Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In April, the prices of manganese-silicon futures and spot both declined weakly due to limited supply contraction, unalleviated industrial contradictions, and the downward pressure on manganese ore prices [3][7]. - The inventory structure of manganese-silicon has changed. Steel mills' inventory remains low, while producers' inventory has increased, and the exchange warehouse receipts have reached a high level, intensifying inventory pressure and indicating that the supply-demand contradiction has not been alleviated, which continuously suppresses price trends [3][28]. - Overseas tariff disturbances continue, but their impact on manganese-silicon trends will weaken, and the dominant logic will gradually shift to the industrial side. However, steel prices performed poorly during the peak season, and demand will shift to the off-season, which may affect the demand for related raw materials and lead to a weakening of manganese-silicon demand. Meanwhile, the expected supply contraction of manganese ore has not materialized, and its demand has weakened recently. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, manganese ore prices will remain under pressure, further dragging down manganese-silicon prices [3][8]. - In the future, the pressure of the industrial contradiction in manganese-silicon remains high. Whether it can be improved depends on the expansion of supply contraction, i.e., increasing the production cut. However, new production capacities are still being put into operation in the main production areas, so the supply benefits are expected to be limited. Overall, the supply-demand contradiction of manganese-silicon is difficult to resolve, and with the downward pressure on costs, manganese-silicon prices will continue to decline weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of manganese-silicon enterprises [3][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Manganese-silicon Weakly Declined in April - In April, due to limited supply contraction, unalleviated industrial contradictions, and the downward pressure on manganese ore prices, the prices of manganese-silicon futures and spot both declined weakly. As of April 25, the main manganese-silicon futures price closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, a 5.66% decline from the end of last month. The spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Tianjin also decreased significantly. The tender prices of mainstream steel mills also declined, with Hegang's April tender price at 5,950 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 450 yuan [7]. - Looking ahead, overseas tariff disturbances will continue to impact manganese-silicon trends, but their impact will weaken. The dominant logic will gradually shift to the industrial side. However, steel prices performed poorly during the peak season, and demand will shift to the off-season, which may affect the demand for related raw materials and lead to a weakening of manganese-silicon demand. Meanwhile, the expected supply contraction of manganese ore has not materialized, and its demand has weakened recently. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, manganese ore prices will remain under pressure, further dragging down manganese-silicon prices [8] 2. Manganese-silicon Inventory Increased and the Structure was Significantly Differentiated - Speculative demand weakened, and manganese-silicon producers' inventory continued to accumulate. As of the week of April 25, the total in-plant inventory of manganese-silicon was 181,800 tons, an increase of 33,200 tons from the end of last month, continuing the accumulation trend since March. Most regions saw inventory accumulation, with the largest increase in Ningxia. Inner Mongolia saw a slight inventory reduction, and the southern region also saw inventory accumulation [16]. - Steel mills' manganese-silicon inventory decreased at a low level. The available days of manganese-silicon inventory for steel mills in April were 15.44 days, a month-on-month decrease of 1.17 days. The available days of inventory in most regions decreased significantly, and most regions' inventory was lower than the same period last year. Steel mills will continue to maintain a low-inventory production strategy, and the low-inventory pattern will continue [22]. - The inventory of manganese-silicon producers and steel mills is at a low level, but the positive effect is not strong because most of the inventory is in the social inventory, especially in the futures-spot trading. The warehouse receipts of manganese-silicon on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange have been at a high level, which will suppress the price of near-term contracts in the long term and intensify industrial contradictions if the warehouse receipts flow into the spot market [25] 3. Manganese-silicon Enterprises Reduced Production and Supply Contracted - Similar to previous years, the production of manganese-silicon increased seasonally in March. In March 2025, the production of manganese-silicon was 899,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 95,200 tons, or 11.85%. The cumulative production from January to March was 2.59 million tons, a year-on-year slight decrease of 1.09%. The production in each production area increased in March, especially in the main production areas [29]. - Since late March, manganese-silicon producers have started to reduce production, and supply has contracted. As of the week of April 25, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese-silicon enterprises was 41.59%, and the daily average production was 28,580 tons, a decrease of 6.63% and 1,910 tons respectively from the end of last month. The production in the main production areas decreased significantly, and the southern region also reduced production due to increased losses [34]. - The supply contraction of manganese-silicon is mainly due to the continuous losses of enterprises. As of April 24, the production costs of manganese-silicon in the southern and northern regions were 6,253 yuan/ton and 5,813 yuan/ton respectively, a month-on-month decrease of 477 yuan and 282 yuan respectively. However, the industry still showed a large-scale loss. Manganese ore prices have continued to weaken, and the cost decline has also dragged down manganese-silicon prices. The supply and demand pattern of manganese ore is expected to weaken, and the coke price is also difficult to get rid of the shock bottom-finding situation, which may drive the cost of manganese-silicon down [38][40] 4. Manganese-silicon Demand Improved, but Concerns Remained - During the peak season, steel mills actively produced, which improved the demand for raw materials, and the demand for manganese-silicon also increased. As of the week of April 25, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills reached a new high this year, and the weekly demand for manganese-silicon also increased. However, the improvement in demand did not alleviate the industrial contradiction, as the inventory of manganese-silicon continued to accumulate at a high level due to limited supply contraction [51]. - Whether the demand for manganese-silicon can be maintained needs to be monitored. On the one hand, steel prices were weak during the peak season, and the profitability of steel mills has changed. Although the profit ratio of 247 steel mills remained at a relatively high level, the profit of mainstream steel products continued to shrink. On the other hand, there are concerns about steel demand under the tariff risk, and the incremental space for raw material demand is limited. The real estate market is still in the process of repair, and the demand for construction steel continues to be weak. Although the investment in domestic manufacturing is good, there are concerns under the overseas risk [52] 5. Outlook for the Future - The supply contraction of manganese-silicon is limited, the industrial contradiction is not alleviated, and the prices of manganese-silicon futures and spot will continue to decline weakly under the downward pressure on costs. The inventory pressure has increased, and the supply-demand contradiction has not been alleviated, which will continue to suppress price trends [3][61]. - Overseas tariff disturbances will continue to impact manganese-silicon trends, but their impact will weaken. The dominant logic will gradually shift to the industrial side. However, steel prices performed poorly during the peak season, and demand will shift to the off-season, which may affect the demand for related raw materials and lead to a weakening of manganese-silicon demand. Meanwhile, the expected supply contraction of manganese ore has not materialized, and its demand has weakened recently. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, manganese ore prices will remain under pressure, further dragging down manganese-silicon prices [3][8] - In the future, the pressure of the industrial contradiction in manganese-silicon remains high. Whether it can be improved depends on the expansion of supply contraction, i.e., increasing the production cut. However, new production capacities are still being put into operation in the main production areas, so the supply benefits are expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the production situation of manganese-silicon enterprises [3][8]