节后多数金属价格继续回暖，后续仍看好关键 金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼供应扰动提升市场供给偏紧预期，对镍矿价格或 有支撑 截止到 2 月 27 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 17685 美元/ 吨，较 2 月 20 日上涨 3.09%，LME 镍总库存为 287976 吨， 较 2 月 20 日增加 0.09%；沪镍报收 14.15 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 1.05%，沪镍库存为 60,791 吨，较 2 月 13 日增加 0.03%；截止到 2 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 33 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 0.30%。根据 SMM，政策端，市场正密切关注印 尼 ESDM 于 2026 年 2 月 10 日发布 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配 额，司长 Tri Winarno 确认本年度获批产量仅为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿 吨。这一紧缩趋势在重点项目中尤为显著：据 Eramet 官方消 息，WBN 收到的最初配额仅为 1200 万湿吨，较去年的 4200 万湿吨大幅缩减。整体市场将维持供需紧平 ...

本文核心数据：锑行业上市企业锑相关收入;锑行业上市企业锑产品产量;湖南黄金发展历程等 锑产品产量位居行业第一 锑，英文名称Antimony，元素符号：Sb，外观为质脆有光泽的银白色固体。锑储存量较少，稀有度较 高，属于战略性矿产资源，因常被用作工业生产中的添加剂，也被称作"工业味精"。目前我国锑产业链 企业较多，但上中游，采选及冶炼加工企业较少，湖南黄金作为锑行业龙头企业，锑产品产量、销量以 及业务营收均位居行业第一。 | 公司简称 | 锡相关业务 营收 | | 锡相关业 务毛利 | 锡相关业务 毛利率 | 锑及锑相关产 | 锦及锡相关产 | 备注说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 品产量(吨) | 品销量(吨) | | | | (亿元) | | (亿元) | (%) | | | | | 湖南黄金 | 20 .. 0 24.78 | | 10.73 | | | | 锦晶包括精锅、 氧化器、含量 | | | | | | 43.30% | 锑晶:29209 吨 | 锑品:26654 吨 | | | | | | | | ...

有色观点更新220260223 钨：截至2月13日，钨精矿价格报69.7万元/标吨，周涨幅3.3%；较2025年末上涨23.7万元，涨幅51%。 钨价延续2026年以来的强劲上涨惯性，同时受到大型钨企长单报价的支撑，整体呈现先扬后稳的运行态势。 国际钨价跟涨，主要基于供应链短缺压力，作为全球钨资源80%的供应来源，中国出口管制和私采打击等措施， 导致海外原料采购难度加大，叠加海外钨资源项 有色观点更新220260223 钨：截至2月13日，钨精矿价格报69.7万元/标吨，周涨幅3.3%；较2025年末上涨23.7万元，涨幅51%。 重点关注：厦门钨业、中钨高新、翔鹭钨业。 锂：本周碳酸锂现货价格震荡上行。 电池级碳酸锂均价从周初的13.55万元/吨持续上涨至周四的14.25万元/吨，全周上涨7000元/吨。 工业级碳酸锂均价从13.2万元/吨上涨至13.9万元/吨，上涨7000元/吨。 期货市场表现强劲，主力合约价格区间自周初的13.5-14.1万元/吨震荡上行至14.6-15.24万元/吨。 随着春节临近，物流陆续暂停，下游材料厂对2月份的备货已基本完成，多数企业转向观望，采购心理价位偏低。 市场成交以零星 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report expresses optimism for key metals in the future despite recent price declines due to market panic [1] - Supply tightening expectations remain for nickel, cobalt, antimony, lithium, rare earths, tin, tungsten, and uranium, which may support prices in the coming months [1][2][8][11][13][14][22] Nickel and Cobalt Industry Summary - As of January 30, LME nickel settled at $17,540 per ton, down 5.85% from January 23, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 0.90% to 286,284 tons [1] - Supply constraints are expected due to increased rainfall in Indonesia affecting mining and shipping operations, alongside regulatory pressures leading to conservative sales strategies [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel mining quotas to 250-260 million tons, which is anticipated to support nickel prices [1][16] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 446,000 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 1.83% [2][17] Antimony Industry Summary - Antimony prices have increased, with antimony ingot averaging 162,500 yuan per ton as of January 29, up 1.25% [6] - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to production halts at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry, which may reduce output by over 2,000 tons [6][19] Lithium Industry Summary - Lithium carbonate prices fell to 160,400 yuan per ton as of January 30, down 6.22% [8] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to environmental assessments delaying mining operations in Jiangxi, impacting future supply [8] - Demand is expected to remain strong, potentially stabilizing prices despite recent declines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Summary - The report highlights tightening supply expectations for rare earths, particularly due to new regulations in Vietnam and ongoing geopolitical tensions [20] - The global rare earth supply chain remains heavily reliant on China, which continues to dominate production capabilities [20] Tin Industry Summary - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, with LME tin settling at $54,000 per ton as of January 30, down 0.37% [11] - Supply concerns persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing regulatory actions in Indonesia [11][12] Tungsten Industry Summary - Tungsten prices have seen significant increases, with white tungsten concentrate priced at 597,500 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 11.58% [13] - Supply constraints are expected to continue due to strict mining quotas and environmental regulations [13][21] Uranium Industry Summary - Uranium prices remain high, with global market prices at $63.51 per pound, supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [14][22] - The report indicates a persistent supply-demand gap in the uranium market, with expectations for continued price support [14][22]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain bullish, supported by ongoing inventory depletion and supply-side disruptions [8][27] - Nickel prices may find support due to potential reductions in Indonesia's nickel ore quotas and additional taxes on associated resources [1][27] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise further due to a persistent supply shortage, with structural tightness expected to last for the next two years [5][17] - The antimony market is expected to see prices converge towards higher international levels due to export restrictions and tight supply [6][19] - The rare earth industry remains dominated by China, despite overseas efforts to develop supply chains, with significant supply tightening expected [9][20] - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo [11][21] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to ongoing supply tightness and regulatory controls on mining quotas [13][22] - Uranium prices are likely to be supported by ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical factors affecting global energy security [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore production target is set to be reduced to 250 million tons, down 34% from 379 million tons in 2025, to prevent further price declines [1][27] - The Indonesian government plans to classify cobalt and iron as independent commodities and impose a royalty tax of 1.5%-2%, potentially generating an additional $600 million annually [1][27] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise towards international levels due to export controls and tight supply conditions [6][19] Lithium Industry Update - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 97,700 CNY/ton, with a 3.27% increase [8][27] - Supply stability is expected from lithium salt plants, while demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage markets remains strong [8][27] Rare Earth Industry Update - China continues to dominate global rare earth supply, with new export restrictions from Vietnam further tightening the market [9][20] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, particularly from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo [11][21] Tungsten Industry Update - Supply tightness in the tungsten market is expected to persist due to regulatory controls and reduced mining quotas [13][22] Uranium Industry Update - Ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical factors are expected to support uranium prices in the near term [14][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the divergence in antimony prices between domestic and international markets in November, with domestic prices increasing while international prices decreased [1][3]. Group 2 - Domestic antimony ingot prices rose from 148,000-151,000 CNY/ton at the beginning of November to 169,000-176,000 CNY/ton by the end of the month [1]. - International antimony ingot prices fell from 45,000-48,500 USD/ton at the beginning of November to 42,000-44,000 USD/ton by the end of the month [1]. Group 3 - The domestic antimony market faced pressure despite a rebound in early November, driven by expectations of relaxed export policies and strong performance in the antimony electronic market [3]. - As November progressed, the momentum for price increases weakened, with downstream enterprises avoiding large stockpiling due to high costs and opting for on-demand purchasing instead [3]. - The current consumption situation indicates that the price increase lacks solid fundamental support, leading to a more cautious market outlook as trading activity diminished towards the end of the month [3]. - It is anticipated that antimony prices will enter a phase of high-level fluctuations in December, with future price movements dependent on the recovery of actual consumption demand [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has announced a suspension of export restrictions on dual-use items to the United States, which is expected to boost China's antimony exports and potentially ease restrictions on exports to non-U.S. countries [4][5]. Group 1: Export Policy Changes - The Ministry of Commerce's announcement on November 9, 2025, suspends the implementation of the export control measures outlined in Announcement No. 46, which includes prohibiting dual-use items for military users in the U.S. and stricter licensing for certain materials [5]. - The suspension is effective immediately and will last until November 27, 2026, allowing for a potential recovery in exports of antimony and other dual-use items to the U.S. [5][6]. Group 2: Antimony Export Outlook - In 2023, China's antimony export volume accounted for 36% of its total production. The recent crackdown on export smuggling has significantly reduced antimony exports, with monthly figures dropping to 2%-7% of the normal average [6]. - The easing of export restrictions is anticipated to directly restore antimony exports to the U.S. and may also lead to increased exports to other countries, thereby driving overall growth in China's antimony exports [6]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The price of antimony ingots in China rose from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton between February 10 and April 17, 2025, marking a 68% increase due to low inventory, difficult raw material replenishment, and strong demand [8]. - Following this peak, prices fell to 150,000 CNY/ton by November 6, 2025, influenced by government policies targeting smuggling and a significant drop in antimony oxide exports [8]. - The price of antimony in the UK as of November 7, 2025, was approximately 44,750 USD/ton, indicating a substantial premium over domestic prices, suggesting that the price gap between domestic and international markets may narrow as exports recover [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6] Core Viewpoints - The suspension of export restrictions to the U.S. is expected to boost China's antimony exports, which accounted for 36% of the country's antimony production in 2023 [2] - The price gap between domestic and international antimony is anticipated to narrow as exports resume [3] - Antimony prices have shown significant fluctuations influenced by export policies and demand changes, with a notable increase of 68% from February 10 to April 17, 2025 [4] Summary by Sections Export Policy Impact - The Ministry of Commerce announced a one-year suspension of export restrictions to the U.S., which is expected to lead to a recovery in antimony exports [2] - The announcement includes stricter controls on dual-use items, particularly for military applications [2] Price Trends - Antimony ingot prices rose from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton between February 10 and April 17, 2025, before declining to 150,000 CNY/ton by November 6, 2025 [4] - The price of antimony in the UK was approximately 31.7 million CNY/ton as of November 7, 2025, indicating a significant premium over domestic prices [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining, as the resumption of exports is expected to support domestic antimony prices [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Antimony Sector Industry Overview - The antimony sector is experiencing a potential recovery in export demand due to changes in export policies, particularly from the United States, which has relaxed controls on dual-use items, although military exports remain restricted [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Export Recovery**: The direct export to the U.S. is expected to recover to 10,000 metric tons, accounting for over 7% of total production. Additionally, the anticipated easing of restrictions from other countries could recover another 16,000 metric tons, representing 12% of total production, leading to a total demand recovery of at least 26,000 metric tons, equivalent to 20% of total production [1][4]. - **Supply Chain Challenges**: The global antimony supply chain is under significant pressure, with China's production expected to decline by 20% in 2025 due to environmental inspections. Furthermore, overseas mines are also reducing output, with no new production capacity expected in the next two years [1][5]. - **Futures Market Impact**: The potential launch of antimony futures on the Wuxi exchange is anticipated to enhance price discovery and attract more market attention, similar to the price increases seen with other commodities after their futures were introduced [1][6]. - **Market Concerns**: There are concerns regarding the current high stock prices and the impact of U.S.-China relations on valuations. However, the expected increase in earnings per share (EPS) is projected to drive stock prices higher, with the overall sector valuation remaining manageable [1][7]. Additional Insights - **Stock Recommendations**: Companies such as Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Yuguang Gold Lead are highlighted as beneficiaries of rising domestic prices. Hunan Gold is noted for its significant profit elasticity, while Huaxi Nonferrous is recognized for its long-term growth potential due to rapid integrated capacity expansion [1][8]. - **Long-term Growth Potential**: Despite short-term challenges, companies like Huayu Mining are expected to maintain long-term growth prospects supported by various projects, including those in Kazakhstan and Ethiopia [1][3][8].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic revaluation of key metals, particularly focusing on rare earths and cobalt [24] - Nickel prices are expected to be supported due to tightened supply expectations following Indonesia's new regulation reducing the approval cycle for mining plans from three years to one year [26][27] - Cobalt prices have continued to rise, with expectations of increasing supply tightness further driving prices up [30][33] - Antimony supply is expected to remain tight, providing a bottom support for antimony prices [34] - Lithium carbonate prices are projected to remain strong due to ongoing demand and inventory depletion [16] - China's dominance in rare earth supply is reinforced by stricter export controls, which are expected to support rare earth prices [18] - Tin supply remains uncertain due to ongoing challenges in overseas supply, which is expected to support tin prices [19] - Tungsten prices are supported by a tightening supply situation, with production rates slowing down [20] - Uranium supply tightness is anticipated to continue, supporting uranium prices [21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's new regulation on mining approvals is expected to tighten future ore supply, supporting nickel prices [26] - As of October 24, LME nickel price was $15,085 per ton, up 1.04% from October 17 [26] - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, with electrolytic cobalt reaching 408,500 CNY per ton, a 6.94% increase [30] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices have decreased, but long-term supply tightness is expected to support prices [34] - China's antimony production is projected to dominate global supply, accounting for 60% of the total [34] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a market average of 73,700 CNY per ton as of October 24 [16] - Demand from the battery sector continues to drive price support [16] Rare Earth Industry Update - China's strict export controls on rare earths are expected to tighten supply and support prices [18] - The report highlights the importance of China's role in the global rare earth supply chain [18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply uncertainties, particularly from Myanmar and Indonesia [19] - As of October 24, LME tin price was $35,925 per ton, up 2.42% from October 17 [19] Tungsten Industry Update - The tungsten supply situation is tightening, with production rates slowing down [20] - Prices for tungsten concentrate have increased, reflecting supply constraints [20] Uranium Industry Update - The report indicates a continued tight supply situation for uranium, supporting price stability [21] - Recent production guidance reductions from major suppliers are expected to impact future supply [21]