证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 13 日 DoD 入股 MP 以加速美国稀土磁体独立，但 短期全球稀土永磁体生产仍高度集中于中国 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比下跌，国内 NPI 冶炼厂成本倒挂依 然严重 截止到 7 月 11 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 14955 美元/ 吨，较 7 月 4 日下跌 1.09%，LME 镍总库存为 206178 吨，较 7 月 4 日增加 1.83%；沪镍报收 12.14 万元/吨，较 7 月 4 日下 跌 0.83%，沪镍库存为 25,047.00 吨，较 7 月 4 日增加 0.50%；截止到 7 月 11 日，硫酸镍报收 27,900.00 元/吨，较 7 月 4 日价格下跌 2.11%。根据 SMM，从供给端来看，菲律宾 主产区矿区降雨影响较小。进入 7 月，预计整体三季度发运量 都将维持较高水平，矿到港量将继续增加，供应充足。截止到 7 月 11 日，中国镍矿港口库存增加至 720 万湿吨。前期发运 船只陆续到港，库存增加。受于超长雨 ...

3800吨！ 这个触目惊心的数字是美国海关披露的惊人事实。 在去年12月至今年4月期间，美国通过第三国转运方式，成功获取3834吨中国产氧化锑，几乎超过前三年的总和。 价格暴涨刺激铤而走险。自中国实施管制以来，部分稀土元素价格飙升逾200%，达到每公斤3000美元的历史高位。 更令人警醒的是，路透社调查发现中国境内企业与境外买家勾结，将受管制的锑矿伪装成普通铁矿、锌矿报关，先运往东南亚或拉美国家，再辗转流入美国 军工生产线。 当稀土管制成为中国对美博弈的战略王牌，这些走私暗道正让国家利益悄然流失。 稀土走私并非传统意义上的海上偷运，而是一场精心设计的跨国"合法伪装"游戏。 美国企业主Levi Parker向媒体透露了标准操作流程：中国采购代理商从生产商处获取镓、锑等管制矿产，物流公司随即更换包装，贴上"铁矿石""锌精矿"甚 至"艺术品"的假标签。 货物先运往泰国、墨西哥等第三国"洗身份"，再由当地合作伙伴重新包装发往美国。 航运记录揭露了一个典型案例：一家中国广西化工企业在泰国的子公司，在半年内向美国运送了至少3366吨锑产品，同比激增27倍。 而泰国全国仅有的一座锑冶炼厂产能微乎其微，这些货物的真实来源不言 ...

证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 板块表现： 锑价受需求影响持续探底，钨价受供给扰动维持高位 稀土：国内价格震荡，部分磁材厂拿到出口审批等待价格突破。近两周，氧化镨钕 上涨 0.45%至 44.6 万元/吨，氧化镝上涨 0.61%至 164 万元/吨，氧化铽下跌 0.42% 至 712 万元/吨。受 4 月 4 日中国限制 7 种中重稀土相关产品出口影响，5 月海外氧 化镝、氧化铽暴涨，海外缺货大涨而国内涨价相对一般主要受出口限制影响导致国 内外两市场割裂导致。6 月中国商务部宣布加快稀土出口审批流程，以缓解全球供应 链紧张局势，截至目前部分企业已陆续获得出口许可证。供给端，低价矿端收紧， 需求端，终端磁材订单恢复较弱刚需采购为主，短期价格维持震荡格局。后续可关 注：1）稀土总量控制意见稿落地时间；2）稀土配额；3）缅甸稀土矿进口。稀土作 为高胜率板块，中重稀土弹性更大。建议关注：广晟有色、中国稀土、北方稀土、 金力永磁、宁波韵升、正海磁材等。 联系人 钼：供给端收缩预期叠加需求承压，钼价高位调整。近两周，钼精矿价格下跌 0.78% 至 ...

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 7 月 5 日 缅甸锡矿进口量连续多月低于 1 万吨警戒线， 供应偏紧预期对锡价或有支撑 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比上涨，贸易商仍存在补库需求 截止到 7 月 4 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 15,120 美元/ 吨，较 6 月 27 日上涨 0. 6%，LME 镍总库存为 202,470.00 吨，较 6 月 27 日减少 0.89%；沪镍报收 12.24 万元/吨，较 6 月 27 日上涨 1.50%，沪镍库存为 24,922.00 吨，较 6 月 27 日 减少 0.83%；截止到 6 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 28,500.00 元/吨， 较 6 月 27 日价格持平。根据 SMM，从供给端来看，国内市场 方面，菲律宾镍矿的 CIF 价格较高，冶炼厂的生产成本显著增 加。华北地区部分冶炼厂的生产负荷有所下调，且由于菲律宾 镍矿品位的下降，国内金属产量或面临走弱的预期。印尼方 面，主流冶炼厂的生产成本出现倒挂，部分冶炼厂已经开始进 行检修，加之可 ...

Core Insights - The ongoing competition between China and the United States over rare earth elements (REE) has intensified, with China employing strategic measures to control its supply and protect its technological advantages [5][11][28] Group 1: Strategic Measures - China has implemented a command requiring domestic rare earth experts to surrender their passports, effectively restricting their ability to leave the country and preventing foreign entities from acquiring critical technical knowledge [11][13] - The export volume of rare earth magnets from China has significantly decreased, attributed to stricter approval processes for export licenses, which now require detailed explanations of the intended use and final destination of the products [20][22] Group 2: U.S. Response and Challenges - U.S. officials express concern over the dependency on Chinese rare earths, with statements indicating that achieving independence from this reliance could take at least a generation [15][19] - The U.S. lacks a complete supply chain for rare earths, facing challenges in mining, processing, and production, which complicates efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supplies [16][17] Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - China dominates the global rare earth market, producing 60% of the world's supply and refining 90% of it, giving it a significant leverage in international trade [16] - The complexity of rare earth separation technology poses a barrier for Western countries attempting to replicate China's capabilities, as they struggle to find experienced personnel and effective operational methods [22][24] Group 4: Implications for National Security - The strategic importance of rare earths is underscored by their critical role in advanced military applications, with potential supply disruptions posing serious risks to national security for countries reliant on these materials [9][18] - The illicit export of rare earths has emerged as a concern, with reports of sophisticated smuggling operations aimed at circumventing Chinese export controls [19][20]

证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 06 月 22 日 证券分析师 板块表现： 稀土磁材陆续获得出口许可证，需求疲软下锑价持续调整 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属＆新材料双周报（2025/6/9-2025/6/20） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 稀土：国内价格震荡，部分磁材厂拿到出口审批等待价格突破。近两周，氧化镨钕 下跌 1.11%至 44.4 万元/吨，氧化镝保持平价，为 163.00 万元/吨，氧化铽下跌 0.69% 至 7 ...

湖南黄金 20250618 摘要 湖南黄金二季度黄金产量预计环比一季度略有提升，但受金价下跌及出 口管制影响，销量可能不及一季度。公司全年黄金产量目标为 4.2 吨， 锑产量目标为 1.8 万吨，目前进度与规划仍有差距。 湖南黄金集团对万古矿区资源整合主要集中在湖南黄金公司层面，目前 尚未有明确解决方案。计划将中部矿区并入黄金洞矿区进行合作，可能 改变现金收购方式。 一季度湖南黄金库存去化情况良好，但二季度受出口端影响较大，出口 量减少，销售主要集中于国内市场。锑产品进口和出口均受国内外价差 影响，未见明显缓解。 一季报锑收入和利润基于 12 月至 2 月价格，二季报将反映 3 月至 5 月 价格。国外合同账期较长，价格反映周期较国内现货市场更长。 湖南黄金一季度进行了部分套保操作，但因单边下跌未全部平仓，部分 仓位可能在 20 多元时平仓。具体平仓情况尚未明确。 锑价从 3 月底的 26 万元下跌至 18-19 万元，主要受出口限制和下游成 本压力影响，导致供需双弱。光伏抢装对 3 月份价格有一定刺激，目前 回调属正常现象，具体止跌位置难以预测。 甘肃加鑫矿业建设进度仍按原计划进行，已启动基础建设，但受少数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic antimony price has experienced a significant increase, with the average price of antimony concentrate reaching 172,800 yuan per ton by the end of May 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 113.3% [2][6]. Price Trends - Antimony prices have been on a rapid upward trend since mid-February 2025, with continuous increases in March and sustained high levels in May [2]. - As of the end of May, the average price of antimony ingots was 194,500 yuan per ton, up 100.7% year-on-year, with a peak price of 240,000 yuan per ton [7]. - The average price of antimony oxide reached 174,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 103.6% [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The antimony market has been characterized by tight supply since early 2025, with a notable rebound in prices from mid-February to mid-April [6][12]. - Exports of antimony products have significantly declined, with no exports of antimony ore and a 59.3% decrease in antimony oxide exports from January to April [13]. - Imports of antimony concentrate also fell by 28.26% during the same period, indicating a tightening supply situation domestically [15]. Future Outlook - The domestic antimony market is expected to continue experiencing high prices due to ongoing supply constraints and reduced imports [16][18]. - The demand for antimony is supported by growth in key downstream applications, particularly in synthetic rubber, solar cells, and electric vehicles, which have all seen double-digit growth [16]. - The overall economic environment, including the impact of protectionist trade policies, is anticipated to influence the antimony market, but China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience with a recovery in the PMI [19].

有色金属行业双周报 2025 年 06 月 09 日 [Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 贵金属价格走高，战略小金属价格分化 ——有色金属行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾：近 2 周申万有色金属指数上涨 1.18% 近 2 周（2025.5.26-2025.6.06），有色金属行业指数上涨 1.18%，跑 赢沪深 300 指数，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 12。从细分领域看， 小金属（4.56%）、金属新材料（3.93%）涨幅居前，贵金属、能源金 属和工业金属分别变化 1.41%、0.38%、0.06%。 金属价格:白银价格大幅飙升，稀土价格变化分化 截至 6 月 6 日，COMEX 黄金收盘价为 3331 美元/盎司，近 2 周下跌 0.80%；COMEX 银收盘价为 36.13 美元/盎司，近 2 周上涨 7.40%， 主要由于金银比修复逻辑、白银特有属性及市场情绪共振驱动所致； LME 锡现价 32,255 美元/吨，近两周下跌 1.26%；沪锡现价 263,562 元/吨，近两周下跌 0.41%；65%黑钨精矿现 ...

Group 1: Rare Earths - Recent price increases for rare earth elements, with neodymium oxide rising 4.66% to 449,000 CNY/ton, dysprosium oxide up 0.31% to 1,630,000 CNY/ton, and terbium oxide increasing 1.69% to 7,200,000 CNY/ton [1][2] - Significant price surges in overseas markets due to China's export restrictions on seven types of medium and heavy rare earth products, with dysprosium oxide in Europe rising from 250-310 USD/kg to 700-1000 USD/kg (204% increase) and terbium oxide from 930-1000 USD/kg to 2000-4000 USD/kg (211% increase) [1][2] - Domestic prices may follow the trend of antimony prices once companies obtain export licenses, leading to potential further increases in rare earth prices [2] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have increased, with molybdenum concentrate rising 6.33% to 3,865 CNY/ton and molybdenum iron (Mo60) up 4.01% to 246,500 CNY/ton [3] - Supply-side contraction signals are emerging, while demand remains steady, supporting price increases [3] Group 3: Tungsten - Tungsten prices have reached new highs, with black tungsten concentrate rising 4.88% to 172,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate up 4.33% to 253,000 CNY/ton [3] - Supply constraints due to reduced mining quotas and stable domestic demand are driving prices higher [3] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices are experiencing fluctuations, with SHFE tin down 0.38% to 263,600 CNY/ton and LME tin down 0.98% to 32,400 USD/ton [4] - Current supply is tight due to low operating rates in Yunnan and the resumption of production at the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [4] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony prices are adjusting downward, with antimony ingot prices down 3.37% to 215,000 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate down 3.85% to 187,500 CNY/ton [4] - Supply improvements from logistics recovery at the China-Myanmar border and a 30% increase in imports are contributing to price adjustments [4] Group 6: New Materials - A window for export recovery in new materials has emerged following the easing of tariffs between China and the U.S., with potential for recovery in companies with high export exposure [5] - The agreement includes the cancellation of significant tariffs on Chinese goods, which may benefit new material companies [5] Group 7: Nuclear Fusion Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [6] - Major advancements in both domestic and international nuclear fusion projects indicate a high growth phase for related materials [6]