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国盛证券:7月供应大幅下滑 锑品出口收紧或接近尾声
智通财经网· 2025-08-26 08:14
Core Viewpoint - The antimony industry is facing supply pressure due to declining demand and rising import costs, leading to a significant drop in domestic production in July. The long-term outlook remains positive for antimony prices due to strong fundamentals and geopolitical factors [1][4][6]. Supply Side - Domestic antimony ingot production in July was 3,729 tons, a decrease of 36% year-on-year and 25% month-on-month. From January to July, production totaled 40,300 tons, down 6% year-on-year [4]. - The supply forecast for antimony from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 112,000 tons, 119,000 tons, and 127,000 tons respectively, with a relatively rigid supply-demand gap [5]. Demand Side - Antimony demand is expected to decline in 2025 due to reduced production in photovoltaic glass and inventory adjustments. However, traditional demand from flame retardants and lead-acid batteries is anticipated to remain stable [5]. - July saw domestic photovoltaic glass production drop to 2.09 million tons, a 21% decrease month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [4]. Price Trends - As of August 22, domestic antimony concentrate prices remained stable at 152,000 yuan/ton, while antimony ingot prices were 179,000 yuan/ton. The external market price was 493,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3% decrease from early August [2]. - The company expects that the tightening of antimony exports may be nearing its end, and a return to normal purchasing patterns in photovoltaic glass could enhance price elasticity [6]. Import and Export Dynamics - In July, antimony concentrate imports were 2,307 tons, a 63% decrease year-on-year but a 26% increase month-on-month. The average import price was 35,400 yuan/ton, up 48% month-on-month [3]. - Antimony oxide exports were 74 tons in July, continuing a low trend, significantly below the levels seen earlier in the year [3].