1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a shock adjustment, and investors should pay attention to the pressure at MA10 [3]. - On the macro - front, Trump claims productive dialogue with Iran, delaying the attack on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure and negotiating a broader agreement. On the fundamental side, the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, the supply shortage is showing signs of alleviation, the production of refined tin will gradually recover but may be affected, the import pressure is increasing, the demand in the AI field is strong, the spot premium is high, the downstream purchasing atmosphere is warming, and the inventory is decreasing significantly while LME inventory is increasing and the spot premium is decreasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 347,970 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19,670 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May - June contract of Shanghai tin is 100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 44,500 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,660 US dollars/ton; the main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 21,087 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,897 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 6,796 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 268 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 8,805 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 115 tons [3]. - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 10,042 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,472 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin are 635 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 75 tons [3]. - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 8,552 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 426 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,250 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 343,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,250 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 13,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,230 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 266 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 31 US dollars/ton [3]. - The average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 17,100 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 700 yuan/ton; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 325,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,950 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 329,450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,950 yuan/ton; the average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 12,000 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,505.53 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 757.7 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,700 yuan/ton; the cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6742 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 145,500 tons [3]. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 139,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 59,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock. Trump claims a "strong" dialogue with Iran, forming key points of an agreement and suspending the attack on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days, while Iran denies the dialogue [3]. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a 17% year - on - year increase, and aims to complete 23 billion yuan of investment in the first quarter, a 35% year - on - year increase [3]. - US Vice - President Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed the negotiation with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran [3]. - Fed's Goolsbee believes inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates but still retaining the space for rate cuts this year; Milan thinks rate hikes may be needed in case of second - round inflation effects and wage increases; Daly believes excessive forward - looking guidance creates a false sense of certainty and still expects four rate cuts in 2026 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of tin ore is expected to increase as Myanmar's production resumes and the rainy season ends, with a slight rebound in tin ore processing fees and signs of relief in the tight supply situation. Refined tin production will gradually recover after the Chinese New Year, but low raw material inventories in most enterprises and losses in some external mining capacities will affect refined tin output. Indonesia's tin exports are increasing, and the import window is gradually opening, increasing import pressure. The development of the AI field will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have declined, and holders have a strong sentiment to hold prices, with a spot premium of over 2,500 yuan/ton. It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo a weak adjustment, and attention should be paid to the range of 355,000 - 360,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 370,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,110 yuan; the closing price of the May - June contract for Shanghai tin is 220 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 46,850 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 960 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 30,797 lots, a decrease of 903 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai tin is - 9,623 lots, a decrease of 331 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 8,745 tons, an increase of 30 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 12,514 tons, an increase of 851 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 460 tons, a decrease of 60 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 11,312 tons, a decrease of 361 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 369,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,850 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 368,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12,820 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is - 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,060 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 203 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 112 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 353,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan; the processing fee is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 357,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,050 yuan; the processing fee is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 234,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,850 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, an increase of 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on seven aspects: supporting the construction of a strong domestic market, cultivating and expanding new driving forces, achieving high - level scientific and technological self - reliance, improving people's livelihood, promoting new - type urbanization and regional coordinated development, accelerating the comprehensive green transformation, and strengthening fiscal scientific management. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes focusing on "two important" and "two new" areas, planning and implementing a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance, and promoting the digital and intelligent transformation of central enterprises. From January to February, the cumulative social electricity consumption was 1,654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, with significant growth in the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry and the Internet data service industry. The "Fed Whisperer" indicates that the Fed tends to remain silent this week, and recent shocks are two - way factors. US President Trump requests to postpone the China - US summit due to the Iran war [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that tin prices will undergo high - level adjustments, and investors should focus on the price range of 400,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 414,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,980 yuan; the closing price of the April - May contract of Shanghai Tin is down 600 yuan, a decrease of 220 yuan; LME 3 - month tin is 53,915 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3,615 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 12,801 lots, a decrease of 5,545 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 7,318 lots, a decrease of 514 lots; LME tin total inventory is 7,680 tons, an increase of 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 11,014 tons, an increase of 2,264 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin is 11,556 tons, a decrease of 182 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 414,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 13,400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 415,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 11,310 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 14,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17,790 yuan; LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 20 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 400,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 36,150 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 404,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 36,150 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, an increase of 323.25 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 262,370 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,020 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 152,870 tons, an increase of 13,870 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will continue to promote the 301 investigation on China's implementation of the first - phase economic and trade agreement and may take tariff measures; Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with German Chancellor Merz, expressing China's willingness to strengthen cooperation with Germany in various fields; the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that the inventory of the national passenger car industry at the end of January was 3.57 million vehicles, a decrease of 80,000 vehicles month - on - month and an increase of 580,000 vehicles year - on - year [3] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports. The tin ore supply shortage has shown signs of easing, but the refined tin output is still restricted. After the Spring Festival, there is pressure for output to rebound. On the import side, the export volume of Indonesian tin has increased, and the import pressure has increased. On the demand side, downstream solder enterprises are on holiday, with weak procurement willingness, and the spot market has the situation of "price but no market" [3] 3.8 Technical Analysis - The position increases and the price rebounds, and the bullish sentiment is relatively strong [3]

1. Report Date - The report was released on February 24, 2026 [1] 2. Analysts - Liu Yuxuan, Investment Consulting Practitioner Qualification Number: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com [2] - Tang Wenhao (Contact), Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03152608, Email: tangwenhao@gtht.com [2] 3. Fundamental Data of Tin Futures - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 365,400, with a daily decline of 7.05% [2] - The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk yesterday was 47,370, with a daily increase of 1.35% [2] - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 180,497, an increase of 2,643 compared with the previous day; the position was 24,005, a decrease of 4,255 compared with the previous day [2] - The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk yesterday was 266, an increase of 18 compared with the previous day; the position was 21,997, a decrease of 271 compared with the previous day [2] - The inventory of LME Tin was 7,660, an increase of 15 compared with the previous day; the cancelled - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared with the previous day [2] Spot and Price Difference - The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 378,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 378,100 yesterday, a decrease of 15,800 compared with the previous day [2] - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 64 yesterday, an increase of 53 compared with the previous day [2] - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 165,620 yesterday, unchanged from the previous day [2] - The spread between the spot and the main futures contract was - 13,220 yesterday, a decrease of 12,420 compared with the previous day [2] Key Industry Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 364,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 368,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 251,250 yesterday, a decrease of 8,000 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 60A solder bar was 240,250 yesterday, a decrease of 8,000 compared with the previous day [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 means most bearish, and 2 means most bullish [3] 5. Macro and Industry News - Trump said countries that play tricks will face higher tariffs [4] - Due to US tariff risks, the EU plans to suspend the approval of the US - EU trade agreement [4] - German Chancellor Merz will pay an official visit to China from February 25 to 26 [4] - Fed Governor Waller: CEOs say AI will lead to massive layoffs [4]

Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: The investment rating for the tin industry is "Oscillatory adjustment" [1] Key Views - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 382,000 with a daily increase of 3.33%, and the night - session closing price was 386,250 with a night - session increase of 1.06%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 49,230 with a decrease of 1.17% [2] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 244,012, a decrease of 35,721 from the previous day, and the open interest was 32,207, a decrease of 1,418. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 460, a decrease of 42, and the open interest was 25,353, an increase of 5 [2] - The Shanghai Tin futures inventory was 6,385, an increase of 48, and the LME Tin inventory was 7,430, an increase of 400. The LME Tin注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Data**: - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 385,700, an increase of 12,200 from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 389,800, an increase of 17,200 [2] - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was -156, an increase of 1; the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 185,830, unchanged; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 5,620, a decrease of 9,980 [2] - **Industry Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 371,700, an increase of 12,200. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 375,700, an increase of 12,200 [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 255,750, an increase of 8,000, and the price of 60A solder bar was 244,750, an increase of 7,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - Shanghai has opened more than 5,200 kilometers of autonomous driving test roads and will expand the open range as needed [4] - TSMC's board approved a capital budget of $44.962 billion for the construction and upgrade of advanced process capacity [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments will accelerate the promotion and application of artificial intelligence in the field of bidding [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will experience a short - term recovery, and investors should pay attention to the 400,000 - yuan mark [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 384,180 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 27,180 yuan/ton; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai tin is 160 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 47,155 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 165 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 33,625 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,447 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 5,523 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,132 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 7,085 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,750 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,718 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin is 315 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3] - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,337 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 379 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 373,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 372,830 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 16,170 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 13,660 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 157 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,500 tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 359,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 363,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 17,200 yuan/ton [3] - The processing fee of 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 237,320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10,630 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 138,700 tons [3] - The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons [3] Industry News - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth may help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [3] - The State Council executive meeting studied measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policy measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and other funds and new policy - based financial instruments [3] - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in February was 57.3, reaching the highest level in six months. At the same time, the one - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [3] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which is expected to continue to increase in the first quarter. Recently, tin ore processing fees have increased slightly, indicating a relief of the tight supply of tin ore [3] - Smelting end: Most enterprises currently have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. Coupled with more year - end maintenance, the output of refined tin continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for output to recover after the Spring Festival [3] - Import: The export volume of tin from Indonesia has increased, the import window has gradually opened, and the import pressure has increased [3] - Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, inventories have decreased significantly, and the spot premium has risen to 1,750 yuan/ton; LME inventories have remained stable, and the spot premium has risen [3] Technical Analysis - The increase in positions and the rise in prices indicate that market sentiment has recovered [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Tin prices experienced a rapid decline this week, with the price dropping from a high of 469,950 yuan last Friday to a low of 345,000 yuan. The current tin fundamentals have not changed significantly, with supply remaining tight. The rapid price decline has led to the release of demand, resulting in inventory depletion and an increase in spot premiums, indicating the resilience of the fundamentals. However, in the short term, the capital sentiment is weak, with capital flowing out, and some investors may prefer to reduce their positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, so the upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile adjustment state before the Spring Festival [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was -$157 per ton, and the domestic spot premium was 1,300 yuan per ton. Overseas, the Baltimore premium decreased [9][10][15]. - **Spread**: This week, the tin inter - month structure from 01 - 03 changed from a C structure to a B structure [18][19]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 1,454 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 1,808 tons. The LME inventory decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio rebounded to 4.45% [24][26][31]. - **Capital**: As of this Friday, the settled capital of Shanghai tin was 2,965.19 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an outflow direction [35]. - **Transaction and Position**: This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin decreased. The trading volume of LME tin decreased, and the open interest increased. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin rebounded [37][42][47]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In December 2025, the tin concentrate production was 5,335 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.90%. The import volume was 17,637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.37%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 14.55%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 14,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 10,000 yuan per ton. The import profit and loss level rebounded [51][53]. - **Smelting**: In January 2026, the domestic tin ingot production was 15,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 68.1%, a slight decline from last week [58][60]. - **Import**: In December 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 1,558 tons, exports were 2,763 tons, and the net exports were 1,215 tons. The tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 636 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 14,905 yuan per ton [67]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) - **Consumption**: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14,735 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,040 tons [75]. - **Tin Products**: This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in January dropped to 69.7%. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in November decreased slightly [77]. - **End - User Consumption**: In December 2025, the end - user production showed a good performance. The monthly production of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all increased. The household appliance consumption increased month - on - month, while the automobile consumption decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased [84][86][92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The tin market is in a period of pullback and consolidation, with a trend strength of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 409,000, with a daily decline of 8.32%, and the night - session closing price was 412,260, with a decline of 6.56%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 50,600, with a decline of 7.16%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 103,163 to 468,870, and the position decreased by 8,589 to 40,079. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 657 to 990, and the position increased by 360 to 25,225. The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,524, with no change, and the inventory of LME Tin was 7,095, also with no change. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 428,650, a decrease of 9,950 compared to the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 423,500, a decrease of 11,800. The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium was - 227, a decrease of 27. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first contract was 212,570, a decrease of 37,180. The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 22,630, a decrease of 14,130 [2] - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 414,650, a decrease of 9,950. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 418,650, a decrease of 9,950. The price of 63A solder bar was 282,750, a decrease of 6,500. The price of 60A solder bar was 270,250, a decrease of 6,000 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - BYD's new energy vehicle sales in January 2026 decreased by 30.11% year - on - year [2] - US - Russia representatives had a "fruitful and constructive" meeting in Florida, with Treasury Secretary Bessent participating [4] - Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor said that a negotiation framework with the US is gradually taking shape, contrary to the artificially created media war atmosphere [4] - Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark, reaching its lowest level since April last year [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "High-level oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the range of trend strength being an integer within [-2, 2] [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Electronic Disk Data**: - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai tin yesterday was 451,160, with a daily increase of 6.07%, and the closing price of the night session was 436,450, with a decrease of -3.26%. The trading volume was 351,975, a decrease of 213,201 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 55,071, a decrease of 162 [2]. - The closing price of the LME 3M electronic disk of tin yesterday was 54,865, with a daily increase of 0.68%. The trading volume was 1,437, an increase of 264 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 24,818, an increase of 612 [2]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Data**: - The futures inventory of Shanghai tin was 8,553, a decrease of 71 compared to the previous day. The inventory of LME tin was 7,085, and the cancellation warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of -0.38% compared to the previous day [2]. - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: - The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 428,400, a decrease of 6,450 compared to the previous day. The average price of Yangtze River Nonferrous 1 tin was 426,300, a decrease of 10,500 compared to the previous day [2]. - The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium was -243, an increase of 2 compared to the previous day. The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 254,790, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 960, a decrease of 6,270 compared to the previous day [2]. - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 414,400, a decrease of 6,450 compared to the previous day. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 418,400, a decrease of 6,450 compared to the previous day [2]. - The price of 63A solder bar was 282,750, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous day. The price of 60A solder bar was 270,250, a decrease of 4,000 compared to the previous day [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - US consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since 2014, with a more pessimistic view of the economy and employment [4]. - The Japanese Finance Minister stated that if necessary, Japan will coordinate with the US to take appropriate actions regarding exchange - rate fluctuations [4]. - Meta has reached an agreement with Corning, a supplier to Apple, and will pay $6 billion for data - center optical cables [4]. - India has cancelled tariffs on over 90% of EU goods and provided an import quota of 250,000 cars [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term wide - range adjustments. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at MA10, with an expected range between 420,000 and 460,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 425,340 yuan/ton, down 4,230 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract is up 450 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 56,605 US dollars/ton, up 4,728 US dollars. The main contract's open interest for Shanghai tin is 55,233 lots, down 1,021 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 4,973 lots, up 1,468 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 7,195 tons, up 40 tons. The SHFE tin inventory is 9,720 tons, up 171 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 8,624 tons, up 42 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 434,850 yuan/ton, up 14,550 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 437,200 yuan/ton, up 13,460 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 9,510 yuan/ton, up 18,780 yuan. The LME tin (0 - 3) spread is - 245 US dollars/ton, down 56 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 17,600 tons, up 2,500 tons. The average processing fee for 40% tin concentrates is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 420,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 424,850 yuan/ton, up 31,600 yuan. The average processing fee for 60% tin concentrates is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, up 323.25 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 274,330 yuan/ton, up 8,900 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1,528,700 tons, up 138,700 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 142,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In January, both the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs expanded but were slightly lower than expected. The Eurozone's January manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4, with Germany's contraction slowing and France reaching a 47 - month high. The EU announced a 6 - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs on the US. There are disputes over Greenland, and the US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks were held in the UAE, with some progress on military issues and no consensus on territorial issues [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, which are expected to continue to rise in Q1. Tin ore processing fees have slightly increased, indicating a relief in the tight supply of tin ore. Smelting: Most enterprises have low raw material inventories and are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production is still limited, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Spring Festival. Import: Indonesia's exports increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints. The recent opening of the import window has increased import pressure. Demand side: The development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have corrected, improving the downstream purchasing atmosphere, with a slight decline in inventory and a spot premium of 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has declined [3]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - The candlestick chart shows a long - upper - shadow negative line with increasing volume and decreasing positions, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment [3].