成本利润：一体化MHP生产电积镍成本111026元/吨，利润9.00%；一体化高冰镍生产电积镍成本124817 元/吨，利润-3.00%；外采硫酸镍生产电积镍成本132971元/吨，利润-5.00%；利润外采MHP生产电积镍 成本135388元/吨，利润-8.50%；外采高冰镍生产电积镍成本132152元/吨，利润-6.30%。 核心观点 市场分析 价格方面：本周沪镍2602合约呈现V型反转后高位震荡格局，价格从12.17万元/吨飙升至13.09万元/吨高 点，随后回调至12.68万元/吨，全周累计上涨约8.2%，创下 8 个月新高后进入多空博弈阶段。现货市场 方面，本周成交清淡，市场观望情绪较浓。SMM1#电解镍本周均价126，870元/吨，环比上周上涨9， 600元/吨；金川镍升水环比上周上涨500元/吨，本周均值7，000元/吨；主流电积镍升水本周区间为-200 至400元/吨区间。 宏观方面：本周，国内流动性宽松预期强化，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展4000亿元MLF操作，释放大量流动性，同时离岸人民币兑美元汇率走强，创下阶段性新高，为国 内商品市场提供流动性支持和情绪提振 ...

不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 2025 年 12 月 26 日 镍：盘面资金博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 125,410 | -2,590 | 11,470 | 9,540 | 9,250 | 3,960 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,990 | -85 | 570 | 490 | 585 | 95 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 650,804 | -444,527 | 553,127 | 543,989 | 534,366 | 543,049 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 249,426 | -115,671 | 114,840 | 86,316 | 37,699 | 78,031 | | | | 1 ...

2025 年 12 月 25 日 镍：盘面资金博弈，追高仍需谨慎 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 128,000 | 4,560 | 14,200 | 10,910 | 12,470 | 7,270 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 13,075 | 170 | 695 | 520 | 740 | 185 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 1,095,331 | 708,345 | 955,735 | 975,312 | 946,797 | 1,042,432 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 365,097 | 101,341 | 174,989 | 202,301 | 160,211 | 179,393 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-24 弱美元继续发酵，沪铜再度带动基本金 属突破上行 有⾊观点：弱美元继续发酵，沪铜再度带动基本⾦属突破上⾏ 交易逻辑：11月美国CPI低于市场预期提振降息预期，美联储新一任候选 人还处于遴选中，不过这并不影响美联储独立性受损及弱美元发酵；12月 10-11日中央经济工作会议召开，定调较为积极，继续"国补"，国内消 费预期有望改善，整体上看，宏观面偏正面。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐 步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏弱，12月初汽车销 售延续放缓，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1-2月排产预计改善，基本 金属现实供需偏宽松，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，弱美元和供应忧 虑的影响再度占据主导，连现实供需偏弱但供应有收缩预期的镍也被大幅 推高，弱消费及供需偏松的现实影响成为次要因素，沪铜再度带动基本金 属突破上行，可继续关注铜铝锡偏多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策 预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝 锡价格走势。 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z ...

镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 1 6 急急急急 | 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 近期受基本面过剩预期强化影响，沪镍盘面快速下探，最低触及111700元/吨，刷新年内低点。现货端跟跌压力同步加大，精炼镍短期减产未改过 剩格局，叠加硫酸镍价格回落、镍板企业转产驱动不足，纯镍12月产量预计环比提升。今年镍价表现在有色金属中尤为疲软，一方面传统领域消 | | | | 费难以带来提振，另一方面镍产能仍有投放预期，中长期来看，"供强需弱"的矛盾逐步累积，镍价重心将进一步下移。 | | 镍矿价格 | 中性 | 截至12月12日，菲 ...

2025年12月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：去库延续但现货成交疲软，区间震荡延续 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注新疆环保进度 | 6 | | 多晶硅：盘面高位震荡 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 115,590 | -280 | -2,200 | -1,490 | -3,120 | -5,0 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 沪镍基本面：预计镍价低位震荡运行。精炼镍边际转向供需双弱格局，耐蚀合金需求承压，前期重心 下移挤压精炼镍利润，不少企业转向硫酸镍生产，精炼镍累库斜率稍有趋缓，这也将精炼镍过剩的压力进 行结构性转向，硫酸镍与盘面溢价回归收敛。不过，总量过剩矛盾与湿法投产预期或仍然拖累镍价。远端 低成本湿法路径供应增加的预期未改，即中间品环节湿法出清火法的长线逻辑或限制上方弹性。不过，仍 需警惕隐性补库预期和印尼消息面风险，低价时的隐性补库有可能导致短线累库预期受到挑战，同时，印 尼消息面的不确定性增加，印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，且印尼能矿部也表示对明年 或可能削减配额，印尼审批配额的量级或下一步动作仍需关注。同时，印尼的资源开采和冶炼端的治理动 作频繁，低位追空需密切关注印尼政策风险。因此，整体而言，精炼镍基本面压力进行了结构性转向，但 总量过剩的现实和预期对镍价上方仍有拖累，但是年底至明年一季度，需要关注隐性补库和印尼消息面的 影响，短线不建议低位追空，考虑中长线 ...

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged, reaching a historical high of over $57 per ounce, coinciding with a significant trading disruption at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) due to a cooling system failure at a data center, leading to speculation about market manipulation to protect market makers from potential losses [6][25][33] Group 1: CME Incident - On November 28, CME announced a trading halt due to a cooling issue at the CyrusOne data center, which lasted for 9 hours and affected various markets including gold, silver, and U.S. Treasury futures, with nominal contract values reaching several hundred million dollars [7][25][29] - The incident disrupted the price discovery process in global derivatives markets, causing significant volatility and widening spreads in gold and silver [7][26] - Analysts noted that the timing of the CME outage, coinciding with a spike in silver prices, led to discussions about potential market manipulation to protect exposed market makers [8][26] Group 2: Market Maker Risks - Market makers, who provide liquidity, faced extreme risks during the silver price surge due to their reliance on real-time hedging, which became ineffective in a rapidly moving market [9][27] - The concentration of short positions among market makers during a one-sided market led to significant losses as they accumulated large amounts of losing positions [10][28] - The volatility index for silver options surged by 12.74% on November 28, indicating heightened market uncertainty and increased demand for hedging [10][29] Group 3: Historical Context - The speculation surrounding CME's actions is reminiscent of past incidents where exchanges intervened during extreme market conditions, such as the nickel trading halt by the London Metal Exchange (LME) in March 2022 [12][31] - Historical events involving silver, such as the Hunt brothers' market manipulation in the 1970s, highlight the potential for liquidity crises in commodity markets [12][32] Group 4: Future Outlook - The recent surge in silver prices, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100%, raises questions about whether this trend will continue or if it marks a turning point [15][33] - Analysts suggest that the tightness in silver supply and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties may support prices, but caution against potential volatility due to speculative profit-taking [16][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are under pressure and oscillating at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 115,530, up 1,480 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless - steel's main contract is 12,335, up 45 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 148,534, up 10,331 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless - steel's main contract is 204,886, down 29,038 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Nickel Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 116,000, up 1,000 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 889, down 2 compared to T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,000, down 80 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [1] - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [2] - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted if the companies submit a claim plan and place the claim guarantee by 2025 [2][3] - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order. The approval plan for the next year's mine RKAB is expected to be passed by November 15. If the approval result is not notified through the online system, it will be automatically approved on November 15 [3] - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for projects producing "restricted products" through the OSS platform [4] - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel wet - process projects will reduce production loads to clean up tailings slag ponds, affecting about 6,000 nickel metal tons of production in December [4] - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are under pressure and fluctuating at a low level, with the nickel market also affected by various factors such as policy changes and production adjustments in Indonesia [1]. - The trend intensity for nickel is +1, and for stainless steel is also +1, indicating a moderately bullish outlook [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 114,050, down 1,330 compared to the previous day; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,290, up 1 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 138,203, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 233,924 [1]. - **Nickel - related Product Prices**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 115,000, down 1,600 compared to the previous day; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 891, down 4 compared to the previous day [1]. - **Stainless Steel Product Prices**: The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 12,675, up 200 compared to the previous day; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu was 13,250, unchanged compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesia's Nickel Mining Policy**: The Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 nickel metal tons per month. The Indonesian government also imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the issuance of new smelting licenses for some nickel - related products has been suspended [1][2][4]. - **International Trade Policy**: China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Trump may impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software" [2][3]. - **Production Adjustment**: Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesian industrial parks will reduce production in December, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons of output [4]. - **Monetary Policy**: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [4].