本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价-3.05%到 10374.00 美元/吨，沪铜+3.37%到 8.59 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，截至本周四，全国主 流地区铜库存周内环比增加 1.8 万吨至 16.63 万吨，主因国产货源到货增加叠加下游消费持续偏弱；展望后续，SMM 预期进口与国产货源到货将增加，且铜价高位抑制下游采购情绪，预计下周库存会有所增加。冶炼端，据 SMM，受节 前后铜价大幅上涨、再生铜原料供应增加影响，本周废产阳极板企业开工率为 53.04%，环比上升 1.41 个百分点； 预计下周开工率环比再升 5.09 个百分点，达 58.13%。消费端，据 SMM，本周黄铜棒行业表现偏弱，企业开工率 41.3%， 较节前回落 7.18 个百分点，主因国庆假期企业停工放假，生产节奏放缓；库存方面，样本企业原料库存 4.45 天、 成品库存 5.99 天，受铜价快速冲高影响，企业普遍控制备货，整体库存较前期收缩。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+1.63%到 2746.00 美元/吨，沪铝+1.45%到 2.10 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，本周四国内主流消费地 电解铝锭库存 64.90 万吨，较 9 月 ...

证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券分析师 板块表现： 印尼供给扰动推动锡价走强，稀土行业出台出口管制公告 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属＆新材料双周报（2025/9/29-2025/10/10） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 稀土：宏观情绪增强，氧化镨钕高位震荡。近两周，氧化镨钕下跌 0.89%至 55.75 万元/吨，氧化镝上涨 0.62%至 162 万元/吨，氧化铽下跌 0.35%至 702.5 万元/吨。 ...

小金属：国内市场延续弱势运行，锑锭价格下调。本周2#高铋锑锭市场价格为16.75万 元/吨，2#低铋锑锭市场价格为16.95万元/吨，1#锑锭市场价格为17.05万元/吨，0#锑锭市场 价格为17.35万元/吨，均价较上周同期下调0.3万元/吨；本周氧化锑价格下调，99.5%三氧化 二锑市场价格14.15万元/吨，均价较上周同期价格下调0.3万元/吨；99.8%三氧化二锑市场价 格15万元/吨，均价较上周同期价格下调0.25万元/吨；本周锑市场仍呈弱势运行，供需端， 原料矿低价现货难买，且报价调价谨慎，矿商挺价意愿强烈，价格阴跌下，卖货商采买也同 样谨慎，原料成本就锑价支撑强劲；冶炼厂目前虽保持开工状态但整体出货量不大，绝大多 数冶炼厂保留有一条生产线开工；需求端则继无利好提振，普遍反馈询单一般，下游选择面 较多，采购氧化锑99.5%情况好于氧化锑99.8%；本周成交情绪保持疲软状态，询单在国庆 假期前夕未见明显好转，各家均为维护老客户订单为主；此节点下，各家库存所剩不多，买 方市场下对市场看涨积极性不高。建议关注：湖南黄金，华锡有色，华钰矿业，豫光金铅。 稀土永磁：价格震荡，基本面改善方向不改。具体价格方面 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the increase in the price of copper and aluminum, driven by supply disruptions and demand recovery [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF showed a stable performance with a 1.5% increase in price and a transaction volume of 1.4755 million yuan, bringing the fund's total size to 303 million yuan [1] - Key stocks such as Baiyin Nonferrous, Guiyan Platinum, and Xingye Silver Tin saw significant gains of 3.6%, 3.23%, and 2.92% respectively, while Shenghe Resources experienced a decline of 1.41% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The Grasberg copper mine, the second largest globally, has halted production due to an accident, leading Freeport to project a significant decrease in copper sales by Q4 2025 and a potential 35% drop in production in 2026, exacerbating supply tightness [1] - The aluminum sector is witnessing a positive trend with successful technological advancements in aluminum alloy materials for automotive applications, recognized by high-end clients like BMW and Mercedes, which is expected to drive industry transformation [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - Tianfeng Securities indicates a bullish sentiment in the copper market, with prices expected to continue rising due to supply-demand dynamics and a favorable outlook for aluminum prices supported by inventory reductions and seasonal demand [1][2] - The cobalt sector is facing increased prices due to export bans and quota policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a tightening of raw material supply [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [13][16]. Core Insights - Copper prices have surged due to unexpected production cuts, leading to significant supply shortages and rapid price increases [13]. - Aluminum is showing signs of recovery with inventory levels decreasing and downstream processing rates improving, suggesting a potential for sustained high profitability [15]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to rise further due to market anticipation of continuous interest rate cuts [16]. Summary by Sections Copper - This week, LME copper price increased by 2.09% to $10,205.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.20% to 82,500 yuan per ton [14]. - Supply side: The import copper concentrate processing fee index rose to -$40.36 per ton; national copper inventory decreased by 4,400 tons to 140,100 tons [14]. - Consumption side: Brass rod enterprises' operating rate was 48.49%, showing a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points [14]. Aluminum - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 1.01% to $2,649.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.24% to 20,700 yuan per ton [15]. - Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped by 21,000 tons to 617,000 tons [15]. - Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%, driven by pre-holiday stocking [15]. Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold price rose by 0.23% to $3,789.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing by 5.15 tons to 1,005.72 tons [16]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to a volatile trading environment [16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased, while the export volume of magnetic materials saw significant growth [32]. - Domestic rare earth separation enterprises are preparing for production halts, indicating potential supply constraints [32]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price is at 174,900 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.26% [33]. - The demand for antimony is expected to recover as the photovoltaic glass market stabilizes [33]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate price is 4,450 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.45% [34]. - The demand for molybdenum is expected to rise as major steel mills resume procurement [34]. Tin - Tin ingot price increased by 1.74% to 273,700 yuan per ton, with inventory decreasing by 6.14% [35]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, supported by strong inventory levels and demand from the semiconductor sector [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent contract awarded to U.S. Antimony Corporation (USAC) by the U.S. Department of Defense for the supply of antimony metal ingots, highlighting the strategic importance of antimony in the supply chain and its price fluctuations in 2025 [4][6]. Group 1: Contract and Supply Chain Security - U.S. Antimony Corporation has secured a five-year exclusive contract with the U.S. Department of Defense, with a maximum supply value of $245 million for antimony metal ingots [4]. - The contract reflects U.S. concerns over supply chain security for antimony, which is classified as a critical mineral by the U.S. and other countries [6]. Group 2: Antimony Price Trends - Antimony prices experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, rising from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton between January 1 and April 17, marking a 68% increase [7][8]. - Following the peak, prices fell to 176,000 CNY/ton by September 22, attributed to reduced demand and government policies targeting smuggling [8]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - In 2023, China's antimony export volume accounted for 35% of its production, with a notable decline in exports during May to July due to government crackdowns on smuggling [10]. - However, signs of recovery in exports were observed in August, with a significant month-on-month increase [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that American Antimony has secured a significant contract with the U.S. Department of Defense for antimony ingots, with the first delivery expected to be completed this week, highlighting the strategic importance of antimony in the supply chain [1][2] - The contract reflects U.S. concerns over antimony supply chain security and emphasizes the metal's strategic value, as antimony is classified as a critical mineral by multiple countries, including the U.S., EU, and Japan [2][3] Group 2 - Antimony prices experienced fluctuations this year, rising from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton between January 1 and April 17, 2025, a 68% increase, before declining to 176,000 CNY/ton by September 22, 2025, due to high prices leading to negative feedback on demand [3] - The increase in antimony prices was driven by low inventory levels, difficulties in raw material replenishment, and strong demand from the photovoltaic sector, particularly following new policies that boosted demand for photovoltaic glass [3][4] Group 3 - China's antimony export volume accounted for 35% of its production in 2023, but exports significantly declined from May to July 2025 due to government crackdowns on smuggling, with exports recovering to 198 tons in August, a 168% increase month-on-month [4] - The outlook for domestic antimony prices is positive, with expectations of price increases as compliance-based exports resume, despite limited supply growth due to resource constraints [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Insights - The strategic value of antimony has been highlighted by the recent exclusive five-year contract awarded to U.S. Antimony Corporation by the U.S. Department of Defense, with a maximum supply value of $245 million for antimony metal ingots [1][2]. - The contract reflects U.S. concerns over supply chain security for antimony, which is recognized as a critical mineral by multiple countries, including the U.S., EU, and Japan [2]. - Antimony prices experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, with a peak price of 240,000 CNY/ton in April, followed by a decline to 176,000 CNY/ton by September [3][4]. Summary by Sections Antimony Market Dynamics - Antimony prices rose sharply from February to April 2025, increasing by 68% due to low inventory, difficult raw material replenishment, and positive market sentiment, driven by demand from the photovoltaic sector [3]. - A subsequent price correction occurred from April to September 2025, attributed to high prices leading to negative feedback on demand and government policies targeting smuggling, which significantly reduced antimony oxide exports [3][4]. Export Trends and Future Outlook - In 2023, China's antimony export volume accounted for 35% of its production, with a notable decline in exports during the first half of 2025 due to government crackdowns on smuggling [4]. - Recent statements from the Ministry of Commerce indicate a potential recovery in antimony exports, which could lead to an upward adjustment in domestic antimony prices [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for domestic antimony prices in the medium to long term, given the limited supply increase and the anticipated recovery of compliant antimony exports [4]. - Key companies to watch include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential investment opportunities [5].

Group 1: Market Performance - U.S. rare earth stocks saw significant activity, with United States Antimony (UAMY.US) rising over 20%, USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) and NioCorp Developments (NB.US) increasing over 5%, TMC the metals (TMC.US) up over 3%, and MP Materials (MP.US) gaining nearly 2% [1] Group 2: Company Contracts and Revenue - UAMY announced a contract with the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency for a value of up to $245 million for the purchase of antimony ingots, which is approximately 16 times its projected 2024 revenue of $14.9 million [1] - The company operates one of the only two antimony smelters in North America and is prepared to fulfill the first order immediately [1] Group 3: Antimony Market Insights - Antimony is a strategic minor metal with strong resource scarcity, and domestic restrictions on antimony mining are increasing, while overseas mines face resource depletion [2] - The main future global antimony supply increases are expected from Huayu Mining's Takin project and Russia's Solonechenskoye antimony mine [2] - Traditional demand for antimony in flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, and polyester catalysts is stable, with photovoltaic glass expected to become the second-largest demand sector due to rising installation rates [2] Group 4: Production Forecasts - Polar Gold is a major overseas source of antimony, with a production of 27,100 tons in 2023, accounting for 26% of global output, but expected to drop to 12,700 tons in 2024, reducing its global share to 13% [2] - The production forecast for Polar Gold in 2024 is 8,616 tons in the first half and 4,056 tons in the second half, with annualized production shares of 17% and 8% respectively [2] Group 5: Price Outlook - Antimony prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term due to limited supply increases domestically and abroad, alongside the recovery of compliant antimony exports from China [3] - The cash costs for Polar Gold are projected to increase in 2025, primarily due to a significant decline in antimony production [3]

Group 1: Market Performance - Rare earth concept stocks in the US saw significant activity, with United States Antimony (UAMY.US) rising over 20%, USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) and NioCorp Developments (NB.US) increasing over 5%, TMC the metals (TMC.US) up over 3%, and MP Materials (MP.US) gaining nearly 2% [1] - UAMY announced a contract worth up to $245 million from the US Defense Logistics Agency for the purchase of antimony ingots, which is approximately 16 times its projected revenue for 2024 of $14.9 million [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Antimony is a strategic minor metal with strong resource scarcity, and domestic restrictions on antimony mining are increasing, while overseas mines face resource depletion [2] - The main future global antimony supply increases are expected from Huayu Mining's Tajin project and Russia's Solonechenskoye antimony mine [2] - Traditional demand for antimony in flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, and polyester catalysts is stable, with photovoltaic glass expected to become the second-largest demand sector due to rising installation rates [2] - Polar Gold is a major overseas source of antimony, with production in 2023 at 27,100 tons, accounting for 26% of global output, but expected to drop to 12,700 tons in 2024, reducing its global share to 13% [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Antimony prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term due to tightening supply and recovering exports, with domestic prices likely to increase as compliance with export regulations improves [3] - The cash costs for Polar Gold are projected to rise in 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in antimony production, which is expected to remain low [3] - The overall outlook for antimony prices is positive, with limited supply increases domestically and abroad, supporting a potential upward shift in price levels [3] Group 4: Company Involvement - China Minmetals' subsidiary, Hunan Xikang Mining, controls over 300,000 tons of antimony resources [4] - Jiangxi Copper's product line includes crude antimony and sodium antimonate compounds [5]