成本支撑与地缘风险交 织，预计镍价延续震荡 镍月报 2026/03/06 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：2月菲律宾镍矿受春节假期与雨季双重影响，交易清淡、供应受限，叠加矿价偏高与冶炼厂节前备库充足，需求整体疲软。印尼镍矿 市场聚焦 RKAB 开采配额审批，配额大幅收紧致冶炼厂缺矿压力凸显，叠加雨季与斋月临近扰动生产，供应增量受限。尽管印尼内贸基准价格 小幅回落，但多重供应约束支撑国内升水趋强，整体价格偏强格局未改。 ◆ 镍铁：2月高镍生铁价格维持强势，截至月底，SMM10-12%高镍生铁均价上涨至1085元/镍点（出厂含税），主要受上游挺价推动。供应端方面， 上游厂商报价依旧维持坚挺，价格支撑较强。需求端，下游刚需采购有所释放，高镍生铁成交量环比回升，带动市场价格重 ...

每经记者｜黄鑫磊 每经编辑｜金冥羽 陈星 记者|黄鑫磊 编辑|金冥羽 陈星 杜波 校对|许绍航 近日，印尼能源与矿产资源部宣布，将2026年镍矿RKAB开采配额锁定在2.6亿吨左右，较2025年的3.79亿吨骤降约30%，叠加印尼韦达湾镍矿配额缩减超 7成的消息，迅速引发全球镍价大涨。 面对供应链变局，不同业务结构的国内镍企应对态势呈现分化。有冶炼端企业如盛屯矿业（SH600711，股价16.98元，市值524.79亿元）凭借库存缓冲行 情变动，并认为短期内镍价会出现宽幅震荡，而长期会形成对镍价的支撑。 镍价大涨 公开数据显示，近期镍价受印尼政策催化呈现剧烈波动，内外盘价格同步走强。 2月11日，沪镍主力2603合约以13.34万元/吨开盘，午后突然放量拉升，盘中一度突破14万元/吨，最终收于13.94万元/吨，单日涨幅4.02%；2月12日，沪镍 主连（NI888）期货报收13.96万元/吨，涨幅为1.79%。 伦镍方面，2月11日，LME伦镍日内涨超3%，报18015美元/吨，当前注册仓单275574吨，注销仓单10176吨，增加384吨，镍库存285750吨，与上一日持 平；LME期镍收涨390美元，报 ...

ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍上涨，沪期镍主力月2603合约开盘报139960元/吨，盘中最高报 141460元/吨，最低价报139120元/吨，收盘报139610元/吨，上涨2450元/吨，涨幅为1.79%，沪镍主力月 2603主力合约成交量4223838手。 据长江有色属网统计：2月12日ccmn长江综合1#镍价140950元/吨-149750元/吨，均价报145350元/吨，较 前一日价格上涨2800元，长江现货1#镍报140550元/吨-150150元/吨，均价报145350元/吨，较前一日价 格上涨2750，广东现货镍报150150元/吨-150550元/吨，均价报150350元/吨，较前一日价格上涨3100 元。 ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，2月12日镍价延续强势，内外盘同步走高。驱动此轮上涨的核心逻辑在于"政 策主导的供应收缩"与"宏观流动性预期改善"形成共振。印尼大幅削减镍矿配额的政策影响持续发酵， 从根本上改变了市场的供应预期；而美元阶段性走弱与新能源板块的结构性走强，共同为价格上涨提供 了宏观与资金面的支撑。短期来看，由供给收缩引发的强势格局已较为明确。 供应端：收缩态势明显 高价围城： ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (300919) saw a significant increase of over 10%, currently trading at 37.42 HKD with a transaction volume of 94.45 million HKD, driven by news regarding Indonesia's nickel mining quota for 2026, which is set at 260 to 270 million tons, significantly lower than the 2025 target of 379 million tons [1] Group 1: Company Insights - The company has secured a supply of 60 million wet tons of nickel ore through investments, partnerships, long-term agreements, and exclusive sales, which positions it favorably as nickel ore export quotas tighten, potentially leading to price increases [1] - Zhongwei New Materials has established nickel smelting capacity of 195,000 metal tons, creating a vertically integrated ecosystem from resource extraction to smelting and materials, which will positively impact its operating profits as LME nickel prices rise [1] Group 2: Industry Context - Nickel is one of the few non-participants in the ongoing bull market for non-ferrous metals in 2024, according to research from Zhongyou Securities, indicating a potential supply-demand gap due to Indonesian policy changes that could lead to significant price rebounds [1]

行业 镍日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 11 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 每日报告 地下矿逐步达产。另外，公司预计 2026 年镍产量为 17.5-20 万吨，高于 2025 年产量指导。 请阅读正文后的声明 - 3 - 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 镍价日内降波调整，主力 2603 收盘报 133350 元/吨，微跌 0.19%。菲律宾雨 季叠加印尼政策扰动，海外镍矿价格均显著上涨，考虑到印尼冶炼产能仍在扩张， 2.5 亿吨的配额可能导致 2026 年出现结构性的矿端短缺。矿价坚挺给予高镍生铁 价格成本支撑，8-12%高镍生铁 ...

ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍震荡下跌，沪期镍主力月2603合约开盘报134520元/吨，盘中最高报 134900元/吨，最低价报132600元/吨，收盘报133350元/吨，下跌260元/吨，跌幅为0.19%，沪镍主力月 2603主力合约成交量281436手。 据长江有色属网统计：2月10日ccmn长江综合1#镍价135100元/吨-144100元/吨，均价报139600元/吨，较 前一日价格下跌700元，长江现货1#镍报134650元/吨-144650元/吨，均价报139650元/吨，较前一日价格 下跌700元，广东现货镍报143150元/吨-143550元/吨，均价报143350元/吨，较前一日价格下跌700元。 ccmn镍市分析：宏观面，今日，国内镍价呈现震荡偏弱下行走势，精准契合节前有色板块普遍走弱的 市场节奏，核心受宏观情绪降温、资金避险离场、春节淡季三重因素协同驱动。具体来看，宏观面受美 元指数低位震荡反弹、美债收益率小幅上行影响，以美元计价的大宗商品风险偏好受到压制，资金从有 色板块获利了结；基本面随着春节临近，下游备货已彻底进入尾声，刚需收缩叠加市场观望情绪升温， 让镍价失去向上支撑；资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector has a strong atmosphere, and the enthusiasm for long - position trading by funds remains high. Shanghai nickel maintains a strong and volatile operation supported by supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. On the 29th, the main contract closed at 147,470, up 1.79%. The total open interest decreased by 6,026 lots to 387,000 lots compared with the previous day [7]. - The latest news indicates that the RKAB approval quota may be adjusted to 2.6 billion tons, and the expected shortage of nickel ore supply supports miners to continuously raise quotes. The ex - factory average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained flat at 1,055 yuan per nickel point. The strong bullish sentiment at the pure nickel end drove the price of nickel iron to rise. However, due to high costs, the downstream's willingness to accept has decreased, but there were few low - price transactions, and the overall price remained firm supported by the nickel price [7]. - In 2026, although some old 2026 RKAB quotas can be used in the first quarter, the delay in the verification of the MOMS system of most mines has affected their normal shipments. Previously, Vale also stated that the currently approved quota is only 30% of the production demand, further strengthening the expectation of quota reduction. It is necessary to closely follow the policy statements of the Indonesian government and the actual quota issuance rhythm in the future. It is expected that policy disturbances will support the nickel market to continue to have significant upward elasticity [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The non - ferrous metals sector is in a strong atmosphere, and funds are enthusiastic about long - position trading. Shanghai nickel is in a strong and volatile state supported by supply - side disturbances in Indonesia. On the 29th, the main contract closed at 147,470 with a 1.79% increase, and the total open interest decreased by 6,026 lots to 387,000 lots [7]. - The RKAB approval quota may be adjusted to 2.6 billion tons, leading to an expected shortage of nickel ore supply and prompting miners to raise quotes. The ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron remained flat, and the price of nickel iron rose following the strong sentiment at the pure nickel end. High costs reduced the downstream's acceptance, but low - price transactions were rare, and the price remained firm [7]. - In 2026, quota availability and shipment issues, along with Vale's statement on approved quotas, strengthen the quota reduction expectation. Policy disturbances are expected to bring upward elasticity to the nickel market [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - PT Vale Indonesia is accelerating the commissioning of the HPAL Pomalaa project in Southeast Sulawesi. As of December 2025, the project's construction progress reached about 60%. Two autoclave units have arrived at the project site, and three more are planned for subsequent delivery. The company aims to complete the mechanized construction of the HPAL Pomalaa factory by August 2026. PT Vale is the sole nickel ore supplier for the HPAL Pomalaa factory [8][10]. - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. released its preliminary production data for 2025 and production, cost, and capital expenditure guidelines for 2026 - 2028. In 2025, its copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised guidance range; gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit of the guidance; and Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered the production guidelines for copper and gold in 2026 - 2027, while keeping the nickel production guideline unchanged. The unit cash cost of copper and AISC are expected to be higher than previously expected, and the 2026 capital expenditure guideline is raised [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to strategically adjust the nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to 250 - 260 million tons in 2026. The existing quotas are allowed to be extended until March 31, 2026, and the actual annual supply depends on later government evaluations and quota supplements [10].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (02579) has seen a significant increase in stock price, attributed to its strategic investments and partnerships in nickel resources, which are expected to enhance profitability amid tightening nickel export quotas [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zhongwei New Materials' stock price rose by over 4% in the morning session, currently trading at 40.3 HKD with a transaction volume of 75.8574 million HKD [1] - The company has secured a supply of 600 million wet tons of nickel ore through various investment and partnership strategies, which is anticipated to positively impact profitability as nickel prices rise [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Everbright Futures, short-term policies in Indonesia are supporting nickel prices, while potential future quota increases and high inventory levels may exert downward pressure on prices [1] - Guoxin Securities noted that the company's nickel product shipments are consistently increasing, indicating stable operational performance, with expectations for nickel project capacity to continue to ramp up [1] - The company has established nickel smelting capacity of 195,000 metal tons, creating a vertically integrated ecosystem from resource extraction to material production, which is expected to benefit from rising LME nickel prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (02579) has secured a supply of 600 million wet tons of nickel ore resources through investments, equity participation, long-term cooperation agreements, and exclusive sales, which is expected to positively impact profitability as nickel ore export quotas tighten, leading to price increases [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The company has established nickel resource smelting capacity of 195,000 metal tons, creating a vertically integrated ecosystem from resource extraction to smelting and materials [1] - The increase in LME nickel prices is anticipated to have a positive effect on the company's operating profits [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Everbright Futures suggests that Indonesian policies are providing short-term support for nickel prices, with market sentiment driving prices higher, although potential quota supplements and high inventory levels may exert downward pressure in the long term [1] - Guoxin Securities previously noted that the company's nickel product shipments are continuously increasing, indicating stable operational performance [1] - The company is expected to achieve a nickel self-supply volume of 90,000 to 100,000 tons by 2025 as production capacity continues to be released [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (300919) has seen a nearly 5% increase in stock price, currently trading at 37.46 HKD, with a transaction volume of 30.03 million HKD [1] Company Summary - The company has secured 500-600 million wet tons of nickel ore resources through investments, equity participation, and long-term agreements [1] - Zhongwei has established four nickel raw material industrial bases in Indonesia, creating an integrated resource-smelting-materials industry chain [1] - The company has built a nickel smelting capacity of 195,000 metal tons, with an equity capacity of approximately 120,000 tons [1] - The annual production capacity of high nickel is 60,000 tons, which is expected to be fully operational by January 2026, with full production anticipated in 2026 [1] Industry Summary - Since early 2025, Indonesia has introduced a series of policies, including the SIMBARA full industry chain regulation and mandatory foreign exchange settlement for natural resource exports, aimed at strengthening control over nickel supply and supporting nickel prices [1] - Due to persistently low nickel prices, there may be expectations of reduced nickel ore quotas in 2026, highlighting the need to monitor future changes in Indonesia's quota policies and the current capacity clearance process [1]