资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 镍：累库边际放缓，矿端支撑火法成本上移 不锈钢：需求与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 2026 年 3 月 31 日 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 137,120 | 20 | 4,140 | 720 | -3,920 | 10,370 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 14,370 | -20 | 335 | 250 | 105 | 1,415 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 336,342 | 20,315 | -127,540 | -14,574 | -31,857 | -280,657 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 164,447 | -12,906 | -68,395 | -78,531 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The core view is that for nickel, the tight supply at the mine end supports the current situation, while the inventory accumulation in smelting limits its upward potential; for stainless steel, the macro - risk preference causes disturbances, and the actual cost center moves up [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 137,160, with changes of - 250 compared to T - 5, - 4,090 compared to T - 10, etc. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 14,215, with changes of - 5 compared to T - 5, - 30 compared to T - 10, etc. [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 309,179, with a decrease of 192,726 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 209,344, with a decrease of 51,155 compared to T - 1 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 136,400, with a decrease of 1,800 compared to T - 1. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,090, with an increase of 4 compared to T - 1 [1]. - The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,450, with no change compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu is 14,950, with no change compared to T - 1 [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 32,070, with an increase of 135 compared to T - 5 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and one of the revision points is to treat cobalt, a by - product of nickel, as an independent commodity and levy royalties [1]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the significant rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions on its local facilities. The expected restart time of the CGN mine is around April - May 2026, which is consistent with the restart time of the PRONICO ferronickel plant [2]. - The ESDM released the 2026 nickel work plan and cost budget (RKAB) on February 10, 2026. The approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million tons and 270 million tons. PT Weda Bay Nickel (PT WBN) received a preliminary notice from the Indonesian authorities to submit an RKAB reflecting an annual production and sales volume of 12 million tons, a 70% reduction compared to 2025 [4][6]. - Philippine miners said on February 12 that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [5]. - On February 18, 2026, a landslide occurred in the tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, resulting in one worker's death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [5]. - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Moa, Cuba, due to limited fuel supply on February 17, 2026. It suspended mining operations and put the processing plant on standby for planned maintenance [5]. - The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group (PKH Working Group) imposed sanctions on four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province. These companies were fined according to the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' Decree No. 391.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2025, with a fine standard of 6.5 million Indonesian rupiah per hectare [6]. - The ESDM estimated that the nickel ore production in 2026 is about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [6]. - The APNI said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with 0 indicating a neutral view [8].