with a supply shortage of 46,000 tons. From January to March, global zinc plate production was 3.2831 million tons, consumption was 3.3848 million tons, with a supply shortage of 101,600 tons. In March, global zinc ore production was 1.0078 million tons, and from January to March, it was 2.9611 million tons, indicating a bullish situation [2]. - The basis was +250 with the spot price at 22,170, also showing a bullish situation [2]. - On June 24, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,450 tons to 123,450 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 248 tons to 7,471 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The main positions were net long, changing from short to long, which is bullish [2]. 3.2 Futures Market - On June 24, the zinc futures of different delivery months on the futures exchange showed different price changes. For example, for the 2508 contract, the previous settlement was 21,735, the opening price was 21,875, the highest price was 22,030, the lowest price was 21,825, the closing price was 21,920, with an increase of 185 [3]. 3.3 Spot Market - On June 24, the prices of various zinc - related products in the domestic main spot markets changed. For example, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shiliu was 22,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 210 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 Inventory Statistics - From May 29 to June 23, the inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets changed. The total inventory on June 23 was 58,200 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons compared with the previous Thursday and an increase of 1,200 tons compared with the previous Monday [5]. 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On June 24, the total zinc warehouse receipts in the futures exchange were 7,471 tons, a decrease of 248 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 98 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 150 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On June 24, the LME zinc inventory was 123,450 tons, a decrease of 2,450 tons compared with the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts were 89,875 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts were 33,575 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 27.20% [7]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Price - On June 24, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions increased by 170 yuan/ton, such as 16,980 yuan/ton in Jiyuan and 17,080 yuan/ton in Chenzhou [8]. 3.8 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On June 24, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters increased by 200 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,510 yuan/ton [12]. 3.9 Refined Zinc Production - In May 2025, the production of refined zinc was 422,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.74%. The capacity utilization rate was 78.00%, and the planned production in June was 453,700 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On June 24, the processing fees of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions were stable, with small fluctuations. For example, the average processing fee in H was 3,600 yuan/metal ton, and the average processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 50 US dollars/thousand tons [16]. 3.11 Futures Company Transaction and Position Ranking - For the zn2508 contract on June 24, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures with 53,276 lots (an increase of 20,812 lots), Guotai Junan with 52,441 lots (an increase of 26,168 lots), and Orient Futures with 40,715 lots (an increase of 15,717 lots). In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 12,508 lots (an increase of 267 lots), Guotai Junan with 8,219 lots (an increase of 2,682 lots), and Orient Futures with 8,072 lots (an increase of 3,384 lots). In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures with 12,804 lots (an increase of 31 lots), Orient Futures with 6,788 lots (an increase of 797 lots), and Guotai Junan with 6,526 lots (an increase of 961 lots) [17].