Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The current fundamentals of nickel are weak, but the contradiction in the ore end and cost support limit the downward elasticity of Shanghai nickel. Stainless steel prices are under pressure from marginal inventory accumulation, but the raw material end contradiction restricts the downward space, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5][6]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon shows a weakly oscillating pattern with inventory accumulation and weakening downstream demand. Polysilicon has weak fundamentals and is affected by concentrated cancellation. The market is expected to pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [29][30][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side news causes frequent disturbances. Although the market focuses on the approval progress of Zimbabwe, the increase in raw material shipments from Australia and Chile in April will supplement the raw materials. The downstream replenishment willingness is not strong in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [62][65]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: International oil prices dominate the palm oil market. The post - Eid al - Fitr origin structure has weakened, and the April production recovery degree will be a key factor for the annual market. The soybean oil market is affected by the US bio - fuel blending policy, and the price center is expected to return to the middle [84][85][88]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Soybean meal is oscillating and waiting for new drivers. Soybean has no driving force for the time being and the disk is oscillating. The market should pay attention to the April USDA supply and demand report, Sino - US trade progress, and South American weather [99][105]. - **Corn**: The corn market should focus on the inventory at the northern ports. The spot price has declined, and the futures price is affected by policy auction rumors and other factors. The price is expected to have a callback trend, but it is still a thinking of buying on dips [127][128][131]. - **Sugar**: Keep an eye on crude oil and maintain an oscillating and bullish thinking in the long term. The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market is affected by import rhythm and cost [148][150][173]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton futures are expected to maintain a strong trend, and domestic cotton futures will maintain an oscillating trend. The market should focus on the new - year planting and relevant policies [175][176][190]. - **Hogs**: The de - stocking of hogs is less than expected, and the bottom has not appeared. The spot price is expected to continue to decline in April, and the LH2605 contract of futures should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. - **Peanuts**: Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills. The peanut price has declined, and the futures are recommended to go long on dips. The market should pay attention to the digestion progress of the remaining goods in Henan in April and the impact of temperature on peanut indicators [205][206]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel is supported by marginal cost but limited by weak fundamentals. Stainless steel is under pressure from inventory accumulation and supported by raw material contradictions [5][6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1,815 tons to 87,892 tons on April 3, and the LME inventory decreased by 78 tons to 281,496 tons. The inventory of the nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain decreased [7][8]. - **Market News**: There are many news about nickel mines in Indonesia, including the adjustment of the benchmark price, the restart of mines in other regions, and the change of production quotas [10][11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices both declined. Industrial silicon is affected by downstream production cuts, and polysilicon is affected by weak demand and concentrated cancellation [29]. - **Supply and Demand**: Industrial silicon supply has partial复产, and demand has weakened. Polysilicon supply has decreased in the short term, and demand is also weak [30][31][33]. - **Outlook**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate weakly, and polysilicon should pay attention to the impact of concentrated cancellation [34]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined, and the spot price increased slightly. The basis weakened [61]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased, and demand has downstream replenishment. The inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks [62][63][64]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the supply - side news [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's View**: Palm oil was affected by geopolitical situation and B50 news, and soybean oil was affected by crude oil and other factors [84]. - **This Week's View**: Palm oil is still dominated by energy prices, and the April production recovery is crucial. Soybean oil is affected by the US bio - fuel policy and South American weather [85][88]. - **Data**: The trading volume and price of palm oil and soybean oil futures have changed, and the inventory and export data of palm oil are also different [91]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Last Week's Market**: The US soybean price oscillated, and the domestic soybean meal price was weak, while the soybean price was sideways [99][100]. - **Fundamentals**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased, the Brazilian soybean import cost decreased, and the US soybean planting area was slightly higher than expected [100]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and soybean are expected to oscillate, and pay attention to relevant reports and news [105]. Corn - **Market Review**: The corn spot price declined, and the futures price was affected by policy and inventory [127][128]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn declined, wheat price decreased, and corn starch inventory increased. Pay attention to the inventory at the northern ports [128][129][131]. Sugar - **This Week's Review**: The international sugar price declined, and the domestic sugar price increased slightly. The net long position of funds increased [148][149]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The international sugar market is dominated by macro - drivers, and the domestic market should pay attention to import policies [150][173]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton reached a new high this year, and domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market should focus on new - year planting [175][176]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton planting area is expected to increase, and the export data is good. The domestic cotton price is slightly lower, and the downstream demand is weak [179][180][184]. Hogs - **This Week's Review**: The hog spot price was weak, and the futures price declined. The supply increased, and the demand was mainly for inventory [193]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The hog price is expected to continue to decline, and the LH2605 contract should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [193][194]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: The peanut spot price declined, and the futures price also decreased. The supply has certain pressure, and the demand is different for different types of peanuts [205]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips. Pay attention to the purchase of oil mills and the impact of temperature [206].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Inventory accumulation is slowing down marginally, and the cost of pyrometallurgy is rising due to support from the ore end [1]. - Stainless steel: The price is oscillating as demand and cost are in a game [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,120, with a change of 20 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,370, with a change of - 20 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 336,342, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 164,447 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 135,150, with a change of - 1,300 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,083, with a change of - 1 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 14,400, with a change of - 50 compared to T - 1 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Policy**: Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore (HPM) as a new revenue source. The revision mainly involves the pricing of cobalt and other elements, and details are pending official release [2]. - **Mine Restart**: Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel price and the removal of local facility restrictions. The annual production capacity of PRONICO is 25,000 tons of nickel - iron alloy, and the annual production of CGN mine is 2.2 million tons [3]. - **Production Quota**: The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 260 million tons and 270 million tons. PT WBN's production and sales quota is cut by 70% compared to 2025. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) expects the revised RKAB in 2026 to increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [4][5][6]. - **Accidents and Sanctions**: A landslide occurred in the tailings area of IMIP in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area. Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned and fined [5][6]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons. LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons [8]. - **New Energy**: On March 26, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines remained unchanged at 5, 7, and 7 days month - on - month. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.6 to 13.0 days month - on - month, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.4 to 7.1 days month - on - month [8]. - **Nickel - iron and Stainless Steel**: On March 26, SMM nickel - iron full - industrial - chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons and 4% week - on - week. In February, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.65 million tons, with a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 10% and 8% respectively. The steel - union stainless - steel social inventory was 1.1575 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [8]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel**: The marginal slowdown of inventory accumulation and the rising cost of pyrometallurgy supported by the ore end. The contradiction in the ore end is intensifying, and the marginal cash cost of pyrometallurgy may rise to nearly 135,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, the nickel price is still supported by the contradictions in the ore end and wet - process supply. However, the potential quota revision by the Indonesian APNI Association reduces the upward elasticity of Shanghai nickel. Short - term attention should be paid to the covered strategy, and focus on the nickel ore contradiction in Indonesia [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between demand and cost, and the steel price will fluctuate. The macro - pressure and weak demand have a negative impact, but the raw material cost restricts the downward elasticity, so the steel price is expected to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On March 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,690 tons to 86,077 tons. LME inventory decreased by 1,938 tons to 281,574 tons [3]. - **New Energy**: On March 26, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines remained unchanged month - on - month at 5, 7, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.6 to 13.0 days month - on - month, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.4 to 7.1 days month - on - month [4][5]. - **Ferronickel - Stainless Steel**: On March 26, the SMM ferronickel full - industry chain inventory decreased by 8% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons and decreased by 4% week - on - week. In February, the SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.65 million tons, with a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 10% and 8% respectively. The Steel Union stainless steel social inventory was 1.1575 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [5]. Market News - Indonesia plans to adjust the benchmark price of nickel ore as a new source of income for the mining industry, and the details of the revision are basically finalized [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [6]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is between 260 million and 270 million tons [6]. - Philippine miners said that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [7]. - A landslide occurred in a tailings area in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the operation of the affected area has been suspended [7]. - Sherritt International Corporation has scaled back its operations in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [7]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel's production quota has been cut by 70% compared to 2025 [7]. - Four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, have been sanctioned and fined [8]. - Indonesia's estimated nickel ore production in 2026 is about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [8]. - The revision of Indonesia's 2026 RKAB is expected to be approved in July, and the nickel production quota may be increased by up to 30% [8]. - Indonesia aims to complete the RKAB approval for mining and coal in March 2026 [8]. - On March 25, the Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the production targets for coal and nickel may be relaxed this year [9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain, including 1 imported nickel, ferronickel, stainless steel products, and nickel sulfate [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, there are contradictions between the macro - situation and the mine end, intensifying the short - term long - short game. The Middle - East conflict and overseas inflation expectations put pressure on the non - ferrous metals market, but the mine end and wet - process supply contradictions support nickel prices in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the covered strategy. Focus on the Indonesian nickel mine contradictions and the implementation of supplementary quotas [2]. - For stainless steel, there is overseas macro - suppression, but real - cost support. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the cost may limit the downward elasticity in the short term. Mid - term nickel - steel arbitrage opportunities can be considered [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions Analysis 3.1.1 Shanghai Nickel - Macro factors such as the US - Iran conflict and overseas inflation expectations put pressure on the non - ferrous metals market. The short - term interest - rate cut expectation has sharply declined, and the probability of a long - term interest - rate increase has risen. - On the fundamental side, the current mine - end contradictions and pyrometallurgical costs may limit the downward elasticity of nickel compared to other non - ferrous metals. The total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in March increased by $25 year - on - year to $71, pushing the marginal pyrometallurgical cash cost above 130,000 yuan/ton. - If the mine - end contradictions and wet - process supply problems fade in the middle of the year, the logic of wet - process replacing pyrometallurgical marginal costs may emerge. But in the short term, the marginal cost is still the integrated pyrometallurgical path. - The Indonesian APNI Association mentioned a 30% quota revision space, reducing the upward elasticity of Shanghai Nickel. Pay attention to the covered strategy in the short term [2]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - The US - Iran conflict's shipping problems have a negative pressure expectation on the global economy. Stainless steel consumption in the Middle East accounts for about 2% of the global total. Overseas inflation expectations significantly reduce the probability of interest - rate cuts, and the expectation of tightened liquidity puts pressure on risk assets. - The supply - demand contradiction of stainless steel is not large. The destocking level after the Spring Festival in recent weeks is acceptable compared to the same period in previous years, but the upstream inventory is at a relatively high historical level. The production schedule in March soared to 3.63 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month increase of 40%. Among them, the production of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.25 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0% and a month - on - month increase of 49%. - The main contradiction lies in the raw material end. The cash - cost break - even line for delivery on the spot market has risen to nearly 14,100 yuan/ton. The total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in March increased by $25 year - on - year to $71, and the marginal cost of Indonesian ferronickel has increased by nearly 20%, with the full cost at around 1,070 yuan/nickel. The overall cost may temporarily limit the downward elasticity [3]. 3.2 Inventory Tracking - On March 20, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 641 tons to 84,387 tons, with warehouse - receipt inventory increasing by 228 tons to 56,690 tons, spot inventory increasing by 413 tons to 24,727 tons, and bonded - area inventory remaining unchanged at 2,970 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,146 tons to 283,512 tons [4]. - On March 20, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines remained unchanged month - on - month at 5, 7, and 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.6 month - on - month to 13.0 days, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.3 month - on - month to 7.2 days [5][6]. - On March 20, the SMM ferronickel full - industry chain inventory decreased by 4% month - on - month to 126,000 metal tons and decreased by 4% week - on - week. In February, the SMM stainless - steel mill inventory was 1.65 million tons, with a year - on - month increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The stainless - steel social inventory was 1.1274 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.32%. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 691,400 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.07%, and the hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 436,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.10% [6]. 3.3 Market News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [6]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala in a few months due to the sharp rebound in nickel prices and the US lifting restrictions on its local facilities. The expected restart time of the CGN mine is around April - May 2026, consistent with the restart time of the PRONICO ferronickel plant [7]. - On February 10, the ESDM released the 2026 nickel work plan and cost budget (RKAB). The approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons [7]. - On February 12, Philippine miners said that the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [8]. - On February 18, 2026, a landslide occurred in a tailings area in the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, resulting in one worker's death and the suspension of the affected area's operations [8]. - On February 17, 2026, Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Moa, Cuba, due to limited fuel supply. It suspended mining operations and put the processing plant on standby for planned maintenance [8]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel (PT WBN) received a preliminary notice from the Indonesian authorities to submit a work plan and budget (RKAB), with the annual production and sales (internal and external) volume of 12 million tons, a 70% reduction compared to 2025 [8]. - The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group (PKH Working Group) imposed sanctions on four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province. These companies were fined according to the regulations, with the nickel ore commodity fine standard at 6.5 million Indonesian rupiah per hectare [9]. - The ESDM estimated that Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 will be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of ferronickel and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [9]. - The APNI said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [9]. - The ESDM aims to complete the approval of the 2026 mineral and coal mining work plan and budget (RKAB) by the end of March 2026 [9]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides a table of weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless steel, including closing prices, trading volumes, prices of various nickel products, and price differences [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Nickel**: The accumulation of smelting inventories and macro - sentiment resonate, while the shortage at the mine end supports the bottom. Although the logic of resource - based and strategic reserve narratives still exists, short - term attention should be paid to the change in the conflict situation. In terms of fundamentals, Indonesia's resource management actions may stimulate market sentiment, but the 30% quota revision space mentioned by the APNI Association reduces the upward elasticity of Shanghai nickel. The mine - end contradiction is real in the first half of the year, pushing up the integrated pyrometallurgical cash cost to 130,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, trading should focus on the current mine - end contradiction, with a strategy of buying on dips near the pyrometallurgical cost. From late March to April, attention should be paid to the supply release of the Philippines and Indonesia's second - round supplementary quota. If the supply is less than expected, nickel prices may remain strong [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is disturbed by macro - risk preferences, and the actual cost center has shifted upward. The shipping problem in the US - Iran conflict has a negative impact on the global economy, reducing market risk preferences. The supply - demand contradiction of stainless steel is not significant, but high production schedules pose challenges to consumption verification. The cost logic provides support for stainless steel, and the strategy in March is to go long at low intervals while being vigilant about macro - risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On March 13, China's social inventory increased by 2,397 tons to 83,746 tons, with warehouse receipt inventory increasing by 2,894 tons to 56,462 tons, spot inventory decreasing by 197 tons to 24,314 tons, and bonded area inventory decreasing by 300 tons to 2,970 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,892 tons to 284,658 tons [4]. - **New Energy**: On March 13, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed monthly by 0, - 2, and 0 to 5, 7, and 7 days respectively. On March 12, the precursor inventory changed monthly by - 0.5 to 13.1 days, and the ternary material inventory changed monthly by - 0.2 to 7.2 days [4]. - **Nickel - iron and Stainless Steel**: On March 12, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 10% monthly to 131,000 metal tons and decreased by 1% weekly. In February, the SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.65 million tons, increasing by 10% year - on - year and 8% month - on - month. On March 12, the Mysteel stainless steel social inventory was 1.1425 million tons, decreasing by 0.66% weekly. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless steel inventory was 706,000 tons, decreasing by 1.14% weekly, and the hot - rolled stainless steel inventory was 436,500 tons, increasing by 0.14% weekly [4]. 3.2 Market News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and the government will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and collecting royalties [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the significant rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of US restrictions [5]. - The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced the 2026 nickel work plan and cost budget, with the approved nickel ore production quota between 260 million and 270 million tons [5]. - Philippine miners said on February 12 that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [6]. - On February 18, a landslide occurred in a tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [6]. - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply, suspending mining operations and putting the processing plant on standby for maintenance [6]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel received a preliminary notice from the Indonesian authorities, with a production and sales quota of 12 million tons in the work plan and budget, a 70% reduction compared to 2025 [6]. - The Indonesian Forest Area Management Working Group imposed sanctions on four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province, and they were fined according to the regulations [7]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated the 2026 nickel ore production to be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of nickel - iron and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [7]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) said that the revision of the 2026 work plan and budget is expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% [9]. 3.3 Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 136,930 yuan, with a change of - 1,170 yuan compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,190 yuan, with a change of - 95 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 402,936 lots, and that of the stainless steel main contract was 183,920 lots [12]. - **Industrial Chain**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 137,950 yuan, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 1,095 yuan, and the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) was 14,450 yuan [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel**: The tight supply at the mine end supports the current situation, while the accumulation of smelting inventory limits price elasticity. In the short - term, trading is mainly based on the current mine - end contradictions, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips relying on the pyrometallurgical cost. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the supply elasticity of the Philippines and the second - round supplementary quota in Indonesia [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic risk preferences cause disturbances, and the actual cost center has shifted upwards. In March, it is advisable to try long positions at low levels in the range, while being vigilant about macro risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: Indonesia is implementing various resource management measures, and the APNI Association mentioned a possible 30% quota revision in the middle of the year, which reduces the enthusiasm of speculative funds. In March, the total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore increased by $25 year - on - year to $70, and the integrated pyrometallurgical cash cost rose to 130,000 yuan/ton. If the mine - end contradictions fade in the middle of the year, there may be a logic of hydrometallurgy replacing pyrometallurgical marginal cost [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The conflict between the US and Iran has a negative impact on the global economy. The consumption of stainless steel in the Middle East accounts for about 2% of the global total. The market risk preference has decreased, and overseas inflation and interest - rate cut expectations are disturbed. The supply - demand contradiction of stainless steel itself is not significant. High - price stimulation has led to an increase in stainless steel production in March, and the cost logic support for stainless steel has shifted upwards [2]. 3.2. Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On March 6, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 4,730 tons to 81,349 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 426 tons to 287,550 tons [3][4]. - **New Energy**: On March 6, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by 0, - 2, 0 month - on - month to 5, 7, 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.3 month - on - month to 13.3 days, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.1 month - on - month to 7.3 days [4]. - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On March 5, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 10% month - on - month to 133,000 metal tons. In February, the SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.65 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 10%/8%. On March 5, the stainless steel social inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94% [4]. 3.3. Market News - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore in early 2026 and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [5]. - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months [5]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons [5]. - Philippine miners said the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [6]. - A landslide occurred in a tailings area in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [6]. - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [6]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel's production quota was cut by 70% compared with 2025 [7]. - Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned and fined [7]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated the nickel ore production in 2026 to be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of nickel - iron and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [7]. - The APNI Association said the revised RKAB in 2026 may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% and is expected to be approved in July [8]. 3.4. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain, such as the price of 1 imported nickel, the premium of nickel beans, and the price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel, the reality of Indonesian mines is catching up, and speculative attributes should be watched out for in March. The current high inventory of nickel may limit the price elasticity, but the expected shortage of mines is gradually becoming a reality. In March, the tight supply situation of mines is unlikely to ease significantly. The price of Indonesian nickel mines has risen significantly. The short - term marginal cost is the integrated pyrometallurgical path, and it is advisable to try long positions at low levels in March. In the medium - to - long term, it is necessary to track whether Indonesia increases the quota and whether the supply elasticity of the Philippines is released as expected [1]. - For stainless steel, the contradiction at the mine end has increased marginally, and the cost support has shifted upward. The speculative attributes of Shanghai Nickel in the mine - end game also drive stainless steel. In March, the mine - end contradiction may still ferment, and it is advisable to try long positions at low levels within the range, while the fundamentals mainly limit the elasticity [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The speculative attributes of the market are dominant, and the open interest is still increasing at a high level. The current high inventory of nickel may limit price elasticity. The expected shortage of mines is becoming a reality. The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia has increased by $23 year - on - year and $14 month - on - month in February to $68. The integrated pyrometallurgical cash cost has risen to 130,000 yuan/ton. It is advisable to try long positions lightly at low levels in March, and track two key points in the medium - to - long term [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The contradiction at the mine end drives up the cost of ferronickel, and the cost support for stainless steel has shifted upward. In March, the mine - end contradiction may still ferment, and the speculative funds will support the market. The supply - demand contradiction in the stainless steel segment is not significant, and the high production schedule in March faces challenges in consumption verification. It is advisable to try long positions lightly at low levels within the range [2]. 3.2 Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On February 27, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 3,616 tons to 76,619 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 888 tons to 287,976 tons [3]. - **New Energy**: On February 27, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed to 5, 7, and 7 days respectively compared with the previous month. The precursor inventory increased by 0.5 to 13.6 days month - on - month, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.5 to 7.5 days month - on - month [4]. - **Ferronickel - Stainless Steel**: On February 27, the full - industry chain inventory of SMM ferronickel increased by 9% month - on - month to 131,000 metal tons. In January, the stainless steel factory inventory of SMM was 1.5 million tons. On February 26, the stainless steel social inventory was 1.1727 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.57% [4]. 3.3 Market News - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [5]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons. PT Weda Bay Nickel's production and sales quota has been cut by 70% compared with 2025 [6][8]. - Philippine miners said on February 12 that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [7]. - A landslide occurred in a tailings area of the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia on February 18, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [7]. - Sherritt International Corporation has scaled back the operations of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [7]. - The Indonesian forest area management working group has imposed sanctions on four nickel mining companies in North Maluku Province [8]. 3.4 Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes of Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices of various products in the industrial chain such as electrolytic nickel, ferronickel, red clay nickel ore, stainless steel, and nickel sulfate [10].

Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices experienced a rapid decline at the end of January and early February, with LME nickel dropping to around 16,500 and Shanghai nickel falling to approximately 130,000, but have since stabilized and recovered more than half of the losses [3][17]. Group 2: Nickel Ore Supply Dynamics - Indonesia is set to reduce nickel ore quotas, with approximately 260-270 million tons approved for mining by 2026, slightly above market expectations but significantly below the 2025 target of 379 million tons [4][18]. - The world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay, is expected to see a substantial reduction in production quotas, with the approved ore production quota for this year at 12 million tons, far below the 42 million tons target for 2025 [4][18]. - Nickel Industries' Hengjaya mine has had its sales quota for 2026 significantly increased from 9 million wet tons to 14.3 million wet tons [4][18]. Group 3: Nickel Iron Production and Pricing - In January, nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia totaled 165,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [7][21]. - The domestic high nickel pig iron price remains stable to slightly strong, with prices around 1,035-1,060 CNY per nickel, while Indonesian nickel pig iron FOB prices are stable at 133 USD per nickel [7][21]. Group 4: Refined Nickel Supply Situation - In January, domestic refined nickel production in China was 35,225 tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year, with high inventories putting pressure on nickel prices [9][23]. - The total nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a new high of 58,775 tons as of February 13, indicating a generally oversupplied market [9][23]. Group 5: Demand Recovery Outlook - In January, domestic production of 300 series stainless steel was 1.8581 million tons, a 6.3% increase month-on-month and an 18.6% increase year-on-year, but February production is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival [11][25]. - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has stabilized after a decline, with a recent price of 32,175 CNY per ton, while the production of downstream precursor plants has not yet resumed [11][25]. Group 6: Summary of Market Conditions - The overall market sentiment for precious metals and non-ferrous metals is warming, which may support a rebound in nickel prices, although a strong dollar may exert some pressure [13][27]. - The geopolitical landscape and the ongoing supply chain disruptions are likely to maintain the strategic value of key raw materials, with short-term nickel ore supply appearing slightly tight [13][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, there is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradictions in nickel ore [1] - For stainless steel, the cost - support center has shifted upward, and inventory accumulation during the off - season restricts its elasticity [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract is 137,950, with a change of 2,760 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract is 14,085, with a change of 225 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract is 133,057, a decrease of 246,471 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless steel's main contract is 126,039, a decrease of 97,844 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 137,900, with a change of 2,400 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,054, with a change of 2 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,200, with a change of 100 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1] - Indonesia will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2] - Some Indonesian mines may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final fine may be lower [2] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [3] - Indonesia's ESDM has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [3] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [3] - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons [4] - Philippine miners say the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [4] - A landslide occurred in the tailings area of the IMIP park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the information game between Indonesia and the Philippines [1]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 139,610, with a change compared to T - 1 of 250, T - 5 of 5,180, T - 10 of - 7,860, T - 22 of 1,160, and T - 66 of 20,900 [1]. - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,970, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 70, T - 5 of 160, T - 10 of - 615, T - 22 of 180, and T - 66 of 1,545 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 433,838, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 84,787, T - 5 of - 148,686, T - 10 of - 349,437, T - 22 of - 843,852, and T - 66 of 335,590 [1]. - The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 220,012, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 43,037, T - 5 of - 110,145, T - 10 of - 228,480, T - 22 of - 127,542, and T - 66 of 80,309 [1]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 140,750, with a change compared to T - 1 of 3,000, T - 5 of 5,550, T - 10 of - 3,900, T - 22 of - 250, and T - 66 of 21,750 [1]. - The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,052, with a change compared to T - 1 of 9, T - 5 of 14, T - 10 of - 3, T - 22 of 71, and T - 66 of 143 [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of 0, T - 10 of - 300, T - 22 of 200, and T - 66 of 1,275 [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of - 300, T - 10 of - 1,450, T - 22 of - 900, and T - 66 of 3,505 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [2]. - Some Indonesian mining companies face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final amount may be lower [2]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [3]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) for some companies [3]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [3]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons, and PT WBN received a preliminary notice to submit an RKAB [4]. - Philippine miners claim that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6].