( 图片来源：《澳华财经在线》) 【财经要闻及评论】 COMEX黄金期货价格触及每盎司4000美元大关 再度刷新历史新高 黄金投资热潮愈演愈烈 中国国庆和中秋长假期间，黄金走势强劲再度创出历史新高。 周二，COMEX黄金期货价格延续周一升势，亚洲时段早盘一度冲上每盎司4000美元大关，折合澳元约 6000澳元/盎司。 全球顶级投行高盛最新表示，由于资金流入，该机构已将2026年底黄金价格预测大幅上调至每盎司4900 美元，此前该机构预测年底黄金价格为4500美元。 高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven指出，自8月26日以来黄金17%的涨势主要由两大"粘性"资金流 入推动：西方ETF资金流入和央行购买。 据相关媒体报道，高盛在近期发布的报告中提到，近期金价上涨的主要驱动力来自快速增长的西方黄金 ETF仓位、各国央行可能重新加速购买，以及投机仓位的提升。据报道，欧美市场黄金ETF的配置在九 月份意外强劲。 据新浪财经援引的《第一财经》报道，中国央行本周二公布的数据显示，中国9月末黄金储备7406万盎 司，为连续第11个月增持黄金，8月末黄金储备报7402万盎司。 上述包括央行在内的买家持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent contract awarded to U.S. Antimony Corporation (USAC) by the U.S. Department of Defense for the supply of antimony metal ingots, highlighting the strategic importance of antimony in the supply chain and its price fluctuations in 2025 [4][6]. Group 1: Contract and Supply Chain Security - U.S. Antimony Corporation has secured a five-year exclusive contract with the U.S. Department of Defense, with a maximum supply value of $245 million for antimony metal ingots [4]. - The contract reflects U.S. concerns over supply chain security for antimony, which is classified as a critical mineral by the U.S. and other countries [6]. Group 2: Antimony Price Trends - Antimony prices experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, rising from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton between January 1 and April 17, marking a 68% increase [7][8]. - Following the peak, prices fell to 176,000 CNY/ton by September 22, attributed to reduced demand and government policies targeting smuggling [8]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - In 2023, China's antimony export volume accounted for 35% of its production, with a notable decline in exports during May to July due to government crackdowns on smuggling [10]. - However, signs of recovery in exports were observed in August, with a significant month-on-month increase [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that American Antimony has secured a significant contract with the U.S. Department of Defense for antimony ingots, with the first delivery expected to be completed this week, highlighting the strategic importance of antimony in the supply chain [1][2] - The contract reflects U.S. concerns over antimony supply chain security and emphasizes the metal's strategic value, as antimony is classified as a critical mineral by multiple countries, including the U.S., EU, and Japan [2][3] Group 2 - Antimony prices experienced fluctuations this year, rising from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton between January 1 and April 17, 2025, a 68% increase, before declining to 176,000 CNY/ton by September 22, 2025, due to high prices leading to negative feedback on demand [3] - The increase in antimony prices was driven by low inventory levels, difficulties in raw material replenishment, and strong demand from the photovoltaic sector, particularly following new policies that boosted demand for photovoltaic glass [3][4] Group 3 - China's antimony export volume accounted for 35% of its production in 2023, but exports significantly declined from May to July 2025 due to government crackdowns on smuggling, with exports recovering to 198 tons in August, a 168% increase month-on-month [4] - The outlook for domestic antimony prices is positive, with expectations of price increases as compliance-based exports resume, despite limited supply growth due to resource constraints [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Insights - The strategic value of antimony has been highlighted by the recent exclusive five-year contract awarded to U.S. Antimony Corporation by the U.S. Department of Defense, with a maximum supply value of $245 million for antimony metal ingots [1][2]. - The contract reflects U.S. concerns over supply chain security for antimony, which is recognized as a critical mineral by multiple countries, including the U.S., EU, and Japan [2]. - Antimony prices experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, with a peak price of 240,000 CNY/ton in April, followed by a decline to 176,000 CNY/ton by September [3][4]. Summary by Sections Antimony Market Dynamics - Antimony prices rose sharply from February to April 2025, increasing by 68% due to low inventory, difficult raw material replenishment, and positive market sentiment, driven by demand from the photovoltaic sector [3]. - A subsequent price correction occurred from April to September 2025, attributed to high prices leading to negative feedback on demand and government policies targeting smuggling, which significantly reduced antimony oxide exports [3][4]. Export Trends and Future Outlook - In 2023, China's antimony export volume accounted for 35% of its production, with a notable decline in exports during the first half of 2025 due to government crackdowns on smuggling [4]. - Recent statements from the Ministry of Commerce indicate a potential recovery in antimony exports, which could lead to an upward adjustment in domestic antimony prices [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for domestic antimony prices in the medium to long term, given the limited supply increase and the anticipated recovery of compliant antimony exports [4]. - Key companies to watch include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential investment opportunities [5].

Group 1: Market Performance - Rare earth concept stocks in the US saw significant activity, with United States Antimony (UAMY.US) rising over 20%, USA Rare Earth (USAR.US) and NioCorp Developments (NB.US) increasing over 5%, TMC the metals (TMC.US) up over 3%, and MP Materials (MP.US) gaining nearly 2% [1] - UAMY announced a contract worth up to $245 million from the US Defense Logistics Agency for the purchase of antimony ingots, which is approximately 16 times its projected revenue for 2024 of $14.9 million [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Antimony is a strategic minor metal with strong resource scarcity, and domestic restrictions on antimony mining are increasing, while overseas mines face resource depletion [2] - The main future global antimony supply increases are expected from Huayu Mining's Tajin project and Russia's Solonechenskoye antimony mine [2] - Traditional demand for antimony in flame retardants, lead-acid batteries, and polyester catalysts is stable, with photovoltaic glass expected to become the second-largest demand sector due to rising installation rates [2] - Polar Gold is a major overseas source of antimony, with production in 2023 at 27,100 tons, accounting for 26% of global output, but expected to drop to 12,700 tons in 2024, reducing its global share to 13% [2] Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Antimony prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term due to tightening supply and recovering exports, with domestic prices likely to increase as compliance with export regulations improves [3] - The cash costs for Polar Gold are projected to rise in 2025, primarily due to a significant drop in antimony production, which is expected to remain low [3] - The overall outlook for antimony prices is positive, with limited supply increases domestically and abroad, supporting a potential upward shift in price levels [3] Group 4: Company Involvement - China Minmetals' subsidiary, Hunan Xikang Mining, controls over 300,000 tons of antimony resources [4] - Jiangxi Copper's product line includes crude antimony and sodium antimonate compounds [5]

Group 1: Antimony Industry - The production of antimony ore by Polar Gold is expected to drop to zero by the first half of 2025, leading to a continued tight supply of antimony [4] - Antimony prices experienced fluctuations this year, primarily influenced by export policies and demand changes, with potential for price increases in the domestic market due to easing export restrictions [4] Group 2: Semiconductor Materials - The rapid growth in AI demand is driving the global semiconductor industry's continued prosperity, with the semiconductor materials market steadily expanding [4] - Key segments such as photoresists, wet electronic chemicals, and specialty gases are all maintaining growth trends, contributing to overall positive performance in the sector [4] Group 3: Electronic Industry - In Q2 2025, the net profit of 652 companies in the A-share electronic industry reached 136.82 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 34% [4] - The top three sub-industries by net profit growth in Q2 2025 were AI supply chain (17.47 billion yuan, +87%), PCB (7 billion yuan, +68%), and Nvidia supply chain (12.86 billion yuan, +67%) [4] Group 4: Huaxin Cement - In the first half of 2025, Huaxin Cement achieved significant growth in net profit, driven by accelerated international expansion and increased revenue from overseas operations [5] Group 5: Antong Oilfield Services - Antong Oilfield Services reported a revenue of 2.63 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.9%, with a net profit of 170 million yuan, up 55.9% [7] - The comprehensive gross margin was 28.7%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 1.2 percentage points to 6.3% [7] Group 6: XCMG Machinery - XCMG Machinery achieved an operating revenue of 54.81 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing an 8.0% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 4.36 billion yuan, up 16.6% [8] - The operating cash flow increased significantly by 107.6% year-on-year to 3.73 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.0%, up 0.7 percentage points [8] Group 7: Apple Inc. - Apple has released its thinnest iPhone to date, with future sales and AI-driven growth strategies being key areas for ongoing monitoring [9] - The external risks that previously suppressed Apple's stock price have begun to dissipate, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the company's stock [9]

Core Viewpoint - The supply of antimony from Polar Gold is expected to remain tight due to a significant decline in production, with the company reporting zero antimony output in the first half of 2025 [4][6]. Group 1: Production Decline - Polar Gold's antimony production dropped from 27,100 tons in 2023, accounting for 26% of global output, to 12,700 tons in 2024, representing a 53% year-on-year decrease and only 13% of global production [5]. - In the first half of 2024, Polar Gold produced 8,616 tons and 4,056 tons in the second half, leading to annualized production proportions of 17% and 8% of global output, respectively [5]. Group 2: Price Fluctuations - Antimony prices experienced a significant increase from January 1 to April 17, 2025, rising from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton, a 68% increase [7][8]. - Following this peak, prices fell to 183,000 CNY/ton between April 17 and September 8, 2025, due to negative feedback from high prices and government policies targeting smuggling [9]. Group 3: Export Dynamics - In 2023, China's antimony exports accounted for 35% of its production, but from May to July 2025, exports of antimony oxide plummeted to 159, 87, and 74 tons, significantly below the normal monthly average [10]. - The Chinese government is expected to gradually restore compliant antimony exports, which may lead to a rebound in domestic prices [10].

Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 28.436 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 87.9% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 656 million yuan, up about 49.7% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 657 million yuan, also reflecting a growth of approximately 49.6% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 15.315 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 109.3%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.7% compared to Q1 2025 [1] - Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders was 323 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.7% [1] Production Data - In H1 2025, the company produced 37,344 kilograms of gold, a year-on-year increase of 37.97%, while antimony production decreased by 19.89% to 12,134 tons, and tungsten production increased by 12.97% to 554 standard tons [2] - Gold production from self-owned mines was 1,722 kilograms, down 12.2% year-on-year, while antimony production from self-owned mines was 7,712 tons, down 5.64% year-on-year; tungsten concentrate production increased by 23.11% to 505 standard tons [2] Price Trends - The London spot gold price increased by 24.31% since the beginning of the year, with an average price in H1 2025 rising by 39.21% year-on-year; the Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 gold price at the end of June also rose by 24.50% [3] - Domestic antimony prices showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the average price of domestic antimony ingots (99.65%) increasing by 83.0% year-on-year, and the average price of antimony trioxide (99.5%) rising by 86.2% year-on-year [3] Resource Development - The company focuses on resource reserves as a "lifeline," emphasizing exploration and reserve increase as core strategies, and is advancing a three-year exploration action plan (2024-2026) to enhance mineral resource security [4] - The company is also actively promoting key engineering projects, with the Gansu Jiaxin mineral resource utilization project successfully launched [4] Mining Rights - As of the end of the reporting period, the company owned and controlled 31 mining rights, including 19 exploration rights and 12 mining rights [5] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 1.585 billion yuan, 1.963 billion yuan, and 2.254 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 87%, 24%, and 15%, respectively [6] - Corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 22.35, 18.05, and 15.72 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities indicates a significant decline in antimony production from Polar Gold, with expectations of continued low output in the coming years, impacting cash costs and pricing dynamics in the antimony market [1][3]. Group 1: Antimony Production Trends - Polar Gold's antimony production is projected to drop sharply from 27,100 tons in 2023 to 12,700 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53% and a reduction in global market share from 26% to 13% [2]. - In the first half of 2024, Polar Gold's antimony production is expected to be 8,616 tons, while the second half is projected to be 4,056 tons, leading to annualized global market shares of 17% and 8% respectively [2]. Group 2: Antimony Pricing Dynamics - Antimony prices experienced a significant increase from January 1 to April 17, 2025, rising from 143,000 CNY/ton to 240,000 CNY/ton, a 68% increase, driven by low inventory and strong demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector [4]. - Following this peak, prices fell to 183,000 CNY/ton by September 8, 2025, due to high prices leading to negative feedback on demand and a crackdown on smuggling by the government [4]. Group 3: Export and Market Outlook - In 2023, China's antimony exports accounted for 35% of its production, but there was a significant decline in export volumes from May to July 2025, with only 159, 87, and 74 tons exported in those months, respectively [5]. - The Chinese government is expected to gradually restore compliant antimony exports, which could lead to a rebound in domestic prices [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch in the antimony sector include Huaxi Nonferrous (603301.SH), Hunan Gold (002155.SZ), and Huayu Mining (601020.SH) [6].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In August 2025, CPI remained flat at 0% month-on-month, while PPI ended a consecutive eight-month decline, indicating a potential turning point for PPI [1] - Core CPI growth has rebounded for four consecutive months due to policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and regulating low-price competition, although overall CPI year-on-year growth fell to -0.4% due to food prices [2] - The PPI is expected to see a slow recovery due to a poor demand environment and market-oriented capacity governance, remaining in negative growth territory for the year [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The antimony supply is tightening as Polar Gold's antimony production is projected to drop to zero in the first half of 2025, leading to potential price increases in the domestic market [3] - Antimony prices have fluctuated this year, influenced by export policies and demand changes, with expectations of price increases if export restrictions ease [3] Group 3: Company Research - Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) reported significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by accelerated international expansion and increased overseas revenue and cement sales [4] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.9 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [4] - Megachip Color (603062.SH) also experienced rapid revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, with new business developments in wind power and marine coatings contributing to sales [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 270 million, 300 million, and 330 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, maintaining an "increase" rating [5]