Workflow
镍价去估值去产量
icon
Search documents
镍:矿端担忧有所降温,冶炼供应弹性饱满,不锈钢:负反馈传导减产增加,供需双弱低位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 09:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Nickel**: The concern about the nickel ore end has cooled down, while the supply elasticity of the smelting end is sufficient. The potential removal of the raw ore export ban clause in the final version of the mining fiscal system bill may ease the speculation on the ore end. The supply of the smelting end is abundant, and the stainless - steel demand is weak, which may limit the upside of nickel prices [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the destocking in reality is less than expected. The steel price will fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The overseas tariff pressure and the off - season demand limit the upside of steel prices. The negative feedback has led to supply cuts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals 3.1.1 Nickel - The short - term strength of the nickel ore end remains, but the long - term concern has decreased. The potential removal of the export ban in the Philippines and the news of increased quotas in Indonesia have affected the market expectations. The smelting end has sufficient supply elasticity, and the weak stainless - steel demand may lead to a surplus in the nickel - iron market and limit the upside of refined nickel prices [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - The supply and demand are both weak. The negative feedback has led to production cuts. The domestic and Indonesian stainless - steel production in June has decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The overseas tariff pressure and the off - season demand limit the upside of steel prices. The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2]. 3.2 Inventory Changes - **Refined Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased by 92 tons to 37,908 tons. The LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,568 tons to 197,538 tons [3]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The nickel - iron inventory at the end of May was 31,462 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 59% and 6% respectively, with increasing inventory pressure [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel social inventory was 1,145,508 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%. The cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless - steel inventories also increased [4]. - **Nickel Ore**: The Chinese nickel ore inventory increased by 250,100 wet tons to 7.2187 million wet tons [5]. 3.3 Market News - In March, the Ontario provincial governor in Canada threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US due to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue to shut down for maintenance from June to July, affecting about 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [6]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [7]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,920, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,550 [9]. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 86,947, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 130,382 [9]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, nickel - iron, stainless - steel products, and relevant spreads and premiums are provided in the table [9].