供给延续偏紧，关注 缅甸复产进展 锡月报 2025/10/10 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：尽管近期缅甸佤邦地区矿产开采证已审批完毕，但复产进度偏慢，预计四季度锡矿供应才能得到显著恢复。根据中国海关公布的数 据，2025年8月我国进口锡精矿实物量达10267吨，较上月持平。自刚果（金）、俄罗斯、玻利维亚等国进口锡精矿量级有所下滑，但整体量 级处于正常水平，仅为船期等运输因素影响。自缅甸进口锡矿量有所回升，随着采矿证审批通过，短期供应有改善迹象。自其他地区及国家 进口锡矿量级保持往期水平。 ◆ 供给端：缅甸佤邦锡矿复产进度缓慢，11月前难以放量，云南地区冶炼企业原材料紧张现象仍存，叠加9月某大型冶炼企业开启检修，导致 本周云南地区开工率大幅下滑；江西地区则因废料显著 ...

2025 年 10 月 10 日 锡：加速上行 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | 锡基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 287,090 | 4.75% | 287,400 | 0.82% | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 36,820 | 1.57% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 78,981 | 14,274 | 34,948 | 5,657 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 180 | - 9 | 13,988 | 5 3 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | ...

金属牛市进行时 - 稀土金银铜铝锡钴 20251008 您如何看待稀土市场的未来走势？ 摘要 伦铜、伦锡、伦铝普涨由共振效应引发，预计持续性强。美国稀土公司 股价大涨，或因政府入股及订单支持。国内稀土市场预计 10 月普涨， 供给端民企停产影响显著，新能源车和风电需求强劲，看好四季度及明 年上半年需求。 印尼严打非法矿山或影响全球 5%锡精矿供应。尽管短期锡价高开低走， 但逢低布局思路不变，预计明年高点可达 35 万元/吨。建议关注锡业股 份、华锡有色等标的，若锡价达 35 万元/吨，协鑫股份市值或达 600 亿 元，华锡有色可达三四百亿元。 刚果金实行配额后，钴价暴涨，远期价格已超 34 万甚至接近 35 万。市 场预期明年钴价高点 40 万元左右，均价 35 万以上。若配额维持 9-10 万吨，将导致供需扭转，长期缺口显现。建议关注华友钴业、洛阳钼业、 腾远钴业及力勤资源。 假期期间，黄金和白银分别上涨 3.6%和 2.5%，黄金价格达到历史性的 4,000 美元每盎司。铜价上涨超过 3%，逼近 2024 年 LME 铜价高点 11,100 美元。 Q&A 请问您对四季度有色金属板块的整体展望是什么？ 四 ...

Group 1 - The company conducted an investor relations activity on September 17, 2025, with three institutions participating, including Everbright Securities, Xingzheng Global Fund, and Guosheng Securities [1] - The company has established an integrated production system covering the entire tungsten industry chain, including exploration, mining, smelting, powder production, and deep processing [1] - The company reported an increase in production for tungsten concentrate, tin concentrate, and copper concentrate in the first half of 2025, with tungsten concentrate production reaching 1,849.93 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.24% [2] Group 2 - The company achieved a sales volume of 2,657.83 tons for tungsten powder in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.68% [3] - The subsidiary, Ganzhou Aoketai, reported a revenue of 353.53 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 15.36%, with hard alloy tool sales contributing 189.27 million yuan, up 22.6% [3] - The company is focusing on establishing long-term partnerships with quality suppliers for tungsten raw materials, while also facing challenges from price fluctuations in externally sourced raw materials [2]

Group 1: Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the development and utilization of tungsten mining resources, producing ammonium paratungstate (APT), tungsten oxide, tungsten powder, tungsten carbide powder, thermal spray powder, and hard alloy products, establishing a comprehensive production system across the tungsten industry chain [1][2] - The upstream business focuses on tungsten mining resource exploration and selection, with tungsten concentrate as the main product, and by-products including tin and copper concentrates sold externally [1][2] Group 2: Mining Operations - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 1,849.93 tons of tungsten concentrate (WO3 65%), a year-on-year increase of 3.24%; tin concentrate production was 426.12 tons, up 2.71%; and copper concentrate production was 180.61 tons, up 2.02% [3] - The company is advancing resource integration and enhancing mining efficiency through mechanization, aiming to increase the output of tungsten, tin, and copper [3][4] Group 3: Raw Material Procurement - The company self-produces all tungsten concentrate for internal use and procures additional tungsten concentrate and APT externally, evaluating suppliers based on management capabilities and quality to ensure stable raw material supply [7] - Fluctuations in tungsten concentrate prices can impact production costs and overall business performance, especially given the high proportion of externally sourced raw materials [8] Group 4: Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, tungsten powder sales reached 2,657.83 tons, a 43.68% increase year-on-year; tungsten carbide powder sales were 2,975.12 tons, up 19.25%; however, hard alloy sales decreased by 7.17% to 573.92 tons, and thermal spray powder sales fell by 1.93% to 222.59 tons [9] - The subsidiary, Ganzhou Aoketai, achieved revenue of 353.53 million yuan, a 15.36% increase, with hard alloy tool sales contributing 189.27 million yuan, up 2.26%, and bar sales reaching 143.40 million yuan, up 28.30% [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents the average prices, price changes, and spot premium/discounts of various non - ferrous metals on September 15, 2025, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium [1]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 80,940 with a rise of 185, and SMM flat - water copper premium/discount is 50 with a fall of 15 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,950 with a fall of 70, and SMM A00 aluminum premium/discount is - 50 with a fall of 10; Alumina (Shanxi) price is 3,045 with a fall of 5, and Australian alumina FOB average price is 340 with no change [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,950 with a rise of 175, and SMM 1 lead ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 70 with no change; Recycled refined lead average price is 16,900 with a rise of 150, and the refined - scrap price difference is 50 with a rise of 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,230 with no change, and SMM 0 zinc ingot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 15 with a fall of 5 [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 273,300 with a fall of 600, and SMM 1 tin premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 300 with a rise of 200; 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 261,300 with a fall of 600, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.61% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 122,150 with a rise of 100, and 1 imported nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 300 with no change; 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 124,150 with a rise of 150, and 1 Jinchuan nickel premium/discount to the SHFE nickel contract average price is 2,300 with a rise of 50 [1]. Silicon - The average price of Tongyang 553 (Xinjiang) plus 800, considering regional discount + 200 and quality impurity removal, is 9,650 with a rise of 50, and 553 spot premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 950 with a rise of 1,050; 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 9,650, polycrystalline silicon dense material average price is 0, granular silicon average price is 0, and N - type polycrystalline silicon material average price is 51.55 [1]. Lithium - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 72,450 with no change, and battery - grade lithium carbonate premium/discount to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 190 with a fall of 1,340; Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 70,200, and the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,250 with no change [1].

Group 1: Company Overview and Activities - The company, Ningxia Dongfang Tantalum Industry Co., Ltd., held an investor activity on September 4, 2025, from 14:00 to 17:00 [2] - Participants included representatives from Western Securities and Bosera Fund, along with the company's chairman and vice general manager [2] Group 2: Production Expansion Plans - The company plans to invest in three capacity expansion projects using raised funds [2] - The projects include: - A digital factory for tantalum and niobium wet metallurgy with a production capacity of: - Potassium fluotantalate: 1,100 tons/year - Niobium pentoxide: 1,700 tons/year - High-purity niobium pentoxide: 150 tons/year - High-purity tantalum pentoxide: 50 tons/year - Tantalum-niobium compounds: 209.5 tons/year - By-product tin concentrate: 90 tons/year [3] - A smelting production line for tantalum and niobium with an expected capacity of: - Niobium: 860 tons/year - Tantalum: 80 tons/year - Niobium and niobium alloy bars: 74 tons/year - Tantalum and tantalum alloy bars (rods): 240 tons/year [3] - A high-end product line for tantalum and niobium with a capacity of 145 tons/year for tantalum-niobium plates and strips [3] Group 3: Raw Material Supply Chain - The company has secured a stable supply chain for tantalum and niobium raw materials through a binding equity acquisition of Brazil's Taboca Company [4] - A procurement contract for approximately 3,000 tons of iron niobium tantalum alloy has been signed with Taboca [4] Group 4: Cost Structure and Management - The primary cost component for the company is raw material procurement [5] - The company aims to enhance lean management and technological innovation to achieve scale and quality efficiency [5] - Ongoing capacity expansion projects are expected to improve both wet and dry metallurgy production capacities while strengthening quality management and cost control [5]

Group 1: Mining Production and Resources - In the first half of 2025, the company produced 1,849.93 tons of tungsten concentrate (WO3 65%), a year-on-year increase of 3.24% [2] - The production of tin concentrate (100% metal content) was 426.12 tons, up 2.71% year-on-year [2] - Copper concentrate (100% metal content) production reached 180.61 tons, reflecting a 2.02% increase year-on-year [2] - The company completed the preparation of the "Tao Xikeng (Expanded) Mineral Resource Development and Utilization Plan" and submitted it for review [3] Group 2: Cost and Price Impact - Mining costs are influenced by geological conditions, ore grades, management levels, and labor costs, leading to variability across different mines [4] - The rise in tungsten concentrate prices positively impacts the company, but significant fluctuations in raw material prices could affect production costs and operational performance [5] Group 3: Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, tungsten powder sales reached 2,657.83 tons, a year-on-year increase of 43.68% [6] - Sales of tungsten carbide powder were 2,975.12 tons, up 19.25% year-on-year [6] - Sales of hard alloys decreased by 7.17% to 573.92 tons, while thermal spray powder sales fell by 1.93% to 222.59 tons [6] Group 4: Subsidiary Performance - In the first half of 2025, Ganzhou Aoketai achieved operating revenue of 353.53 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.36% [7] - Sales revenue from hard alloy tools was 189.27 million yuan, up 2.26% year-on-year [7] - Sales revenue from bars increased by 28.30% to 143.40 million yuan [7] - Gaining profitability, Ganzhou Aoketai reported a net profit of 1.39 million yuan, recovering from a loss in the previous year [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 2.787 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.66%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 382 million yuan, up 9.49% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenues of 1.543 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.61% and a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [3]. - The growth in performance is primarily driven by rising prices of tin and antimony, alongside ongoing efficiency improvements [3]. - The company has stable production levels for tin and antimony concentrates, with tin ingot production increasing by 19.30% year-on-year [4]. - Significant improvements in profitability were noted across subsidiaries, with net profits for Huaxi Mining, Gaofeng Mining, and Fozu Mining increasing by 13.71%, 47.02%, and 123.53% respectively [4]. - Future growth potential is highlighted by ongoing projects aimed at increasing mining capacity and efficiency, including the expansion of the Gaofeng mine and the successful transition of exploration rights at the Tongkeng tin-zinc mine to mining rights [5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 5.709 billion yuan in 2025, 6.476 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.327 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.28%, 13.43%, and 13.15% respectively [5][8]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 829 million yuan in 2025, 953 million yuan in 2026, and 1.164 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 26.02%, 14.98%, and 22.17% respectively [5][8]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 24.32, 21.15, and 17.31 respectively [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][13]. Core Views - The company has entered an accelerated growth phase due to capacity release, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025. Revenue reached 797 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.45%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 145 million yuan, up 29.08% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its production capacity through a private placement plan, aiming to raise 1.2 billion yuan to enhance production capabilities in various areas, addressing equipment aging and capacity shortages [3]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the tantalum and niobium industry, with strong demand in high-end applications, which is expected to drive further growth in the coming years [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 797 million yuan, a 34.45% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 145 million yuan, reflecting a 29.08% growth. In Q2 2025, revenue was 459 million yuan, up 37.24% year-on-year and 35.65% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The tantalum and niobium main business generated an operating profit of approximately 104 million yuan in H1 2025, a 50.44% increase year-on-year [1]. Capacity Expansion - The private placement plan includes raising 1.2 billion yuan to enhance production capabilities, with specific allocations for wet metallurgy, pyrometallurgy, and high-end products [3]. - The wet metallurgy project will utilize 566 million yuan to establish new production lines for various tantalum and niobium products, significantly increasing overall production capacity [3]. Investment Returns - The company plans to distribute approximately 25.25 million yuan in cash dividends for H1 2025, representing 17.44% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4]. - The investment returns from the West Material Institute remained stable, contributing approximately 42 million yuan to the total profit [2]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 304 million yuan, 414 million yuan, and 545 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 34, 25, and 19 times [5][4].