Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Tin prices experienced a rapid decline this week, with the price dropping from a high of 469,950 yuan last Friday to a low of 345,000 yuan. The current tin fundamentals have not changed significantly, with supply remaining tight. The rapid price decline has led to the release of demand, resulting in inventory depletion and an increase in spot premiums, indicating the resilience of the fundamentals. However, in the short term, the capital sentiment is weak, with capital flowing out, and some investors may prefer to reduce their positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, so the upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile adjustment state before the Spring Festival [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was -$157 per ton, and the domestic spot premium was 1,300 yuan per ton. Overseas, the Baltimore premium decreased [9][10][15]. - **Spread**: This week, the tin inter - month structure from 01 - 03 changed from a C structure to a B structure [18][19]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 1,454 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 1,808 tons. The LME inventory decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio rebounded to 4.45% [24][26][31]. - **Capital**: As of this Friday, the settled capital of Shanghai tin was 2,965.19 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an outflow direction [35]. - **Transaction and Position**: This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin decreased. The trading volume of LME tin decreased, and the open interest increased. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin rebounded [37][42][47]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In December 2025, the tin concentrate production was 5,335 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.90%. The import volume was 17,637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.37%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 14.55%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 14,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 10,000 yuan per ton. The import profit and loss level rebounded [51][53]. - **Smelting**: In January 2026, the domestic tin ingot production was 15,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 68.1%, a slight decline from last week [58][60]. - **Import**: In December 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 1,558 tons, exports were 2,763 tons, and the net exports were 1,215 tons. The tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 636 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 14,905 yuan per ton [67]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) - **Consumption**: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14,735 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,040 tons [75]. - **Tin Products**: This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in January dropped to 69.7%. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in November decreased slightly [77]. - **End - User Consumption**: In December 2025, the end - user production showed a good performance. The monthly production of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all increased. The household appliance consumption increased month - on - month, while the automobile consumption decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased [84][86][92].