证券研究报告 小金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 14 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 项祈瑞 SAC：S1350524040002 xiangqirui@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 供给收缩叠加 12 月长单价上调，推动钨价再创历史新高 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——小金属双周报（2025/12/1-2025/12/12） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 稀土：供需相对平衡，氧化镨钕震荡反弹。近两周，氧化镨钕上涨 2.21%至 57.9 万 元/吨，氧化镝下跌 7.43%至 137 万元/吨，氧化铽下跌 3.75%至 628 万元/吨。供给 端 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and rare earths, indicating high market activity and potential for growth [12][33][34]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton on LME, with domestic prices rising by 6.12% to 92,800 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and high demand [1][13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton on LME, with domestic prices up 3.4% to 22,300 yuan per ton, reflecting stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2][14]. - Gold prices decreased by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and market volatility, while SPDR gold holdings increased [3][15]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, rose by 2.79%, with expectations of increased demand due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][34]. - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the outlook remains positive due to anticipated recovery in exports [4][35]. - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, supported by low inventory levels and supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar [4][36]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 92,800 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply constraints are evident with a decrease in copper inventory and processing fees [1][13]. - Downstream demand is weakening due to high prices, leading to a decline in new orders [1][13]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton, with domestic prices at 22,300 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Inventory levels remain stable, but processing rates have decreased slightly [2][14]. - Demand is cautious due to high prices affecting transaction volumes [2][14]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, with geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating a slight uptick in investor interest [3][15]. Rare Earths - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased by 2.79%, with expectations of higher demand due to supply constraints [4][34]. - Export conditions are improving, contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [4][34]. Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to potential export recovery [4][35]. Tin - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, driven by low inventory levels and supply disruptions [4][36].

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：601020 证券简称：华钰矿业 公告编号：临2025-065号 西藏华钰矿业股份有限公司 关于2025年第三季度业绩说明会召开情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 西藏华钰矿业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"华钰矿业"）于2025年12月2日（星期二）上午10:00- 11:00在上证所信息网络有限公司上证路演中心平台（http://roadshow.sseinfo.com，以下简称"上证路演中 心"）通过网络文字互动的形式召开了"华钰矿业2025年第三季度业绩说明会"，现将具体情况公告如 下： 一、本次业绩说明会召开情况 公司于2025年12月2日（星期二）上午10:00-11:00召开了"公司2025年第三季度业绩说明会"，公司董事 长刘良坤先生、独立董事何佳先生、总经理陈旭先生、财务总监邢建军先生、董事会秘书李想先生出席 了本次业绩说明会，与投资者进行网络互动交流和沟通。本次投资者说明会召开前，公司已通过公司投 资者关系信箱（huayu ...

Group 1: Rare Earths - The supply and demand for rare earths are both weak, with neodymium oxide prices rebounding by 3.94% to 566,500 CNY/ton [1] - Dysprosium oxide prices decreased by 1.99% to 1,480,000 CNY/ton, while terbium oxide prices fell by 0.84% to 6,525,000 CNY/ton [1] - Some production companies are controlling output due to cost pressures, and the recent raw material supply tightness has eased [1] - Downstream magnetic material companies have not seen a significant increase in order volumes, maintaining low demand levels, with price fluctuations expected [1] - Recommended companies to watch include Guangsheng Nonferrous, China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, Jieli Permanent Magnet, Ningbo Yunsheng, and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials [1] Group 2: Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with molybdenum concentrate prices down by 2.69% to 3,615 CNY/ton and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices down by 1.26% to 235,500 CNY/ton [2] - Supply signals for molybdenum concentrate are showing signs of contraction, while weak terminal demand is dragging down industry profitability [2] - The industry is facing a supply-demand tug-of-war, with short-term price adjustments expected [2] - Recommended company to watch is Jintong Molybdenum [2] Group 3: Tungsten - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs due to supply contraction and price increases for long-term contracts, with black tungsten concentrate prices up by 6.96% to 338,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate prices up by 4.10% to 495,000 CNY/ton [2] - The reduction in tungsten concentrate mining quotas and slowed production rates are tightening industry circulation [2] - Domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential purchases, with PCB tool demand showing positive trends [2] - Companies to watch include Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, Xianglu Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten [2] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices are strengthening due to ongoing supply disruptions, with SHFE tin prices up by 4.66% to 305,000 CNY/ton and LME tin prices up by 5.97% to 39,100 USD/ton [3] - Supply-side issues include deteriorating safety conditions in major tin mining areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo and ongoing crackdowns on illegal mining in Indonesia [3] - Traditional consumer electronics demand is weak, while emerging fields like AI are performing well, leading to strong price expectations [3] - Recommended companies to watch are Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xingye Silver Tin [3] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony prices are showing signs of bottom reversal, with antimony ingot prices up by 9.52% to 172,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices up by 10.75% to 154,500 CNY/ton [3] - Antimony ingot production has rebounded, but overall operating rates remain low due to raw material shortages [3] - Expectations for export recovery are boosting terminal purchasing confidence, with tight inventories for antimony ore and ingots [3] - Companies to watch include Huaxi Nonferrous, Hunan Gold, and Huayu Mining [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The antimony industry is expected to enter a strong prosperity cycle due to a mismatch in supply and demand growth rates [4][8] - China's antimony resource reserves account for 30% of the global total, with a significant increase in reserves from 480,000 tons in 2020 to 670,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 8.7% [4][18] - Global antimony production is highly concentrated, with China accounting for 58% of the total production in 2024, although production has been declining [5][23] - The demand for antimony is projected to grow significantly, driven by the rapid development of photovoltaic installations and the increasing use of antimony in glass for solar panels [6][42] Summary by Sections 1. Antimony Supply Dynamics - Antimony supply is experiencing an unexpected contraction, with China's environmental and export restrictions contributing to a rigid supply growth characteristic [8][27] - The global antimony supply is expected to decline from 137,000 tons in 2024 to 129,000 tons by 2027, with a CAGR of -2% [30][57] - China's reliance on imported antimony concentrates is high, with approximately 45.7% of the supply coming from imports in 2024 [28][31] 2. Antimony Demand Growth - Global antimony consumption is projected to increase by 10.8% year-on-year to 166,000 tons in 2024, with the fastest growth in demand coming from photovoltaic glass [6][45] - The demand for antimony in photovoltaic glass is expected to grow from 49,000 tons in 2024 to 90,000 tons by 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 22% [43][49] - The overall global antimony demand is anticipated to rise from 166,000 tons in 2024 to 224,000 tons by 2027, with a CAGR of 11% [45][50] 3. Supply-Demand Gap and Price Outlook - The supply-demand gap for antimony is expected to widen significantly, with projected deficits of 2.8 million tons in 2024 and increasing to 9.5 million tons by 2027 [51][58] - The tightening supply conditions and increasing demand are likely to push antimony prices into an upward trajectory, with potential price increases of up to 56% anticipated [52][52] - The report highlights that changes in China's export policies could fundamentally alter the global antimony trade flow and pricing dynamics [10][52] 4. Related Companies - Companies mentioned in the report include Huayu Mining, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Hunan Gold [11][59]

Summary of Alkane Resources Conference Call Company Overview - Alkane Resources is a mid-tier Australian gold company with three operating assets: - Tomingley mine in New South Wales (75,000-80,000 ounces production for the year) - Costerfield mine in Victoria (45,000-50,000 ounces production for the year) - Björkdal mine in Sweden (40,000-45,000 ounces production for the year) [1][2] Financial Position - Strong balance sheet with approximately AUD 160 million in cash and AUD 15 million in bullion - Debt-free except for equipment finance [1][2] - Guidance for the year is 160,000-175,000 ounces equivalent production - All-in sustaining costs are approximately USD 1,600-1,650 at Tomingley and Costerfield, and USD 2,700 at Björkdal [2][3] Growth Prospects - Significant growth projects at Tomingley and Costerfield, focusing on open cuts and drilling to expand reserves, respectively [3][4] - Tomingley has a mine life of seven years, with ongoing exploration expected to yield additional resources [4][5] - Costerfield is noted for high-grade gold and antimony, with ongoing drilling expected to add 50,000-100,000 ounces to reserves [6][8] Production and Cost Management - Last quarter production was just under 40,000 ounces equivalent, with an all-in cost of about AUD 3,000 per ounce [3] - Expected cash generation for the current quarter is between AUD 45 million and AUD 50 million [4] - Alkane has a strong track record of meeting production guidance, having only missed once in the last 13 years [14] Future Development Projects - Botokaisa project in Australia has potential for 15 million ounces equivalent, with a pre-feasibility study already completed [12] - Plans to submit for approval by 2027, with ongoing environmental studies and community engagement [13] Market Position and Strategy - Alkane is the largest supplier of antimony in the Western world, contributing 6% of revenue [10] - Actively seeking inorganic growth opportunities in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the U.S., and Scandinavia, targeting mines with production capabilities of 70,000-120,000 ounces [16][17] - Increased liquidity with daily trading volumes of AUD 6 million-AUD 8 million, allowing larger funds to invest [17] Conclusion - Alkane Resources is in a strong financial position with significant growth potential across its assets, a solid production track record, and plans for future development projects. The company is actively seeking to expand its operations and improve its market position while maintaining a focus on cost management and cash generation [18]

Group 1: Tungsten Market - Black tungsten concentrate price increased by 12.23% to 312,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate price rose by 13.30% to 460,000 CNY/ton [1][3] - Supply side shows a reduction in tungsten concentrate mining indicators, with mines generally slowing production pace, leading to tighter industry circulation [1][3] - Domestic demand remains stable, primarily driven by essential procurement, with recent APT procurement prices for early November rising by 52,000 CNY/ton, boosting market bullish sentiment [1][3] Group 2: Rare Earth Market - Rare earth supply and demand are both weak, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 10.49% to 553,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide increased by 1.63% to 1,560,000 CNY/ton [2] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced new export controls on rare earth items and technologies, targeting violations of existing measures [2] - Supply side sees some production companies controlling output due to cost pressures, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies remains low [2] Group 3: Molybdenum Market - Molybdenum concentrate price decreased by 9.78% to 3,965 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron price fell by 7.62% to 254,500 CNY/ton [2] - Supply side indicates signs of shrinking molybdenum concentrate, while demand from steel procurement is increasing but facing price pressure from steel mills [2] Group 4: Tin Market - Tin prices are experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with SHFE tin down by 0.28% to 283,500 CNY/ton and LME tin up by 0.35% to 36,100 USD/ton [3] - Supply side affected by low operating rates of refining tin smelting enterprises due to raw material shortages from Myanmar [3] - High tin prices are leading to low replenishment willingness in the electronics and home appliance sectors, with downstream manufacturers primarily engaging in essential procurement [3] Group 5: Antimony Market - Antimony ingot price decreased by 6.27% to 149,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate price fell by 7.07% to 131,500 CNY/ton [4] - Supply side sees tight domestic antimony raw materials due to a halt in overseas mines entering the domestic market, coupled with weak smelting profitability [4] - Demand remains focused on essential procurement, with strong demand in the photovoltaic sector, while short-term export demand is under pressure [4] Group 6: Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion is accelerating, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [5] - Domestic advancements include breakthroughs in the localization of second-generation high-temperature superconducting strips [5] - Internationally, significant investments and reports on fusion research are emerging, indicating a growing interest in the sector [5]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a mixed supply and demand situation in the rare earth sector, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by 10.49% to 553,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide rose by 1.63% to 1,560,000 CNY/ton. However, terbium oxide saw a decline of 1.71% to 6,625,000 CNY/ton [4][11] - Molybdenum prices are experiencing fluctuations, with molybdenum concentrate prices dropping by 9.78% to 3,965 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices decreasing by 7.62% to 254,500 CNY/ton [4][20] - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs due to supply constraints and price increases in long-term contracts, with black tungsten concentrate prices rising by 12.23% to 312,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate prices increasing by 13.30% to 460,000 CNY/ton [4][28] - Tin prices are fluctuating with SHFE tin down by 0.28% to 283,510 CNY/ton, while LME tin increased by 0.35% to 36,050 USD/ton [4][32] - Antimony prices are under pressure, with antimony ingot prices falling by 6.27% to 149,500 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices down by 7.07% to 131,500 CNY/ton [4][40] - The report notes that the controllable nuclear fusion industry is accelerating commercialization, with upstream materials expected to benefit significantly [4][5] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Supply and demand are weak, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices rising by 10.49% to 553,000 CNY/ton [4][11] - The report suggests monitoring companies like Guangsheng Youse and China Rare Earth [4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices decreased by 9.78% to 3,965 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron prices fell by 7.62% to 254,500 CNY/ton [4][20] - Suggested company to watch: Jinduicheng Molybdenum [4] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices increased by 12.23% to 312,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices rose by 13.30% to 460,000 CNY/ton [4][28] - Recommended companies include Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4] Tin - SHFE tin prices fell by 0.28% to 283,510 CNY/ton, while LME tin prices rose by 0.35% to 36,050 USD/ton [4][32] - Companies to focus on: Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Silver Tin [4] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices dropped by 6.27% to 149,500 CNY/ton, and concentrate prices fell by 7.07% to 131,500 CNY/ton [4][40] - Companies to monitor include Huaxi Silver and Hunan Gold [4] Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion is accelerating, with significant benefits expected for upstream materials [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Rare earth prices have experienced fluctuations, with a notable decline in praseodymium and neodymium oxide by 10.22% to 500,500 CNY/ton, while tungsten prices have rebounded due to supply constraints and price adjustments [5][6] - The controlled fusion new materials sector is accelerating towards commercialization, with significant advancements in technology and international collaborations [6] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price adjustments include a 10.22% drop in praseodymium and neodymium oxide to 500,500 CNY/ton, a 5.25% drop in dysprosium oxide to 1,535,000 CNY/ton, and a 4.06% drop in terbium oxide to 6,740,000 CNY/ton [5][12] - The demand side shows weakening terminal demand, with major manufacturers primarily purchasing based on essential needs [5] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices increased by 0.46% to 4,395 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices decreased by 0.18% to 275,500 CNY/ton [24] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 3.73% to 278,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 3.70% to 406,000 CNY/ton [29] Tin - SHFE tin prices fell by 0.72% to 284,300 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices decreased by 1.58% to 35,925 USD/ton [34] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices declined by 4.78% to 159,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices fell by 5.35% to 141,500 CNY/ton [45] Controlled Fusion New Materials - The domestic controlled fusion industry is witnessing rapid commercialization, with significant breakthroughs in energy extraction technology and international collaborations [6]