Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates a significant decline in antimony production from Polar Gold, with expectations of continued low output in the coming years, impacting cash costs and pricing dynamics in the antimony market [1][3]. Group 1: Antimony Production Trends - Polar Gold's antimony production is projected to drop sharply from 27,100 tons in 2023 to 12,700 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53% and a reduction in global market share from 26% to 13% [2]. - In the first half of 2024, Polar Gold's antimony production is expected to be 8,616 tons, while the second half is projected to be 4,056 tons, leading to annualized global market shares of 17% and 8% respectively [2]. Group 2: Antimony Pricing Dynamics - Antimony prices experienced a significant increase from January 1 to April 17, 2025, rising from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton, a 68% increase, driven by low inventory and strong demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector [4]. - Following this peak, prices fell to 183,000 CNY/ton by September 8, 2025, due to high prices leading to negative feedback on demand and a crackdown on smuggling by the government [4]. Group 3: Export and Market Outlook - In 2023, China's antimony exports accounted for 35% of its production, but there was a significant decline in export volumes from May to July 2025, with only 159, 87, and 74 tons exported in those months, respectively [5]. - The Chinese government is expected to gradually restore compliant antimony exports, which could lead to a rebound in domestic prices [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch in the antimony sector include Huaxi Nonferrous (603301.SH), Hunan Gold (002155.SZ), and Huayu Mining (601020.SH) [6].

Core Viewpoint - The antimony industry is facing supply pressure due to declining demand and rising import costs, leading to a significant drop in domestic production in July. The long-term outlook remains positive for antimony prices due to strong fundamentals and geopolitical factors [1][4][6]. Supply Side - Domestic antimony ingot production in July was 3,729 tons, a decrease of 36% year-on-year and 25% month-on-month. From January to July, production totaled 40,300 tons, down 6% year-on-year [4]. - The supply forecast for antimony from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 112,000 tons, 119,000 tons, and 127,000 tons respectively, with a relatively rigid supply-demand gap [5]. Demand Side - Antimony demand is expected to decline in 2025 due to reduced production in photovoltaic glass and inventory adjustments. However, traditional demand from flame retardants and lead-acid batteries is anticipated to remain stable [5]. - July saw domestic photovoltaic glass production drop to 2.09 million tons, a 21% decrease month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [4]. Price Trends - As of August 22, domestic antimony concentrate prices remained stable at 152,000 yuan/ton, while antimony ingot prices were 179,000 yuan/ton. The external market price was 493,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3% decrease from early August [2]. - The company expects that the tightening of antimony exports may be nearing its end, and a return to normal purchasing patterns in photovoltaic glass could enhance price elasticity [6]. Import and Export Dynamics - In July, antimony concentrate imports were 2,307 tons, a 63% decrease year-on-year but a 26% increase month-on-month. The average import price was 35,400 yuan/ton, up 48% month-on-month [3]. - Antimony oxide exports were 74 tons in July, continuing a low trend, significantly below the levels seen earlier in the year [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply of antimony is expected to continue declining due to reduced production from major mines, while demand from photovoltaic glass is projected to decrease in 2025. However, traditional demand from flame retardants and lead-acid batteries is expected to remain stable [3][37] - The report suggests that the recent tightening of antimony exports may be nearing its end, and a return to normal purchasing patterns in the photovoltaic sector could enhance price elasticity [3][41] - The long-term outlook for antimony prices is positive, driven by strong supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors that may amplify supply-demand imbalances [3][41] Supply and Demand Summary - In July, domestic antimony ingot production was 3,729 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36% and a month-on-month decrease of 25%. For the first seven months of the year, production totaled 40,300 tons, down 6% year-on-year [2][23] - The report updates the supply-demand balance for 2025-2027, forecasting supply to be 11.2, 11.9, and 12.7 million tons, while demand is expected to be 13.1, 13.9, and 14.8 million tons, indicating a persistent supply-demand gap [3][39] - The report highlights that July antimony ore imports were 2,307 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37%, while the average import price rose by 48% month-on-month to 35,400 yuan per ton [12][23] Price Outlook - As of August 22, domestic antimony concentrate prices remained stable at 152,000 yuan per ton, while external prices decreased by 3% to 493,000 yuan per ton. The price gap between domestic and external markets is 310,000 yuan per ton [10][12] - The report anticipates that the antimony industry will experience a high price run in the medium to long term due to its strategic metal attributes and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3][41] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on mining companies with quality resources that are likely to benefit from the upward trend in the antimony industry, specifically mentioning Huayu Mining and Huaxi Nonferrous [4][41]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic antimony price has experienced a significant increase, with the average price of antimony concentrate reaching 172,800 yuan per ton by the end of May 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 113.3% [2][6]. Price Trends - Antimony prices have been on a rapid upward trend since mid-February 2025, with continuous increases in March and sustained high levels in May [2]. - As of the end of May, the average price of antimony ingots was 194,500 yuan per ton, up 100.7% year-on-year, with a peak price of 240,000 yuan per ton [7]. - The average price of antimony oxide reached 174,800 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 103.6% [8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The antimony market has been characterized by tight supply since early 2025, with a notable rebound in prices from mid-February to mid-April [6][12]. - Exports of antimony products have significantly declined, with no exports of antimony ore and a 59.3% decrease in antimony oxide exports from January to April [13]. - Imports of antimony concentrate also fell by 28.26% during the same period, indicating a tightening supply situation domestically [15]. Future Outlook - The domestic antimony market is expected to continue experiencing high prices due to ongoing supply constraints and reduced imports [16][18]. - The demand for antimony is supported by growth in key downstream applications, particularly in synthetic rubber, solar cells, and electric vehicles, which have all seen double-digit growth [16]. - The overall economic environment, including the impact of protectionist trade policies, is anticipated to influence the antimony market, but China's manufacturing sector has shown resilience with a recovery in the PMI [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising trend in antimony prices, driven by supply constraints and demand dynamics, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector and flame retardants [2][3][5]. Group 1: Antimony Price Trends - On March 13, 2025, the price of antimony ingots (0, Sb≥99.90%, domestic) reached 173,000 yuan/ton, with a 19% increase from February 6 to March 13, 2025 [2]. - The antimony price center has shifted upwards, with domestic prices rising from 84,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2024 to 160,000 yuan/ton by June 28, 2024, despite a slight decline in the second half of the year [3]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The supply of antimony from the Polar Gold mine is expected to continue declining, with a projected production of 12,700 tons in 2024, a 53% year-on-year decrease, accounting for only 10% of global antimony production [4]. - The company's inventory value for antimony dropped significantly from 2.2 million dollars in 2023 to 100,000 dollars in 2024, indicating substantial sales of existing inventory [4]. Group 3: Demand Outlook - Domestic demand for antimony is expected to remain high, driven by the brominated flame retardant sector, with household appliances accounting for 22% of this demand in 2021 [5]. - The photovoltaic sector is also showing signs of recovery, with daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass increasing by 8.2% to 86,800 tons as of March 7, 2025, compared to the low point in February [5]. Group 4: Global Supply-Demand Gap - The global supply of antimony is projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.4% from 2024 to 2027, while demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.4%, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap [7].