证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 供给收缩下游提价，产业链上下游联动推动钨价新高 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属双周报（2026/2/16-2026/2/27） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 | | | 稀土：供给格局紧张下游补库，氧化镨钕突破新高。近两周，氧化镨钕上涨 4.71% 至 89 万元/吨，氧化镝上涨 9.83%至 162 万元/吨，氧化铽上涨 1.56%至 652.5 万元 / ...

国金证券近日发布有色金属行业小金属双周报：氧化镨钕本期价格为84.98万元/吨，环比上涨13.51%。 氧化镝本期价格145.0万元/吨，环比上涨9.02%；氧化铽本期价格646.0万元/吨，环比上涨5.90%。近期 价格持续新高，我们认为或与2024-2025年发布的供给侧文件相关性较大，行业供改持续推进。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本期（2.2-2.13，下同）申万小金属指数收39286.62点，环比上涨3.25%，跑赢申万有色指数10.21pcts， 跑赢沪深300指数4.23pcts。 稀土：氧化镨钕本期价格为84.98万元/吨，环比上涨13.51%。氧化镝本期价格145.0万元/吨，环比上涨 9.02%；氧化铽本期价格646.0万元/吨，环比上涨5.90%。近期价格持续新高，我们认为或与2024-2025 年发布的供给侧文件相关性较大，行业供改持续推进。中钇富铕矿加工费进一步上涨至4.1万元/吨，表 明冶炼出清、格局优化或持续兑现。12月我国稀土永磁出口量环比/同比分别-3%/+7%，单月出口量创 历史同期新高；2025年全年同比-1%，表明海外仍有较大补库需求。稀土板块将继续演化估值业绩双 升，202 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the small metals sector, with the Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index rising by 3.25% during the period, outperforming both the Shenwan Nonferrous Index and the CSI 300 Index by 10.21 percentage points and 4.23 percentage points, respectively [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of rare earth elements have reached new highs, driven by supply-side reforms and increasing overseas inventory demand. The prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 13.51%, dysprosium oxide by 9.02%, and terbium oxide by 5.90% [3][18][19]. - Tin prices have shown volatility, with a decrease of 10.74% in the current period. The potential ban on tin raw material exports from Indonesia may create significant replenishment demand for tin processing companies, positively impacting tin prices in the long term [4][28]. - Tungsten prices have increased significantly, with tungsten concentrate rising by 15.99% and ammonium paratungstate by 15.11%. The report suggests that the strategic reserve initiatives in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority in global markets [4][40]. - Antimony prices have shown a slight increase, with antimony ingot prices up by 0.62% and antimony concentrate by 2.13%. The report anticipates a recovery in exports, which could lead to a price rebound [5][47]. - Molybdenum prices have stabilized, with molybdenum concentrate prices increasing by 2.97% and ferromolybdenum by 3.33%. The report notes that low inventory levels and increased defense spending may support further price increases [6][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index closed at 39,286.62 points, reflecting a 3.25% increase [2][13]. - Commodity prices for rare earths, tungsten, and molybdenum have shown upward trends, while tin prices have decreased [16]. 2. Main Product Fundamentals and Insights 2.1 Rare Earths - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reforms and the rising prices of rare earths, with significant export demand expected to continue [3][18][19]. 2.2 Tin - The potential export ban from Indonesia could lead to increased demand for tin processing, positively affecting prices in the long run [4][28]. 2.3 Tungsten - The report highlights the strategic importance of tungsten in global markets, with prices rising significantly due to supply constraints and increased military spending [4][40]. 2.4 Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to recover as export conditions improve, with a focus on high-growth resource companies [5][47]. 2.5 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are projected to rise due to low inventory levels and increased demand from the defense sector [6][51].

Core Insights - The antimony industry is characterized by its high industrial value and strategic importance, with antimony being used as an additive in various industrial applications [1] - The antimony supply chain includes upstream mining and selection, midstream smelting and processing, and downstream applications such as flame retardants and batteries [1][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - Antimony is a scarce resource with significant industrial applications, classified as a strategic mineral resource by the government [1] - The antimony supply chain consists of three main segments: upstream (mining and selection), midstream (smelting and processing), and downstream (applications) [1][3] - Key applications of antimony include flame retardants, glass, electronic materials, bearings, gears, and batteries, with the latter allowing for the recycling of antimony [1] Group 2: Key Companies and Production Data - Major upstream companies in the antimony mining sector include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining [3] - In 2024, Hunan Gold is projected to produce 29,209 tons of antimony, a decrease of 6.15% year-on-year, while Huaxi Nonferrous expects a production increase of 9.17% to 15,417.7 tons [10] - Midstream companies such as Hengbang Co. and Zhuhai Group are involved in smelting and processing, with Hengbang Co. reporting revenue of 957 million yuan from related operations in 2024 [10] Group 3: Regional Distribution - The antimony industry is predominantly concentrated in Hunan province, followed by Guangxi, Guangdong, and Jiangxi, with a significant disparity in the number of companies compared to other regions [5][7] - The majority of upstream, midstream, and recycling companies are located in Hunan, with other provinces like Tibet and Guangxi having fewer enterprises [7] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment activities in the antimony sector from 2022 to 2025 highlight ongoing developments and strategic initiatives by key players [11] - Companies are focusing on enhancing production capabilities and exploring new product developments, particularly in high-precision alloys and recycling processes [10]

Group 1 - The rare metals sector experienced a strong rally, with the Zhongzheng Rare Metals Theme Index rising by 1.88% as of 10:27 AM on February 9, 2026, driven by significant gains in stocks such as Shenghe Resources (+9.93%), Yunlu Co. (+5.81%), and China Rare Earth (+5.76%) [1] - Recent price increases in antimony ingots (+2.49%) and antimony concentrates (+1.40%) are attributed to supply disruptions caused by a fire at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry, which is expected to reduce production by over 2,000 tons [1] - The demand for antimony is anticipated to rise post-Spring Festival due to the traditional peak season for flame retardant materials, alongside expectations of improved capacity utilization in photovoltaic glass and a recovery in exports [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities maintains a positive outlook on strategic metal investment opportunities characterized by resource scarcity and supply rigidity, emphasizing the importance of these metals in the context of global technological revolutions and strategic resource nationalism [2] - The demand for strategic metals is expected to increase significantly due to changes in the demand structure driven by new technologies, with sectors such as new energy, new materials, and artificial intelligence leading this demand surge [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Rare Metals Theme Index accounted for 59.71% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium [2] Group 3 - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) tracks the Zhongzheng Rare Metals Theme Index, providing a convenient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare metals sector [3] - Investors can also consider the Rare Metals ETF linked fund (014111) to explore investment opportunities in the rare metals sector [4]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton [1][14] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 4.03% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons [1][14] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises is expected to drop by 28.52% to 38.36% next week due to the upcoming Spring Festival [1][14] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton [2][15] - Domestic aluminum rod inventory increased by 15,000 tons week-on-week, reaching 258,500 tons [2][15] - The overall aluminum processing operating rate recorded 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a significant divergence within the sector [2][15] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, while the 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 1.88% [3][16] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 10.87 tons to 1,076.23 tons, reflecting market dynamics influenced by geopolitical risks [3][16] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level in nearly four years, indicating rising concerns over inflation and fiscal deficits [3][16] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 1.20% this week, with December exports of rare earth permanent magnets showing a year-on-year increase of 7% [4][35] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand for rare earths [4][35] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten price increased by 11.98% this week, driven by tight supply conditions and increased strategic reserves in the U.S. [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" by U.S. lawmakers is expected to elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - Recommended companies include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4][38] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 13.3% to ¥148,000 per ton, while lithium hydroxide fell by 11.6% to ¥150,000 per ton [4][53] - Total lithium carbonate production this week was 20,700 tons, reflecting a slight decrease [4][53] - Market sentiment remains cautious as downstream purchasing activity is expected to slow down as inventory levels stabilize [4][53] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices remained stable [5][54] - The market for cobalt intermediates is characterized by limited transactions, with prices holding steady amid geopolitical supply concerns [5][54] - Long-term structural shortages in raw materials may support future price increases [5][54]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The supply tightness in the rare earth sector is increasing, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide reaching new highs, up 12.64% to 757,500 CNY/ton [4] - Molybdenum prices have rebounded due to improved supply-demand dynamics, with molybdenum concentrate prices rising 2.48% to 4,135 CNY/ton [21] - Tungsten prices continue to hit historical highs, with black tungsten concentrate prices increasing 25.19% to 671,000 CNY/ton [27] - Tin prices have seen significant adjustments, with SHFE tin down 16.89% to 357,000 CNY/ton [30] - Antimony prices are experiencing a rebound, with antimony ingot prices up 2.49% to 164,500 CNY/ton [39] Summary by Category Rare Earth - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 12.64% to 757,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium prices decreased by 1.41% to 140,000 CNY/ton and 2.37% to 617,500 CNY/ton respectively [9][4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices rose 2.48% to 4,135 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices increased 3.48% to 267,500 CNY/ton [21][4] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices surged 25.19% to 671,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose 24.68% to 985,000 CNY/ton [27][4] Tin - SHFE tin prices fell 16.89% to 357,000 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices decreased 15.42% to 45,845 USD/ton [30][4] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices increased by 2.49% to 164,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices rose 1.40% to 144,500 CNY/ton [39][4]

Group 1: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is 748,700 CNY/ton, an increase of 11.03% month-on-month [3] - The price of dysprosium oxide is 1,330,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 10.74% month-on-month [3] - The price of terbium oxide is 6,100,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 4.98% month-on-month [3] - The processing fee for yttrium-rich europium ore has risen to 41,000 CNY/ton, indicating ongoing optimization in the smelting industry [3] - December's rare earth permanent magnet exports decreased by 3% month-on-month but increased by 7% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the month [3] - The rare earth sector is expected to see valuation and performance improvements, with 2026 being a critical year for resolving industry competition [3] Group 2: Tin - The price of tin ingots is 423,600 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.17% month-on-month [4] - The upward price trend is supported by lower-than-expected supply from Indonesia and Myanmar [4] - The demand side is expected to benefit from AI advancements and the recovery of the semiconductor industry [4] - Recommended stocks include Huaxi Nonferrous Metals and others [4] Group 3: Tungsten - The price of tungsten concentrate is 600,700 CNY/ton, an increase of 19.24% month-on-month [4] - The price of ammonium paratungstate is 890,600 CNY/ton, an increase of 19.49% month-on-month [4] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may increase tungsten's priority [4] - Recommended stocks include Zhongtung High-tech and others [4] Group 4: Antimony - The price of antimony ingots is 164,100 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.26% month-on-month [5] - The price of antimony concentrate is 141,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 2.27% month-on-month [5] - December's antimony exports increased by 4% month-on-month but decreased by 71% year-on-year [5] - The global antimony price trend remains upward due to supply shortages and steady demand [5] Group 5: Molybdenum - The price of molybdenum concentrate is 4,010 CNY/ton, remaining stable month-on-month [6] - The price of molybdenum iron is 256,000 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.79% month-on-month [6] - The ongoing low inventory levels and increased defense spending may further support molybdenum prices [6] - Recommended stocks include Jinduicheng Molybdenum and Guocheng Mining [6]

Investment Ratings - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and aluminum sectors, with expectations of stable production and demand recovery [2][3][13] Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton on LME, while domestic prices rose by 2.31% to 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints and stable production rates are noted, with a slight decrease in operating rates expected due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14] - Aluminum prices rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton on LME, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report highlights a seasonal decline in production rates and a high operating rate in alumina plants, despite a slight increase in inventory levels [3][15] - Gold prices surged by 8.58% to $5,410.8 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices [4][16] - The rare earth sector shows a positive trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by 11.30%. The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook due to easing export restrictions [5][34] - Tungsten prices rose by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. and increasing demand in military applications [5][36] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton, with domestic prices at 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints are evident, with a decrease in copper processing fees [2][14] - Operating rates for copper cable enterprises increased to 59.46%, indicating stable production driven by prior orders [2][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report notes a decrease in operating rates due to seasonal factors [3][15] - The overall aluminum processing rate recorded at 59.4%, reflecting a seasonal decline in demand [3][15] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold price reaching $5,410.8 per ounce. The report discusses the implications of U.S. monetary policy on gold market dynamics [4][16] Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 11.30%, with expectations of increased demand due to favorable export conditions [5][34] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the rare earth sector driven by supply constraints and demand recovery [5][34] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives and military demand [5][36] - The report suggests that the tungsten sector may benefit from ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending [5][36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The supply-demand tension continues, with tungsten and tin prices breaking historical highs [4] - Rare earth elements are experiencing a supply tightness, leading to increased prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which rose by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton [12] - Molybdenum prices are expected to stabilize due to cost support and improved supply-demand dynamics, despite a recent decline [23] - Tungsten prices are at historical highs due to supply contraction and price increases in long-term contracts [30] - Tin prices are strong due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply disruptions, with SHFE tin rising by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton [33] - Antimony prices are fluctuating, awaiting signals for export recovery, with recent increases noted [42] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium decreased by 1.39% to 1,420,000 CNY/ton [12][4] - The supply side remains tight due to policy and supply constraints, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies has shifted from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling [4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices fell by 1.94% to 4,035 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron prices decreased by 1.90% to 258,500 CNY/ton [23] - The market sentiment is supported by a stabilization in international molybdenum oxide prices and reduced mine shipments [23] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 11.43% to 536,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 12.06% to 790,000 CNY/ton [30] - Supply is tightening due to reduced mining quotas and slower production rates, while domestic demand remains stable [30] Tin - SHFE tin prices increased by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices rose by 21.73% to 54,200 USD/ton [33] - Supply disruptions from key mining regions and strong demand from traditional and emerging sectors are driving price increases [33] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices rose by 1.26% to 160,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increased by 1.42% to 142,500 CNY/ton [42] - The supply remains tight, and demand is expected to decline as the market approaches the Lunar New Year [42]