交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报6.3-6.6 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 原料端，锰矿价格持续下行，硅锰成本支撑走弱。供应端，硅锰厂排产波动不大，南方地区部分硅锰厂有复产意愿。 硅锰厂主动报价意愿偏弱，部分持货方报价小幅下跌。需求端，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，多等待主流钢招进场。 下周行情预测： 锰矿价格持续下行，硅锰成本支撑走弱，下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎，预计下周锰硅价格震荡为主。 2 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-12-01 2023-07- ...

Market Overview - The spot prices for manganese silicon in major production areas have decreased, with Inner Mongolia at 5550 CNY/ton (-100), Guangxi at 5550 CNY/ton (-100), Ningxia at 5450 CNY/ton (-100), and Guizhou at 5500 CNY/ton (-100) [1] - On May 7, the manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5598 CNY/ton, up 0.68% (+38) from the previous day, with a decrease in main contract positions by 10,238 lots [1] Cost Analysis - The production cost in Inner Mongolia is 5750 CNY/ton (-11.1), while Guangxi's production cost is 6368 CNY/ton, with Inner Mongolia reporting a production profit of -200 CNY/ton (-89) [2] Manganese Ore Supply - NMT announced the shipping price for manganese ore to China for May 2025, with Mn35.5% South African semi-carbonate at 3.75 USD/ton, and Mn36.5% at 4.3 USD/ton [3] - The total global shipment of South African manganese ore is 458,600 tons, down 31.47% week-on-week, while Australian shipments increased by 13,689.65% to 105,200 tons [3] - The inventory of manganese ore at major Chinese ports is 4.055 million tons, up 328,000 tons week-on-week, with Tianjin port holding 3.199 million tons [4] Demand Insights - The weekly demand for manganese silicon from five major steel types is 128,211 tons, up 1.15% week-on-week, with daily pig iron production at 2.4542 million tons [5] - The steel mills' profit rate is reported at 56.28%, down 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [5] Industry Outlook - The manganese silicon main contract is experiencing fluctuations, with steel mills increasing procurement frequency but maintaining a strong price negotiation stance [6] - The production of manganese silicon is expected to continue to decrease, with some manufacturers in Ningxia facing deeper losses and reduced production enthusiasm [6] - The overall supply-demand balance for manganese silicon remains limited, with potential price weakness anticipated in the near term due to insufficient cost support [6]