1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the prices of ferroalloys may be low at first and then high. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - valuation range of alloys. The current prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron have limited downward space compared with the lows in the first half of the year. Short - term empty - position waiting is advisable, and mid - term opportunities to go long on dips after the seasonal decline of commodities can be focused on. The reference price range for the silicon manganese main contract is 5400 - 7000 yuan/ton, and for the silicon iron main contract is 5100 - 6600 yuan/ton [3][4][94]. - The supply - demand structure of ferroalloys will gradually return to a loose state in the fourth quarter. Although the inventory pressure in the statement has been released to some extent, the warehouse receipt levels of both silicon manganese and silicon iron are still at historical absolute highs, which significantly suppresses the spot prices. The demand for alloys still has short - term resilience but shows marginal weakening signs, and new production capacity will continue to be released in the fourth quarter [3][93]. - For silicon manganese, the port inventory of manganese ore has been at the lowest level in the past five years for ten consecutive months. High - grade ores such as those from Gabon have low inventories, and the concentration of oxide ore ownership is relatively high. Foreign manganese mines have raised their far - month quotes to China since the second half of the year, which provides strong short - term support for alloy prices. The price of silicon iron fluctuates around the coal price, and the industry profit has dropped to a low level in the same period. There is an expectation of supply tightening in the fourth quarter [3][93]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Silicon Manganese Fundamental Analysis 1.1 Market Review - In the first half of the year, the silicon manganese futures price hit a new low since 2017. After the "anti - involution" and capacity reduction on July 1st, the futures price center continued to move up and hit the daily limit at the end of the month. As of September 30th, the SM601 contract closed at 5758 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 11.1% compared with the highest point in July. The latest price of Jiangsu 6517 in the spot market was 5750 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 6.5% compared with the highest price in July. The silicon manganese procurement price of HeSteel Group in September was 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared with August [8]. 1.2 Silicon Manganese Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: From January to September, the total national silicon manganese output was 751.8 million tons, a decrease of about 1.6% compared with the same period last year. The third - quarter output was 262.7 million tons, an increase of about 1.4% compared with the same period last year. The average starting rate from July to September was about 44%, and the national starting rate continued to rise since the third quarter, reaching 45.9% in September. In the north, the starting rate was relatively stable, with the daily output in Inner Mongolia maintained at about 14,500 tons and that in Ningxia at about 6300 tons. In the third quarter, Yunnan entered the wet season, with the daily comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers at about 0.37 yuan/kWh, significantly lower than other regions. The starting rate in Yunnan has been above 90% for six consecutive weeks, with the daily output basically above 2000 tons, but its production capacity accounts for a relatively low proportion of the national total, and its impact on prices is relatively limited. As of September 26th, the sample enterprise inventory was 233,800 tons, at a high - level in the same period. The average available days of silicon manganese inventory in steel mills from July to September were 14.24, 14.98, and 15.93 respectively. The inventory levels in August and September were slightly higher than those of last year but still significantly lower than the previous average. The warehouse receipts have been decreasing since May, and as of September 30th, the total of silicon manganese warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was about 281,000 tons, a cumulative decrease of about 57% compared with the highest point in May [9][11][18]. - **Demand**: Except for the week of the military parade, the molten iron output in the third quarter basically remained above 2.4 million tons. As of October 3rd, 2025, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4181 million tons, second only to the same period in 2023. However, since this year, the performance of steel for housing construction has been poor, and the flow of molten iron in steel mills has shifted. The actual output and proportion of rebar, which accounts for the largest proportion of silicon manganese downstream demand, are also at a low level in the same period in recent years, making it difficult to support the actual demand for silicon manganese. The tender volume in the third quarter increased month - on - month, and the replenishment demand in the peak seasons of August and September was released. The overall level was higher than that of last year. The downstream price - pressing intention was still strong, and the procurement price of the iconic steel mill in September was 5800 yuan/ton, not exceeding market expectations. After the National Day holiday, the short - term molten iron output still provides stable support for the demand for silicon manganese, but the apparent demand for rebar has shown signs of weakening. In the fourth quarter, the actual demand for silicon manganese may decline under pressure, and the weak demand will still suppress prices [23]. 1.3 Silicon Manganese Cost - Profit Analysis - **Cost - Profit**: As of September 30th, the production cost of silicon manganese in the northern region was 5829 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of - 168 yuan/ton; in the southern region, the production cost was 6236 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of - 547 yuan/ton. The cost line in the production areas gradually moved up in the third quarter. From the perspective of spot profit, the industry suffered losses for most of the time, with the northern spot profit maintained at - 50 to - 200 yuan/ton and the southern spot profit at - 400 to - 550 yuan/ton. Currently, the profit in some production areas is acceptable (such as Inner Mongolia and Yunnan). After the holiday, some new production capacity will enter the ignition period. The wet season in the southwest is coming to an end, and attention should be paid to the profit changes in the production areas in mid - to - late October [28]. - **Manganese Ore Price**: In the third quarter, the port manganese ore price did not rise or fall significantly. Traders maintained their intention to hold prices, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced ore was limited, so the ore price generally fluctuated within a range following the futures price. For foreign ores, as of the end of September, the quotes of some mines for November to China continued to rise, but the increase was relatively limited. The price difference between high - grade ores in Tianjin Port was basically maintained at 1 - 2 yuan/ton degree. The price of South32 Australian blocks was basically the same as that of Gabonese blocks. The difference in inventory structure between the two ports was mainly reflected in semi - carbonate ore, with the ownership of semi - carbonate ore in Qinzhou Port being relatively concentrated and the price being relatively firm [35]. - **Manganese Ore Supply - Demand Analysis**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of manganese ore in China was 20.689 million tons, an increase of 1.817 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In August, the import volume of manganese ore was 3.486 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 742,000 tons (a 27.1% increase) and a year - on - year increase of 875,000 tons (a 33.5% increase). The countries with the largest import shares were South Africa, Australia, and Ghana. The import volume of Gabonese manganese ore decreased significantly in the third quarter. The port inventory has been rising since the second quarter, but it is still significantly lower than the same period in the past five years. As of September 26th, the national manganese ore port inventory was 4.478 million tons, with a three - year percentile of 20.5%; the inventory in Tianjin Port was 3.761 million tons, with a three - year percentile of 20.6%. The inventory of Australian ore has returned to a neutral level in the past three years, and the inventory levels of Gabonese blocks in both ports are significantly low. The inventory of medium - and low - grade ores in Tianjin Port is relatively abundant, and the inventory of South African semi - carbonate in Qinzhou Port is 204,000 tons, with a high concentration of ownership [45][55]. - **Other Costs**: The electricity price in Yunnan is significantly lower than that in other production areas. Attention should be paid to the electricity bill settlement in each production area in September [64]. Chapter 2: Silicon Iron Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Market Review - Since the "anti - involution" on July 1st, the silicon iron futures price center continued to move up and hit the daily limit at the end of the month. As of September 30th, the SM511 contract closed at 5494 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 14.5% compared with the highest point in July. The latest price of Jiangsu silicon iron 72 in the spot market was 5750 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 3.4% compared with the highest price in July. The silicon iron procurement price of HeSteel Group in September was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton compared with August [67]. 2.2 Silicon Iron Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: From January to September, the total national silicon iron output was 4.119 million tons, an increase of about 1.4% compared with the same period last year. The third - quarter output was 1.428 million tons, basically the same as that of last year. The average starting rate from July to September was about 57.4%, and the national starting rate continued to rise since the third quarter, slightly dropping to 58.8% in September. The daily output in Ningxia was maintained at about 4000 tons, and that in Inner Mongolia increased to over 5000 tons. The starting rates in Qinghai and Shaanxi were relatively stable, and the starting rate in Gansu was lower than that in other regions. The overall inventory level of production enterprises was at a relatively high position in the same period in the first half of the year. In the third quarter, the futures price continued to rise, and manufacturers were actively hedging, with part of the inventory transferred to the delivery warehouse. The warehouse receipts increased rapidly after being cancelled in June. As of August 6th, the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was about 117,000 tons, at a high - level in the same period. Currently, it has entered the centralized cancellation period again, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts being re - warehoused after cancellation. In the fourth quarter, as the downstream demand weakens, the inventory pressure in the production areas may further increase [68][70]. - **Demand**: From January to August, the cumulative apparent consumption of silicon iron was about 3.486 million tons, an increase of about 4.2% compared with the same period last year. The demand for crude steel in the third quarter was only higher than that of last year, but the situation in 2024 was relatively special, and the actual downstream demand this year was still significantly lower than the previous level. In terms of the tender volume of steel mills, the procurement volume in September exceeded market expectations, with the procurement quantity of HeSteel being 3151 tons, at the highest level in the past five years. However, the price - pressing intention was still strong, and the procurement prices of most steel mills in September were reduced by 200 - 250 yuan/ton compared with the previous round. In terms of exports, from January to August 2025, the cumulative export quantity of silicon iron in China was 254,200 tons, a decrease of 25,800 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. In August, the export volume of silicon iron with a silicon content greater than 55% was 3.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. The demand in the non - steel field still has resilience. From January to August 2025, the national magnesium ingot output was 580,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.8%. The domestic magnesium metal market performed well in the third quarter, with the price increasing significantly compared with the previous period, and the overall export of magnesium ingots in July and August was good, providing certain support for the alloy demand [78]. 2.3 Silicon Iron Cost - Profit Analysis - **Cost - Profit**: As of September 30th, the production cost of silicon iron in Ningxia was 5684 yuan/ton, with an immediate profit of - 454 yuan/ton, and the cost increased by about 400 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of July. The cost line in the production areas gradually moved up in the third quarter, and the current loss in the production areas is relatively serious, with the spot profit in the whole production area ranging from - 300 to - 500 yuan/ton [83]. - **Raw Material End**: The coal price continued to decline in shock in the first half of the year, and the thermal coal price fell below the annual long - term contract price, and the loose supply - demand pattern in the industry was difficult to break. In the third quarter, the coal price showed a stable and rising trend. Affected by the price of raw material lump coal, the semi - coke price rebounded from the bottom, and the market experienced multiple rounds of price increases. As of September 30th, the latest price of small materials in Shaanxi was 700 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 120 - 160 yuan/ton compared with the end of the second quarter. Since this year, the new - energy installed capacity has maintained a high - speed growth trend. As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power - generation capacity in the country was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%. The installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 48.5%; the installed capacity of wind power was 580 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. The electricity price in the production areas has changed frequently this year, and the electricity cost has generally shown an upward trend in the second half of the year. Currently, the comprehensive electricity cost of manufacturers in Inner Mongolia is 0.41 - 0.42 yuan/kWh, that in Ningxia has risen to 0.4 yuan/kWh, that in Qinghai has risen to 0.39 - 0.4 yuan/kWh, and the electricity cost in Gansu and Shaanxi is mostly concentrated at 0.4 - 0.42 yuan/kWh. Currently, the production cost in Qinghai is the lowest (about 5550 yuan/ton), that in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is 5670 - 5700 yuan/ton, and that in Shaanxi is the highest (above 5730 yuan/ton) [89][91]. Chapter 3: Ferroalloy Fourth - Quarter Market Outlook - The current daily average output of silicon manganese is about 30,000 tons, and that of silicon iron is about 16,500 tons, both at high levels in the same period. The inventory pressure in the statement has been released to some extent, but the warehouse receipt levels of both are still at historical absolute highs, which significantly suppresses the spot prices. The demand for alloys still has short - term resilience but shows marginal weakening signs, and new production capacity will continue to be released in the fourth quarter. The supply - demand structure of ferroalloys will gradually return to a loose state [93]. - For silicon manganese, the port inventory of manganese ore has been at the lowest level in the past five years for ten consecutive months. High - grade ores such as those from Gabon have low inventories, and the concentration of oxide ore ownership is relatively high. Foreign manganese mines have raised their far - month quotes to China since the second half of the year, which provides strong short - term support for alloy prices. The price of silicon iron fluctuates around the coal price, and the industry profit has dropped to a low level in the same period. There is an expectation of supply tightening in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes in the production areas and the situation of warehouse receipts being re - warehoused after cancellation [93]. - As of September 30th, the closing price of the silicon manganese continuous contract was 5628 yuan/ton, and that of the silicon iron continuous contract was 5310 yuan/ton, corresponding to historical percentile values of 9.6% and 13.7% respectively. The current prices have limited downward space compared with the lows in the first half of the year. In October, attention should be paid to the changes in coal prices and macro - sentiment