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硅铁:市场交易情绪波动,盘面偏弱震荡,锰硅:矿端需求预期收紧,盘面偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report focuses on the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon markets, indicating that the demand expectation at the ore end is tightening, and the market is in a weak and volatile state [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of FeSi2605 and FeSi2607 are 5874 and 6014 respectively, with changes of - 192 and - 176 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 166,212 and 112,877, and the open interests are 158,901 and 129,988 [2]. - For manganese - silicon, the closing prices of MnSi2605 and MnSi2607 are 6444 and 6488 respectively, with a change of - 144 for both compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 359,939 and 108,775, and the open interests are 353,594 and 162,450 [2]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6330 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 47.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of blue carbon small material in Shenmu is 765 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spread Data**: - The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 05 futures) is - 244 yuan/ton, up 162 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread of manganese - silicon (spot - 05 futures) is - 114 yuan/ton, up 174 yuan/ton [2]. - The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2605 - 2607 is - 140 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton, and that of manganese - silicon 2605 - 2607 is - 44 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The cross - variety spread of manganese - silicon 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 is 570 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan/ton, and that of manganese - silicon 2607 - ferrosilicon 2607 is 474 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: - On March 31, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and that of 75 ferrosilicon is 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton. The FOB prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon are 1150 - 1170 (+10) and 1180 - 1200 (+10) US dollars/ton respectively [2]. - The northern quotation of silicon - manganese 6517 is 6300 - 6350 (+100) yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 6350 - 6450 (+50) yuan/ton [2]. - **Production and Capacity**: - In March, the production of various grades of silicon - manganese in Ningxia was about 20.83 tons (+1.53 tons), and in Inner Mongolia, it was about 45.05 tons (+2.12 tons) [4]. - As of March 31, 7 factories in the northern main production areas have announced production cuts, involving 14 furnace reductions. Other factories plan to cut production in April [4]. - Since April 1, many companies have carried out production cuts, such as Jitie reducing 2 silicon - manganese electric furnaces, Guangxi Ferroalloy Co., Ltd. reducing production of 6 * 12500KVA high - manganese furnaces, etc. [4]. - **Procurement and Tendering**: - Shanghai Manganese Union Technology Co., Ltd. issued a procurement announcement for South African high - iron manganese ore on March 31, with different purchase prices for different manganese content [4]. - A steel mill in Jiangsu set the silicon - manganese price at 6580 yuan/ton for procurement of 2000 tons at the end of March, and the mid - month price was 6095/6100 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is - 1, and that of manganese - silicon is - 1 [4].
不怕一万,就怕万一?
Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon market is expected to be weak. The market anticipates significant production cuts in the future. This week, production decreased month - on - month, demand declined slightly, and the overall supply - demand remains in an oversupply state. There are concerns about the supply of raw materials for overseas mines, which may affect the mining rhythm in the long term. The price of port manganese ore has risen significantly, and the immediate production profit of alloy plants has been mostly consumed by manganese ore. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy of near - weak and far - strong [3]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon market is also expected to be weak. The tight balance of supply and demand has eased, the overall production cost is relatively firm, production has decreased slightly, and the production of magnesium metal has declined significantly from its high level. Factory quotes have increased, and low - priced goods are hard to find in the market. The market still has expectations of cost increases in the coal - related industrial chain due to crude oil shortages, and price fluctuations are relatively large. Fundamentally, it is recommended to take a bearish stance, but be vigilant about future coal - related prices [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Manganese Ore Inventory - The total port inventory of manganese ore is 474.5 tons, with a slight increase month - on - month. Tianjin Port's inventory increased slightly to 341.4 tons, significantly higher than the same period last year, and Qinzhou Port's inventory increased slightly to 132.6 tons, also significantly higher than the same period last year [14]. - In Tianjin Port, the inventory of South African ore decreased slightly to 237.2 tons, the inventory of Gabon ore decreased significantly to 21.9 tons, far lower than the same period last year, and the inventory of Australian ore decreased significantly to 43.7 tons, still higher than the same period last year [18]. Manganese Ore Price - In Tianjin Port, the price of Gabon lumps is 48 yuan/ton - degree, Australian lumps are 47 yuan/ton - degree, and South African semi - carbonate is 44 yuan/ton - degree. The manganese ore market is running strongly, and most market transactions are of a trading nature, while factories are cautious in purchasing and mostly only replenish a small amount of essential inventory [20]. Production - As of March 27, the weekly production of silicon - manganese increased to 19.17 tons. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly to 14,460 tons/day, in Ningxia decreased slightly to 5,705 tons/day, in Yunnan increased to 890 tons/day, in Guizhou increased to 1,905 tons/day, and in Guangxi increased to 1,970 tons/day [32]. Demand - As of March 27, the weekly demand of Mysteel sample enterprises was 11.88 tons, and the weekly production of the five major steel products decreased to 839.58 tons. The proportion of rebar in the five major steel products in Mysteel sample data increased significantly month - on - month [37]. Price - The market price in Inner Mongolia is around 6,230 yuan/ton, and in Tianjin it is 6,300 yuan/ton. A large steel group in Hebei set the purchase price at 6,150 yuan/ton in March and replenished 5,100 tons this week [50]. Chemical Coke Price - This week, the price of chemical coke increased slightly by 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory prices of 25 - 40mm in Yinchuan, Ordos, and Alxa are 1,190, 1,140, and 1,140 yuan/ton respectively [53]. Production Profit - The point - to - point profit of manganese silicon has improved significantly [57]. Month - Spread - As of March 26, the 5 - 9 month - spread of manganese silicon was - 58 yuan/ton, continuing to fluctuate at a low level [60]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is fluctuating and consolidating, and the basis has strengthened slightly. As of March 26, the total of manganese silicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 28.85 tons [64]. Ferrosilicon Production - As of March 27, on the supply side, the weekly production was 10.21 tons, slightly decreasing month - on - month. The daily average production in Inner Mongolia was 5,275 tons, in Qinghai was 1,535 tons, in Ningxia was 4,080 tons, and in Shaanxi was 2,210 tons [76]. Demand - The consumption of ferrosilicon by Mysteel sample steel mills totaled 1.93 tons, lower than the same period last year [80]. - The export price of magnesium metal at Tianjin Port is 2,515 US dollars/ton, and the market price is 17,050 yuan/ton, increasing slightly month - on - month. The weekly production of magnesium metal was 19,446 tons, decreasing slightly month - on - month but higher than the same period last year. Recently, the prices of raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon have been high, and the price of magnesium ingots has increased accordingly. Low - priced goods in the market are hard to find. Some traders said they are mainly inquiring and not in a hurry to stock up [84]. Export - As of March 27, the overseas FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon was 1,205 US dollars/ton, and that of 72 ferrosilicon was 1,135 US dollars/ton, increasing significantly month - on - month. The export volume of ferrosilicon decreased in February [87]. Raw Material Situation - As of March 27, the quotes of mainstream regional semi - coke small materials remained stable. The current prices are 705 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 805 yuan/ton in Ningxia, and 695 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price of iron oxide scale is 730 yuan/ton [95]. Production Profit - As of March 26, the point - to - point profit of ferrosilicon has improved significantly. The production profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Qinghai are 156, 225, 101, and - 193 yuan/ton respectively [110]. Month - Spread - As of March 26, the 5 - 9 month - spread of ferrosilicon was - 80 yuan/ton, weakening significantly month - on - month [113]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The futures price is fluctuating and consolidating, and the basis of ferrosilicon fluctuates slightly. As of March 26, the total of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5.81 tons, higher than the same period last year [116]. Balance Sheet Manganese Silicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of manganese silicon show different trends. There are periods of oversupply and tight supply. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also change over time [119]. Ferrosilicon - From July 2025 to June 2026, the total supply and demand of ferrosilicon also show different trends. There are periods of oversupply and tight supply. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption also change over time [120].
产业格局偏弱,锰硅谨慎乐观
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 02:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market operation logic of ferrosilicon manganese switches between strong cost support and a weak current situation. In the first quarter, the price of ferrosilicon manganese first declined and then rose, showing a "V" - shaped trend [3][4][8]. - The inventory of ferrosilicon manganese in steel mills has decreased, but the replenishment momentum is weak, which is unlikely to relieve the inventory pressure of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises. With the recent price increase of ferrosilicon manganese, enterprises have increased hedging, and the warehouse receipts on the exchange have increased, but the inventory has not been effectively reduced, and it is mostly concentrated in the main production areas. The overall inventory remains high, which continues to suppress the price trend of ferrosilicon manganese [3][27][58]. - The production of ferrosilicon manganese enterprises has stabilized, and the output of ferrosilicon manganese has run smoothly in the first quarter. However, with the increase in the price of ferrosilicon manganese, the profitability of enterprises has improved, the factors suppressing production have weakened, and with the release of new production capacity, the supply of ferrosilicon manganese will increase. Coupled with the high inventory in the factory, the pressure has not been relieved. At the same time, there is no substantial change in the supply - demand pattern of manganese ore, and the high valuation has the downward - adjustment momentum, while the electricity price will decline seasonally, and the cost support effect is to be changed. Attention should be paid to the changes in the ore end [3][49][58]. - The recovery of steel mill production in the first quarter has brought marginal improvement in the demand for ferrosilicon manganese, but the product structure of steel has changed, and the overall performance is still weak. At present, the production of steel mills continues to recover seasonally, supporting the stable operation of the demand for ferrosilicon manganese. However, due to the unresolved industrial contradictions in the steel market, it is difficult to support a significant increase in steel mill production, especially for construction steel. The subsequent demand growth space is limited, and the positive effect is not strong [3][50][58]. - In general,the market operation logic of ferrosilicon manganese continues to switch between strong cost and weak reality. The strength of the ore end provides cost support for ferrosilicon manganese, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. The current situation is weak, and the subsequent trend should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the changes in the ore end and the production situation of domestic ferrosilicon manganese enterprises [4][9][60]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Quarter: Ferrosilicon Manganese First Declined and Then Rose - In 2026, the market operation logic of ferrosilicon manganese switched between strong cost support and a weak current situation. Coupled with the disturbance of the Middle East conflict, the price of ferrosilicon manganese first declined and then rose, showing a "V" - shaped trend. The main contract price of ferrosilicon manganese dropped from the high of 6074 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 5714 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 5.93%. After the Spring Festival, it rose strongly, reaching a maximum of 6720 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 17.61% from the low. As of March 27, it closed at 6580 yuan/ton, a 10.85% increase from the end of the previous quarter [8]. - The spot price of ferrosilicon manganese also first declined and then rose. As of March 27, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, and Ningxia were 6230 yuan/ton, 6350 yuan/ton, and 6120 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 580 yuan, 620 yuan, and 550 yuan in the first quarter, and increases of 10.27%, 10.82%, and 9.87% respectively [8]. - In the first quarter, the basis of ferrosilicon manganese was at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the variety spread continued to run at a low level. The regional spread conformed to the seasonal characteristics of previous years. The speculative demand was weak, and the price in Ningxia was weaker than that in Inner Mongolia [9]. 3.2 High Inventory of Ferrosilicon Manganese - The in - factory inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises remained high, and the de - stocking pressure was unresolved. As of the week of March 27, the total in - factory inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises was 37.28 tons, a decrease of 1.32 tons in the first quarter. Most regions had a limited decrease in inventory, and the inventory in the main production areas remained high [14][15][27]. - The inventory of ferrosilicon manganese in steel mills first increased and then decreased in the first quarter, showing an overall inventory accumulation trend. After the festival, the inventory decreased, but the replenishment momentum was weak, which was unlikely to relieve the in - factory inventory pressure of production enterprises [18][22][27]. - The warehouse receipts of ferrosilicon manganese on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange continued to rise in the first quarter. As of March 27, the number of warehouse receipts was 55086, and the effective forecast volume was 2800, equivalent to 28.94 tons of ferrosilicon manganese, an increase of 13.10 tons in the first quarter [25]. 3.3 Stable and Rising Supply of Ferrosilicon Manganese - Affected by the holiday factor, the output of ferrosilicon manganese decreased in February. The output in the first two months of 2026 was lower than that in the same period of last year, mainly due to the reduction in the main production areas [29]. - Benefiting from the continuous release of new production capacity, the output of ferrosilicon manganese will increase in the future. In 2025, the cumulative output of domestic ferrosilicon manganese was 1012.64 tons, a decrease of 0.22%. The monthly in - production capacity in 2025 increased by 15.05% year - on - year, and the to - be - put - into - production capacity in 2026 was as high as 308.65 tons [30]. - High - frequency data showed that the output of ferrosilicon manganese changed little in the first quarter, and the supply was stable. It is expected that the supply of ferrosilicon manganese will increase steadily in the second quarter [35][36][49]. - The increase in the price of ferrosilicon manganese was driven by the ore end, and the profit of ferrosilicon manganese also improved. However, the supply - demand pattern of manganese ore did not change substantially, and the high valuation had the downward - adjustment momentum. The cost support effect of ferrosilicon manganese was to be changed, and attention should be paid to the changes in the ore end [41][46][49]. 3.4 Limited Improvement in Ferrosilicon Manganese Demand - In the first quarter, the production of steel mills gradually recovered, driving the marginal improvement of the demand for related raw materials. The demand for ferrosilicon manganese showed a low - level recovery trend, but due to the low output of building materials, the overall increase was limited and still at a low level in the same period in recent years [50]. - The recovery of steel mill production brought marginal improvement in the demand for ferrosilicon manganese, but due to the change in the product structure, the increase in demand was limited, and the overall performance was still weak. The subsequent demand growth space was limited, and the positive effect was not strong [50][51]. 3.5 Outlook for the Future - The market operation logic of ferrosilicon manganese continues to switch between strong cost and weak reality. The strength of the ore end provides cost support for ferrosilicon manganese, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. The current situation is weak, and the subsequent trend should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the changes in the ore end and the production situation of domestic ferrosilicon manganese enterprises [4][60].
硅铁:成本预期小幅抬升,多头情绪高涨,锰硅,能源信息扰动,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 02:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The manganese - silicon market experiences wide - amplitude fluctuations due to energy information disturbances [2] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of silicon - iron 2605, silicon - iron 2607, manganese - silicon 2605, and manganese - silicon 2607 are 6066, 6190, 6588, and 6632 respectively. Their trading volumes are 136,071, 73,455, 310,986, and 115,142 respectively, and their open interests are 171,561, 138,591, 366,873, and 153,258 respectively [2] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon - iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5660 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6300 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 47.5 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 765 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference of silicon - iron (spot - 05 futures) is - 406 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference of manganese - silicon (spot - 05 futures) is - 288 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton; the near - far month price difference of silicon - iron 2605 - 2607 is - 124 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the near - far month price difference of manganese - silicon 2605 - 2607 is - 44 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton; the cross - variety price difference of manganese - silicon 2605 - silicon - iron 2605 is 522 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton; the cross - variety price difference of manganese - silicon 2607 - silicon - iron 2607 is 442 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On March 30, the price range of 72 silicon - iron in different regions is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, with some regions having price changes; the price range of 75 silicon - iron is 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton, with some regions having price increases. The FOB price of 72 silicon - iron is 1150 - 1170 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton; the FOB price of 75 silicon - iron is 1180 - 1200 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton. The northern quote of 6517 silicon - manganese is 6200 - 6250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the southern quote is 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton [2] - **Manganese Ore Inventory Information**: As of March 27, the inventory of Tianjin Port is 371.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32.71 million tons; the inventory of Qinzhou Port is 125.32 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.86 million tons; the inventory of Caofeidian Port is 0 million tons; the inventory of Fangcheng Port is 4.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons. The total manganese ore inventory is 501.27 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.45 million tons [4] - **Enterprise Production Information**: A silicon - iron plant in Shenmu, Shaanxi is overhauling 1 40500kva silicon - iron furnace, and the overhaul duration is uncertain. Ningxia Shengyuan Metal Materials Co., Ltd. has powered on 1 33000kva silicon - iron furnace and produced iron. Gansu Xinyutong has resumed production of 2 33000kva silicon - iron furnaces and produced iron [4] - **Regional Production Statistics**: In March, there are 13 silicon - iron enterprises in production in Qinghai, with 41 ore - heating furnaces in production. The March start - up rate is 41%, the same as in February, and the expected output is 5.17 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons compared with February, with a capacity release of 36.54%. In March, there are 15 silicon - iron enterprises in production in Shaanxi, with 25 ore - heating furnaces in production. The March start - up rate is 41.67%, a decrease of 11.66% compared with February, and the expected output is 6.16 million tons, a decrease of 0.61 million tons compared with February, with a capacity release of 41.12% [4] - **Manganese Ore Pricing Information**: United Mining (CML) announced the price offer to China in May 2026. The price of Australian lumps with Mn>46%, Fe < 4%, and SiO2 < 18% is 6 dollars/ton - degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 dollars/ton - degree [4] - **Steel Mill Procurement Information**: A steel mill in East China set the standard for silicon - manganese at 6670 yuan/ton, with a procurement volume of 1000 tons. A large steel group in Hebei issued a new round of silicon - manganese procurement tender in March, with a procurement volume of 5100 tons and a first - round inquiry price of 6300 yuan/ton. A steel mill in Shandong set the new standard for silicon - manganese at 6470 yuan/ton, with a procurement volume of 500 tons. The Rizhao company of a steel mill in Shandong finalized the silicon - iron procurement price at 6080 yuan/ton, an increase of up to 380 yuan/ton compared with the previous round, with a volume of 300 tons [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon - iron is 0, and the trend intensity of manganese - silicon is 0 [4]
硅铁:板块情绪扰动,现货表现平淡;锰硅:能源信息扰动,多头情绪高涨
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 05:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals and market news of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. Energy information disturbances have led to high bullish sentiment in the silicomanganese market [1]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures contracts**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2605 and 2607 are 6012 and 6146 respectively, with changes of 30 and 22 compared to the previous trading day. The closing prices of silicomanganese 2605 and 2607 are 6580 and 6620 respectively, with changes of 146 and 148 [1]. - **Spot prices**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6230 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 47.5 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. The price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 765 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price differences**: The spot - 05 futures price difference of ferrosilicon is - 382 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese is - 350 yuan/ton, down 146 yuan/ton. The near - far month price difference of ferrosilicon 2605 - 2607 is - 134 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese 2605 - 2607 is - 40 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price difference of silicomanganese 2605 - ferrosilicon 2605 is 568 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan/ton; that of silicomanganese 2607 - ferrosilicon 2607 is 474 yuan/ton, up 126 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Product prices**: On March 27, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions is 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton, and that of 75 is 5950 - 6100 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1150 - 1170 dollars/ton (+10), and that of 75 is 1170 - 1190 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 6200 - 6300 yuan/ton (+100), and the southern quotation is 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Manganese ore inventory**: As of March 27, the inventory in Tianjin Port is 371.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 32.71 million tons; the inventory in Qinzhou Port is 125.32 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.86 million tons; the inventory in Caofeidian Port is 0 million tons; the inventory in Fangcheng Port is 4.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 million tons. The total manganese ore inventory is 501.27 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.45 million tons [3]. - **Price quotation**: United Mining (CML) announced the quotation for China in May 2026. The Australian block with Mn>46%, Fe<4%, and SiO2<18% is quoted at 6 dollars/ton - degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 dollars/ton - degree [3]. - **Enterprise production**: Ningxia Shengyuan Metal Materials Co., Ltd. powered on one 33000kva ferrosilicon furnace and produced iron. Gansu Xinyutong resumed production of two 33000kva ferrosilicon furnaces and produced iron [3]. - **Steel mill procurement**: A large steel group in Hebei issued a new round of silicomanganese procurement tender in March, with a procurement volume of 5100 tons and a first - round inquiry price of 6300 yuan/ton. A steel mill in Shandong set the latest bid for silicomanganese at 6470 yuan/ton cash - inclusive to the factory, with a procurement volume of 500 tons. The Rizhao company of a steel mill in Shandong finalized the ferrosilicon procurement price at 6080 yuan/ton cash, a 380 - yuan/ton increase from the previous round, with a volume of 300 tons [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 1 [3]
能源价格扰动下,锰矿资源安全性越发重要
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 00:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The strategic importance of manganese ore resources is increasingly prominent, but the silicon - manganese industry is in a supply - demand dilemma. The supply disturbances of major manganese ore exporters, fluctuations in shipping costs, and geopolitical risks may drive up ore prices, providing rigid support for silicon - manganese from the cost side. However, the silicon - manganese industry has over - capacity and weak downstream demand, eroding industry profits. The resolution of the industrial chain contradictions requires proactive adjustments on the supply side and industry self - discipline [2][15]. - Manganese ore resources are highly concentrated, with low - grade ores in China. In 2025, the global manganese metal equivalent reserves are about 1.8 billion tons, mainly concentrated in South Africa, Australia, Brazil, and China. China's manganese ore has low overall quality and low grade [3][16][75]. - China has a high degree of dependence on manganese ore imports, and some countries are tightening export controls. In 2025, China's manganese ore imports reached 32.84 million tons, a 9.7% increase from 2024. South Africa, Australia, Gabon, and Ghana are the main suppliers, but these countries are expected to introduce export restrictions [4][29][76]. - The production of major manganese mines shows differentiation, with a slight overall increase. From the fourth quarter of 2025 to early 2026, South32's Australian mine resumed production smoothly, Comilog was restricted by transportation bottlenecks, and Tshipi maintained stable operations [5][54][77]. - The manganese ore inventory at ports has increased, but the supply - demand contradiction of alloy enterprises still exists. In 2025, China's manganese ore imports increased significantly, leading to an increase in port inventory. However, alloy enterprises still face great pressure, with low silicon - manganese operating rates and low weekly output [6][62][78]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Manganese Resource Concentration and Low - Grade Ores in China - In 2025, the global manganese metal equivalent reserves are about 1.8 billion tons, with 92% concentrated in South Africa (30%), Australia (32%), Brazil (16%), and China (14%). In terms of production, South Africa, Gabon, and Australia are the main producers, accounting for 68% of the global total in 2025. China's manganese ore has small - scale deposits, low overall quality, and an average manganese grade of only 14%, much lower than that of major exporting countries [16][27][75]. - Since 2016, the global manganese metal equivalent production has been rising steadily, stabilizing at around 20 million tons per year since 2019. In 2025, South Africa produced 7.6 million tons, Gabon 5 million tons, and Australia 1.6 million tons. China's manganese metal equivalent production has been declining since reaching a peak of 3 million tons in 2014, mainly due to low ore prices, low domestic ore grades, and strict environmental policies [21][27]. 3.2 High Dependence on Manganese Ore Imports and Tightening Export Controls in Some Countries - China's dependence on manganese ore imports exceeds 90%. In 2025, imports reached 32.84 million tons, a 9.7% increase from 2024. South Africa, Australia, Gabon, and Ghana are the main suppliers, accounting for 91.7% of the total imports [29][33]. - South Africa, Gabon, and Ghana are expected to introduce manganese ore export restrictions. South Africa plans to levy export tariffs, Gabon will ban raw ore exports from 2029, and Ghana plans to stop raw ore exports before 2030. These policies will intensify the supply - tightening expectation [50]. - Some manganese mines are facing resource depletion, such as the OMM manganese mine and the Groote Eylandt mine of South32 [51]. 3.3 Differentiated Production of Major Manganese Mines with a Slight Overall Increase - From the fourth quarter of 2025 to early 2026, South32's Australian mine resumed production smoothly, with a production of 1.363 million tons in the fourth quarter of 2025, a 21.26% year - on - year increase. The 2026 production target is 3.2 million tons. The South African mine's production in the first half of the 2026 fiscal year was 1.06 million tons, with an annual production guidance of 2 million tons [54]. - Jupiter - Tshipi produced about 830,000 tons of manganese ore in the first quarter of the 2026 fiscal year, with a total output of 1.7 million tons in the first half of the year. The FOB production cost has dropped to $2.25 - 2.27 per dry ton degree [56]. - Comilog produced 1.68 million tons of manganese ore in the fourth quarter of 2025, with an annual cumulative output of 7.103 million tons (a 4.4% year - on - year increase). However, transportation problems in Gabon restrict the shipping volume, and the 2026 transportation target is 6.4 - 6.8 million tons [60]. 3.4 Increased Manganese Ore Inventory at Ports and Persistent Supply - Demand Contradiction of Alloy Enterprises - In 2025, China's manganese ore imports increased significantly, leading to an increase in port inventory. As of late March, the total manganese ore inventory at ports was 4.745 million tons, 1 million tons higher than the same period in 2025, but still at a relatively low level in the same period of the past five years [62][65]. - The manganese ore inventory days of alloy plants have decreased, but the inventory is still relatively healthy. After the price increase in early March, the processing profit of alloy plants has improved, and the production willingness is increasing [66]. - The silicon - manganese industry has over - capacity and weak downstream demand. The supply - demand imbalance has led to high social inventory, price pressure, and squeezed industry profits. The silicon - manganese operating rate has been low, and the weekly output is at a five - year low [72]. 3.5 Conclusion - The conclusion reiterates the above - mentioned points, including high resource concentration, high import dependence, differentiated mine production, increased port inventory, and persistent supply - demand contradictions in the alloy industry [75][76][77][78]. - The strategy suggests continuously monitoring manganese ore shipments and inventory changes and being cautious about price fluctuations of manganese ore and silicon - manganese [7][79].
天津港锰矿库存周报(天津振鸿口径)-20260327
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 13:15
Group 1: Report Information - The report is about the weekly inventory of manganese ore at Tianjin Port (Tianjin Zhenhong's scope) [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - Total inventory as of March 27, 2026, is 722,160 tons, with last week's inventory at 284,349 tons,出库 at 3,310,149 tons,入库 at 437,810 tons, and a change of 3,594,498 tons [2] - Inventory by origin: Gabon has 171,300 tons, Australia 420,912 tons, South Africa 374,642 tons, Ghana 163,038 tons, and other origins 215,572 tons [2] - Inventory changes by origin: Gabon has a 10.89% change, Australia 10.42%, South Africa -46,270 tons, Ghana 64.88%, and other origins 7.98% [2] Group 3: Graphs - There are graphs showing the inventory,出库, and入库 of Tianjin Zhenhong's manganese ore, including oxidation ore (Gabon + Australian ore), South African semi - carbonate powder lumps, and Ghanaian ore over different years [6]
天津港锰矿库存周报(天津振鸿口径)-20260327
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 11:46
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly inventory report of manganese ore at Tianjin Port (Tianjin Zhenhong's caliber) [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - Total inventory this week is 722,160 tons, last week was 284,349 tons,出库 was 3,310,149 tons,入库 was 437,810 tons, and the change was 0 tons [2] - For Gabon, inventory this week is 171,300 tons, last week was 220,307 tons,出库 was 215,500 tons,入库 was 44,200 tons, and the change rate is 10.89% [2] - For Australia, inventory is 420,912 tons, and the change rate is 10.42% [2] - For South Africa, inventory is 374,642 tons, the change is -46,270 tons [2] - For Ghana, inventory this week is 163,038 tons, last week was 194,088 tons,出库 was 2,331,962 tons,入库 was 2,275,829 tons, the change is 56,133 tons, and the change rate is 64.88% [2] - For others, inventory this week is 215,572 tons, last week was 312,572 tons,出库 was 286,686 tons,入库 was 168,500 tons, the change is 118,186 tons, and the change rate is 7.98% [2] Group 3: Graphical Data - There are graphical data showing the inventory,出库, and入库 of Tianjin Zhenhong's manganese ore, including total, oxidized ore (Gabon + Australian ore), South African semi - carbonated powder lumps, and Ghanaian ore from 2023 - 2026 [3][4][5][6]
硅铁:多空市场博弈,宽幅震荡,锰硅:多空市场博弈,宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 02:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The manganese silicon market is in a long - short market game with wide - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing price of SiFe2605 is 5982, down 106 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 181,701 and an open interest of 171,684; SiFe2607 has a closing price of 6124, down 84, trading volume of 105,111 and open interest of 132,640. For manganese silicon, MnSi2605 has a closing price of 6434, down 58, trading volume of 374,063 and open interest of 380,552; MnSi2607 has a closing price of 6472, down 56, trading volume of 75,022 and open interest of 124,885 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5650 yuan/ton, up 20; the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6230 yuan/ton, up 80; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 48 yuan/ton degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 765 yuan/ton, up 70 [1] - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures spread of silicon iron (spot - 05 futures) is - 332 yuan/ton, up 126; for manganese silicon, it is - 204 yuan/ton, up 138. The near - far month spread of silicon iron (SiFe2605 - 2607) is - 142 yuan/ton, down 22; for manganese silicon (MnSi2605 - 2607) it is - 38 yuan/ton, down 2. The cross - variety spread of MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 is 452 yuan/ton, up 48; MnSi2607 - SiFe2607 is 348 yuan/ton, up 28 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On March 26, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5600 - 5700, in Ningxia 5650 - 5750, in Qinghai 5600 - 5700, in Gansu 5600 - 5700, in Inner Mongolia 5650 - 5750 (+25); 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 6100, in Ningxia 6000 - 6050, in Qinghai 5900 - 6000, in Gansu 5950 - 6000, in Inner Mongolia 6000 - 6050. The FOB price of 72 silicon iron is 1150 - 1170(+10), 75 is 1170 - 1190(+10) (USD/ton, tax - included). The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the north is 6150 - 6200 yuan/ton, in the south is 6200 - 6400 yuan/ton [1] - **Quotation Information**: United Mining (CML) announced the May 2026 quotation to China, with Mn>46% Fe<4% SiO2<18% Australian block at 6 USD/ton degree, up 0.4 USD/ton degree from last month [3] - **Production Information**: Ningxia Shengyuan Metal Materials Co., Ltd. powered on one 33000kva silicon iron furnace and produced iron. Gansu Xinyutong restarted two 33000kva silicon iron furnaces and produced iron [3] - **Procurement Information**: A large steel group in Hebei released a new round of silicon manganese procurement tender in March, with a procurement volume of 5100 tons. Rizhao Company of a steel mill in Shandong finalized the silicon iron procurement price at 6080 yuan/ton in cash, up 380 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a volume of 300 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0 [3]
硅铁:板块情绪扰动,宽幅震荡;锰硅:锰矿市场坚挺,日内波动加剧
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 02:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The manganese ore market is firm, and intraday fluctuations have intensified. There are various developments in the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese markets, including price changes, production adjustments, and procurement information [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of SiFe2605 and SiFe2607 are 6088 and 6208 respectively, with changes of -12 and -6 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 203,058 and 106,404, and the open interests are 174,788 and 125,229 [1]. - For ferromanganese, the closing prices of MnSi2605 and MnSi2607 are 6492 and 6528 respectively, with changes of 12 and 10 compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 439,738 and 90,595, and the open interests are 392,420 and 120,608 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5630 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 6150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 48 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 695 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spot - 05 futures price spread for ferrosilicon is -458 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous day. For ferromanganese, it is -378 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The near - far month price spread for ferrosilicon (SiFe2605 - 2607) is -120 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day. For ferromanganese (MnSi2605 - 2607), it is -36 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - The cross - variety price spread for MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 is 404 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from the previous day. For MnSi2607 - SiFe2607, it is 320 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Changes**: On March 25, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi, Ningxia, etc. increased. The price of 75 ferrosilicon in some regions also increased. The price of 6517 ferromanganese in the north and south both increased [1]. - **Production Adjustment**: Industry news indicates that manganese alloy plants will enter the production - cut and price - maintenance stage. The production cut will start on April 1, but currently, the plants have not effectively reduced production, and the March output is still at a relatively high level [3]. - **Production Resumption**: Ningxia Shengyuan Metal Materials Co., Ltd. has powered on one 33000kva ferrosilicon furnace and produced iron. Gansu Xinyutong has resumed production of two 33000kva ferrosilicon furnaces and produced iron [3]. - **Procurement Information**: A Fujian group's ferromanganese procurement prices and quantities in different regions are provided. Jinshenglan's ferrosilicon pricing in different regions on March 24 is also given [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and the trend intensity of ferromanganese is 0 [3].