Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report highlights the tightening supply expectations for nickel due to the Indonesian government's suspension of 39 nickel mining companies, which may lead to increased market prices [24][26] - Cobalt supply is expected to tighten further as the Democratic Republic of Congo extends its export ban and shifts to a quota system starting October 16, which is likely to support cobalt prices [31][30] - The report indicates a long-term tight supply situation for antimony, which is expected to support prices, especially as domestic prices remain lower than international levels [36][34] - Lithium market shows signs of supply tightness, with domestic prices slightly down but still supported by overall demand growth [16][8] - The rare earth sector is experiencing strong export demand, and stricter controls may support future prices [9][16] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness, particularly in the Yunnan region, with limited recovery in Indonesian exports [17][10] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to resilient demand in hard alloys and special steels, despite recent price declines [12][18] - The uranium market is facing a tightening supply outlook, which is likely to support prices in the medium to long term [13][18] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt - Indonesian government has suspended 39 nickel mining companies, impacting supply expectations [24] - Cobalt prices are rising due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [31][30] Antimony - Long-term supply tightness is expected to support antimony prices, with domestic prices lagging behind international levels [36][34] Lithium - The lithium market is experiencing supply tightness, with prices slightly down but supported by demand growth [16][8] Rare Earths - Strong export demand and stricter controls are expected to support rare earth prices [9][16] Tin - Tin prices are supported by supply tightness, particularly in Yunnan, with limited recovery in Indonesian exports [17][10] Tungsten - Resilient demand in hard alloys and special steels is expected to support tungsten prices despite recent declines [12][18] Uranium - The uranium market is facing a tightening supply outlook, likely supporting prices in the medium to long term [13][18]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from Huafu Securities indicates that antimony export expectations are strengthening, and the industry is approaching the traditional peak season of September and October [1] - Short-term, with the increase in export expectations, antimony prices are likely to rebound from the bottom [1] Group 2: Antimony Ore - In July 2025, China imported 2,307 tons of antimony ore, a month-on-month increase of 483 tons (+27%) but a year-on-year decrease of 3,885 tons (-63%); from January to July, imports totaled 20,223 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11,834 tons (-37%) [1] - In July, China imported 0 tons from Tajikistan (down 76 tons), 428 tons from Russia (up 428), 365 tons from Peru (down 397), and other countries with varying import volumes [1] - From January to July, companies registered in Shandong imported 8,180 tons of other precious metal ores from Russia, a month-on-month increase of 21% but a year-on-year decrease of 21%; total imports for the same period reached 67,732 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15,168 tons (+29%) [1] Group 3: Antimony Ingots - In July, the production of antimony ingots was 3,767 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 35%; from January to July, cumulative production was 40,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6% (-2,387 tons) [2] - In July, China exported 0 tons of antimony ingots, with cumulative exports from January to July totaling 267 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 86% [2] Group 4: Antimony Oxide - In July, the production of antimony oxide was 4,780 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 40%; cumulative production from January to July was 45,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25% [3] - In July, exports totaled 74 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13 tons (-15%) and a year-on-year decrease of 2,725 tons (-97%); cumulative exports from January to July were 4,725 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15,369 tons (-77%) [3] Group 5: Downstream Demand - In July, the production of sodium antimonate was 2,738 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 16%; cumulative production from January to July was 15,806 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38% [4] - In July, photovoltaic glass production was 2.17 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11% but a year-on-year decrease of 17%; cumulative production from January to July was 15.01 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10% [4] - In July, chemical fiber production was 7.34 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% but a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; cumulative production from January to July was 49.98 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5% [4] - In July, ABS resin production was 560,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.3% and a year-on-year increase of 19%; cumulative production from January to July was 3.78 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26% [4] - In July, the total production of PET (including polyester chips, flat sheets, short fibers, and long fibers) was 6.34 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 17%; cumulative production from January to July was 42.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14% [4] Group 6: Supply, Demand, and Prices - As of August 20, 2025, the price of antimony ingots in China was 182,500 yuan per ton, down 24% from the year's peak; overseas antimony prices ranged from 55,000 to 58,000 USD per ton, with expectations of further price declines due to continuous capacity release abroad and rising domestic export expectations [5] - The report suggests that with the strengthening of export expectations, prices may rebound from the bottom in the short term [5]

Summary of Antimony Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The antimony market is influenced by export policies and photovoltaic (PV) demand, with prices stabilizing between 188,000 to 189,000 CNY/ton, expected to rise to 230,000 to 250,000 CNY/ton by year-end due to export policy impacts [1][3][31] - Domestic antimony supply is declining, with an estimated production of 66,000 tons in 2024, projected to drop to 45,000 to 46,000 tons in 2025 due to factors like the shutdown of Shaanxi Xinxing Antimony Industry and environmental policies [1][4] Key Points Price Trends - Antimony prices surged from around 140,000 CNY to a peak of 230,000 to 240,000 CNY between January and April 2025, driven by export and PV demand growth, and reduced import raw materials [3] - A price drop occurred from May to July due to reduced export volumes and slowing PV demand, stabilizing at 188,000 to 189,000 CNY [3] - By the end of 2025, prices are expected to rise again due to national export policy impacts [2][31] Supply Dynamics - Domestic antimony supply has decreased from 180,000 tons in 2008 to approximately 66,000 tons in 2024, with a further decline expected in 2025 [4] - Major supply disruptions include the shutdown of Shaanxi Xinxing Antimony Industry and environmental regulations affecting companies like Hunan Chenzhou Mining [4] - Internationally, supply from Talvivaara is significantly below expectations, with only 2,300 tons produced in Q1 2025 and no new plans for the second half of the year [5] Demand Insights - Global antimony demand is projected to reach 168,000 to 170,000 tons by 2025, with China accounting for over half of this demand [6] - Key applications include flame retardants (47% of overseas demand) and photovoltaic glass (30%), with domestic demand primarily driven by the PV sector [6] - Military demand in China is approximately 30% of total demand, with an expected increase in 2025 [23] Inventory and Market Conditions - Domestic port inventories are around 18,000 tons, with refined antimony metal inventory at approximately 37,000 tons, slightly down from 43,000 tons in 2024 [7][21] - The lack of effective substitutes for antimony supports its price stability, with companies like CATL and BYD planning to use antimony-based anode materials, potentially adding 20,000 tons to demand [8][9] Regulatory Environment - The export approval process for antimony is lengthy, taking 1.5 to 2 months, with strict regulations, especially for military applications [10][11] - Anticipated policy relaxations in October may lead to a surge in exports, particularly for flame retardants [12] Future Outlook - The antimony price is expected to rise to around 230,000 CNY by the end of 2025, with potential further increases in Q1 2026 due to seasonal supply reductions [2][31] - Despite some demand reductions in PV and new technologies, overall demand is expected to grow, particularly in military applications, leading to a tighter supply situation [31] Additional Considerations - The construction of new smelting facilities in Southeast Asia is progressing slowly, with operational rates only at half capacity due to political instability [13] - The impact of rising prices on the flame retardant market is significant, with traditional materials facing challenges from new technologies that are not yet mature enough for large-scale replacement [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the antimony industry, highlighting significant demand growth and supply constraints, suggesting a bullish investment rating for antimony-related assets. Core Insights - Recent price increases for antimony are driven by improved exports, rising domestic demand, and a contraction in imported ore supply [2][3] - The domestic supply-demand gap for antimony is projected to reach 25,000 tons, representing 24% of domestic demand, necessitating a price adjustment to at least 294,000 RMB per ton to align with import costs [4][6] - Global antimony demand is expected to grow from 151,000 tons in 2024 to 165,000 tons in 2027, with a CAGR of 2.9%, while supply is anticipated to decline at a rate of -1.2% during the same period [9][10] Summary by Sections Recent Price Movements - Antimony prices have risen due to three main factors: improved exports, increased domestic demand from flame retardants and photovoltaic sectors, and reduced imports [2][3] - Exports of antimony oxide have shown significant recovery, with December exports reaching 1,571 tons, a 102% month-on-month increase [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic supply of antimony is constrained, with total supply estimated at 80,000 tons against a demand of 110,000 tons, leading to a significant shortfall [4][6] - The report emphasizes that even with maximum export recovery, a supply gap of 10,000 tons remains in overseas markets, indicating persistent tightness in the global antimony market [5] Long-term Industry Outlook - Antimony is recognized as a strategic metal with emerging demand in new applications and safety stock considerations [9] - The report highlights the importance of antimony in various sectors, including flame retardants (50% of consumption) and photovoltaic glass (24% of consumption) [9] - The global antimony supply is projected to face increasing pressure, with China's production expected to decline from 180,000 tons in 2008 to 60,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -7% [10] Company Performance - Companies like Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, and Huaxi Nonferrous are positioned as key players in the antimony market, with significant resources and strategic plans to enhance their market positions [14]