Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the tungsten price reached a historical high before a slight adjustment, while the rare earth market is experiencing a phase of weak supply and demand [4][7] - The report suggests monitoring specific companies such as Guangsheng Nonferrous, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and others for potential investment opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Rare Earth - Recent price changes include a drop of 11.21% for praseodymium and neodymium oxide to 712,500 CNY/ton, and a decrease of 4.47% for dysprosium oxide to 1,390,000 CNY/ton [7][12] - Supply remains tight due to policy and supply-side constraints, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies is weakening [7] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices decreased by 0.90% to 4,395 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices fell by 1.06% to 279,500 CNY/ton [18] - The market is currently in a phase of price stabilization and observation due to low inventory levels at smelters and reduced output from mines [7] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices fell by 4.30% to 1,001,000 CNY/ton, while ammonium paratungstate prices decreased by 1.98% to 1,485,000 CNY/ton [24] - The market is primarily focused on digesting existing high-priced inventory without significant new replenishment actions [7] Tin - SHFE tin prices dropped by 3.11% to 362,460 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices decreased by 6.47% to 44,850 USD/ton [24] - Supply is under pressure due to geopolitical issues affecting major tin mining areas, while demand remains stable from traditional electronics and emerging AI sectors [7] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices fell by 1.19% to 165,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices decreased by 2.03% to 144,500 CNY/ton [39] - The market is awaiting signals for export recovery, with recent improvements in export volumes noted [7]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach to seeking investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts and fluctuating expectations regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry index has decreased by 15.08% over the past two weeks, ranking last among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan index, indicating significant market concerns regarding supply and demand dynamics [2][12]. - Precious metals have experienced a notable decline, with COMEX gold prices falling by 13.30% and COMEX silver prices dropping by 19.94% in the same period, reflecting pressures from inflation concerns and a strong dollar [20]. - The tungsten market shows strong upward momentum, with black tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 11.44% over the past two weeks, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic policy constraints [36]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index fell by 15.08% from March 9 to March 20, 2026, with all sub-sectors, including small metals (-18.50%), precious metals (-12.52%), and industrial metals (-16.07%), showing declines [2][12]. Precious Metals - As of March 20, COMEX gold closed at $4,492.00 per ounce, down 13.30% over two weeks, while COMEX silver closed at $67.81 per ounce, down 19.94% [20]. - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions and regulatory tightening on market liquidity, which has pressured precious metal prices [20]. Industrial Metals - LME copper prices were $12,021.50 per ton, down 6.14% over two weeks, while domestic copper prices averaged 95,470 yuan per ton, down 5.60% [30]. - The report anticipates a weak balance in copper prices due to macroeconomic pressures and cost support [30]. Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose to 1,023,000 yuan per ton, up 11.44% over two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 123.85% [36]. - The report notes that the tungsten market is influenced by global supply chain disruptions and domestic production constraints [36]. Rare Earths - The China Rare Earth Price Index was 255.31, down 13.58% over two weeks, but up 17.64% year-to-date [45]. - The report indicates that demand from downstream sectors is slowing, impacting the rare earth market [45]. Energy Metals - The average price of electrolytic cobalt was 431,000 yuan per ton, down 0.12% over two weeks, while lithium carbonate prices averaged 149,000 yuan per ton, down 4.03% [54]. - The report highlights the cautious market sentiment regarding the electric vehicle sector and supply chain dynamics [54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the broader market by over 10% [2][14]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-level investment opportunities amidst pressured macroeconomic sentiment [1]. - It highlights the potential for recovery in demand as seasonal factors come into play, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions affecting aluminum prices and the increasing value of gold allocations [4][6]. Summary by Sections Copper - The report notes that macroeconomic sentiment is under pressure, with a focus on downstream demand support. Recent prices for LME copper and SHFE copper were $12,022 and $94,740 per ton, reflecting week-over-week declines of 5.8% and 5.6% respectively. The copper concentrate processing fee has dropped significantly, indicating tight supply [6][10]. Precious Metals - The report suggests that there are opportunities for reallocation following recent adjustments in precious metals. SHFE gold and London spot gold prices were reported at ¥1,039.2 per gram and $4,595.1 per ounce, with week-over-week declines of 8.3% and 8.6% respectively. The volatility of gold has decreased, suggesting a potential stabilization in prices [6][10]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is experiencing a pullback, with LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices at $3,329 and $24,020 per ton, down 5.4% and 3.8% week-over-week. The report indicates a high operating rate for electrolytic aluminum and a slight increase in processing rates, suggesting a recovery trend [6][10]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices remain firm, while rare earths are under short-term pressure. The report notes that tungsten concentrate prices were at ¥1.025 million per ton, down 1.9% week-over-week. The Ministry of Commerce's new export controls on rare earths may lead to increased demand for non-restricted products [6][10]. Steel - The steel sector is seeing improvements in demand due to increased new home transactions and a faster resumption of construction activities. SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices were reported at ¥3,123 and ¥3,297 per ton, with a slight decrease in rebar prices and a marginal increase in hot-rolled coil prices [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the benchmark index by over 10% [15]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions are likely to benefit aluminum prices, while the value of gold as an investment is becoming increasingly apparent [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of seasonal demand recovery across various metals, including copper and aluminum, amidst ongoing supply chain challenges [7]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to optimize the steel industry, promoting high-quality production and reducing excess capacity, which may enhance steel demand in infrastructure and construction sectors [8]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Sector - The aluminum prices have shown a week-on-week increase, with LME aluminum rising by 4.0% to $3,520 per ton, and SHFE aluminum increasing by 1.0% to ¥24,960 per ton [7]. - The report highlights the ongoing impact of Middle Eastern supply issues and the seasonal recovery in demand [7]. Copper Sector - The copper market is experiencing slight inventory accumulation, with LME copper prices at $12,758 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.4% [7]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich copper resource reserves, such as Zijin Mining and China Gold International [11]. Precious Metals - The report notes a decline in gold prices, with SHFE gold at ¥1,133.0 per gram and London spot gold at $5,018.1 per ounce, indicating a week-on-week decrease of 0.7% and 2.4% respectively [7]. - It suggests that the current volatility in gold prices may stabilize as market conditions improve [7]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have increased by 15.5% week-on-week, with the price reaching ¥1,045,000 per ton [7]. - The report indicates potential growth in export demand for non-restricted rare earth products due to new regulations [7]. Steel Sector - The report notes a week-on-week increase in steel prices, with SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices rising by 1.7% and 2.0% respectively [8]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to drive demand for steel through infrastructure projects and urban development [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the aluminum sector such as Shenhuo Group and China Aluminum, as well as steel companies like Baosteel and Shougang [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the broader market by over 10% [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and emphasizes the importance of seasonal demand recovery in the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. - It notes a significant tightening in copper concentrate supply, with processing fees dropping sharply, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance [4]. - The report also discusses the potential for gold prices to rise due to fluctuations in non-farm employment data, suggesting a favorable outlook for precious metals [4]. - The aluminum sector is experiencing a seasonal demand recovery, with supply chain issues in the Middle East continuing to impact prices [4]. - The steel industry is expected to benefit from positive signals from government meetings, indicating potential improvements in supply and demand dynamics [5]. Summary by Sections Copper - The report indicates a sharp decline in processing fees for copper concentrates, with the latest figures showing a processing cost of -56.0 USD per dry ton, down by 5.5 USD from the previous week [4]. - The LME copper price decreased by 4.7% to 12,808 USD per ton, while SHFE copper fell by 2.8% to 101,050 CNY per ton [4]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight decline, with SHFE gold at 1,140.8 CNY per gram and London spot gold at 5,168.0 USD per ounce, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% and 1.3% respectively [4]. - The report notes an increase in gold price volatility, which may indicate changing market sentiments [4]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 7.2% to 3,385 USD per ton, while SHFE aluminum increased by 3.7% to 24,715 CNY per ton [4]. - The report highlights a high operating rate of 98.93% for electrolytic aluminum in February, with downstream demand showing signs of recovery post-holiday [4]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices increased by 13.3% to 905,000 CNY per ton, with significant price adjustments noted for various tungsten products [4]. - The report mentions export controls on certain rare earth items, which may lead to increased demand for non-restricted products [4]. Steel - The report indicates a slight increase in steel prices, with SHFE rebar at 3,088 CNY per ton and hot-rolled coil at 3,230 CNY per ton, reflecting week-on-week increases of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively [5]. - Total steel inventory rose to 19.52 million tons, with a weekly consumption of 6.335 million tons, indicating a potential recovery in demand [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected performance above the market average [2][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the industry, while also noting a seasonal recovery in demand [1]. - It emphasizes the tightening supply of copper concentrate, with a significant drop in treatment charges (TC) to -56.0 USD per dry ton, reflecting a supply shortage [4]. - The report discusses the potential for gold prices to rise due to fluctuations in non-farm employment data, with current prices at 1140.8 CNY per gram and 5168.0 USD per ounce [4]. - It notes a recovery in aluminum demand post-Spring Festival, with LME aluminum prices increasing by 7.2% week-on-week [4]. - The report also mentions the positive signals from the "Two Sessions" in China, suggesting an improvement in supply and demand dynamics for the steel industry [5]. Summary by Sections Copper - The report indicates a significant tightening in copper concentrate supply, with TC dropping sharply, suggesting a focus on companies with rich copper resources such as Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum [4][8]. Precious Metals - The report anticipates a potential increase in gold prices due to employment data volatility, recommending companies like Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold for investment [4][8]. Aluminum - The report highlights the ongoing impact of Middle Eastern supply issues and a seasonal demand recovery, suggesting investment in companies like China Aluminum and Nanshan Aluminum [4][8]. Minor Metals - The report discusses the geopolitical situation affecting minor metals, recommending investments in rare earth companies and tungsten producers due to rising demand [4][8]. Steel - The report notes positive developments from China's "Two Sessions," indicating a potential recovery in domestic demand for steel, recommending companies like Baosteel and Shougang [5][8].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that tungsten prices continue to reach historical highs, with expectations for a strong overall market for key metals [1][23] - Nickel prices are supported by tightening supply expectations due to Indonesia's reduced production quotas for 2026, which are set between 260 million to 270 million tons, significantly lower than the previous year's quota of 42 million wet tons [1][29] - Cobalt supply is expected to tighten further due to slow export progress from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a forecasted increase in cobalt prices [2][5] - Antimony prices are anticipated to remain strong due to supply constraints, with a significant drop in production reported [6][18] - Lithium supply disruptions are expected to continue, with potential for lithium prices to reach new highs amid increasing demand [8][19] - The rare earth sector is facing supply shortages, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium, which may support prices [9][20] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a notable decrease in tin imports [11][21] - Uranium supply is expected to remain tight, supporting high prices due to geopolitical factors and production delays [14][24] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Insights - Indonesia's nickel production quota for 2026 is set to significantly reduce, impacting supply and supporting prices [1][29] - Cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo are hindered by complex local processes and logistical challenges, leading to tighter supply [2][5] Antimony Industry Insights - Antimony production has seen a sharp decline, which is expected to support prices in the near term [6][18] Lithium Industry Insights - Lithium prices are under pressure due to supply disruptions, but demand remains strong, potentially leading to price increases [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Insights - Supply shortages for praseodymium and neodymium are anticipated, which may bolster prices in the market [9][20] Tin Industry Insights - Ongoing supply issues from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to support tin prices [11][21] Uranium Industry Insights - The uranium market is facing supply constraints, which are likely to keep prices elevated due to geopolitical tensions and production delays [14][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that supply constraints and downstream price increases are driving tungsten prices to new highs [4] - The rare earth market is experiencing tight supply, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide reaching new highs due to downstream restocking [6] - Molybdenum prices are rising due to post-holiday restocking demand, while tungsten prices are increasing due to supply reductions and downstream price adjustments [6] - Tin prices have surged significantly due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains, particularly from key producing regions [6] - Antimony prices are showing signs of recovery, with expectations for improved export data to support further price increases [6] Summary by Category Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 4.71% to 890,000 CNY/ton, dysprosium by 9.83% to 1,620,000 CNY/ton, and terbium by 1.56% to 6,525,000 CNY/ton [11][6] - Supply remains tight due to policy and supply-side constraints, with downstream magnetic material companies shifting from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by 6.48% to 4,435 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices increased by 5.42% to 282,000 CNY/ton [18][6] - The market is experiencing a decrease in liquidity due to reduced mine output and low inventory levels at smelters [6] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices increased by 13.13% to 784,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose by 13.66% to 1,165,000 CNY/ton [25][6] - Supply constraints from stricter mining regulations and reduced operational rates are pushing prices higher [6] Tin - SHFE tin prices surged by 24.04% to 453,240 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices increased by 18.89% to 57,425 USD/ton [31][6] - Supply chain concerns from geopolitical tensions in key producing regions are contributing to price volatility [6] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices rose by 1.82% to 167,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increased by 2.08% to 147,500 CNY/ton [46][6] - The market is awaiting signals of export recovery to support further price increases [6]

Group 1 - Antimony, a strategic mineral resource, is rare and primarily used as an industrial additive, with Hunan Gold being the industry leader in production, sales, and revenue [1][5] - Hunan Gold has a complete antimony industry chain, including exploration, mining, processing, and sales, with a production capacity of 40,000 tons per year and projected output for 2024 of 46,223 tons of antimony raw materials, 66,534 tons of antimony ingots, and 91,700 tons of antimony trioxide [2] - The antimony industry in China has many listed companies, but there are fewer upstream and midstream enterprises, with key players including Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining [5][10] Group 2 - The global supply of antimony is expected to remain tight, with China being the largest producer and having significant development potential in high-end products [10] - Companies are focusing on enhancing resource exploration, deep processing, and extending the industrial chain, with Hunan Gold aiming for 7 billion yuan in revenue by 2024 and processing 3,090 tons of antimony ash [12] - Various companies have outlined their development plans, including establishing national R&D platforms and improving resource recovery capabilities [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases in rare earth metals are attributed to ongoing supply-side reforms and upcoming policy documents for 2024-2025, indicating a bullish outlook for the industry [1][3]. Rare Earth Metals - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide is 849,800 CNY/ton, up 13.51% month-on-month - The price of dysprosium oxide is 1,450,000 CNY/ton, up 9.02% month-on-month - The price of terbium oxide is 6,460,000 CNY/ton, up 5.90% month-on-month - December saw a 3% month-on-month decrease but a 7% year-on-year increase in China's rare earth permanent magnet exports, reaching a historical high for the month [1][3]. - The processing fee for yttrium-rich europium ore has risen to 41,000 CNY/ton, indicating ongoing optimization in the smelting sector [3]. - Key stocks to watch include China Rare Earth (000831), Zhong Rare Metals (600259), Northern Rare Earth (600111), and Baotou Steel (600010) [3]. Tin - The price of tin ingots is 378,200 CNY/ton, down 10.74% month-on-month - Indonesia is considering a ban on tin raw material exports, which may create significant replenishment demand for tin processing companies [4]. - Long-term demand is expected to benefit from AI and automotive smart technology, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance for tin [4]. - Recommended stocks include Huaxi Nonferrous (600301) and others [4]. Tungsten - The price of tungsten concentrate is 696,700 CNY/ton, up 15.99% month-on-month - The price of ammonium paratungstate is 1,025,200 CNY/ton, up 15.11% month-on-month - The U.S. is increasing its strategic reserves, which may elevate tungsten's priority in the market [4]. - Recommended stocks include China Tungsten High-Tech (000657) and Xiamen Tungsten (600549) [4]. Antimony - The price of antimony ingots is 165,100 CNY/ton, up 0.62% month-on-month - The price of antimony concentrate is 144,000 CNY/ton, up 2.13% month-on-month - December saw a 4% month-on-month increase but a 71% year-on-year decrease in antimony exports [5]. - The outlook remains positive due to potential recovery in exports and stable demand, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector [5]. - Recommended stocks include Huaxi Nonferrous and Hunan Gold (002155) [5]. Molybdenum - The price of molybdenum concentrate is 4,165 CNY/ton, up 2.97% month-on-month - The price of ferromolybdenum is 267,100 CNY/ton, up 3.33% month-on-month - The domestic molybdenum price is stabilizing due to high tungsten prices and increased defense spending [5]. - Recommended stocks include Jinduicheng Molybdenum (601958) and Guocheng Mining (000688) [5].