Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The tin price has been fluctuating recently. The downstream enterprises mostly make rigid - demand purchases when the price is low, and there are some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded to 400 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has decreased, while the LME inventory shows a downward trend. Technically, the position has decreased, both long and short are cautious, and the lower - shadow positive line indicates support. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the range of 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton [3][4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 267,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan; the closing price of the September - October contract is 230 yuan lower, with a change of 0; the LME 3 - month tin price is 33,770 US dollars/ton, an increase of 68 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 19,377 lots, a decrease of 1,627 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 872 lots, a decrease of 159 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 1,630 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,792 tons, a decrease of 13 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 120 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 7,329 tons, a decrease of 184 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 268,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,550 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 81 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,000 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 173,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 460 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 3.6行业消息 - In August, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, with the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. On August 18, Wang Yi held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, reaching 10 outcomes. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the photovoltaic industry competition order and curb low - price disorderly competition [3] 3.7观点总结 - Macroscopically, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, and the photovoltaic industry competition order will be regulated. Fundamentally, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter; the Congo Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the output increase in July was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products, but the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the traditional off - season, with most enterprises only maintaining rigid - demand production and receiving goods, and the orders are unsatisfactory. Recently, the tin price has been fluctuating, with most downstream enterprises making rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and some post - point - price orders. The spot premium has slightly rebounded, and domestic and LME inventories are decreasing. Technically, the open interest has decreased, both long and short are cautious, and the lower - shadow positive line indicates support, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range [3] 3.8重点关注 - There is no news today [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The tin price showed a slight increase during the week and is expected to mainly fluctuate in the future. The price resilience reflects the characteristics of relatively high supply concentration and relatively scattered downstream demand in the tin market. The repeated delay of the full resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has significantly supported the tin price and may have a continuous impact. The expected weekly operating range is between 262,000 - 269,000 yuan per ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - The Shanghai tin main futures contract slightly increased during the week, closing at 267,000 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of 400 yuan per ton on the Shanghai Metal Exchange. The SHFE inventory remained stable at around 7,800 tons, while the LME inventory slightly decreased to 1,710 tons. The tin import loss widened, and the 40% tin ore processing fee remained stable [1]. 3.2. Industrial Performance - According to Antaike's statistics, the total output of refined tin from 18 domestic smelters in July 2025 was 17,899 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. In the first half of 2025, domestic sample enterprises produced 122,000 tons of refined tin, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. Regionally, production in the Southwest, East, and Central China increased month - on - month by 3.5%, 6.7%, and 53.2% respectively, while production in South and North China decreased by 17.1% and 42.9% respectively. Year - on - year, production in the Southwest and South China increased by 24.9% and 61.6% respectively, while production in the East, Central, and North China decreased by 4.7%, 17.2%, and 50.0% respectively. Since July, the processing fee for 40 - degree tin concentrate in the mainstream domestic market has remained stable at 10,000 - 10,500 yuan per ton [2]. 3.3. Tin Futures Disk Data (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | Yuan/ton | 267,780 | 2,830 | 1.07% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 267,780 | 2,830 | 1.07% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 268,060 | 2,840 | 1.07% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,605 | 390 | 1.17% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 7.9 | - 0.22 | - 2.71% | [3] 3.4. Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing (Weekly) | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | Yuan/ton | - 16,411.96 | - 2,111.91 | 14.77% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | Yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | Yuan/ton | 10,050 | 0 | 0% | [7] 3.5. Tin Inventory (Weekly) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Warehouse Receipts: Total | Tons | 7,469 | 183 | 2.51% | | Shanghai Tin Inventory | Tons | 7,805 | 134 | 1.75% | | LME Tin Registered Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 1,390 | - 25 | - 1.77% | | LME Tin Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 320 | - 215 | - 40.19% | | LME Tin Inventory | Tons | 1,710 | - 240 | - 12.31% | | Social Inventory | Tons | 9,644 | - 110 | - 1.13% | [10][12] 3.6. Tin Spot Data (Weekly) | Item | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - Ferrous Tin Ingot | Yuan/ton | 268,000 | 3,400 | 1.28% | | 1 Tin Premium | Yuan/ton | 400 | - 100 | - 20% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | Yuan/ton | 256,000 | 3,400 | 1.35% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | Yuan/ton | 260,000 | 3,400 | 1.33% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - Ferrous | Yuan/ton | 173,750 | 1,500 | 0.87% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - Ferrous | Yuan/ton | 181,750 | 2,000 | 1.11% | | Lead - Free Solder | Yuan/ton | 274,250 | 3,500 | 1.29% | [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July and the downward revision of the previous value have strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. With the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields, the cost of holding gold has decreased. Global central bank gold - buying demand, fiscal and monetary easing expectations, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties are all factors driving the return of gold prices to fundamental strength [3]. - **Copper**: The recent decline in copper prices is due to the US adjustment of copper tariff policies. Although the tariff does not cover core upstream products, the high copper inventory in the US COMEX market may affect the price difference between LME and COMEX. The price of Shanghai copper is still closely linked to LME copper, and weak downstream demand is expected to emerge this week [16]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Macro factors have a negative impact on aluminum. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure. Alumina is expected to be weak in the short - term, while cast aluminum alloy has a relatively good fundamental situation, and its futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side of zinc is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the traditional off - season. In the short term, attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disturbances [61]. - **Nickel and Its Industry Chain**: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index, US copper tariffs, and Sino - US economic and trade talks are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and the downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted. Stainless steel has limited decline due to multiple factors [77]. - **Tin**: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the future [92]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The unexpectedly low US non - farm payroll data in July (73,000 new jobs) and the downward revision of the previous value have increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to 89.1%. The weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields have reduced the cost of holding gold, while long - term support comes from central bank gold - buying demand and fiscal and monetary easing expectations [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver futures, including prices, price differences, and long - term trends, are presented [4][12][13]. Copper - **Price Influencing Factors**: The US tariff adjustment on copper products has affected copper prices. Although core upstream products are excluded, the high inventory in the US COMEX market may impact the price relationship between different markets. Downstream demand is expected to weaken [16]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures and spot are provided, including data such as the main contract, continuous contracts, and spot premiums and discounts [17][22][25]. Aluminum and Related Products - **Aluminum**: Macro factors are negative for aluminum. Although domestic demand is in the off - season and social inventory is accumulating, the low absolute inventory provides some support, and prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [37]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of alumina is high and in surplus, and inventory is rising. The warehouse receipt problem may be resolved in August, and prices may be weak in the short - term [37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply of scrap aluminum may decline in the future, providing strong support for alloy prices. The demand from exchange - listed brands is good, and the futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum [37]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot, as well as price differences between different contracts, are presented [38][42][48]. Zinc - **Price Influencing Factors**: The supply side is gradually changing from tight to surplus, and the processing fee is expected to increase this month. The demand side is weak during the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to macro data and supply - side disturbances [61]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures and spot, including price differences between different contracts and spot premiums and discounts, are provided [62][70]. Nickel and Its Industry Chain - **Price Influencing Factors**: Anti - involution sentiment has declined, and factors such as the US dollar index and US copper tariffs are suppressing the market. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines has loosened, and downstream demand has improved. Nickel sulfate prices are firm, and nickel iron prices have adjusted [77]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as prices of related products such as nickel ore, nickel sulfate, and stainless steel, are presented [78][83][91]. Tin - **Price Influencing Factors**: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to start in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals, but may not affect short - term supply and demand. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate [92]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures and spot, as well as prices of related products such as tin concentrate and solder, are provided [93][99][101]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Influencing Factors**: There are still short - term supply - side disturbances, and the production schedule in August is expected to be positive. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock state [108]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot, as well as inventory data, are presented [108][111][116]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Influencing Factors**: The current macro - sentiment continues to affect the market, and the fundamentals remain unchanged. The industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate, and the polysilicon market is expected to have a wide - range shock [118]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures, as well as prices of related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, are provided [119][120][127].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tin price showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with persistent upward pressure. It is expected to decline slightly in the coming week, with a weekly operating range of 262,000 - 272,000 yuan per ton [1]. - The mid - week increase in tin price was mainly due to the boost to the non - ferrous metal sector from anti - involution, while its own fundamentals remained largely unchanged. Considering the obvious oligopoly situation in the upstream of tin, the price increase is understandable. As the anti - involution heat fades, the tin price may decline slightly. Investors need to pay attention to the impact of various macro events in the last week of July on the tin price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Futures盘面 Data (Weekly) - The futures prices of Shanghai tin all increased this week. The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 271,630 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 7,090 yuan or 2.68%. The London tin 3M price was 34,140 US dollars per ton, a weekly increase of 785 US dollars or 2.35%. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.86, a weekly decrease of 0.06 or 0.76% [2]. 3.2 Tin Spot Data (Weekly) - The prices of various tin spot products all increased this week. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots was 271,100 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 5,600 yuan or 2.11%. The 1 tin premium was 700 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 200 yuan or 40% [4]. 3.3 Tin Import Profit and Loss and Processing (Weekly) - Tin imports continued to be at a loss, with the latest loss at 21,486.26 yuan per ton, a weekly increase of 5,942.25 yuan or 38.23%. The 40% tin ore processing fee remained stable at 12,200 yuan per ton, and the 60% tin ore processing fee remained stable at 10,550 yuan per ton [7]. 3.4 Tin Inventory (Weekly) - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was stable at around 7,000 tons, with the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt totaling 7,125 tons, a weekly increase of 308 tons or 4.52%. The LME tin inventory dropped significantly to 1,690 tons, a weekly decrease of 345 tons or 16.95%. The social inventory was 9,644 tons, a weekly decrease of 110 tons or 1.13% [1][10][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar has great uncertainty, and Thailand prohibits the transit of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level [3] - In the smelting sector, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and cost pressure, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure and the operating rate remains at a low level [3] - In the demand sector, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment ended, the operating rate of some producers decreased; the electronics industry entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [3] - Recently, tin prices have been widely adjusted. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas inventory continues to decline with an increase in LME cancelled warrants [3] - Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low position, and the price is adjusted widely within the range. Attention should be paid to the support of MA60. It is recommended to wait and see for now, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 266,720 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan; the closing price of the 3 - month LME tin is 33,565 US dollars/ton, up 115 US dollars [3] - The closing price of the August - September contract of Shanghai Tin is 20 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is 25,204 lots, up 1,054 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in futures of Shanghai Tin is 435 lots, down 467 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 1,970 tons, down 45 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,097 tons (weekly), down 101 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 570 tons, down 25 tons [3] - The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,605 tons (daily), down 26 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 266,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 266,180 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai Tin is - 220 yuan/ton, down 2,980 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 251.8 US dollars/ton, down 274.01 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons (monthly), down 2,900 tons; the average processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan [3] - The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 173,330 yuan/ton, unchanged; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons (monthly), up 144,500 tons [3] - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14,070 tons, down 3,390 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - In June in China, the social financing increment was 420 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 224 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [3] - The EU is prepared to impose counter - tariffs on US imports worth about 84 billion US dollars if the US - EU trade negotiation fails [3] - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is uncertain, and Thailand prohibits the transit of tin ore from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore; the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State has significant uncertainties, and Thailand has banned the transit transportation of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin mines. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in phases, and currently, the tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, Yunnan is facing a shortage of raw materials and high costs, while Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, after the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined, and the electronics industry has entered a slack season with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Recently, the tin price has fluctuated widely, with downstream buyers purchasing at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and overseas inventory has continued to decline. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low - position in the open interest, and the price is adjusting widely within a range. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin is 266,720 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan; the closing price of the 3 - month LME tin is 33,565 US dollars/ton, up 115 US dollars. - The closing price of the August - September contract for Shanghai Tin is 20 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the main contract open interest for Shanghai Tin is 25,204 lots, up 1,054 lots. - The net position of the top 20 futures for Shanghai Tin is 435 lots, down 467 lots; the total LME tin inventory is 1,970 tons, down 45 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,097 tons, down 101 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants are 570 tons, down 25 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,605 tons, down 26 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM1 tin spot price is 266,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 266,180 yuan/ton, down 640 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 220 yuan/ton, down 2,980 yuan; the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 251.8 US dollars/ton, down 274.01 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrates is 254,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 258,700 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrates by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrates by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. - The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 173,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 160.14 million tons, up 14.45 million tons. - The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 14.07 million tons, down 3.39 million tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that US President Trump's newly announced tariff measures have muddled the inflation outlook again, making it more difficult for him to support Trump's strongly advocated interest - rate cut policy. - The central bank stated that the transmission of monetary policy takes time, the effects of the implemented monetary policies will further emerge, and in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, pay close attention to and evaluate the transmission and actual effects of the previously implemented policies, and adjust the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation according to domestic and foreign economic and financial situations and financial market operations [3]. 3.7重点关注 Today, there is no important news [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The price of tin is weakening, with the trend strength of tin at 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Tin Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 263,520, with a daily decline of 1.40%. The night - session closing price was 263,660, with a decline of 0.76%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,260 yesterday, with a decline of 1.51% [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 84,417, an increase of 976 from the previous day. The open interest was 28,262, a decrease of 2,457. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 180, a decrease of 9, and the open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 [2]. - **Futures Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,868, an increase of 61. The inventory of LME Tin was 2,085, a decrease of 25. The注销仓单 ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price yesterday was 266,800, a decrease of 500 from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 267,100, a decrease of 800 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was 8, a decrease of 14. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first contract was 67,650, unchanged. The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 150, an increase of 370 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Prices**: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 254,800, a decrease of 500. The price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 258,800, a decrease of 500. The price of 63A solder bar was 180,750, a decrease of 1,000, and the price of 60A solder bar was 173,250, a decrease of 1,000 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings by 70,000 ounces in June, continuing to increase holdings for 8 consecutive months with a recovery in the pace [2][3]. - Trump's first wave of tax letters targets 14 countries including Japan and South Korea, with tax rates ranging from 25% to 40%, effective on August 1. The EU may be close to an agreement [2][3]. - Tesla once tumbled 7.6%. Amid continuous sales decline, Musk's "American Party" is involved in a political whirlpool [2][3]. - CoreWeave spent $9 billion to acquire Core Scientific to expand its AI computing power map and increase investment in AI infrastructure [2][3]. - OpenAI's equity compensation accounts for 119% of its revenue, paying a high price to retain talent. An Apple executive in charge of AI models will switch to Meta [2][3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 26, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The fundamentals of tin remain stable. There are both利多 factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations, and利空 factors including the recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5][6] Key Points by Category 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 263,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 21.40%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 56.9% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell the call option SN2508C275000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] - For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell the put option SN2508P245000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] 2. News and Factors - The fundamentals of tin remain stable [3] -利多 factors: easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] -利空 factors: recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [5][6] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 263,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of Shanghai tin continuous - one is 263,140 yuan/ton, and Shanghai tin continuous - three is 262,950 yuan/ton, both with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 32,460 US dollars/ton, down 110 US dollars (- 0.34%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.04, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.83%). The 1 tin premium is 700 yuan/ton with no change. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 250,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.87%), and the price of 60% tin concentrate is 254,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.86%). The price of solder bar (60A) is 170,750 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan (- 0.58%), the price of solder bar (63A) is 177,750 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan (- 0.84%), and the price of lead - free solder is 268,250 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan (- 0.74%) [10][13] 4. Tin Import and Processing - The tin import profit and loss is - 12,717.24 yuan/ton, up 25.63% compared to the previous day. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [15] 5. Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,472 tons, up 10 tons (0.15%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,117 tons, up 8 tons (0.19%), and in Shanghai is 1,430 tons, up 2 tons (0.14%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,155 tons, down 25 tons (- 1.15%) [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The macro - face shows the Fed officials' differences on interest - rate cuts are public. The fundamentals indicate that the resumption progress of Myanmar's Wa State tin mines is highly uncertain, and Thailand's ban on transit transportation of tin mines restricts imports. Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. The smelting end has raw material shortages and cost pressures, with low raw - material inventories and low operating rates. The demand side is in a seasonal off - season, but some downstream enterprises start to replenish stocks due to price corrections. Technically, the position is low, and it faces MA60 resistance. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 257,000 - 264,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 261,880 yuan/ton, up 1,320 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price is 32,690 dollars/ton, up 590 dollars. The 8 - 9 - month contract closing price of Shanghai tin is 130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The main contract position volume of Shanghai tin is 17,549 lots, down 985 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 1,459 lots, down 1,007 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,175 tons, down 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 6,965 tons, down 142 tons; LME tin cancelled warrants are 685 tons, down 5 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 6,444 tons, down 58 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 261,800 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 261,510 yuan/ton, down 1,560 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 2,740 yuan/ton, up 1,640 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 80.99 dollars/ton, up 103.99 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 251,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 170,130 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's monetary policy report shows inflation is "slightly high" and the job market is "in good condition". Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The consumer goods trade - in policy has no change, and subsidy funds will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the stamp duty revenue increased by 18.8% year - on - year [2] 3.7 Key Points - Myanmar's tin ore imports are restricted; Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in June. Tin ore processing fees are at a historical low. Yunnan's smelting enterprises face raw material shortages and cost pressures; Jiangxi's waste recycling system is under pressure. The consumer electronics market is in a seasonal off - season, but some downstream enterprises replenish stocks. The domestic inventory decreases slightly, and overseas de - stocking is obvious. Technically, it faces MA60 resistance and 257,000 yuan/ton support [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is driven by factors such as the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and the uncertainty of monetary policy, but the intraday risk - aversion sentiment has declined [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate around 78,000 yuan per ton in the short - term, with greater upward pressure and relatively weaker downward support due to the possible weakening of demand [14]. - Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, and it may maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - Zinc's supply is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. Demand remains stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment [59]. - For nickel, potential audits in Indonesia may affect production. Nickel ore is expected to stabilize, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak in the off - season, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the next week, with support from low inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weakening downstream demand [89]. - Lithium carbonate's mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state recently [104]. - The silicon industry chain has a relatively loose supply and slightly improved demand. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and monetary policy uncertainty drive funds into the gold market [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, and their relationships with factors like the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9] Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term oscillation around 78,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and weak downward support [14]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [15]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions, as well as import profit and loss and other data are given [19][23] - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of SHFE and LME copper, and their changes are presented [27][28] Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is gradually weakening, low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short - term, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's Axis mine may have short - term production suspension, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation and price oscillation [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost is strongly supported, supply is excessive, demand growth may slow down, and it may oscillate strongly in the short - term with a BACK structure [32]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures and spot are provided [34][52] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually loosening, but the transmission to the ingot end is not complete. Demand is stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and inventory [59]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of zinc futures and spot are provided [60][68] Nickel - **Industry Impact**: Indonesian audits may affect nickel intermediate products and stainless - steel production. Nickel ore is stable, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related raw materials are provided [73][79] Tin - **Price Outlook**: Prices are expected to remain stable, with support from inventory and mine supply, and pressure from weakening demand [89]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of tin futures and spot are provided [90][98] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating recently [104]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided [105][111] Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, and demand is slightly improved. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. - **Price and Production Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon spot and futures, and production - related data such as output and capacity utilization rate are provided [117][138]