证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 08 26 年 月 日 小金属 锑：7 月供应大幅下滑，锑品出口收紧或接近尾声 价格：截至 8 月 22 日，据亚洲金属网，国内锑精矿价格 15.2 万元/吨， 较 8 月初持平，内盘锑锭价格 17.9 万元/吨，较 8 月初持平，外盘锑锭价 格 49.3 万元/吨（含税），较 8 月初跌 3%，内外盘价差 31 万元/吨。 进出口：7 月锑品出口延续低位，进口原料成本抬升。7 月锑精矿进口 2307 吨，同环比-63%/+26%，1-7 月锑精矿进口 2.02 万吨，同比-37%；7 月 进口均价为 3.54 万元/吨，环比+48%。7 月氧化锑出口 74 吨，上月为 87 吨，连续 3 个月维持百吨级出口，大幅低于上半年有限放开时千吨级出口 水平；未锻轧锑本月无出口。 消费转淡叠加成本压力，7 月锑品产量大幅下滑。供给端：7 月国内锑锭 产量 3729 吨，同环比-36%/-25%；1-7 月锑锭产量 4.03 万吨，同比-6%。 7 月国内焦锑酸钠产量 1915 吨，同环比-41%/-2%；1-7 月焦锑酸钠产量 1.35 万吨，同比-47 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic antimony price has experienced a significant increase, with the average price of antimony concentrate reaching 172,800 yuan per ton by the end of May 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 113.3% [2][6]. Price Trends - Antimony prices have been on a rapid upward trend since mid-February 2025, with continuous increases in March and sustained high levels in May [2]. - As of the end of May, the average price of antimony ingots was 194,500 yuan per ton, up 100.7% year-on-year, with a peak price of 240,000 yuan per ton [7]. - The average price of antimony oxide reached 174,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 103.6% [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The antimony market has been characterized by tight supply since early 2025, with a notable rebound in prices from mid-February to mid-April [6][12]. - Exports of antimony products have significantly declined, with no exports of antimony ore and a 59.3% decrease in antimony oxide exports from January to April [13]. - Imports of antimony concentrate also fell by 28.26% during the same period, indicating a tightening supply situation domestically [15]. Future Outlook - The domestic antimony market is expected to continue experiencing high prices due to ongoing supply constraints and reduced imports [16][18]. - The demand for antimony is supported by growth in key downstream applications, particularly in synthetic rubber, solar cells, and electric vehicles, which have all seen double-digit growth [16]. - The overall economic environment, including the impact of protectionist trade policies, is anticipated to influence the antimony market, but China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience with a recovery in the PMI [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend in antimony prices, driven by supply constraints and demand dynamics, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector and flame retardants [2][3][5]. Group 1: Antimony Price Trends - On March 13, 2025, the price of antimony ingots (0, Sb≥99.90%, domestic) reached 173,000 yuan/ton, with a 19% increase from February 6 to March 13, 2025 [2]. - The antimony price center has shifted upwards, with domestic prices rising from 84,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2024 to 160,000 yuan/ton by June 28, 2024, despite a slight decline in the second half of the year [3]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The supply of antimony from the Polar Gold mine is expected to continue declining, with a projected production of 12,700 tons in 2024, a 53% year-on-year decrease, accounting for only 10% of global antimony production [4]. - The company's inventory value for antimony dropped significantly from 2.2 million dollars in 2023 to 100,000 dollars in 2024, indicating substantial sales of existing inventory [4]. Group 3: Demand Outlook - Domestic demand for antimony is expected to remain high, driven by the brominated flame retardant sector, with household appliances accounting for 22% of this demand in 2021 [5]. - The photovoltaic sector is also showing signs of recovery, with daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increasing by 8.2% to 86,800 tons as of March 7, 2025, compared to the low point in February [5]. Group 4: Global Supply-Demand Gap - The global supply of antimony is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.4% from 2024 to 2027, while demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.4%, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap [7].