Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [4] Core Insights - The RKEF project produced 30,463 tons of nickel pig iron (NPI) in Q2 2025, a decrease of 5% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to adjustments made to the ONI furnace [1][2] - The unit cash cost for NPI increased by 4% year-on-year to $10,348 per ton, driven by maintenance costs and rising electricity expenses [2] - The sales revenue for NPI in Q2 2025 was $346 million, reflecting a 6% decrease year-on-year [2] RKEF Project Summary - NPI production in Q2 2025 was 30,463 tons, with a contract price of $11,449 per ton, showing a 1% increase from the previous quarter [1][2] - The adjusted EBITDA for NPI was $33.7 million, down 24% from the previous quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA per ton of $1,107, a decrease of 20% [2][12] HPAL Project Summary - The Huayue nickel-cobalt project produced 20,750 tons of nickel and 1,877 tons of cobalt in Q2 2025, exceeding the rated capacity by 38% [3] - The unit EBITDA for HNC was $4,819 per ton, up 12% quarter-on-quarter, supported by rising MHP prices [5] Mining Operations Summary - The Hengjaya mine produced 5.92 million wet tons of nickel ore in Q2 2025, a 99% increase year-on-year [7] - The adjusted EBITDA for the Hengjaya mine was $41.4 million, a 33% increase from the previous quarter, driven by rising nickel ore prices [7] Financial Overview - Nickel Industries received $34.4 million in shareholder loan repayments in Q2 2025 [10] - The company also received $8.1 million in dividends from the Oracle Nickel project and $8 million from the Hengjaya mine [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro层面，关税扰动贯穿7月，月初市场悲观，随着贸易协定落地、关税调降，市场情绪回暖；美国二季度经济数据有韧性，劳动市场稳健，美联储偏鹰，市场对美联储降息节点预期反复 [4] - 成本方面，印尼、菲律宾气候扰动减弱，镍矿供给趋向宽松，印尼镍商会下调镍矿内贸基准价，但矿价走弱迹象不明显 [4] - 基本面，7月国内不锈钢产量预期大幅收缩，印尼小幅环增但难补国内减量；三元材料产量小幅环增，消费整体走弱；纯镍出口窗口敞开，供给小幅探涨，基本面供增需减边际走弱 [4] - 后期宏观预期主导，基本面边际变量对价格影响有限；上旬宏观压力预期强，下旬有不确定性；基本面暂无改善预期，镍价或延续震荡运行 [4][47] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - 7月沪镍主力合约震荡运行，月初因美国信函关税压力镍价下行，后随贸易协议签署、关税调降而反弹；基本面无明显驱动，供给边际修正，需求边际走弱，现货库存有累库迹象 [9] - 7月精炼镍升贴水高位回落，金川镍升贴水从月初2600元/吨降至7月30日2300元/吨，进口镍升贴水同期从650元/吨降至550元/吨，升贴水回落后维持低位震荡 [11] 3.2 Macro Analysis Overseas: Tariff Turmoil and Fluctuating Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts - 7月上旬特朗普向23个国家发关税信函，关税强度20 - 50，中下旬关税风波缓解，美国与多国签署贸易协议，协议关税低于信函税率；部分国家仍面临高对等关税，新协议落地待观察 [13] - 美国经济数据喜忧参半，6月核心PCE物价指数等显示通胀和消费有韧性，但7月非农就业等数据走弱，劳动力市场有结构性失衡；制造业PMI未延续修正趋势，市场对美联储降息节点预期反复 [14] - 美国居民需求有韧性是经济增长基石，但需警惕关税引发滞涨压力 [15] Domestic: Clear Path to Anti-Involution and Stable Economic Structure - 反内卷政策预期延续，政策框架日益完善，但7月底政治局会议纪要措辞调整引发市场情绪反复，治理内卷路径明确但具体量化目标待明确 [16] - 投资端6月固定资产投资同比增长2.8%，房地产投资占比回落；消费端社零累计同比+5.0%，剔除汽车后增速回落，居民自主消费驱动力不足；出口6月总额同比增长5.64%，关税对出口影响不明确，需警惕转口贸易压力 [17] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 1. Alleviation of Shortage and Possible Decline in Ore Prices - 印尼、菲律宾气候扰动减弱，镍矿开采效率提升，紧缺格局缓解，印尼镍商会下调镍矿内贸基准价，菲律宾8月镍矿预售成交环比回落，镍矿供给有宽松预期，价格或走弱 [22] - 6月中国镍矿进口量同比回落7.21%，进口自菲律宾占比93.23%；7月25日国内港口库存较6月末大幅累库139万吨 [23] 2. Export Window Remains Open and Supply is Ample - 7月全国精炼镍产量3.28万吨，同比+13.69%，开工率61.08%；冶炼端亏损幅度收窄但仍为负，上游现金流压力或凸显，需警惕下半年供给扰动 [26] - 6月中国进口精炼镍17010吨，同比增长119.71%，进口增量来自挪威，部分国家进口量下滑；出口10143吨，同比-5.66%，7月出口利润回落 [27] 3. Easing Pressure on Ferronickel but Need Time for Correction - 7月高镍生铁价格先跌后涨，10 - 12%高镍生铁到港含税报价月初910.5元/镍点，月中900元/镍点，月底912元/镍点 [30] - 7月中国镍生铁产量环比-0.04%，印尼同环比+28.14%/-1.73%；仅山东火法BF工艺有利润，国内RKEF及EF工艺亏损；国内不锈钢产量7月预期走弱，印尼或增加；国内300系不锈钢库存高位去库不顺畅 [31] - 6月国内镍铁进口同比+50.05%，主要来自印尼；不锈钢进口同比-16.17%，出口同比-15.33%，进出口规模为年内最低 [32] 4. Recovery of the Nickel Sulfate Market and Marginal Improvement in Supply and Demand - 7月硫酸镍价格走势分化，电池级硫酸镍价格从月初28500元/吨降至月末27900元/吨，电镀级硫酸镍价格从28050元/吨涨至28550元/吨 [38] - 5月硫酸镍产量同环比+4.77%/+17.3%，7月三元材料产量同环比+16.7%/+5.8%；高冰镍产硫酸镍工艺利润率3.6%盈利，其他原料工艺亏损；6月硫酸镍进口量约1.32吨，出口782吨 [39] 5. Conservative Policy Expectations and Slowing Consumption Growth - 1 - 6月新能源汽车累计销量同比+40.31%，产量同比+41.37%，产销比近乎持平；7月1 - 20日新能源乘用车零售同比增长23%，较上月同期下降12%，消费增速自6月退坡 [41] - 后期新能源汽车消费面临居民自主消费依赖补贴、补贴资金投放有序及高基数压力，消费或维持增长但数据表现放缓 [42] 6. Bearish Fundamentals and Possible Accumulation of Pure Nickel Inventory - 截至7月25日国内精炼镍社会库存较6月末累库2438吨，7月31日SHFE和LME库存较上月增加，全球两大交易所库存同期增加约5170吨 [44] - 后期纯镍去库曲折，硫酸镍市场热度难延续，冶炼端供给或维持高位，预计纯镍库存将再度累库 [44] 3.4 Market Outlook - 供给方面，出口窗口在，供给或高位稳中偏弱 [47] - 需求方面，钢企不锈钢排产低，新能源消费降速，需求端无亮点，稳中偏弱 [47] - 成本方面，镍矿供给宽松，成本重心下移，中性 [47] - 宏观方面，关税风险反复，上旬压力强，下旬有不确定性，中性 [47] - 后期宏观预期主导，基本面改善预期不明显，镍价或延续震荡运行 [47]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) anticipates a revenue of approximately RMB 1.118 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of about 4.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be around RMB 71.8 million, a significant decline of approximately 50.8% compared to the same period last year [1]. Group 1 - The expected consolidated revenue for the upcoming period is approximately RMB 1.118 billion, compared to RMB 1.065 billion in the same period last year, indicating a growth of about 4.9% [1]. - The anticipated net profit attributable to shareholders is around RMB 71.8 million, down from RMB 146 million in the previous year, reflecting a substantial decrease of approximately 50.8% [1]. - The board attributes the significant decline in net profit primarily to the average selling price of electrolytic nickel, which is expected to be approximately RMB 110,688 per ton, down about 10.9% from RMB 124,230 per ton in the same period last year [1]. Group 2 - The increase in production costs is noted, mainly due to the use of externally sourced nickel concentrate during production, which has contributed to the rise in electrolytic nickel production costs [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for nickel is neutral to bearish, while for tin, no specific investment rating is provided in the report [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the supply of nickel ore gradually increases and the smelting capacity is abundant, the inventory of refined nickel at home and abroad has been accumulating, and the actual demand is not optimistic. Although the trading expectation of the anti - involution policy has not cooled down, the nickel price trend is increasingly deviating from the fundamentals, and there is still upward pressure [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Market Performance**: - As of July 21, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content were flat at $30, $58.5, and $80.5 per wet ton respectively compared to last week. The domestic trade nickel ore prices in Indonesia with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% were flat at $25 and $52.2 per wet ton respectively as of July 18 [3]. - The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang were flat at $12.5 and $11.5 per wet ton respectively last week [3]. - The electrolytic nickel export profit and loss decreased by $6.65 per ton to $45.4 per ton last week, a decrease of 12.8% [3]. - As of July 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by $2 per nickel point to $901.5 per nickel point, a decrease of 0.22% [3]. - As of July 18, the LME nickel price increased by $10 per ton to $15,245 per ton, an increase of 0.07%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by $7.81 per ton to - $194.43 per ton [21]. - As of July 18, the electrolytic nickel spot price decreased by $650 per ton to $121,500 per ton, a decrease of 0.53% [15]. - As of July 18, the Jinchuan nickel price decreased by $700 per ton to $122,450 per ton, a decrease of 0.57%, and the Jinchuan nickel premium was flat at $2,000 per ton [16]. - Last week, the imported nickel price decreased by $700 per ton to $120,800 per ton, a decrease of 0.58%, and the imported nickel premium was flat at $350 per ton [16]. - **Production and Inventory**: - As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.22 million tons, an increase of 1.26% [3][43]. - As of July 21, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 815 tons to 22,100 tons, an increase of 3.83%. The LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 0.13 million tons to 207,900 tons, an increase of 0.63% [47]. - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1,165 tons to 40,400 tons, an increase of 2.89% [3][47]. - As of July 18, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 7.15 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.69% [32]. - According to customs data, in June 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million tons, an increase of 10.68% month - on - month and a decrease of 9.21% year - on - year. As of June 2025, the cumulative national nickel ore import volume was 14.7812 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 8.36% year - on - year [32]. - **Related Products**: - As of July 21, the MHP FOB price decreased by $132 per ton to $12,347 per ton, a decrease of 1.06%; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by $90 per ton to $12,928 per ton, a decrease of 0.69% [38]. - As of July 2025, the Indonesian MHP production increased by 0.07 million tons to 3.87 million tons, an increase of 1.84%; the high - grade nickel matte production increased by 0.08 million tons to 1.35 million tons, an increase of 6.30% [38]. - As of June 2025, the MHP monthly import volume was 1.282 million tons, a decrease of 10.21% month - on - month; the high - grade nickel matte monthly import volume was 225,000 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [38]. Tin - The tin monthly balance sheet shows the production, import, export, consumption, and surplus of tin from January to December 2025. The supply and consumption have different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes each month [4]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - As of June 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 0.12 million tons to 2.48 million nickel tons, a decrease of 4.69%. Most manufacturers produce according to sales, and the overall production of sulfuric acid nickel is weak this year, with no expectation of resuming production for previously reduced or shut - down manufacturers [58]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel import volume was 1.33 million tons, a decrease of 27.35% month - on - month and a decrease of 10.01% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 782.1 tons, an increase of 3.66% month - on - month and a decrease of 41.02% year - on - year [58]. - As of July 22, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased to - 2.6%, - 4%, 1.1%, and - 4.1% respectively compared to last week. Most manufacturers using externally purchased raw materials are in losses [65]. Ferronickel - As of June 2025, the national ferronickel production (metal content) decreased by 0.16 thousand tons to 25.64 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.59%. The Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 0.46 million tons to 13.68 million tons, a decrease of 3.26%. Some Indonesian iron plants have reduced production, and a small number of manufacturers have switched to producing nickel matte [3][74]. - As of July 15, the ferronickel inventory in major domestic regions decreased by 0.43 million tons to 33,200 nickel tons (average grade 11.79%), a decrease of 11.46% [80]. Stainless Steel - As of June 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 17.13 million tons to 329.16 million tons, a decrease of 4.95%. The 300 - series production decreased by 4.07 million tons to 174.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.28% [91]. - As of July 18, the stainless - steel market inventory decreased by 1.97 million tons to 114.78 million tons, a decrease of 1.69%. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 0.74 million tons to 68.75 million tons, a decrease of 1.06% [87]. - As of July 22, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.75 million tons to 10.35 million tons, a decrease of 6.77% [87]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly stainless - steel import volume was 10.95 million tons, a decrease of 12.48% month - on - month and a decrease of 16.61% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 39.0 million tons, a decrease of 10.63% month - on - month and a decrease of 13.51% year - on - year [91]. - As of July 22, the production cash cost of Chinese cold - rolled 304 stainless steel decreased by $126 per ton to $13,141 per ton, a decrease of 0.92%. The cold - rolled stainless - steel coil profit margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to - 4.88% [96].

Report Date - The report was published on July 22, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For nickel, macro - sentiment boosts expectations, but reality restricts elasticity; for stainless steel, macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity [1] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,550, with changes of 2,050 compared to T - 1, 1,450 compared to T - 5, etc.; the closing price of stainless steel main contract was 12,905, with changes of 180 compared to T - 1, 190 compared to T - 5, etc. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,799, and that of stainless steel main contract was 255,058 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 122,200, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (factory price) was 902, and the price of red earth nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59. For stainless steel, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) was 12,900, etc. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,230 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - In March, Ontario's governor proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US due to US tariff threats [1] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [2] - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [2][3] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue shutdown for maintenance from June to July, affecting 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output [3] - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [3] - Environmental violations were found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the government may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [3] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [3] - The government - approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4] - Two Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks have suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, affecting about 1,900 tons of nickel - iron production per month [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, with a range of [-2, 2] indicating different levels of bullish or bearish views [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices may face downward pressure at low levels, with a slight expected decline in costs and limited upside potential. The support at the mine end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices [1]. - Stainless steel is operating with weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term off - season demand is flat, and the negative feedback is transmitted to the supply side. Although the inventory has been slightly digested and the profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired, the driving force for continuous upward repair of steel prices is weak [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamental Analysis - The support at the nickel mine end is marginally loosening. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore has marginally declined by 2 - 25 US dollars/wet ton, and the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical process is expected to slightly decrease by about 1.3%. Market concerns about the mine end have eased due to the news of increased Indonesian quotas, and the speculative sentiment has cooled [1]. - The smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices. The negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry from June to July has affected the supply side. In July, the production schedule is 312,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively. Nickel - iron inventory has accumulated to a historical high, and the price of nickel - iron is under pressure, which restricts the upside elasticity of refined nickel valuation. Also, the inventory accumulation in the refined nickel segment is less than expected, and the operating capacity pressure is increasing marginally, limiting the upside space [1]. Stainless - Steel Fundamental Analysis - Stainless - steel supply and demand are both weak. The short - term off - season demand is flat, and the increase in US tariffs on household appliances containing steel parts has led to negative feedback on the supply side. In July, the marginal supply - demand may continue to be weak. The overall high factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the social inventory has been slightly reduced. With the raw material end offering concessions, the profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired [2]. - The production schedule of stainless steel in July is 31,200 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has declined to 3%. In May, China's stainless - steel imports were 125,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. Indonesia's production schedule in July has recovered to 43,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 33% and 32% respectively, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2% [2]. - The surplus pressure has shifted from stainless steel to nickel - iron. The nickel - iron inventory has increased to a historical high. At the end of June, the nickel - iron inventory was 37,534 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 66% and 8% respectively. The price of nickel - iron raw materials has decreased to 910 yuan/nickel, and the cash cost center of stainless - steel gross basis has moved down to about 12,500 yuan/ton, and the delivery profit has been marginally repaired [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory has increased by 1,429 tons to 38,020 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased by 198 tons to 21,059 tons, the spot inventory has increased by 1,607 tons to 11,571 tons, and the bonded area inventory has increased by 20 tons to 5,390 tons. The LME nickel inventory has decreased by 1,824 tons to 202,470 tons [3]. - The nickel - iron inventory at the end of June was 37,534 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 66% and 8% respectively, and the inventory pressure has increased marginally [4]. - On July 3, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1568 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 625,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 531,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18% [4]. - The nickel - ore inventory at Chinese ports has increased by 1.1261 million wet tons to 8.7184 million wet tons. Among them, the Philippine nickel ore is 8.6424 million wet tons. Classified by nickel - ore grade, the low - nickel and high - iron ore is 4.4548 million wet tons, and the medium - and high - grade nickel ore is 4.2636 million wet tons [6]. Market News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are also crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [7]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, marking the project's entry into the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing nickel - iron with a grade of 22%, and each production line has an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel [7]. - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal - processing park has resumed production. The plant's almost entire production capacity was shut down in March due to a fatal landslide in the tailings reservoir area. Currently, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill has tentatively decided to continue the shutdown for maintenance from June to July, and may adjust according to the market situation later. This shutdown is expected to affect the production volume by 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the production of 300 - series stainless steel. The mill had already cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) welcomes the decision of the two - house committee to remove the raw - ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), including suspected poor wastewater management, air pollution, and the use of unlicensed tailings areas. The deputy minister in charge of environmental law enforcement said that companies found to have violated the law in IMIP may be fined, and the entire industrial park will be audited [8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 122,270 yuan, with changes compared to different time points (T - 1, T - 5, etc.) as shown in the table. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,730 yuan, also with corresponding changes [11]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 111,042 lots, and that of the main stainless - steel contract is 102,164 lots, with changes compared to different time points [11]. - Other data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium and discount, nickel - bean premium and discount, and various spreads and costs are also provided in the table [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity. The downside space of nickel prices depends on the support at the mine end. The news of increased quotas in Indonesia affects the mine - end expectations, and the third quarter is often the stage of quota release and premium callback. In July, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore may slightly decline. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic becomes less significant, if pricing returns to the smelting - end fundamentals, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. In July, the stainless - steel production in China and Indonesia stabilizes, nickel - iron inventory accumulates to a historical high, and the negative feedback pressures the nickel - iron valuation, which restricts the upside elasticity of refined - nickel valuation. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, while the operating capacity increases marginally, and supply elasticity limits the upside space [1]. - For stainless steel, it operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, boosting the market. However, the tariff increase on household appliances containing steel parts in the US and the weak short - term off - season demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. After the negative feedback leads to a decline in actual supply, the overall high factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces. If the production - cut expectation is continuously verified in the inventory, the suppression of stainless - steel profit by over - supply may ease, but the overall cost center moves down, and the raw - material end of nickel - iron gives up profits, limiting the upside repair elasticity of steel prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel fundamentals**: The support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the smelting - end logic restricts the upside elasticity. The news of increased Indonesian quotas affects mine - end expectations, and the third - quarter is a stage of quota release and premium callback. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic fades, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, and the operating capacity increases marginally [1]. - **Stainless - steel fundamentals**: It operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, but the tariff increase in the US and weak short - term demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. The production in China and Indonesia has different trends, and after the negative feedback on supply, the factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces [2]. Inventory Changes - **Nickel inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increases by 120 tons to 36,591 tons, with a decrease in warehouse - receipt inventory and an increase in spot inventory, and the bonded - area inventory remains unchanged. The LME nickel inventory decreases by 846 tons to 204,294 tons. The nickel - iron inventory in mid - June increases year - on - year and month - on - month, and the port nickel - ore inventory in China increases by 199,900 wet tons to 7.5923 million wet tons [3][5]. - **Stainless - steel inventory**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreases by 0.25% week - on - week. The cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory decreases, while the hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory increases. The inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel also shows a decrease in the total and cold - rolled inventory and an increase in the hot - rolled inventory [3]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produces nickel - iron and enters the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [6]. - A nickel smelter in an important Indonesian metal - processing park resumes production, and the capacity of the Indonesian QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill suspends production for maintenance from June to July, which may affect the production of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly of the 300 - series [6]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the decision to remove the raw - ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal - system bill [7]. - Environmental violations are found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [7]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and other relevant data of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as the prices, premiums, and spreads of related products such as imported nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel products, are presented in the table, showing different trends compared with previous periods [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity. The global visible inventory is accumulating marginally. The high cost of pyrometallurgical integration in Indonesia may limit the downside space of nickel prices, but news about increased quotas in Indonesia and potential changes in the Philippines' export policy have cooled market concerns and speculation about the ore end. The smelting end lacks demand highlights, and supply elasticity restricts the upside space [1]. - For stainless steel, the supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and the steel price is oscillating at a low level. The pressure release after the easing of tariffs is not obvious, and new tariffs from the US and weak off - season demand restrict the upside elasticity of steel prices. Negative feedback has spread to the supply side, and the overall inventory needs to be digested. In the short - term, the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and in the long - term, the pressure on the profit link may ease if production cuts continue and an inventory inflection point is seen, but the steel price center may not rise significantly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamentals Nickel - The logic of the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside of nickel prices. The global refined nickel visible inventory is accumulating, and there are expectations of more potential supply in the medium - term. The negative feedback from stainless steel has led to increased production cuts and pressure on ferronickel, which in turn restricts the upside of refined nickel valuations [1]. Stainless Steel - Production and imports are declining marginally, and the current inventory is still under pressure. The supply - demand relationship has turned weak. The production schedule in June shows a year - on - year and month - on - month decline, and the inventory needs to be digested. The steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, with decreases in warehouse receipt, spot, and bonded area inventories. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons [3]. - The ferronickel inventory in mid - June increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month, with increasing inventory pressure [4]. - The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in cold - rolled, hot - rolled, and 300 - series inventories [4]. - China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 173,700 wet tons to 7.3924 million wet tons, an increase of 2.41% [6]. Market News - In March, the Ontario provincial governor of Canada proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [7]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced ferronickel and entered the trial - production stage [7]. - An overseas nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the decision to remove the raw ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the companies involved and will audit the entire park [8]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides a table of weekly key data for nickel and stainless steel, including futures prices, trading volumes, premiums, spreads, and prices of related products in the industrial chain [11]. Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the prices, trading volumes, inventories, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel futures contracts, as well as the prices and inventories of related raw materials [12][15][17][19][22][24][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of the year, nickel and stainless steel prices may face pressure and fluctuate at low levels, with the center of the fluctuation likely to move down compared to the first half. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 110,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton, and for stainless steel, it is 12,000 - 13,100 yuan/ton [2]. - The core logic for the nickel market in the first half of the year was the tight supply of nickel ore, but market concerns may become dull in the second half. The supply elasticity of refined nickel may limit the upside space, and the downstream demand for nickel is mediocre, so the center of the nickel price fluctuation may move down [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 H1 Review of Nickel and Stainless Steel Trends 1.1 Shanghai Nickel Market Review - From January to February 2025, nickel prices fluctuated in the range of 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton. Despite a slight increase in inventory at the smelting end, it was lower than expected. High ore prices provided cost support for pyrometallurgy, and nickel prices oscillated in a multi - empty game [5]. - From March to April 2025, price volatility increased significantly. Nickel prices first rose and then fell, fluctuating in the range of 115,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton. Intensified ore - end contradictions led to a significant increase in nickel ore premiums, pushing up pyrometallurgical smelting costs. However, concerns about Trump's tariff policies and the release of supply elasticity in Indonesia limited the upside of refined nickel prices [6]. - From May to June 2025, nickel prices returned to range - bound fluctuations, but the center of the fluctuation gradually moved down, in the range of about 118,000 - 127,000 yuan/ton. The tight supply of Indonesian nickel ore continued, but market concerns about the ore end eased. Negative feedback from stainless steel production cuts also limited the upside of nickel prices [7]. 1.2 Stainless Steel Market Review - From January to March 2025, steel prices oscillated upward due to the combined effect of rising costs and peak - season expectations. The cost of stainless steel increased, and the price reached 13,800 yuan/ton, with a maximum cumulative increase of 8% [14]. - From April to May 2025, steel prices mainly followed overseas tariff policies. Trump's tariff policies led to a sharp decline in market risk appetite, and steel prices dropped. After the relaxation of tariffs, steel prices rose to 13,100 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 3% [14]. - In early June 2025, the center of steel price fluctuations moved down. The supply elasticity of ferronickel was released, and stainless steel entered a negative - feedback logic, with costs decreasing and inventory digestion slow [15]. 2. Supply 2.1 Front - end Smelting - **Short - term Supply**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Indonesian hydrometallurgical intermediate products was 184,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 73,000 tons), and the single - month output in May was 39,000 tons. The cumulative output of pyrometallurgical intermediate products was 114,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 14,000 tons), and the single - month output in May was 16,000 tons. It is expected that the actual supply of Indonesian MHP in 2025 may increase by 44% (150,000 tons) year - on - year to 480,000 tons, while the actual supply of nickel matte may maintain a negative growth rate [20][21][25]. - **Long - term Consideration**: Hydrometallurgy has cost advantages, but it is difficult for it to make deep concessions. Although the profits of hydrometallurgical projects are considerable, the initial investment is high, and the pay - back period is long. A sharp decline in nickel prices may impact future hydrometallurgical supply expectations [32][36]. 2.2 Back - end Smelting - The supply of back - end smelting, including refined nickel and nickel sulfate, is in an over - supply situation. The supply increment of refined nickel is mainly in China. It is expected that the global refined nickel supply will increase by 9% (90,000 tons) year - on - year to 1.11 million tons in 2025. The global supply of nickel sulfate raw materials is expected to slightly decrease year - on - year to 420,000 tons [40][41][55]. 2.3 Ferronickel and Stainless Steel - **Ferronickel**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Indonesian ferronickel was 704,000 tons (year - on - year increase of 104,000 tons), and that of Chinese ferronickel was 131,000 tons (year - on - year decrease of 5,000 tons). It is expected that the global ferronickel supply will increase by 4.8% (100,000 tons) year - on - year to 2.17 million tons in 2025 [62][65]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of May 2025, the cumulative output of Chinese stainless steel was 16.1 million tons (year - on - year increase of 780,000 tons), and that of Indonesian stainless steel was 2.12 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 9,000 tons). Supply elasticity limits the profit range, and stainless steel valuation may be anchored to costs. It is expected that in 2025, stainless steel production and imports will change by +4% and - 23% year - on - year to 39.85 million tons and 1.45 million tons respectively, with a total supply growth rate of about 2.9% [75][78][80]. 2.4 Nickel Ore - In the short term, the tight supply of nickel ore is still a reality, but this supporting logic may become dull in the second half of the year. Concerns about Philippine policies have eased, and rainfall disturbances are expected to subside. Market concerns about Indonesian nickel ore may also ease in the second half of the year [87][88][91].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Nickel**: The concern about the nickel ore end has cooled down, while the supply elasticity of the smelting end is sufficient. The potential removal of the raw ore export ban clause in the final version of the mining fiscal system bill may ease the speculation on the ore end. The supply of the smelting end is abundant, and the stainless - steel demand is weak, which may limit the upside of nickel prices [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the destocking in reality is less than expected. The steel price will fluctuate at a low level in the short term. The overseas tariff pressure and the off - season demand limit the upside of steel prices. The negative feedback has led to supply cuts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals 3.1.1 Nickel - The short - term strength of the nickel ore end remains, but the long - term concern has decreased. The potential removal of the export ban in the Philippines and the news of increased quotas in Indonesia have affected the market expectations. The smelting end has sufficient supply elasticity, and the weak stainless - steel demand may lead to a surplus in the nickel - iron market and limit the upside of refined nickel prices [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - The supply and demand are both weak. The negative feedback has led to production cuts. The domestic and Indonesian stainless - steel production in June has decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The overseas tariff pressure and the off - season demand limit the upside of steel prices. The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [2]. 3.2 Inventory Changes - **Refined Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel social inventory decreased by 92 tons to 37,908 tons. The LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,568 tons to 197,538 tons [3]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The nickel - iron inventory at the end of May was 31,462 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 59% and 6% respectively, with increasing inventory pressure [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel social inventory was 1,145,508 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.07%. The cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless - steel inventories also increased [4]. - **Nickel Ore**: The Chinese nickel ore inventory increased by 250,100 wet tons to 7.2187 million wet tons [5]. 3.3 Market News - In March, the Ontario provincial governor in Canada threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US due to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill will continue to shut down for maintenance from June to July, affecting about 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [6]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the removal of the raw ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [7]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 119,920, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,550 [9]. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 86,947, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 130,382 [9]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: Data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, nickel - iron, stainless - steel products, and relevant spreads and premiums are provided in the table [9].