证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 26 年 月 日 小金属 锑：7 月供应大幅下滑，锑品出口收紧或接近尾声 价格：截至 8 月 22 日，据亚洲金属网，国内锑精矿价格 15.2 万元/吨， 较 8 月初持平，内盘锑锭价格 17.9 万元/吨，较 8 月初持平，外盘锑锭价 格 49.3 万元/吨（含税），较 8 月初跌 3%，内外盘价差 31 万元/吨。 进出口：7 月锑品出口延续低位，进口原料成本抬升。7 月锑精矿进口 2307 吨，同环比-63%/+26%，1-7 月锑精矿进口 2.02 万吨，同比-37%；7 月 进口均价为 3.54 万元/吨，环比+48%。7 月氧化锑出口 74 吨，上月为 87 吨，连续 3 个月维持百吨级出口，大幅低于上半年有限放开时千吨级出口 水平；未锻轧锑本月无出口。 消费转淡叠加成本压力，7 月锑品产量大幅下滑。供给端：7 月国内锑锭 产量 3729 吨，同环比-36%/-25%；1-7 月锑锭产量 4.03 万吨，同比-6%。 7 月国内焦锑酸钠产量 1915 吨，同环比-41%/-2%；1-7 月焦锑酸钠产量 1.35 万吨，同比-47 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the antimony industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - Antimony prices have stabilized and are expected to initiate a new round of increases, with domestic antimony ingot prices at 180,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices at 161,000 CNY/metal ton as of August 19 [1]. - Following the implementation of export controls in September 2024, antimony exports saw a significant decline, with only 4,650 tons of antimony oxide exported in the first half of 2025, representing just 27% of the same period last year [1][4]. - Antimony prices experienced a peak increase from 137,000 CNY/ton to 233,000 CNY/ton during the first quarter of 2025, but have since retreated due to a crackdown on strategic mineral smuggling [1]. - New trade support policies are anticipated to be introduced in early September, coinciding with the traditional peak season for demand, which may lead to a rebound in antimony prices [1][4]. Summary by Sections Export Trends - After a brief recovery, antimony exports plummeted following the implementation of export controls, with monthly average exports of antimony oxide at 1,195 tons from December to April, only 38% of the average for the first nine months of 2024 [4]. - The export volume of antimony oxide dropped significantly in May, with only 320 tons exported in total from May to July [4]. Industry Scale - The antimony industry comprises 235 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 496.67 billion CNY and a circulating market value of 461.06 billion CNY [8]. Import Trends - Antimony ore imports from January to July 2025 totaled 20,223 tons, a decrease of 36.9% year-on-year, indicating a tight domestic supply situation [13]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, Zhuhai Group, and Xingye Silver Antimony as potential investment opportunities [15].

Summary of Antimony Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The global antimony production has sharply decreased, with an estimated 100,000 tons of metal equivalent from mining raw materials in 2024, comparable to China's production a decade ago, primarily due to a lack of new large antimony mines and neglect of antimony production in associated ores, leading to rising antimony prices [2][3] - China remains the largest antimony smelting country globally, with smelting products exceeding 100,000 tons in 2024, relying on approximately 30% of raw materials imported from countries like Myanmar, Thailand, and Tajikistan [2][5] - Other countries such as Oman, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkey have antimony smelting plants, but they face challenges like insufficient raw materials or poor quality [2][6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global antimony supply-demand balance for 2024 is roughly stable, with total demand around 110,000 to 120,000 tons, where flame retardants account for about half of the consumption [2][7] - The lead-acid battery sector shows stable demand but faces uncertainty due to the rise of lithium batteries [2][8] - China's antimony consumption in 2024 is projected at approximately 72,000 tons, representing about 70% of global consumption, with 35% used in flame retardants and the remainder in lead alloys, polyester, and photovoltaic glass [12] Export Control Policies - Starting August 2024, China will implement export controls on antimony products to counteract U.S. and Western technology blockades, complicating the export approval process [4][13] - The approval process involves multiple departments, and the first batch of approvals is expected by the end of the month or early next month [14][19] Economic Impact and Challenges - Despite a significant drop in export volume (down 70-80% in the first half of 2025), the economic impact on domestic antimony companies is limited due to rising prices, with the export value decline being less than 50% [15] - The industry faces challenges such as smuggling and strengthened export controls, which have affected the export of antimony products [15] Recycling and Recovery - Antimony is one of the most challenging metals to recycle, with only about 20% of the annual demand of 120,000 tons being recoverable, primarily from lead-acid batteries [17][20] - The recycling rates in the U.S. are relatively advanced, but the overall recoverable amount remains low [18] Technological and Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies lead in smelting technology, achieving the best recovery rates, which gives them a competitive edge over other countries like Oman and Turkey, which lack advanced technology [24][25] - New innovative processing techniques are being developed, such as the acidic wet method by Hunan Gold Company, which can process over 10,000 tons of metal [26] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The photovoltaic glass industry currently demands about 10,000 tons of antimony, with stable procurement and ordering despite facing challenges [29] - The flame retardant market is experiencing pressure due to rising prices, leading to the emergence of substitutes, which could permanently affect demand if prices remain excessively high [30] Conclusion - The antimony industry is navigating a complex landscape of supply constraints, regulatory changes, and evolving market demands, with significant implications for pricing and production strategies moving forward.

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][58] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant decline in antimony production and imports, with June 2025 antimony ingot production at 4,989 tons, down 22% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [3][19] - The report suggests that domestic supply and demand are both weak, with major manufacturers maintaining prices while waiting for export recovery [5][51] Summary by Sections 1. Upstream Antimony Ore - In June 2025, antimony ore imports were 1,824 tons, a decrease of 22% month-on-month and 60% year-on-year [3][11] - The average import price for antimony ore in June was $2,960 per ton, down 64% month-on-month and 44% year-on-year [11] 2. Midstream Antimony Ingots - Antimony ingot production in June was 4,989 tons, a decrease of 22% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [19] - Cumulative exports for the first half of 2025 were 267 tons, down 84% year-on-year [21] 3. Midstream Antimony Oxide - Antimony oxide production in June was 5,315 tons, down 32% month-on-month and 38% year-on-year [26] - Cumulative exports for the first half of 2025 were 4,651 tons, down 73% year-on-year [28] 4. Downstream Demand - Chemical fiber production in June was 7.36 million tons, up 0.2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year [31] - The production of polyester products increased by 13% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [33] 5. Supply and Prices - As of July 31, 2025, the price of antimony ingots was 187,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 17% year-on-year [43] - The report notes a tightening supply trend for antimony in 2025, with a significant decrease in imports [43] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, which are expected to benefit from dual drivers in the antimony market [5][51]

Summary of Antimony and Tin Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The antimony price has historically fluctuated due to supply and demand factors, with significant price increases observed from 2008 to 2010 due to environmental policies and mine restructuring, and again from 2020 onwards driven by photovoltaic demand and global supply tightness [1][3] - Antimony prices surged by 89% from early 2024 to September, primarily due to the suspension of operations at Hunan Gold's Xinglong Mining, export disruptions from Russia, and a 25% increase in China's photovoltaic installations [1][4] - Tin resources are scarce, with a static reserve-to-production ratio of only 20 years, lower than copper and aluminum [1][7] - Global tin production has decreased significantly since 2011, with China being the main contributor to this decline [1][7] Key Points on Antimony - Antimony is primarily used in flame retardants (40%-50%) and photovoltaic glass (25%-30%) [1][7] - High-end industries such as 5G communication and electric vehicles are expected to drive demand for flame retardants [1][7] - The price of antimony is expected to rise in the short term due to the recovery of exports, with a near-zero export volume in May and June due to anti-smuggling efforts [2][5] - Antimony prices are projected to stabilize before the Spring Festival in 2025, with a significant increase from 140,000 to 240,000 yuan, a rise of 68% driven by photovoltaic demand and reduced imports [5] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Antimony prices reached a peak of 190,000 yuan due to high demand and supply constraints, but have since corrected due to reduced exports and domestic production cuts in photovoltaic glass [4][5] - The cost of antimony in photovoltaic components is relatively low, accounting for only 0.5% to 1% of the total cost, which limits the overall impact of price fluctuations on photovoltaic modules [9] Future Outlook for Antimony - Huaxi Company is expected to see a 160% increase in production over the next two years, benefiting from the injection of 5G technology and expansion of high-grade mines [11][12] - Hunan Gold's performance in the first half of 2025 was below expectations due to export controls, but a recovery in exports is anticipated to boost performance in the second half [13] Key Points on Tin - The tin industry faces significant supply challenges, with major producing countries being China (48%), Russia (16%), and Tajikistan (20%) [7] - The marginal grade of China's main tin mines has decreased from 1.0%-1.5% to 0.5%, indicating a decline in production capacity [7] - The demand for tin is primarily driven by flame retardants and photovoltaic glass, with high-end industries contributing to growth [7][8] Additional Insights - Antimony's applications in the semiconductor and military sectors present growth opportunities, particularly in fourth-generation semiconductors and military equipment [10] - The market for brominated flame retardants has shown resilience, with ongoing demand despite previous price pressures [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The antimony market is expected to stabilize and rise due to anticipated export recovery, similar to trends observed in rare earths and tungsten [1] - The global antimony production from 2014 to 2024 is projected to have nearly zero growth, with China dominating global production at 70% [1][5] - Antimony demand in China has seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% over the past five years, primarily driven by the photovoltaic (PV) industry [1][5] - Current visible antimony inventory is at a five-year low of 3,000-4,000 tons, with hidden inventory cleared last year, reducing future inventory pressure [1][5] Core Insights - The antimony sector is expected to benefit from a risk-on sentiment in the industrial metals market due to a liquidity easing environment [2] - Export recovery is anticipated to drive a reversal in marginal demand, with low-price optimism potentially reversing in the near term [2] - The long-term outlook for antimony remains bullish, supported by supply-demand dynamics, inventory levels, and funding factors [2][5] Marginal Demand Analysis - A marginal demand table has been constructed to predict price reversals based on PV glass export and import data [3] - The table successfully predicted price reversals in October 2024, March 2025, and May 2025, correlating with changes in export volumes and marginal demand [3][4] Long-term Bull Market Factors - Supply-side constraints are evident, with a compound growth rate of only 0.16% in global antimony mining from 2014 to 2024 [5] - The domestic TPU production in China has decreased by 17% year-on-year, with imports down 48% [5] - Demand from the PV sector is expected to remain resilient despite potential short-term declines, supported by price control policies [5] Recommended Companies - Companies to watch include Huaxi Nonferrous, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining, with a specific recommendation for Yuguang Gold Lead due to its low valuation and significant by-product recovery [6] - Yuguang Gold Lead has seen a doubling in small metal recovery revenue and a quadrupling in gross profit since 2019, with stable costs [6] - The company is currently valued at less than 8 times earnings, presenting a potential investment opportunity if the antimony sector fully activates [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - Antimony prices have stabilized after a significant decline, indicating a potential bottoming out [2][13] - The export policy is showing signs of marginal easing, which may lead to an upward convergence of domestic antimony prices [3][42] - The supply-demand fundamentals for the antimony industry are strong, with expectations for long-term high prices due to geopolitical factors and administrative controls [3][42] Summary by Sections Antimony Price Review - As of July 11, antimony concentrate prices were 151,500 CNY/ton, down 31% from the April peak, while antimony ingot prices were 178,500 CNY/ton, down 28% [1][10] - The price difference between domestic and international markets has widened to 330,000 CNY/ton due to export controls and supply-demand imbalances [1][10] Demand Analysis - The demand for flame retardants has shown resilience, with prices for flame retardant masterbatches increasing by 90% from January to April, followed by a modest decline of 11% from April to July [2][13] - The photovoltaic glass sector has seen a significant increase in installation volumes, but actual installations have remained flat compared to the previous year due to delays [21][23] Supply Dynamics - Antimony ore imports decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, with a significant price increase of 39% month-on-month in May [31] - Domestic production of antimony ingots and sodium antimonate has declined sharply, with a 25% year-on-year drop in June production [31][32] Investment Recommendations - Companies with quality resources in the antimony sector are expected to benefit from the industry's upward trend. Recommended companies include Huayu Mining, Hunan Gold, and Huaxi Nonferrous [4][42]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing "transshipment game" that the U.S. is playing to circumvent China's export controls on rare earth elements, particularly gallium, germanium, and antimony, which are critical for military applications like the F-35 fighter jet [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Dependence on Rare Earths - The U.S. military heavily relies on rare earth materials, with 83.7% of its supply coming from China, particularly for advanced weaponry like the F-35 [1][2]. - Following China's export controls announced in July 2023, the U.S. faced a potential shortage of these critical materials, prompting the Pentagon to initiate stockpiling measures [2]. Group 2: Transshipment Channels - The U.S. has turned to Thailand and Mexico as primary channels for importing antimony oxide, with imports from these countries reaching 3,834 tons from December 2023 to April 2024, surpassing the total from the previous three years [1][2]. - U.S. companies are utilizing "small batch, multiple shipments" methods to mix rare earths with other goods, effectively bypassing Chinese export controls [2]. Group 3: Price Dynamics and Smuggling - The price of gallium has doubled since the implementation of China's export controls, creating a lucrative market for smugglers [3]. - Chinese companies have demonstrated creativity in circumventing regulations, with reports of approximately 200 kilograms of gallium being smuggled monthly disguised as other metals [3]. Group 4: China's Response - In response to the outflow of rare earth resources, China has initiated a crackdown on smuggling activities and introduced a new export licensing system requiring detailed transaction records [3]. - China is also considering countermeasures against third-party countries involved in transshipment, potentially mirroring U.S. practices in Southeast Asia [3]. Group 5: Long-term Implications - Despite the short-term relief provided by transshipment methods, the U.S. remains vulnerable to supply chain disruptions if China tightens its export controls further [5]. - China's dominance in rare earth refining technology, holding over 90% of the global market share and having production costs significantly lower than U.S. firms, poses a long-term challenge for U.S. military supply chains [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in the import of antimony oxide by the United States through Thailand and Mexico, totaling over 3,800 tons, following China's export restrictions on critical minerals [1][3][4]. Group 1: Supply Chain Dynamics - China is a dominant player in the global rare earth market, controlling a large portion of antimony, gallium, and germanium production and exports, which are crucial for military, electronics, and semiconductor applications [3][7]. - Following China's export ban on these critical minerals in December 2024, U.S. companies quickly sought alternative routes through Thailand and Mexico to maintain their supply chains [3][7]. - The import volume of antimony oxide from Thailand and Mexico between December 2024 and April 2025 exceeded the total imports from 2022 to 2024, indicating a significant shift in sourcing strategies [4][9]. Group 2: Regulatory Responses - The U.S. companies have historically used third countries to circumvent export controls, as exemplified by Gallant Metals, which imports gallium from China via Southeast Asia [6][9]. - The rapid response from China to close the loophole in export controls involved a coordinated effort among various government departments to combat smuggling of gallium, germanium, and antimony [9][11]. - Following the exposure of these practices, U.S. imports of antimony oxide began to decline sharply from April 2025, leading to increased costs and supply chain instability for U.S. companies [13][14]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The reliance of the U.S. on imported antimony, with over 80% dependency, underscores the strategic importance of these minerals in defense and industrial applications [7][14]. - The emergence of Thailand and Mexico as new suppliers, despite their limited production capabilities, raises questions about the sustainability of this supply chain [4][7]. - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China in the rare earth sector is expected to have profound implications for global supply chains, emphasizing the strategic nature of these resources [14].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition between China and the United States over critical minerals such as gallium, germanium, and antimony is a complex battle involving legal, technological, diplomatic, and intelligence dimensions, with both sides intensifying their efforts and refusing to yield [1]. Group 1: Background of the Conflict - The conflict began in late 2023 when China tightened its export controls on key minerals, disrupting the U.S. industrial supply chain, which heavily relies on Chinese refining capabilities for over 90% of gallium and germanium and nearly all antimony [2]. - This move by China aimed to leverage its resource advantage to pressure the U.S. into concessions in other areas [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the supply cut, prices for the relevant minerals surged by two to three times, prompting the U.S. market to seek alternative sources [4]. - Thailand and Mexico emerged as significant import sources for the U.S., with their antimony exports increasing dramatically, surpassing the total from the previous three years, despite these countries having minimal domestic production [4]. Group 3: Gray Market Dynamics - A gray supply chain quickly formed, involving multinational "movers" who procure minerals from China and disguise them as ordinary minerals, fertilizers, or artworks to reroute them through third countries like Thailand and Mexico before reaching the U.S. [6]. - The transfer fees for each ton of minerals can reach up to $50,000, attracting many to take risks in this lucrative market [6]. - In the first half of 2025, a company in Guangxi reportedly shipped 3,300 tons of antimony products to the U.S. through its subsidiary in Thailand [6]. Group 4: Regulatory Responses - In response to the rampant gray trade, China has initiated investigations and enhanced regulatory measures, including the introduction of a new Mineral Resources Law and deploying AI and penetration detection systems at ports [8]. - Despite these efforts, the gray market continues to adapt, making it challenging for regulators to completely eliminate these channels [8]. Group 5: U.S. Countermeasures - The U.S. is actively addressing the situation by utilizing gray channels to acquire critical minerals while simultaneously implementing measures to mitigate risks [10]. - In May 2025, the U.S. and Vietnam agreed to impose a 40% tax on goods transiting through third countries to combat "origin laundering" practices [10]. - The U.S., Japan, India, and Australia have launched the "Quad Critical Minerals Initiative" to establish an independent supply chain and reduce reliance on China, although this initiative faces significant challenges [10]. Group 6: Conclusion of the Conflict - The essence of this mineral competition is a struggle over interests and demands, with each ton of minerals representing the outcome of multifaceted negotiations [12]. - While China holds the upper hand with its export controls, the challenge of closing gray market loopholes remains significant; conversely, the U.S. is striving to fill its supply gaps, but establishing new supply chains is not straightforward [12]. - The ultimate goal for both sides is supply chain security, with the gray market acting as a natural buffer in this ongoing conflict, which shows no signs of resolution and remains fraught with uncertainty [12].