Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The suspension of export restrictions to the U.S. is expected to boost China's antimony exports, which accounted for 36% of the country's antimony production in 2023 [2] - The price gap between domestic and international antimony is anticipated to narrow as exports resume [3] - Antimony prices have shown significant fluctuations influenced by export policies and demand changes, with a notable increase of 68% from February 10 to April 17, 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Export Policy Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced a one-year suspension of export restrictions to the U.S., which is expected to lead to a recovery in antimony exports [2] - The announcement includes stricter controls on dual-use items, particularly for military applications [2] Price Trends - Antimony ingot prices rose from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton between February 10 and April 17, 2025, before declining to 150,000 CNY/ton by November 6, 2025 [4] - The price of antimony in the UK was approximately 31.7 million CNY/ton as of November 7, 2025, indicating a significant premium over domestic prices [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining, as the resumption of exports is expected to support domestic antimony prices [4]

Summary of Antimony Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The antimony market is influenced by export policies and photovoltaic (PV) demand, with prices stabilizing between 188,000 to 189,000 CNY/ton, expected to rise to 230,000 to 250,000 CNY/ton by year-end due to export policy impacts [1][3][31] - Domestic antimony supply is declining, with an estimated production of 66,000 tons in 2024, projected to drop to 45,000 to 46,000 tons in 2025 due to factors like the shutdown of Shaanxi Xinxing Antimony Industry and environmental policies [1][4] Key Points Price Trends - Antimony prices surged from around 140,000 CNY to a peak of 230,000 to 240,000 CNY between January and April 2025, driven by export and PV demand growth, and reduced import raw materials [3] - A price drop occurred from May to July due to reduced export volumes and slowing PV demand, stabilizing at 188,000 to 189,000 CNY [3] - By the end of 2025, prices are expected to rise again due to national export policy impacts [2][31] Supply Dynamics - Domestic antimony supply has decreased from 180,000 tons in 2008 to approximately 66,000 tons in 2024, with a further decline expected in 2025 [4] - Major supply disruptions include the shutdown of Shaanxi Xinxing Antimony Industry and environmental regulations affecting companies like Hunan Chenzhou Mining [4] - Internationally, supply from Talvivaara is significantly below expectations, with only 2,300 tons produced in Q1 2025 and no new plans for the second half of the year [5] Demand Insights - Global antimony demand is projected to reach 168,000 to 170,000 tons by 2025, with China accounting for over half of this demand [6] - Key applications include flame retardants (47% of overseas demand) and photovoltaic glass (30%), with domestic demand primarily driven by the PV sector [6] - Military demand in China is approximately 30% of total demand, with an expected increase in 2025 [23] Inventory and Market Conditions - Domestic port inventories are around 18,000 tons, with refined antimony metal inventory at approximately 37,000 tons, slightly down from 43,000 tons in 2024 [7][21] - The lack of effective substitutes for antimony supports its price stability, with companies like CATL and BYD planning to use antimony-based anode materials, potentially adding 20,000 tons to demand [8][9] Regulatory Environment - The export approval process for antimony is lengthy, taking 1.5 to 2 months, with strict regulations, especially for military applications [10][11] - Anticipated policy relaxations in October may lead to a surge in exports, particularly for flame retardants [12] Future Outlook - The antimony price is expected to rise to around 230,000 CNY by the end of 2025, with potential further increases in Q1 2026 due to seasonal supply reductions [2][31] - Despite some demand reductions in PV and new technologies, overall demand is expected to grow, particularly in military applications, leading to a tighter supply situation [31] Additional Considerations - The construction of new smelting facilities in Southeast Asia is progressing slowly, with operational rates only at half capacity due to political instability [13] - The impact of rising prices on the flame retardant market is significant, with traditional materials facing challenges from new technologies that are not yet mature enough for large-scale replacement [27][28]