2026 年 3 月 1 日 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 行情观点： 沪镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性。印尼目前并行配额审批、违规开采罚款、环境治理等 多方面资源管理动作，盘面投机属性主导，持仓量高位仍在增加，盘面体现为"预期定方向，现实定弹 性"。虽然现实面镍仍然是高库存累库，或限制镍价的弹性，但是在边际上，矿端紧缺矛盾的预期逐步照 进现实，基于配额供应担忧，以及印尼季节性斋月，叠加菲律宾雨季难以回补，矿端偏紧的现实在 3 月难 有明显缓和，目前印尼镍矿明显上涨，1.6%品位镍矿总价 2 月同比/环比+23/+14 美金至 68 美金，个别成 交或更高，传导至一体化火法现金成本抬升至 13 万元/吨。在估值角度来看，若矿端矛盾在二季度至年中 降温，或出现年中至三季度湿法投产进度取代火法边际成本的逻辑，不过，短线边际成本仍然是一体化火 法路径，而且在 3 月印尼补充配额和菲律宾供应释放故事无法确定的阶段，交易面仍然是以现实矿端矛盾 为主，而且边际成本上移或增加区 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月底2月初，镍价跟随贵金属和有色整体出现快速回调，LME镍最低至16500附近，沪镍则跌至13万附 近，随后便企稳震荡，目前已收复一半以上跌幅。 短期镍矿供应略偏紧 印尼将缩减镍矿配额的消息还在持续发酵，据悉，印尼当前已为2026年批准了约2.6亿-2.7亿镍矿开采配 额，略高于之前市场预估，但远低于2025年目标3.79亿吨。全球最大镍矿韦达湾预计将遭印尼政府大幅 缩减产量配额，今年获批矿石产量配额为1200万吨，远低于2025年的4200万吨，也低于2024年初批复的 基础配额1600万吨；不过，年初配额可在年中调整，最终产量存在弹性。同时，Nickel Industries旗下 Hengjaya矿山已获批2026年镍矿RKAB销售配额，总量由之前的900万湿吨显著提升至1430万湿吨。 据Mysteel，节后菲律宾和印尼镍矿价格稍有分歧，印尼2月下半月HPM基准价已按新HMA调整，各品 位价格小幅下跌约0.2-0.3美元/湿吨，升水暂维持节前水平，目前正值斋月，政府审批及矿山作业效率 放缓，供应难有明显增量；菲律宾方面，矿山持续少量出货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, there is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradictions in nickel ore [1] - For stainless steel, the cost - support center has shifted upward, and inventory accumulation during the off - season restricts its elasticity [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract is 137,950, with a change of 2,760 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract is 14,085, with a change of 225 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract is 133,057, a decrease of 246,471 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless steel's main contract is 126,039, a decrease of 97,844 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 137,900, with a change of 2,400 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,054, with a change of 2 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,200, with a change of 100 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1] - Indonesia will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2] - Some Indonesian mines may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final fine may be lower [2] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [3] - Indonesia's ESDM has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [3] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [3] - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons [4] - Philippine miners say the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [4] - A landslide occurred in the tailings area of the IMIP park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the information game between Indonesia and the Philippines [1]. - For stainless steel, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 139,610, with a change compared to T - 1 of 250, T - 5 of 5,180, T - 10 of - 7,860, T - 22 of 1,160, and T - 66 of 20,900 [1]. - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,970, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 70, T - 5 of 160, T - 10 of - 615, T - 22 of 180, and T - 66 of 1,545 [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 433,838, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 84,787, T - 5 of - 148,686, T - 10 of - 349,437, T - 22 of - 843,852, and T - 66 of 335,590 [1]. - The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 220,012, with a change compared to T - 1 of - 43,037, T - 5 of - 110,145, T - 10 of - 228,480, T - 22 of - 127,542, and T - 66 of 80,309 [1]. - **Industry Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 140,750, with a change compared to T - 1 of 3,000, T - 5 of 5,550, T - 10 of - 3,900, T - 22 of - 250, and T - 66 of 21,750 [1]. - The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,052, with a change compared to T - 1 of 9, T - 5 of 14, T - 10 of - 3, T - 22 of 71, and T - 66 of 143 [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of 0, T - 10 of - 300, T - 22 of 200, and T - 66 of 1,275 [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, with a change compared to T - 1 of 0, T - 5 of - 300, T - 10 of - 1,450, T - 22 of - 900, and T - 66 of 3,505 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [2]. - Some Indonesian mining companies face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final amount may be lower [2]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [3]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) for some companies [3]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [3]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons, and PT WBN received a preliminary notice to submit an RKAB [4]. - Philippine miners claim that the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6].

镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 4 拐拐拐拐 | 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 周内镍价主要跟随宏观情绪指引，贵金属及有色板块带领盘面大幅回调，关注资金动向及盘面企稳信号。供应端，菲律宾及印尼主产区正值雨季 | | | | ，镍矿发运持续受阻，矿价支撑较强。此外，镍矿配额发放节奏仍对镍价形成阶段性扰动，然而镍自身基本面维持弱势，累库趋势未出现拐点， 当前盘面多空博弈加剧，短期或难走出趋势性行情。 | | 镍矿价格 | 偏多 | 截至2月2日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周分别+0、+0.5、+0 ...

2026 年 2 月 5 日 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）印度尼西亚政府已通过OSS平台暂停发放新的冶炼许可证。这项限制措施特别针对计划生产Nickel matte、混合氢氧化物沉淀物（"MHP"）、铁镍（"FeNi"）和镍生铁（"NPI"）的项目——这些产品统称为 "受限制产品"。 2）新华社 12 月 12 日从商务部获悉，商务部、海关总署日前印发公告，决定对部分钢铁产品实施出口 许可证管理。公告自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起执行。 3）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core game of nickel and stainless steel lies in Indonesia's nickel policies, with events such as quota adjustments, inclusion of associated minerals in pricing, fines for illegal land use, and suspension of mining operations affecting the market [1]. - For Shanghai nickel, there is a contradiction between high - inventory and marginal inventory accumulation, and an increase in supply elasticity after profit repair. The market has different expectations for Indonesia's nickel ore policies, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely due to the confrontation between hedging and speculative funds. It is recommended to consider options and pay attention to structural opportunities [3][4]. - For stainless steel, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand with off - season inventory accumulation. Cost logic supports the bottom of the price range, but the consumption side lacks upward drive. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and the breakthrough in direction depends on the dynamics of Indonesia's quota policies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Indonesia's Nickel Policy Events - **Quota Event**: Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry may adjust the nickel ore quota to 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. If the target quota is implemented, it may turn the oversupply expectation into a shortage and impact high inventories. There is a divergence in expectations between the secondary market and the industry [1]. - **Associated Minerals Event**: Indonesia wants to include associated minerals like cobalt in the pricing and taxation system, which may increase the ore - purchasing cost of the smelting end by about 5% - 10%. However, if the cost can be passed on, the impact on nickel cost will be limited [1]. - **Conflict Event**: Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal land occupation. The fine negotiation process and monopoly issues in the IMIP port may increase market concerns about resource supply [2]. - **Other Events**: Vale suspended its nickel - mining business at the beginning of 2026 but later resumed normal operations. It is speculated that Indonesia may favor leading enterprises and wet - process projects [2]. Market Quotes - **Shanghai Nickel**: Overseas news is emerging one after another, and there is a game between hedging and speculative positions. The price is affected by factors such as high inventory, profit - driven supply increase, and differences in policy expectations. It is recommended to use options for trading and pay attention to structural opportunities [3][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: It faces pressure from off - season inventory accumulation and weak supply - demand fundamentals. Cost logic supports the price, but the consumption side is weak. The price may fluctuate in the short term, waiting for policy - driven breakthroughs [5]. Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On January 30, China's social inventory increased by 6,622 tons to 69,238 tons, with an increase rate of 10.58%. LME nickel inventory increased by 2,556 tons to 286,284 tons [6]. - **New Energy**: On January 30, the inventory days of SMM's upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of nickel sulfate were 5, 9, and 7 days respectively, with a month - on - month change of +0, +2, and +0 days. The precursor inventory increased by 0.1 days to 13.1 days, and the ternary material inventory increased by 0.1 days to 7.0 days [6]. - **Nickel - Iron and Stainless Steel**: On January 29, the SMM's full - industry chain inventory of nickel - iron decreased by 10% month - on - month to 121,000 metal tons. In December, the SMM's stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.48 million tons, with a year - on - month/ month - on - month change of +1%/ - 7%. On January 29, the social inventory of stainless steel was 952,674 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.37% [6]. Market News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain products through the OSS platform [7]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have implemented export license management for some steel products since January 1, 2026 [7]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity for royalty collection [7]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [8]. - Multiple companies in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal land occupation, and the final fine amount may be lower than the initial estimate [8]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Minister said that the 2026 nickel production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the production may be around 250 - 260 million tons [8]. - The IMIP park in Indonesia is facing a monopoly investigation in port storage and logistics, but ship transportation is currently normal [8]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [9]. - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has started approving the 2026 mining work plans and budgets [9]. - Solvay Investment Group plans to restart its nickel - mining business in Guatemala in a few months [9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of Shanghai nickel, stainless steel, and related products, as well as price differentials and profit margins [11]. Graphs - The report includes a series of graphs showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless steel, and related products over different time periods [12][14][15][17][18][20][22][24].

Core Insights - Leshan is experiencing a surge in both consumer market activity and industrial project momentum, aiming for a strong start to the year [4] Economic Development Plans - In the first quarter, Leshan plans to add over 10 large-scale industrial enterprises, complete industrial investments exceeding 7.6 billion yuan, and sign more than 15 manufacturing projects with a total expected value surpassing 20 billion yuan [11] - For the entire year, Leshan aims to implement 300 key projects with a total investment of approximately 650 billion yuan, covering infrastructure, industrial development, social welfare, and ecological construction across 15 major sectors [11] Tourism and Consumption - Leshan's tourism industry is a significant driver of local consumption, with expectations to receive over 120 million visitors and generate over 160 billion yuan in tourism revenue by 2025 [5] - The city has organized over 120 consumer promotion events annually, distributing nearly 100 million yuan in consumer vouchers, which have directly stimulated consumption by over 1 billion yuan [6] Industrial Growth and Projects - The production capacity of Sichuan Chengfa Paper Machinery Co., Ltd. is projected to reach 360 million yuan in 2025, with orders for 2026 already scheduled, expecting to exceed 400 million yuan [9] - Sichuan Gangchen Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. anticipates a production value exceeding 3.5 billion yuan this year due to the introduction of new cold-rolling technology [9] - In Q1, Wutongqiao District aims for double-digit growth in fixed asset investment, with plans for multiple projects totaling 6.9 billion yuan [10]

Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are experiencing a rebound influenced by Indonesian policies and a collective rise in non-ferrous and precious metals, with the Shanghai nickel contract showing a V-shaped reversal and high volatility [2][11] - The market is currently in a phase of supply-demand dynamics, with a cautious sentiment prevailing among traders [2][11] Market Analysis - Price Movement: The Shanghai nickel contract rose from 121,700 CNY/ton to a peak of 130,900 CNY/ton, followed by a pullback to 126,800 CNY/ton, resulting in an approximate weekly increase of 8.2%, marking an 8-month high [2][11] - Spot Market: The average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 126,870 CNY/ton, up 9,600 CNY/ton from the previous week, while the average premium for Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 CNY/ton to 7,000 CNY/ton [2][11] - Macro Environment: The People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion CNY MLF operation, enhancing liquidity expectations, while the offshore RMB strengthened against the USD, providing support for the domestic commodity market [2][11] Supply and Demand - Supply: Indonesia's APNI announced a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026 from 379 million tons to 250 million tons, a decrease of 34%, leading to an expected supply gap of 30-40 million tons [3][12] - Demand: Stainless steel production remains high in December, and the recovery in new energy vehicle production contributes to stable demand for ternary batteries [3][12] Cost and Profit - Production Costs: Integrated MHP production of electrolytic nickel has a cost of 111,026 CNY/ton with a profit margin of 9.00%, while other production methods show negative profit margins [4][12] - Inventory Levels: Shanghai nickel inventory decreased from 45,280 tons to 44,454 tons, while LME nickel inventory increased slightly from 253,998 tons to 255,696 tons [4][12] Strategy - The rebound in nickel prices is driven by Indonesian policy changes and the rise in non-ferrous metals, but high inventory levels and a weak end-user demand suggest limited upward momentum [5][13] - Short-term trading strategies are recommended within the 123,000-130,000 CNY range for high sell-low buy opportunities [5][13] Stainless Steel Market - Price Movement: The main stainless steel contract showed a passive rise, reaching a peak of 13,105 CNY/ton before closing at 12,955 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.85% [6][14] - Supply and Demand: December's stainless steel crude steel production is expected to decline, particularly in the 200 and 400 series, while downstream demand remains weak [7][15] - Inventory: The total stainless steel inventory in major markets decreased by 3.55% week-on-week, indicating a trend of destocking [7][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are experiencing wide - range fluctuations due to capital games in the market [1] - The stainless - steel market has weak supply and demand fundamentals, and is being affected by news about Indonesian nickel mines [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 125,410, down 2,590 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,990, down 85 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 650,804, a decrease of 444,527 from T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 249,426, a decrease of 115,671 from T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 124,150, down 3,050 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 899, up 6 from T - 1. In the stainless - steel sector, the price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,050, unchanged from T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Nickel Mine News**: The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over a more than 148 - hectare nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons per month. The Indonesian government will sanction 190 mining companies due to non - compliance with regulations. The Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026 and may reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [2][5][6] - **Other News**: China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. The New York Fed President and a Fed governor made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December. China will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [3][5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [6]