（2025 年）5 月至 9 月，中国氧化锑的出口量仅为正常月均水平的 2%-7%， 处于非常低的水平。随着对美及非美国家出口限制解除，中国整体锑出口量预 计将显著增长，从而推动国内外锑价上涨。 解除对美出口限制有望拉动中国锑出口增长，海外锑价溢价较高，进口 紧张局面预计延续。内盘锑价预计继续上涨，外盘锑价可能回落，两者 价差将逐步收敛。 华锡有色具备投资潜力，公司有扩建计划并处于上行周期，将受益于价 格提升逻辑。高峰矿和铜坑矿正在扩建，未来产能有望显著提升，公司 具备较大的发展空间和投资潜力。 锑行业观点更新 20251113 摘要 中国解除对美锑出口限制，预计将显著提升锑出口量，尤其对美出口， 从而推动国内外锑价上涨。此前 5-9 月氧化锑出口量极低，政策放开有 望扭转这一局面。 全球锑资源稀缺性凸显，静态出采比仅为 20 年，低于铜和锂。全球锡 矿产量自 2011 年以来显著下降，中国锡矿产量降幅尤为明显，主要受 矿石品位下滑和富矿消耗影响。 俄罗斯吉金黄金公司锡矿产量大幅下滑，预计未来两年产量维持低位。 国内增量主要来自高峰矿和铜坑矿扩建，但需等到 2027-2028 年才能 释放；国外增量主要来自华 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Antimony Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the antimony industry, particularly the impact of export control policies in China and their implications for market dynamics and pricing [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Export Control Policies**: China's antimony export control policies have fluctuated, with a significant drop in export volumes following the implementation of controls in September 2024. Exports fell from over 3,000 tons per month to nearly zero, but have since shown signs of recovery [3][4]. - **Market Confidence**: The recent easing of export restrictions by the Ministry of Commerce is expected to enhance market confidence significantly. This adjustment allows for a more normalized review and approval process for exports, particularly to the U.S. [2][6]. - **Import Trends**: As of September 2025, antimony imports have decreased by 40% year-on-year. Despite domestic prices being over 150% lower than international prices, imports have not ceased, indicating limited overseas inventory pressure [5][6]. - **Production and Demand**: Prior to the export controls, China's annual production of antimony was approximately 80,000 to 90,000 tons, with 40% allocated for export, primarily in the form of antimony oxide for the flame retardant sector, especially in photovoltaic glass production [7][8]. - **Photovoltaic Glass Demand**: In 2023, the global photovoltaic glass sector consumed about 30,000 tons of antimony, with China being the largest consumer. Although demand decreased post-control, production has stabilized, suggesting that a recovery in demand could lead to a 20% increase if conditions improve [8][9]. - **Price Projections**: Current domestic antimony prices are around 150,000 RMB per ton, while international prices range from 4,500 to 4,600 USD per ton. If export levels return to 80%-90% of previous figures, a demand increase of 30%-40% is anticipated, which would significantly boost prices [9][10]. - **Future Market Expectations**: The expectation is that as export restrictions ease, there will be a substantial increase in demand, leading to a corresponding rise in both domestic and international prices. The potential for price recovery is strong, with projections suggesting domestic prices could reach 250,000 RMB or even exceed 300,000 RMB under optimistic scenarios [10][11]. - **Valuation and Growth Potential**: The T sector is viewed as having significant growth potential, with estimates suggesting that companies like Huaxi Nonferrous and Hunan Huayu Mining could see substantial increases in their valuations, with growth rates potentially exceeding 50% to 100% [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Resilience**: The antimony market is expected to experience only positive developments moving forward, with no anticipated negative news. This outlook is supported by the expected improvements in fundamentals, earnings per share (EPS), and overall valuations in the T sector [13]. - **Investment Recommendations**: There is a strong recommendation to focus on the T sector, given the anticipated improvements in market conditions and the potential for significant price increases and valuation enhancements [13].

Group 1 - Hunan Gold's stock increased by 6.8%, reaching 21.68 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 879 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.57%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 33.878 billion CNY [1] - Hunan Gold Co., Ltd. was established on December 26, 2000, and listed on August 16, 2007. The company primarily engages in the mining and processing of gold, antimony, tungsten, and other non-ferrous metals, with gold accounting for 94.68% of its main business revenue [1] - The revenue composition of Hunan Gold includes: gold 94.68%, antimony oxide 2.09%, refined antimony 1.53%, antimony content 0.63%, others 0.43%, ethylene glycol antimony 0.42%, and tungsten products 0.24% [1] Group 2 - One fund under Dongfang Fund holds Hunan Gold as a top ten heavy stock, with the Dongfang Xingrui Trend Leading Mixed A Fund (015381) holding 205,400 shares, representing 3.69% of the fund's net value, and achieving a floating profit of approximately 283,500 CNY [2] - The Dongfang Xingrui Trend Leading Mixed A Fund (015381) was established on August 16, 2022, with a latest scale of 38.9685 million CNY. It has achieved a year-to-date return of 70.62%, ranking 367 out of 8,154 in its category [2] - The fund has a one-year return of 70.26%, ranking 388 out of 8,046, and a cumulative return since inception of 43.03% [2]

Group 1 - Hunan Gold's stock price dropped by 6.52% to 20.08 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 263 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.84%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 31.378 billion CNY [1] - Hunan Gold Co., Ltd. was established on December 26, 2000, and listed on August 16, 2007. The company primarily engages in the mining and processing of gold, antimony, tungsten, and other non-ferrous metals, with gold accounting for 94.68% of its main business revenue [1] - The revenue composition includes: gold 94.68%, antimony oxide 2.09%, refined antimony 1.53%, contained antimony 0.63%, others 0.43%, ethylene glycol antimony 0.42%, and tungsten products 0.24% [1] Group 2 - Nord Fund has one fund heavily invested in Hunan Gold, with Nord Tianfu (005295) holding 284,700 shares, representing 4.82% of the fund's net value, making it the sixth-largest holding [2] - The estimated floating loss for Nord Tianfu today is approximately 398,600 CNY [2] - Nord Tianfu was established on February 7, 2018, with a current size of 105 million CNY, yielding 3.23% year-to-date and ranking 7234 out of 8160 in its category [2]

Core Viewpoint - USAC has proposed a non-binding all-stock acquisition of Larvotto, offering 6 shares of USAC for every 100 shares of Larvotto, which represents a significant premium for Larvotto shareholders [1][3][4]. Group 1: Acquisition Proposal - The acquisition aims to create one of the largest antimony producers outside of China, reflecting USAC's commitment to building a world-class enterprise in critical minerals [3][6]. - The proposed exchange ratio offers a notable premium compared to Larvotto's recent financing price and trading range [4][6]. - The transaction will follow the Australian Corporations Act 2001 and requires formal agreements, shareholder approval, regulatory approval, and customary closing conditions [4][5]. Group 2: Strategic Positioning - The merger with Larvotto is seen as a strategic move to enhance USAC's position in the critical minerals sector, particularly in antimony, which is increasingly important in global supply chains [3][6]. - USAC's CEO emphasized the opportunity for Larvotto shareholders to participate in a larger, more diversified group with financial strength and global influence [6]. Group 3: Business Operations - USAC operates processing facilities in Montana and Mexico, producing antimony oxide, metallic antimony, and other critical minerals [7]. - The company also recovers precious metals, primarily gold and silver, from third-party ores at its facilities [7]. - USAC is expanding its operations by acquiring mineral rights and leases in Montana, Alaska, and Ontario during 2024 and 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - USAC has submitted a non-binding acquisition proposal to acquire 100% of Larvotto Resources Limited through an all-stock transaction, aiming to create one of the largest antimony producers outside of China [1] Transaction Structure - The acquisition proposal involves a share exchange ratio where Larvotto shareholders will receive 6 shares of USAC for every 100 shares of Larvotto [3] - This exchange ratio represents a significant premium compared to Larvotto's recent financing price announced on July 25, 2025, and its recent trading price range [3] Regulatory and Approval Process - The transaction will be conducted under the Australian Corporations Act 2001 and requires several conditions to be met, including the signing of a binding implementation agreement, approval from Larvotto shareholders, regulatory approvals, and customary closing conditions [4] - USAC has already acquired approximately 10% of Larvotto's issued capital in the open market, making it the largest single shareholder [4] Strategic Positioning - The merger with Larvotto is positioned to create one of the largest antimony producers globally outside of China, reflecting USAC's commitment to becoming a world-class player in critical minerals [5] - The CEO of USAC emphasized that this merger presents a compelling opportunity for Larvotto shareholders to participate in a larger, more diversified group with financial strength and global influence [5] Business Diversification - USAC operates in the critical minerals sector, producing antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and zeolite, with processing facilities in Montana and Mexico [6] - The company processes third-party ores into various products, including antimony oxide, metallic antimony, and precious metals, which are used in a wide range of applications such as flame retardants and military materials [6] - USAC is also expanding its operations by acquiring mineral rights and leases in Montana, Alaska, and Ontario during 2024 and 2025 [6]

Group 1 - Hunan Gold's stock price decreased by 5.16%, trading at 21.68 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 33.878 billion CNY as of the report date [1] - The company was established on December 26, 2000, and listed on August 16, 2007, primarily engaged in the mining and processing of gold, antimony, tungsten, and other non-ferrous metals [1] - The main revenue composition of Hunan Gold includes 94.68% from gold, 2.09% from antimony oxide, 1.53% from refined antimony, 0.63% from contained antimony, and smaller percentages from other products [1] Group 2 - The fund "Zhongtai CSI 500 Index Enhanced A" holds 25,600 shares of Hunan Gold, representing 0.77% of the fund's net value, ranking as the eighth largest holding [2] - The fund has a total scale of 18.9286 million CNY and has achieved a year-to-date return of 19.13% [2] - The fund manager, Zou Wei, has been in position for 5 years and 316 days, with the best fund return during this period being 64.83% [3]

Group 1: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown an upward trend, with domestic copper closing at 81,890 CNY/ton, and the main contract price reaching 82,980 CNY/ton, marking an increase of over 3% [1][2] - The significant price surge on September 24 was triggered by Freeport's update on Grasberg, leading to a broad increase in LME metal futures [1][2] - Despite the bullish market sentiment, the actual demand remains sluggish, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach after the price spike [2] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices have experienced a decline, with domestic aluminum closing at 20,660 CNY/ton [2] - The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has increased due to capacity transfers and resumed operations in various regions [2] - The average price of domestic alumina has decreased to 3,014.75 CNY/ton, down 40.02 CNY/ton from the previous week, indicating a 1.31% drop [2] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have risen, with domestic gold averaging 837.58 CNY/gram, up 1.00% from the previous week, and silver averaging 10,173 CNY/kg, up 2.09% [3] - The market anticipates a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, contributing to the rise in precious metal prices [3] - COMEX silver inventory has increased by 0.35% to 52,715.51 million ounces, while Shanghai Futures Exchange silver delivery inventory has decreased by 4.88% [3] Group 4: Minor Metals - The antimony market continues to show weakness, with prices for various grades of antimony ingots decreasing by 0.3 CNY/ton compared to the previous week [4] - Demand remains lackluster, with downstream inquiries reported as generally weak, and suppliers maintaining cautious pricing strategies [4] - The overall sentiment in the market is subdued, with limited purchasing activity observed ahead of the National Day holiday [4] Group 5: Rare Earths - Prices for rare earths have shown fluctuations, with light rare earth oxide prices decreasing by 1.5% to 562,500 CNY/ton [5] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, and processing fees have risen above 20,000 CNY, indicating a potential long-term opportunity in the sector [5] - Companies in the magnetic materials sector, such as Ningbo Yunsheng and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, are recommended for attention due to their strong fundamentals [5]

Group 1: Base Metals - Copper prices have decreased, with Shanghai copper closing at 80,080 yuan/ton, influenced by the conclusion of central bank meetings and a gradual recovery in downstream orders as the peak season progresses [1] - The supply side shows notable contradictions, with domestic smelters undergoing maintenance but not significantly impacting supply due to imports; however, increased downstream orders are expected to boost refined copper consumption [1] - Aluminum prices have also seen a phase adjustment, with Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,760 yuan/ton; the overall theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decrease, leading to increased theoretical profits for the industry [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have risen following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with domestic gold averaging 829.33 yuan/gram and silver at 9,964 yuan/kilogram, reflecting market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [2] - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations in COMEX gold and silver prices, with gold trading between 3,650-3,700 USD/oz and silver between 41.5-42.0 USD/oz [2] - Suggested companies for investment include China National Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [2] Group 3: Minor Metals - The domestic market for antimony continues to operate weakly, with prices for various grades of antimony ingots and oxides decreasing by 0.4 million yuan/ton compared to the previous week [3] - There is a cautious attitude among major manufacturers regarding price adjustments, and the market is characterized by a weak supply-demand balance, leading to a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment [3] - Short-term price stability is expected for antimony ingots, with a forecasted range of 172,000-175,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - Prices for rare earths have shown slight increases, with light rare earth oxide prices decreasing by 0.7% to 571,000 yuan/ton, while heavy rare earth oxides remain stable [4] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, with processing fees rising above 20,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential upward trend in the sector [4] - Companies to watch include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Guangxi Rare Earth [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the strategic importance of rare earth elements (REEs) in various high-tech applications, with China controlling over 90% of global refining capacity and Taiwan heavily reliant on imports from China [2][4] - In 2024, Taiwan imported 6,096 tons of rare earths from China, accounting for 96% of its total imports, but nearly 4,000 tons were rerouted to the U.S. through various channels [2][4] - The Chinese government has implemented export controls on key rare earth materials, directly impacting Taiwan's military and semiconductor industries, as eight Taiwanese companies were named in the export control list [4][7] Group 2 - The article details how rare earth materials, such as antimony oxide, were imported by Taiwan from China, relabeled in third-party countries like Thailand or Mexico, and then sold to the U.S. military production lines [5][7] - Taiwan's military and semiconductor sectors are particularly vulnerable, with companies like Hanxiang Aerospace and the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology relying on rare earths for critical components [9][11] - The semiconductor industry, especially TSMC's 3nm production line, is at risk, as 90% of its rare earth needs come from China, potentially leading to a significant drop in chip yield rates [11][13] Group 3 - The article discusses Taiwan's attempts to seek alternative sources for rare earths from countries like Myanmar and Australia, but these efforts face challenges due to geopolitical instability and lower production capacities [11][13] - The U.S. is also struggling to secure rare earth supplies, leading to increased costs and reliance on recycled materials, further complicating the supply chain for Taiwan [13] - The long-term implications for Taiwan's economy and military autonomy are significant, as the current situation exposes vulnerabilities in its supply chain and reliance on imports [13]