小金属：国内市场延续弱势运行，锑锭价格下调。本周2#高铋锑锭市场价格为16.75万 元/吨，2#低铋锑锭市场价格为16.95万元/吨，1#锑锭市场价格为17.05万元/吨，0#锑锭市场 价格为17.35万元/吨，均价较上周同期下调0.3万元/吨；本周氧化锑价格下调，99.5%三氧化 二锑市场价格14.15万元/吨，均价较上周同期价格下调0.3万元/吨；99.8%三氧化二锑市场价 格15万元/吨，均价较上周同期价格下调0.25万元/吨；本周锑市场仍呈弱势运行，供需端， 原料矿低价现货难买，且报价调价谨慎，矿商挺价意愿强烈，价格阴跌下，卖货商采买也同 样谨慎，原料成本就锑价支撑强劲；冶炼厂目前虽保持开工状态但整体出货量不大，绝大多 数冶炼厂保留有一条生产线开工；需求端则继无利好提振，普遍反馈询单一般，下游选择面 较多，采购氧化锑99.5%情况好于氧化锑99.8%；本周成交情绪保持疲软状态，询单在国庆 假期前夕未见明显好转，各家均为维护老客户订单为主；此节点下，各家库存所剩不多，买 方市场下对市场看涨积极性不高。建议关注：湖南黄金，华锡有色，华钰矿业，豫光金铅。 稀土永磁：价格震荡，基本面改善方向不改。具体价格方面 ...

Group 1: Base Metals - Copper prices have decreased, with Shanghai copper closing at 80,080 yuan/ton, influenced by the conclusion of central bank meetings and a gradual recovery in downstream orders as the peak season progresses [1] - The supply side shows notable contradictions, with domestic smelters undergoing maintenance but not significantly impacting supply due to imports; however, increased downstream orders are expected to boost refined copper consumption [1] - Aluminum prices have also seen a phase adjustment, with Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,760 yuan/ton; the overall theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decrease, leading to increased theoretical profits for the industry [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have risen following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with domestic gold averaging 829.33 yuan/gram and silver at 9,964 yuan/kilogram, reflecting market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [2] - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations in COMEX gold and silver prices, with gold trading between 3,650-3,700 USD/oz and silver between 41.5-42.0 USD/oz [2] - Suggested companies for investment include China National Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [2] Group 3: Minor Metals - The domestic market for antimony continues to operate weakly, with prices for various grades of antimony ingots and oxides decreasing by 0.4 million yuan/ton compared to the previous week [3] - There is a cautious attitude among major manufacturers regarding price adjustments, and the market is characterized by a weak supply-demand balance, leading to a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment [3] - Short-term price stability is expected for antimony ingots, with a forecasted range of 172,000-175,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - Prices for rare earths have shown slight increases, with light rare earth oxide prices decreasing by 0.7% to 571,000 yuan/ton, while heavy rare earth oxides remain stable [4] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, with processing fees rising above 20,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential upward trend in the sector [4] - Companies to watch include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Guangxi Rare Earth [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the strategic importance of rare earth elements (REEs) in various high-tech applications, with China controlling over 90% of global refining capacity and Taiwan heavily reliant on imports from China [2][4] - In 2024, Taiwan imported 6,096 tons of rare earths from China, accounting for 96% of its total imports, but nearly 4,000 tons were rerouted to the U.S. through various channels [2][4] - The Chinese government has implemented export controls on key rare earth materials, directly impacting Taiwan's military and semiconductor industries, as eight Taiwanese companies were named in the export control list [4][7] Group 2 - The article details how rare earth materials, such as antimony oxide, were imported by Taiwan from China, relabeled in third-party countries like Thailand or Mexico, and then sold to the U.S. military production lines [5][7] - Taiwan's military and semiconductor sectors are particularly vulnerable, with companies like Hanxiang Aerospace and the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology relying on rare earths for critical components [9][11] - The semiconductor industry, especially TSMC's 3nm production line, is at risk, as 90% of its rare earth needs come from China, potentially leading to a significant drop in chip yield rates [11][13] Group 3 - The article discusses Taiwan's attempts to seek alternative sources for rare earths from countries like Myanmar and Australia, but these efforts face challenges due to geopolitical instability and lower production capacities [11][13] - The U.S. is also struggling to secure rare earth supplies, leading to increased costs and reliance on recycled materials, further complicating the supply chain for Taiwan [13] - The long-term implications for Taiwan's economy and military autonomy are significant, as the current situation exposes vulnerabilities in its supply chain and reliance on imports [13]

Summary of the Antimony Sector Update and Company Insights Industry Overview - The antimony export demand in China is recovering, with private enterprises accelerating export order approvals, while state-owned enterprises are lagging due to responsibility tracing systems. Overall export volume is currently below the pre-October 2024 level of approximately 3,000 tons per month, but there is considerable room for recovery [1][2] - The photovoltaic (PV) sector shows early signs of demand recovery, with daily melting volume of PV glass rebounding from a mid-2024 peak of 117,000 tons per day to nearly 90,000 tons per day, indicating positive inventory depletion and rising panel prices [1][2] Supply Dynamics - Global antimony supply is significantly contracting, with overseas production from Polar Gold expected to be zero in the first half of 2025 due to mining area transitions, affecting 10% of global supply. Domestically, China's antimony production has decreased by 20%, impacting 14% of global supply [1][4] - Overall, global antimony supply is projected to decrease by nearly 25% in 2025 due to reduced overseas mining and increased environmental inspections in China, with limited new supply expected from regions like Xinjiang, Australia, and the U.S. until around 2027 [1][4] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies for investment include Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, Xiyou Color, and Yuguang Gold Lead. Yuguang Gold Lead is highlighted for its low valuation and strong expected performance, with a profit structure comprising 60% precious metals, 20% minor metals, and 20% base metals [1][5][6] - Yuguang Gold Lead's business model involves sourcing lead and copper concentrates globally, producing lead ingots and cathode copper, and generating significant revenue from by-products like gold, silver, and antimony oxide [5][6] Profitability Insights - In the lead-zinc mining business, the pricing of gold and silver typically incurs a discount, allowing for a 10% margin through the purchase of lead-zinc mines containing these metals. The unit gross profit increases with rising gold and silver prices [3][7] - The minor metals recycling business benefits from low-grade raw materials, leading to revenue growth that outpaces cost increases, thus driving profit margins upward [8] Valuation and Market Position - Yuguang Gold Lead is viewed as a small metal mining company with stable smelting costs. Its profit structure spans precious, minor, and base metals, providing a comprehensive coverage of the non-ferrous industry chain. The company’s products are currently in a price-upward cycle, ensuring strong performance growth [9][10] - The company’s projected profits for the first half of 2025 are estimated at 500 million yuan, with a potential market capitalization of 18 billion yuan if a 15x valuation is applied to a full-year profit of 1.2 billion yuan [10]

Group 1 - Hunan Gold's stock price decreased by 2.03% on September 16, trading at 22.16 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 34.628 billion yuan [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 85.86%, but a decline of 4.61% over the last five trading days [1] - Hunan Gold's main business revenue composition includes 94.68% from gold, 2.09% from antimony oxide, and 1.53% from refined antimony [2] Group 2 - For the first half of 2025, Hunan Gold reported operating revenue of 28.436 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.89%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 656 million yuan, up 49.66% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 1.228 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 553 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, Hunan Gold had 103,100 shareholders, an increase of 36.93% from the previous period [2]

Group 1 - Hunan Gold's stock price dropped by 5.25% to 20.93 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.259 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.76%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 32.706 billion CNY [1] - Hunan Gold Co., Ltd. was established on December 26, 2000, and listed on August 16, 2007. The company primarily engages in the mining and processing of gold, antimony, tungsten, and other non-ferrous metals, with gold accounting for 94.68% of its main business revenue [1] - The revenue composition of Hunan Gold includes: gold 94.68%, antimony oxide 2.09%, refined antimony 1.53%, antimony content 0.63%, others 0.43%, ethylene glycol antimony 0.42%, and tungsten products 0.24% [1] Group 2 - The fund "Zhongtai CSI 500 Index Enhanced A" (008112) holds Hunan Gold as its eighth largest position, with 25,600 shares, representing 0.77% of the fund's net value, resulting in an estimated floating loss of approximately 29,700 CNY [2] - The fund was established on December 11, 2019, with a latest scale of 18.9286 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 18.5%, ranking 2318 out of 4222 in its category, while the one-year return is 43.03%, ranking 2046 out of 3789 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The antimony industry is facing supply pressure due to declining demand and rising import costs, leading to a significant drop in domestic production in July. The long-term outlook remains positive for antimony prices due to strong fundamentals and geopolitical factors [1][4][6]. Supply Side - Domestic antimony ingot production in July was 3,729 tons, a decrease of 36% year-on-year and 25% month-on-month. From January to July, production totaled 40,300 tons, down 6% year-on-year [4]. - The supply forecast for antimony from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 112,000 tons, 119,000 tons, and 127,000 tons respectively, with a relatively rigid supply-demand gap [5]. Demand Side - Antimony demand is expected to decline in 2025 due to reduced production in photovoltaic glass and inventory adjustments. However, traditional demand from flame retardants and lead-acid batteries is anticipated to remain stable [5]. - July saw domestic photovoltaic glass production drop to 2.09 million tons, a 21% decrease month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [4]. Price Trends - As of August 22, domestic antimony concentrate prices remained stable at 152,000 yuan/ton, while antimony ingot prices were 179,000 yuan/ton. The external market price was 493,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3% decrease from early August [2]. - The company expects that the tightening of antimony exports may be nearing its end, and a return to normal purchasing patterns in photovoltaic glass could enhance price elasticity [6]. Import and Export Dynamics - In July, antimony concentrate imports were 2,307 tons, a 63% decrease year-on-year but a 26% increase month-on-month. The average import price was 35,400 yuan/ton, up 48% month-on-month [3]. - Antimony oxide exports were 74 tons in July, continuing a low trend, significantly below the levels seen earlier in the year [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply of antimony is expected to continue declining due to reduced production from major mines, while demand from photovoltaic glass is projected to decrease in 2025. However, traditional demand from flame retardants and lead-acid batteries is expected to remain stable [3][37] - The report suggests that the recent tightening of antimony exports may be nearing its end, and a return to normal purchasing patterns in the photovoltaic sector could enhance price elasticity [3][41] - The long-term outlook for antimony prices is positive, driven by strong supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors that may amplify supply-demand imbalances [3][41] Supply and Demand Summary - In July, domestic antimony ingot production was 3,729 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36% and a month-on-month decrease of 25%. For the first seven months of the year, production totaled 40,300 tons, down 6% year-on-year [2][23] - The report updates the supply-demand balance for 2025-2027, forecasting supply to be 11.2, 11.9, and 12.7 million tons, while demand is expected to be 13.1, 13.9, and 14.8 million tons, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [3][39] - The report highlights that July antimony ore imports were 2,307 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37%, while the average import price rose by 48% month-on-month to 35,400 yuan per ton [12][23] Price Outlook - As of August 22, domestic antimony concentrate prices remained stable at 152,000 yuan per ton, while external prices decreased by 3% to 493,000 yuan per ton. The price gap between domestic and external markets is 310,000 yuan per ton [10][12] - The report anticipates that the antimony industry will experience a high price run in the medium to long term due to its strategic metal attributes and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3][41] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on mining companies with quality resources that are likely to benefit from the upward trend in the antimony industry, specifically mentioning Huayu Mining and Huaxi Nonferrous [4][41]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the illegal smuggling of 3,834 tons of antimony oxide to the United States, highlighting the complexities of international trade and the effectiveness of China's export controls on strategic minerals [1][3]. Group 1: Smuggling Incident - 3,834 tons of antimony oxide, not rare earth elements, were secretly transported to the U.S. from Thailand and Mexico, which were previously not major buyers of antimony [3]. - U.S. companies reported illegal smuggling activities, leading to the interception of 300 tons of disguised rare earths, valued at over $80 million, resulting in a significant stock price increase for the reporting company [3][5]. Group 2: U.S. Response and Regulations - The U.S. is accused of double standards, imposing sanctions while simultaneously engaging in smuggling activities [5]. - In response to the smuggling, China has strengthened its laws, increasing penalties for small-scale rare earth smuggling to a maximum of 10 years and severe penalties for larger cases [5][7]. Group 3: China's Export Control Measures - Since 1998, China has implemented strict export controls on rare earths, including quotas and export tax adjustments, making it difficult for other countries to bypass regulations [7]. - China holds 23% of global rare earth reserves but dominates over 90% of the market share, creating a significant competitive advantage [7].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from Huafu Securities indicates that antimony export expectations are strengthening, and the industry is approaching the traditional peak season of September and October [1] - Short-term, with the increase in export expectations, antimony prices are likely to rebound from the bottom [1] Group 2: Antimony Ore - In July 2025, China imported 2,307 tons of antimony ore, a month-on-month increase of 483 tons (+27%) but a year-on-year decrease of 3,885 tons (-63%); from January to July, imports totaled 20,223 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11,834 tons (-37%) [1] - In July, China imported 0 tons from Tajikistan (down 76 tons), 428 tons from Russia (up 428), 365 tons from Peru (down 397), and other countries with varying import volumes [1] - From January to July, companies registered in Shandong imported 8,180 tons of other precious metal ores from Russia, a month-on-month increase of 21% but a year-on-year decrease of 21%; total imports for the same period reached 67,732 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15,168 tons (+29%) [1] Group 3: Antimony Ingots - In July, the production of antimony ingots was 3,767 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 35%; from January to July, cumulative production was 40,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6% (-2,387 tons) [2] - In July, China exported 0 tons of antimony ingots, with cumulative exports from January to July totaling 267 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 86% [2] Group 4: Antimony Oxide - In July, the production of antimony oxide was 4,780 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 40%; cumulative production from January to July was 45,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25% [3] - In July, exports totaled 74 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13 tons (-15%) and a year-on-year decrease of 2,725 tons (-97%); cumulative exports from January to July were 4,725 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15,369 tons (-77%) [3] Group 5: Downstream Demand - In July, the production of sodium antimonate was 2,738 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 16%; cumulative production from January to July was 15,806 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38% [4] - In July, photovoltaic glass production was 2.17 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11% but a year-on-year decrease of 17%; cumulative production from January to July was 15.01 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10% [4] - In July, chemical fiber production was 7.34 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% but a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; cumulative production from January to July was 49.98 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5% [4] - In July, ABS resin production was 560,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.3% and a year-on-year increase of 19%; cumulative production from January to July was 3.78 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26% [4] - In July, the total production of PET (including polyester chips, flat sheets, short fibers, and long fibers) was 6.34 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 17%; cumulative production from January to July was 42.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14% [4] Group 6: Supply, Demand, and Prices - As of August 20, 2025, the price of antimony ingots in China was 182,500 yuan per ton, down 24% from the year's peak; overseas antimony prices ranged from 55,000 to 58,000 USD per ton, with expectations of further price declines due to continuous capacity release abroad and rising domestic export expectations [5] - The report suggests that with the strengthening of export expectations, prices may rebound from the bottom in the short term [5]