智通财经APP获悉，华福证券发布研报称，从淡季以来，锑出口预期逐渐加强，行业内也即将迎来传统 的金九银十。该行认为短期，随出口预期增强，锑价格或将触底反弹。建议关注锡/锑资源龙头企业华 锡有色(600301.SH)、产能有增量的华钰矿业(601020.SH)以及金锑双轮驱动的湖南黄金(002155.SZ)。 华福证券主要观点如下： 锑矿 1)单锑矿：2025年7月进口锑矿2307吨，环比+483吨/+27%，同比-3885吨/-63%;1-7月进口20223吨，同 比-11834吨/-37%。7月，中国进口塔吉克斯坦0吨(环比-76吨)，俄罗斯428(+428)、秘鲁365(-397)、泰国 24(-4)、缅甸408(-285)、玻利维亚688(+641)、乍得0(-63)、津巴布韦82(+55)、澳大利亚0(+0)、吉尔吉斯 斯坦116(+63)吨。2)金锑矿：7月注册地为山东的企业从俄罗斯进口其他贵金属矿8180吨，环比+21%， 同比-21%;1-7月累计进口67732吨，同比+15168吨/ +29%。 锑锭 1)产量：7月，锑锭产量3767吨，环比-25%，同比-35%;1-7月累计产量4.04万吨 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][58] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant decline in antimony production and imports, with June 2025 antimony ingot production at 4,989 tons, down 22% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [3][19] - The report suggests that domestic supply and demand are both weak, with major manufacturers maintaining prices while waiting for export recovery [5][51] Summary by Sections 1. Upstream Antimony Ore - In June 2025, antimony ore imports were 1,824 tons, a decrease of 22% month-on-month and 60% year-on-year [3][11] - The average import price for antimony ore in June was $2,960 per ton, down 64% month-on-month and 44% year-on-year [11] 2. Midstream Antimony Ingots - Antimony ingot production in June was 4,989 tons, a decrease of 22% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [19] - Cumulative exports for the first half of 2025 were 267 tons, down 84% year-on-year [21] 3. Midstream Antimony Oxide - Antimony oxide production in June was 5,315 tons, down 32% month-on-month and 38% year-on-year [26] - Cumulative exports for the first half of 2025 were 4,651 tons, down 73% year-on-year [28] 4. Downstream Demand - Chemical fiber production in June was 7.36 million tons, up 0.2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year [31] - The production of polyester products increased by 13% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [33] 5. Supply and Prices - As of July 31, 2025, the price of antimony ingots was 187,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 17% year-on-year [43] - The report notes a tightening supply trend for antimony in 2025, with a significant decrease in imports [43] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, which are expected to benefit from dual drivers in the antimony market [5][51]

Core Insights - China has initiated a special operation named "Shield" to combat the illegal outflow of strategic minerals, marking a significant enforcement action against smuggling activities [1] - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective from July 1, 2025, represents a comprehensive revision aimed at addressing key issues in mineral exploration and extraction, enhancing the legal framework for resource management [3][5] Group 1: Enforcement Actions - The operation "Shield" involved customs authorities intercepting a cargo ship carrying antimony ingots disguised as industrial raw materials, highlighting China's commitment to curbing illegal mineral exports [1] - Trade data revealed that Thailand and Mexico exported 3,834 tons of antimony oxide to the U.S. within a few months, surpassing the total from the previous three years, indicating a surge in smuggling activities [1] Group 2: Legislative Changes - The revised Mineral Resources Law introduces a direct acquisition system for mining rights, resolving the challenges faced by explorers in transitioning to mining operations [3] - The law mandates that all mining operations must adhere to an ecological restoration principle, linking mining permits to the responsibility of land rehabilitation [5] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The U.S. has been actively seeking to reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths through initiatives like the "Critical Minerals Initiative," which aims to create alternative supply chains [3] - The legal reforms in China signal a shift in the perception of strategic minerals from ordinary commodities to critical assets in national security and international competition [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a key area for mineral exploration, particularly focusing on antimony resources in southern Xinjiang, with significant investments planned for geological exploration projects [1][4] - The report indicates that Xinjiang's three major mineralization belts possess rich mineral resources, with the western Kunlun-Altyn mineralization belt being particularly noted for its antimony deposits [2] - Recent years have seen an acceleration in the granting of antimony mining rights in Xinjiang, with several notable projects underway, including the Huangyangling and Shierkule antimony mines, which are expected to contribute significantly to the region's antimony output [3] Summary by Sections Exploration and Development - The report outlines that during the 14th Five-Year Plan, Xinjiang will continue to prioritize exploration and mining activities, particularly in the Hotan region, aiming to enhance the domestic supply of antimony resources [4] - Specific plans include the establishment of a new mining development framework in Hotan, targeting the discovery of 2-3 medium to large mineral deposits and increasing antimony resources by 50,000 tons during the planning period [4] Market Outlook - The report concludes that as eastern China's antimony resources are rapidly depleting, the westward shift of resources presents a viable alternative for the mining industry, with Xinjiang's favorable geological conditions and rich mineral resources positioning it as a critical base for mineral resources in China [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region's Natural Resources Department has reported six typical cases of illegal mining activities, aiming to enhance regulatory enforcement and deter violations in mineral resource management [1][3]. Group 1: Summary of Typical Cases - In 2024, individuals in Nanning illegally mined approximately 5.2 tons of antimony ore without a mining license, leading to an investigation initiated on May 13 [2]. - A mining company in Cenxi City exceeded its mining license limits for lead and zinc mining, resulting in a case opened on May 20, 2024 [2]. - Another mining company in Hezhou illegally mined 200,700 tons of potassium feldspar beyond its licensed area, with the case opened on November 15, 2024 [2]. - A company in Jiangzhou District violated regulations by mining limestone from June 2020 to 2022, with an estimated resource volume of 150,000 tons over an area of approximately 88.17 acres [2]. - A company in Xiangzhou County began unauthorized clay extraction on a temporary land use area, with a total extraction area of 122 acres and a volume of about 810,000 cubic meters starting from November 2024 [2]. - A county government improperly approved the sale of land for a breeding project, resulting in the extraction of 338,900 cubic meters of construction materials, including 773,400 tons of building sand [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The reported illegal activities have severely disrupted the order of mineral resource management and caused significant losses to national mineral resources [3]. - The Guangxi Natural Resources Department emphasizes the need for strict legal enforcement, mandating that cases meeting the criteria must be prosecuted, and serious violations involving heavy metals should be dealt with swiftly and severely [3]. - There is a call for lessons to be learned from these cases to strengthen regulatory oversight and prevent similar issues in the future [3].

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of China's rare earth industry from a low-cost exporter to a strategic resource powerhouse has significant implications for global power dynamics, particularly in military and high-tech sectors [1][5][6]. Group 1: Historical Context - Thirty years ago, China sold rare earth resources at low prices to five countries, which were then used for military and technological applications [1]. - In the 1990s, rare earth prices plummeted, with domestic miners selling below cost while international prices for processed materials soared [3]. Group 2: Key Turning Points - A pivotal moment occurred in 2010 when China cut off rare earth supplies to Japan during a diplomatic dispute, highlighting its control over 90% of global rare earth production [5]. - In 2025, the U.S. faced a crisis when China restricted access to key rare earth elements, severely impacting military production capabilities, particularly for the F-35 fighter jet [6]. Group 3: Strategic Advantages - China maintains complete control over the rare earth supply chain, from mining to production, with significant capabilities in refining and manufacturing [6]. - The complexity of rare earth separation technology has been a barrier for foreign competitors, with Chinese engineers developing processes that remain elusive to U.S. laboratories [6]. - Environmental regulations have been tightened, leading to the closure of small mines and the establishment of six major rare earth groups that collaborate to stabilize prices [6][9]. Group 4: Current Challenges for the U.S. - Despite the reopening of the Mountain Pass mine in the U.S., the country still relies on China for processing, revealing a dependency in the supply chain [7]. - The U.S. military's secret stockpile of 15 tons of dysprosium is only sufficient for six months of operations, underscoring the urgency of the situation [7]. Group 5: Environmental and Economic Impact - The cost of pollution control in China's rare earth mining regions has reached 13 billion yuan, reflecting the environmental challenges associated with the industry [9]. - China has implemented strict environmental standards and advanced recycling technologies, achieving both resource control and pollution management [10].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][64]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a weak supply and demand situation in the antimony industry, with domestic antimony ingot prices experiencing a correction. However, large manufacturers are maintaining prices, suggesting limited downside potential [5][48]. - The report highlights that the domestic market is facing weak demand from downstream sectors such as photovoltaics and flame retardants, leading to a sluggish trading environment [4][48]. Summary by Sections Antimony Ore - In April 2025, antimony ore imports reached 4,239 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2,756 tons (+186%), but a year-on-year decrease of 2,096 tons (-33.1%). Cumulative imports from January to April totaled 13,769 tons, down 5,360 tons (-28%) year-on-year [3][11]. - The average import price for antimony ore in April was $5,908 per ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 125% and a year-on-year increase of 48% [11]. Antimony Ingot - Antimony ingot production in April was 6,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10% but a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Cumulative production from January to April was 25,295 tons, up 5.6% year-on-year [4][18]. - Exports in April were 90 tons, down 34% month-on-month and down 62% year-on-year, with cumulative exports from January to April totaling 247 tons, a decrease of 76% year-on-year [4][21]. Antimony Oxide - Antimony oxide production in April was 6,470 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 32%. Cumulative production from January to April was 27,345 tons, down 21% year-on-year [4][27]. - Exports in April were 957 tons, a month-on-month increase of 56 tons (+6.2%) but a year-on-year decrease of 63.5%. Cumulative exports from January to April totaled 4,405 tons, down 59% year-on-year [4][29]. Downstream Demand - The report notes weak demand for photovoltaic glass, with April production at 2.28 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.7%. Cumulative production from January to April was 7.95 million tons, down 10.9% year-on-year [4][41]. - The production of flame retardants showed growth, with chemical fiber production in April at 7.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [4][32]. Supply and Prices - As of May 19, 2025, domestic antimony ingot prices were 225,000 yuan per ton, up 105,000 yuan (+88%) year-on-year, while international prices were $61,000 per ton, up $48,500 (+369%) year-on-year [4][48]. - The report indicates a tightening supply trend for antimony ore imports, contributing to the price increases observed [48][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, which are positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of gold and antimony resources, as well as Huayu Mining, which has increasing production capacity [5][57].

Group 1: Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements are highly valued non-renewable mineral resources in China, crucial for various industrial applications, especially in metallurgy and manufacturing [1] - China remains the largest country in terms of rare earth reserves and also leads the world in export volume [1] - Due to decades of continuous exports, China's rare earth reserves are depleting, prompting the government to implement policies to strengthen management and monitoring of rare earth exports [1] Group 2: Antimony Mining - Antimony is a hard metal with a high luster, historically used since ancient Egypt, and recognized for its strong corrosion and oxidation resistance [4] - The unique properties of antimony, such as thermal expansion and hardness adjustment, have led to its widespread application in military and industrial developments, including rockets and alloys [6] - Global consumption of antimony ore is approximately 130,000 tons annually, while current global reserves are just over 1 million tons, indicating a potential depletion risk in the coming years [6] Group 3: China's Antimony Resource Management - China is the country with the largest antimony reserves and export volume, and has begun to restrict antimony ore exports to protect this valuable resource [6][8] - The reduction in exports is not aimed at any specific country but is a necessary measure for resource protection, with significant cuts initiated in 2020 [8] - The U.S. has historically relied on imports for antimony, having ceased domestic mining two decades ago, and is now facing challenges due to China's export restrictions [8]