硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年10月12日 ◼ 本周锰矿价格坚挺，锰硅波动幅度有限，硅铁价格受基本面压力影响走势震荡偏弱，合金市场当前仍以观望为主。 | 基本面 | 条 | 锰硅（内蒙古） | 硅铁(宁夏） | 目 | 当期值 | 当期值 | 比 | 同 | 比 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 环 | 环 | 周产量（周） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 11 | 58 | 0 | 00% | 3 | 49% | 20 | 42 | -1 | 07% | 15 | 82% | 供 ...

05 库存 03 利润及成本 06 图形走势 产业链示意图 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 短期现实压力仍压制盘面，对于重 要会议预期交易仍旧可期 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 锰硅月报 2025/10/10 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 ◆ 天津6517锰硅现货市场报价5670元/吨，环比-30元/吨，较上月初+70元/吨；期货主力（SM601）收盘报5768元/吨，环比+10元/吨，较上月 初+32元/吨；基差92元/吨，环比上周-40元/吨，基差率1.58%，处于历史统计值的相对中性水平。 ◆ 利润：锰硅测算即期利润（不含折旧等费用）维持低位，内蒙-321元/吨，环比持平，较上月初+47元/吨；宁夏-438元/吨，环比持平，较上 月初+69元/吨；广西-621元/吨，环比持平，较上月初+40元/吨。（利润为测算值，仅供参考） ◆ 成本：测算内蒙锰硅即期成本（不含折旧等费用)在6001元/吨，环比持平，较上月初-47元/吨；宁夏在60 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5436 | -36 | -350 | 102959 | -28210 | 124065 | -5872 | | SM主力合约 | 5760 | -8 | -178 | 125982 | -27369 | 376591 | 12742 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5300 | 0 | -180 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 0 | -20 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5280 | 0 | -150 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5620 | 0 | -40 | | 72%FeSi ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 10 月 9 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5472 | -22 | -270 | 131169 | -61050 | 118081 | 5984 | | SM主力合约 | 5768 | 10 | -148 | 153351 | -23013 | 363849 | 15558 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5300 | -50 | -180 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 期货合约 收盘价 较前一交易日 成交量 持仓量 | 期 货 | 硅铁2601 | 5628 | -108 | 92,203 | 99,910 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 锰硅2511 | 5828 | -96 | 155,732 | 63,093 | | | 锰硅2601 | 5848 | -90 | 244,524 | 335,692 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | 现 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5380 | - | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 | | 5700 | - | 元/吨 | | | 锰矿:Mn44块 | | 40.0 | - | 元/吨度 | | | 兰炭:小料:神木 | | 710 | - | 元/吨 | | | 硅铁 期现价差 | （现货-11期货） 硅铁2511-2601 | -280 3 2 | +126 -18 | 元/吨 ...

南华期货铁合金周报 ——成本支撑 陈敏涛（Z0022731） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/9/28 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 期，市场的多空逻辑还是在于强预期与弱现实的博弈，但缺乏实质性的行动，冲高回落的风险较大。 焦煤&硅铁价格走势 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 焦煤 硅铁(右轴) 元/吨 24/09 24/12 25/03 25/06 500 1000 1500 2000 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 焦煤&锰硅价格走势 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 焦煤 锰硅(右轴) 元/吨 24/09 24/12 25/03 25/06 500 1000 1500 2000 5000 6000 7000 8000 * 螺纹&硅铁价格走势 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 硅铁(右轴) 螺纹 元/吨 24/09 24/12 25/03 25/06 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 螺纹&硅锰价格走势 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 螺纹 锰硅(右轴) 元/吨 ...

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：合金成本存在支撑，价格走势震荡 | | | 产节奏对合金的需求支撑力度，警惕需求不及市场预期而使得供需矛盾加剧，合金价格出现下移。 | 幅收缩，部分产区存有转产迹象，但成本端表现坚挺，新增投产计划使得空头情绪浓厚，短期维持成本以上空间运行。需持续跟踪钢厂的生 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本面 | 条 目 | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | | | 当期值 | 环 比 | 同 比 | 当期值 | 环 比 | 同 比 | | | 周产量（周） | 11.45 | 1.24% | 4.85% | 20.64 | -1.12% | 17.44% | | 供 应 | 进口数量 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The manganese market is experiencing fluctuations in supply and demand, with a notable decrease in manganese ore shipments from Gabon and an increase in silicon-manganese inventory among independent producers, indicating potential challenges in the market dynamics [1][3]. Supply and Inventory - Gabon's manganese ore shipments fell to 47,700 tons, while Australian ore supply has increased, leading to a slight decrease in port manganese inventory to 4.27 million tons, down by 250,000 tons [1]. - The inventory of 63 independent silicon-manganese producers reached 233,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34,900 tons, marking a 17-month high. The Ningxia region saw the most significant increase, with inventory rising by 30,600 tons to 169,000 tons [1]. Profitability - Current spot profits for silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia are at -80 yuan/ton, while in Ningxia, they are at -190 yuan/ton. Hebei Steel Group set the final pricing for silicon-manganese at 6,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous month [1]. Demand and Market Dynamics - New Lake Futures noted a decrease in silicon-manganese operating rates and weekly production, but iron output is gradually increasing, aligning with seasonal demand expectations. However, the actual demand for silicon-manganese remains uncertain, with ongoing inventory accumulation and weak spot market transactions [3]. - Guotou Anxin Futures reported that iron output has risen above 241, and silicon-manganese production continues to increase without significant inventory accumulation. Manganese ore prices have seen a slight uptick, and the market is advised to consider buying on dips due to a potential upward price correction [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 25, the manganese silicon futures main contract closed higher. The fundamentals show characteristics of "high supply and weak demand." Steel mills' pre - holiday stockpiling supports short - term demand, but terminal building material demand is weak, inventory pressure remains, and with the resumption of production in Guizhou, the risk of medium - to - long - term supply surplus intensifies. Technically, the price is oscillating in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton, with balanced long - and short - term forces. In the short term, it lacks an independent driver and is likely to follow the fluctuations of the black sector. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings in October and the demand callback risk after steel mills finish restocking [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The daily session opened at 5,916 yuan/ton, with a high of 5,954 yuan/ton, a low of 5,856 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5,938 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 219,803 lots, and the open interest was 332,429 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 futures contracts showed a normal market pattern of lower near - term and higher far - term prices. The open interest of the variety was 510,416 lots, a decrease of 18,713 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 1,344 lots [2]. - **Related Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main contract was 27,339 contracts, and that of put options was 23,120 contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.846 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: On September 25, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 88 yuan/ton, which widened compared with the previous day, mainly because the increase in the spot price on that day was less than that of the futures price [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 25, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 59,475, a decrease of 539 from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: On September 25, the manganese ore market oscillated. In Tianjin Port, semi - carbonate was traded at 34 - 34.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron ore was about 30 yuan/ton degree, and Gabonese ore was about 40 yuan/ton degree. Low - price supplies were hard to find. The price of Australian lump ore was in the range of 39.5 - 41.5 yuan/ton degree, with firm quotes and pending transactions. In Qinzhou Port, the spot price of manganese ore was consolidating. The available inventory of semi - carbonate was low, with a price around 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian seeds at 35.5 - 36 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump ore at 39 - 41 yuan/ton degree, and South African high - iron ore at 30.5 yuan/ton degree [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: On September 25, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, indicating short - term support below but also obvious upward resistance. The price has been running in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton in the past half - month, currently at the central position, and a strong driver is needed for a breakthrough [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy futures prices rebounded slightly on September 23. There is still high supply pressure on both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and short - side operations are recommended after rebounds [6]. - For trading strategies, it is suggested to take short - side operations on rallies due to high supply pressure, hold off on arbitrage, and sell straddle option combinations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5698, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 2. The trading volume was 244,716, down 37,133, and the open interest was 200,009, down 12,607. The SM main contract closed at 5882, up 12 daily and down 62 weekly. The trading volume was 246,470, unchanged, and the open interest was 335,174, unchanged [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Ferrosilicon spot prices showed mixed trends, with some regions down 20 - 50 yuan/ton and Jiangsu up 100 yuan/ton. Silicomanganese spot prices were generally stable [4][6]. - **Basis/Spreads**: Ferrosilicon basis and spreads changed, with the SF - SM spread at - 184, up 38 daily and 60 weekly. Silicomanganese basis and spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Raw Materials**: Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin Port were slightly weaker, and the prices of semi - carbonate and Australian lumps decreased by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton degree. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in some regions increased [4]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategies** - **Ferrosilicon**: After a sharp decline, it rebounded, but there is still high supply pressure. Short - side operations are recommended when approaching the resistance range of 5700 - 5800 [6]. - **Silicomanganese**: Although the cost side provides support, there is high supply pressure. Short - side operations are recommended when approaching the resistance range of 5900 - 6000 after the rebound [6]. - **Overall**: High supply pressure persists, short - side operations on rallies are recommended; hold off on arbitrage; sell straddle option combinations [7]. - **Important Information** - On the 23rd, the quotes of some manganese ores in Tianjin Port were provided [8]. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93% [8]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, basis, cost - profit, and monthly spreads, showing the historical data and changes of relevant indicators [9][11][13][15][16][21].