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锑行业月报(2025.6):6月锑品产量环比大幅下降-20250805
Huafu Securities· 2025-08-05 05:09
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][58] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant decline in antimony production and imports, with June 2025 antimony ingot production at 4,989 tons, down 22% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [3][19] - The report suggests that domestic supply and demand are both weak, with major manufacturers maintaining prices while waiting for export recovery [5][51] Summary by Sections 1. Upstream Antimony Ore - In June 2025, antimony ore imports were 1,824 tons, a decrease of 22% month-on-month and 60% year-on-year [3][11] - The average import price for antimony ore in June was $2,960 per ton, down 64% month-on-month and 44% year-on-year [11] 2. Midstream Antimony Ingots - Antimony ingot production in June was 4,989 tons, a decrease of 22% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [19] - Cumulative exports for the first half of 2025 were 267 tons, down 84% year-on-year [21] 3. Midstream Antimony Oxide - Antimony oxide production in June was 5,315 tons, down 32% month-on-month and 38% year-on-year [26] - Cumulative exports for the first half of 2025 were 4,651 tons, down 73% year-on-year [28] 4. Downstream Demand - Chemical fiber production in June was 7.36 million tons, up 0.2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year [31] - The production of polyester products increased by 13% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [33] 5. Supply and Prices - As of July 31, 2025, the price of antimony ingots was 187,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 17% year-on-year [43] - The report notes a tightening supply trend for antimony in 2025, with a significant decrease in imports [43] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, which are expected to benefit from dual drivers in the antimony market [5][51]
锑行业月报(2025.4):供需双弱博弈,国内锑锭价格回调-20250521
Huafu Securities· 2025-05-21 02:18
Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][64]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a weak supply and demand situation in the antimony industry, with domestic antimony ingot prices experiencing a correction. However, large manufacturers are maintaining prices, suggesting limited downside potential [5][48]. - The report highlights that the domestic market is facing weak demand from downstream sectors such as photovoltaics and flame retardants, leading to a sluggish trading environment [4][48]. Summary by Sections Antimony Ore - In April 2025, antimony ore imports reached 4,239 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2,756 tons (+186%), but a year-on-year decrease of 2,096 tons (-33.1%). Cumulative imports from January to April totaled 13,769 tons, down 5,360 tons (-28%) year-on-year [3][11]. - The average import price for antimony ore in April was $5,908 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 125% and a year-on-year increase of 48% [11]. Antimony Ingot - Antimony ingot production in April was 6,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10% but a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Cumulative production from January to April was 25,295 tons, up 5.6% year-on-year [4][18]. - Exports in April were 90 tons, down 34% month-on-month and down 62% year-on-year, with cumulative exports from January to April totaling 247 tons, a decrease of 76% year-on-year [4][21]. Antimony Oxide - Antimony oxide production in April was 6,470 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 32%. Cumulative production from January to April was 27,345 tons, down 21% year-on-year [4][27]. - Exports in April were 957 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56 tons (+6.2%) but a year-on-year decrease of 63.5%. Cumulative exports from January to April totaled 4,405 tons, down 59% year-on-year [4][29]. Downstream Demand - The report notes weak demand for photovoltaic glass, with April production at 2.28 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. Cumulative production from January to April was 7.95 million tons, down 10.9% year-on-year [4][41]. - The production of flame retardants showed growth, with chemical fiber production in April at 7.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [4][32]. Supply and Prices - As of May 19, 2025, domestic antimony ingot prices were 225,000 yuan per ton, up 105,000 yuan (+88%) year-on-year, while international prices were $61,000 per ton, up $48,500 (+369%) year-on-year [4][48]. - The report indicates a tightening supply trend for antimony ore imports, contributing to the price increases observed [48][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, which are positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of gold and antimony resources, as well as Huayu Mining, which has increasing production capacity [5][57].