供给扰动带动锡价大幅 上涨 锡周报 2026/02/28 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：12月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺有所缓解。2025年12月我国进口锡精矿实物量17637吨，折金属5191.6吨，环比增 长13.3%，同比增长40.2%。主要进口国看，非洲地区进口总量2375吨，减少11.1%；缅甸993吨，增长14.3%；澳大利亚912吨，增长91.5%； 南美地区进口总量426吨，增长118.5%。 ◆ 供给端：春节云南地区冶炼厂开工率下降，节后恢复偏慢。江西地区仍受废料供应不足影响，粗锡供应偏紧，精锡产量延续偏低水平。整体 来看，在原料约束尚未明显缓解的背景下，国内冶炼厂开工以持稳为主。 ◆ 需求端：需求方面，节后下游陆续复工，询价挂单意愿较低，客户观望情绪较为浓厚，成交以刚需为主，市场整体交投表现较淡。库存方面， 本周全球 ...

2月24日（周二），安德拉达矿业（Andrada Mining）旗下纳米比亚的全资子公司Uis Tin Mining已加入 其与综合锡生产商--泰国冶炼和精炼公司（Thaisarco）的承购协议。 安德拉达矿业首席执行官Anthony Viljoen在接受媒体采访的时候表示，"这项协议是我们与Thaisarco建 立的长期合作关系、我们在Uis继续提供的强劲经营业绩以及锡需求不断增长的结果。" 作为对Uis tin Mining在协议期间生产的所有锡精矿的独家经营权的交换，Thaisarco将向Uis预付300万美 元，预计本周晚些时候Uis将收到这笔款项。 Uis有三种还款方式，除违约情况外，还款由其自行决定。 锡的现代应用包括焊料、因其低毒性而用于食品包装罐、窗户玻璃生产、一些锂离子电池中的组件以及 含有锡化合物的牙科护理产品。 本月早些时候，Uis与欧洲投资银行（EIB）签订了一项合作协议，以加快其锂扩建项目可行性研究。 欧洲投资银行的伙伴关系被视为为Uis锂开发战略提供技术和机构支持，Uis开采了一个含有锡、钽和锂 矿化的多金属伟晶岩矿床。 （文华综合） 这些无担保预付款不产生利息，Thaisarco ...

1. Report Date - The report was released on February 24, 2026 [1] 2. Analysts - Liu Yuxuan, Investment Consulting Practitioner Qualification Number: Z0020476, Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com [2] - Tang Wenhao (Contact), Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03152608, Email: tangwenhao@gtht.com [2] 3. Fundamental Data of Tin Futures - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 365,400, with a daily decline of 7.05% [2] - The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk yesterday was 47,370, with a daily increase of 1.35% [2] - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai Tin yesterday was 180,497, an increase of 2,643 compared with the previous day; the position was 24,005, a decrease of 4,255 compared with the previous day [2] - The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk yesterday was 266, an increase of 18 compared with the previous day; the position was 21,997, a decrease of 271 compared with the previous day [2] - The inventory of LME Tin was 7,660, an increase of 15 compared with the previous day; the cancelled - warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared with the previous day [2] Spot and Price Difference - The price of SMM 1 tin ingot was 378,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin was 378,100 yesterday, a decrease of 15,800 compared with the previous day [2] - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 64 yesterday, an increase of 53 compared with the previous day [2] - The spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 165,620 yesterday, unchanged from the previous day [2] - The spread between the spot and the main futures contract was - 13,220 yesterday, a decrease of 12,420 compared with the previous day [2] Key Industry Price Data - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 364,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 368,750 yesterday, a decrease of 12,900 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 251,250 yesterday, a decrease of 8,000 compared with the previous day [2] - The price of 60A solder bar was 240,250 yesterday, a decrease of 8,000 compared with the previous day [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. -2 means most bearish, and 2 means most bullish [3] 5. Macro and Industry News - Trump said countries that play tricks will face higher tariffs [4] - Due to US tariff risks, the EU plans to suspend the approval of the US - EU trade agreement [4] - German Chancellor Merz will pay an official visit to China from February 25 to 26 [4] - Fed Governor Waller: CEOs say AI will lead to massive layoffs [4]

Report Summary - **Industry Investment Rating**: The investment rating for the tin industry is "Oscillatory adjustment" [1] Key Views - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 382,000 with a daily increase of 3.33%, and the night - session closing price was 386,250 with a night - session increase of 1.06%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 49,230 with a decrease of 1.17% [2] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 244,012, a decrease of 35,721 from the previous day, and the open interest was 32,207, a decrease of 1,418. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 460, a decrease of 42, and the open interest was 25,353, an increase of 5 [2] - The Shanghai Tin futures inventory was 6,385, an increase of 48, and the LME Tin inventory was 7,430, an increase of 400. The LME Tin注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Data**: - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 385,700, an increase of 12,200 from the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 389,800, an increase of 17,200 [2] - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was -156, an increase of 1; the spread between the nearby contract and the consecutive first contract was 185,830, unchanged; the spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 5,620, a decrease of 9,980 [2] - **Industry Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 371,700, an increase of 12,200. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 375,700, an increase of 12,200 [2] - The price of 63A solder bar was 255,750, an increase of 8,000, and the price of 60A solder bar was 244,750, an increase of 7,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - Shanghai has opened more than 5,200 kilometers of autonomous driving test roads and will expand the open range as needed [4] - TSMC's board approved a capital budget of $44.962 billion for the construction and upgrade of advanced process capacity [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments will accelerate the promotion and application of artificial intelligence in the field of bidding [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of tin are both weak, but the demand is greatly affected by the holiday. Domestic inventory is expected to rise, and the rebound of tin is weak, possibly continuing to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the holiday [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Situation - In December, the domestic tin ore import volume was 17,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. The tin ore imported from Myanmar was 6,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 438.68%. The recovery of the ore end is relatively slow, and the domestic tin ore supply remains tight in the short term, with processing fees at a low level [2] - As of the week of February 9, the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 10,000 yuan/ton, also unchanged week - on - week [2] 3.2 Supply - In January, the refined tin output was 15,100 tons, lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 5.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. The raw material inventory of smelters is generally less than 30 days. The operating rate of domestic mainstream smelting enterprises remains high, but some enterprises have gradually reduced their loads or arranged maintenance due to holiday factors. The resumption of work of smelters from late February to early March may be relatively slow [3] - In December, China's refined tin import volume was 1,548 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.24% and a month - on - month increase of 29.54%. The import window was basically closed in December. In December, China exported 2,763 tons of refined tin, a year - on - year increase of 32.58% and a month - on - month increase of 41.84%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is oscillating downward, and tin imports continue to incur losses [3] - On January 21, 2026, Indonesia began to export tin ingots. In January, it exported 2,670 tons of tin ingots. With the subsequent quota gradually issued, the export volume will increase month - on - month, but limited by the quota ceiling of 60,000 tons, the annual supply may increase moderately [3] 3.3 Consumption - Recently, as tin prices fell, most downstream enterprises entered the market to replenish stocks, which may lead to a decline in social inventory. Last week, spot trading was relatively active, and some downstream enterprises entered the market for rigid - demand replenishment as the price dropped. However, the stocking of the downstream solder industry has basically ended this week, and other consumer industries have also completed their purchases one after another and are ready for the holiday. It is expected that spot transactions in the downstream will weaken, demand may drop to the bottom, and domestic inventory is expected to increase again [4] 3.4 Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of February 6, the tin inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,718 tons to 8,750 tons. As of January 23, the social inventory in three places monitored by SMM was 9,898 tons, ending a three - consecutive - increase trend. The average price of Yangtze River spot tin was 356,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66,970 yuan, a decline of 15.81%. The basis of Yangtze River spot to the main tin contract fluctuated, and the basis was at a discount of 3,710 yuan last Friday [4] 3.5 LME Spot and Inventory - As of February 6, the weekly inventory of LME tin decreased by 10 tons to 7,085 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the past five years. The spot discount of LME tin narrowed, and the discount was 157 US dollars last weekend [4] 3.6 Market Outlook and Strategy - Overseas tin inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a relatively high level in the past five years. The spot is deeply discounted, and the supply - demand situation of overseas tin has not changed much. In December, the domestic tin ore import volume increased month - on - month, but the import of tin concentrate from Myanmar decreased month - on - month. The recovery process of Myanmar's tin mines is slow, and the domestic ore import volume is still difficult to effectively supplement. The short - term supply shortage of domestic tin ore has limited marginal improvement, and the domestic tin ore processing fee remains at a low level [5] - Affected by raw material shortages and the holiday, the output in February declined. In December, both the import and export of domestic refined tin increased month - on - month, and there was a net export in the month. Currently, the price ratio is oscillating downward, and the loss of tin imports has intensified. Indonesia's export volume increased year - on - year in January, and the quota in 2026 increased slightly. The future export volume may increase moderately [5] - The stocking of the downstream solder industry has basically ended this week, and other consumer industries have also completed their purchases one after another and are ready for the holiday. It is expected that spot transactions in the downstream will weaken, demand may drop to the bottom, and domestic inventory is expected to increase again [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Tin prices experienced a rapid decline this week, with the price dropping from a high of 469,950 yuan last Friday to a low of 345,000 yuan. The current tin fundamentals have not changed significantly, with supply remaining tight. The rapid price decline has led to the release of demand, resulting in inventory depletion and an increase in spot premiums, indicating the resilience of the fundamentals. However, in the short term, the capital sentiment is weak, with capital flowing out, and some investors may prefer to reduce their positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, so the upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile adjustment state before the Spring Festival [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Trading (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was -$157 per ton, and the domestic spot premium was 1,300 yuan per ton. Overseas, the Baltimore premium decreased [9][10][15]. - **Spread**: This week, the tin inter - month structure from 01 - 03 changed from a C structure to a B structure [18][19]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic social inventory decreased by 1,454 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 1,808 tons. The LME inventory decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio rebounded to 4.45% [24][26][31]. - **Capital**: As of this Friday, the settled capital of Shanghai tin was 2,965.19 million yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an outflow direction [35]. - **Transaction and Position**: This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin decreased. The trading volume of LME tin decreased, and the open interest increased. The open - interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin rebounded [37][42][47]. 2. Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In December 2025, the tin concentrate production was 5,335 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.90%. The import volume was 17,637 tons, a year - on - year increase of 119.37%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 14.55%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 14,000 yuan per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan remained at 10,000 yuan per ton. The import profit and loss level rebounded [51][53]. - **Smelting**: In January 2026, the domestic tin ingot production was 15,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.76%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 68.1%, a slight decline from last week [58][60]. - **Import**: In December 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 1,558 tons, exports were 2,763 tons, and the net exports were 1,215 tons. The tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 636 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 14,905 yuan per ton [67]. 3. Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) - **Consumption**: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 14,735 tons, and the actual consumption was 14,040 tons [75]. - **Tin Products**: This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in January dropped to 69.7%. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in November decreased slightly [77]. - **End - User Consumption**: In December 2025, the end - user production showed a good performance. The monthly production of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners all increased. The household appliance consumption increased month - on - month, while the automobile consumption decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased [84][86][92].

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry for investment [8]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Renison's tin concentrate production reached 3,319 tons, a 46% increase quarter-on-quarter, while the annual production remained stable [1]. - The sales volume of tin concentrate in Q4 2025 was 3,375 tons, reflecting a 52% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The average selling price of tin in Q4 2025 was A$58,086 per ton, up 12% from the previous quarter and 24% year-on-year [3]. - The estimated revenue for Q4 2025 was A$193 million, a 63% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 23% increase year-on-year [5]. - The estimated EBITDA for Q4 2025 was A$112.5 million, representing a 129% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 40% increase year-on-year [6]. - The net cash inflow for Q4 2025 was A$92.16 million, a 208% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 57% increase year-on-year [7]. Production and Cost Analysis - The estimated C1 cash production cost for Q4 2025 was A$16,598 per ton, down 28% quarter-on-quarter and up 2% year-on-year [4]. - The All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC) for Q4 2025 was A$27,906 per ton, down 23% quarter-on-quarter and up 1% year-on-year [4]. - The total capital expenditure for Q4 2025 was A$19.54 million, slightly down from A$19.84 million in Q3 2025 [9]. Cash Management and Investments - As of the end of Q4 2025, cash and cash equivalents increased by A$14.1 million to A$293.6 million [10]. - Metals X's receivables from tin amounted to A$29.21 million, with an implied inventory value of A$40.13 million [11]. - The company continues to evaluate potential acquisition projects, focusing primarily on tin mines [14]. Project Updates - The Rentails project team has completed the draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) and plans to submit it to the Tasmanian EPA by the end of the month [12]. - The front-end engineering design (FEED) for the processing plant is expected to be completed by Q3 2026 [13].

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry for investment [8]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Renison's tin concentrate production reached 3,319 tons, a 46% increase quarter-on-quarter, while the annual production remained stable [1]. - The sales volume of tin concentrate in Q4 2025 was 3,375 tons, reflecting a 52% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The average selling price of tin in Q4 2025 was A$58,086 per ton, up 12% from the previous quarter and 24% year-on-year [3]. - The estimated revenue for Q4 2025 was A$193 million, a 63% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 23% increase year-on-year [5]. - The estimated EBITDA for Q4 2025 was A$112.5 million, a 129% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 40% increase year-on-year [6]. - The net cash inflow for Q4 2025 was A$92.16 million, a 208% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 57% increase year-on-year [7]. Production and Cost Analysis - The estimated C1 cash production cost for Q4 2025 was A$16,598 per ton, down 28% quarter-on-quarter and up 2% year-on-year [4]. - The All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) for Q4 2025 was A$27,906 per ton, down 23% quarter-on-quarter and up 1% year-on-year [4]. - The total capital expenditure for Q4 2025 was A$19.54 million, slightly down from A$19.84 million in Q3 2025 [9]. Cash Management and Investments - As of the end of Q4 2025, cash and cash equivalents increased by A$14.1 million to A$293.6 million [10]. - Metals X's receivables from tin amounted to A$29.21 million, with an implied inventory value of A$40.13 million [11]. - The company continues to evaluate potential acquisition projects, focusing primarily on tin mines [14]. Project Updates - The Rentails project team has completed the draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) and plans to submit it to the Tasmanian EPA by the end of the month [12]. - The front-end engineering design (FEED) for the processing plant has been awarded to GR Engineering Services, with completion expected in Q3 2026 [13].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 383340 | -9310 3月-4月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -660 | -1020 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 45605 | -4995 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 35433 | -2889 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | -6096 | -367 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 7105 | 10 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 10468 | 748 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 275 | 10 | | | 上期所仓单:锡(日,吨) | 7788 | -309 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#锡现货价格(日,元/吨) | 381900 | -10850 长江有色市场1#锡现货价(日,元/吨) | 377200 | -15280 | | | 沪锡主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 19650 | 271 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The tin market is in a period of pullback and consolidation, with a trend strength of -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract yesterday was 409,000, with a daily decline of 8.32%, and the night - session closing price was 412,260, with a decline of 6.56%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 50,600, with a decline of 7.16%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 103,163 to 468,870, and the position decreased by 8,589 to 40,079. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 657 to 990, and the position increased by 360 to 25,225. The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 8,524, with no change, and the inventory of LME Tin was 7,095, also with no change. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price Difference Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 428,650, a decrease of 9,950 compared to the previous day. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 423,500, a decrease of 11,800. The LME tin (spot/three - month) premium was - 227, a decrease of 27. The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive first contract was 212,570, a decrease of 37,180. The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was - 22,630, a decrease of 14,130 [2] - **Industrial Chain Important Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) was 414,650, a decrease of 9,950. The price of 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi) was 418,650, a decrease of 9,950. The price of 63A solder bar was 282,750, a decrease of 6,500. The price of 60A solder bar was 270,250, a decrease of 6,000 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - BYD's new energy vehicle sales in January 2026 decreased by 30.11% year - on - year [2] - US - Russia representatives had a "fruitful and constructive" meeting in Florida, with Treasury Secretary Bessent participating [4] - Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor said that a negotiation framework with the US is gradually taking shape, contrary to the artificially created media war atmosphere [4] - Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 mark, reaching its lowest level since April last year [4]