Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250918: Rate Cut Implemented, Upward Drive Insufficient [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - On September 17, 2025, Shanghai nickel futures' closing prices declined, with the active contract's closing price at 121,790 yuan/ton (-820), trading volume at 90,734 lots (-13,858), and open interest at 58,829 lots (-7,709) [2] - LME 3 - month nickel's closing price was $15,250 (-165), trading volume was 6,290 lots ( + 1,202), and the price ratio of Shanghai - LME nickel futures was 7.89 (-0.05) [2] Stainless Steel Futures - On September 17, 2025, Shanghai stainless steel futures' closing prices were mostly down, with the active contract's closing price at 12,840 yuan/ton (-12), trading volume at 170,126 lots (-60,650), and open interest at 127,750 lots (-3,036) [2] Spot Market - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 122,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of 990 yuan/ton compared to the active futures contract [2] - The average price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) was 13,850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 915 yuan/ton compared to the active futures contract [2] Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory decreased by 26 tons to 26,167 tons; LME nickel inventory increased by 2,034 tons to 228,468 tons [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory decreased by 480 tons to 95,265 tons [2] Group 3: Industry News - Nickel 28 Capital Corp's Q2 2025 production report showed that the Ramu nickel - cobalt project in Papua New Guinea produced 8,564 tons of MHP nickel metal ( + 22.87% YoY) and 787 tons of cobalt metal, with MHP nickel sales volume at 7,846 tons ( + 27.93% YoY) and cobalt sales volume at 719 tons [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Nickel Market - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories increased; nickel - iron mills' losses narrowed, September's domestic production schedule increased, Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron inventory decreased; September's domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded [2] - **Demand**: Ternary production decreased; stainless steel mills' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2] - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory increased, and bonded area inventory decreased [2] - **Outlook**: After the Fed's rate cut, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] Stainless Steel Market - **Supply**: September's stainless steel production schedule increased [2] - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [2] - **Cost**: High - nickel pig iron prices and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [2] - **Outlook**: Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost side provides support, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 5: Trading Strategies - For nickel, the strategy is to short on rallies [2] - For stainless steel, the suggestion is to wait and see [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [2] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed weak intraday oscillations, with the overall non - ferrous metals market relatively soft and no significant changes in the fundamentals [4]. - There are still supports in the new energy sector. The nickel salt supply is tight, and price increases are frequent, expected to remain strong. The nickel - iron price is firm, but high - price transactions have declined [4]. - The stainless steel futures price once fell below 12,900, and the spot market offered discounts. There was some improvement in transactions, but the fundamental momentum is currently calming down, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - level trends [4]. - Although the takeover of a small part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine has limited impact on actual production, it has raised concerns about the nickel ore supply [4][6]. - The news of Antam and CATL promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia supports the long - term demand for nickel in the new energy field [6] Key Points by Category Price Forecast - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.61% and a historical percentile of 1.1% [3] Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Data Nickel Futures - The closing price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 121,990 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 122,180 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 122,370 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The LME nickel 3M price is 15,445 US dollars/ton, down 0.63% [8] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing price of stainless steel main - continuous contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - one contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - two contract is 12,985 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - three contract is 13,060 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [11] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons [12]. - LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, an increase of 2,034 tons [12]. - Stainless steel social inventory is 902,600 tons, a decrease of 16,100 tons [13]. - Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [13] News and Event Analysis Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula by adding elements such as iron and cobalt [7]. - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [7]. - Stainless steel inventories have decreased for several consecutive weeks [7]. - The takeover of part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine by the Indonesian forestry working group [7]. - CATL and Antam promote the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia [7][6] Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventories [7]. - Sino - US tariff disturbances [7]. - Uncertainty in the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased [7]. - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented [7]. - Relatively weak stainless steel spot transactions [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bearish trend of nickel fundamentals remains unchanged. Affected by events in major producing countries, recent market fluctuations have increased. The unrest mainly occurred in the capital area of Indonesia and was short - lived, causing no substantial impact on nickel supply. In the short term, the contradiction in refined nickel is not prominent. Based on repeated macro - expectations, nickel prices are likely to fluctuate widely [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Market Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai Nickel main contract 2510 opened at 119,550 yuan/ton, closed at 121,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 122,690 yuan/ton and a low of 119,530 yuan/ton, up 1.75% for the week. As of September 1, the electrolytic nickel spot price increased by 3,050 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 2.52% increase [8][11]. - **Supply and Demand Factors** - **Nickel Ore**: As of September 1, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. As of August 29, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were flat at 24.5 and 52.2 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang increased by 0.5 US dollars to 12.5 and 11.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively [28]. - **Refined Nickel**: As of August 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.24 million tons to 3.52 million tons month - on - month, a 7.32% increase and a 20.55% increase year - on - year. As of September 1, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 519 tons to 21,800 tons week - on - week, a 2.33% decrease. LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 696 tons to 209,800 tons week - on - week, a 0.33% increase. Last week, the social inventory of pure nickel (including the Shanghai Futures Exchange) decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,500 tons week - on - week, a 3.43% decrease [38][40]. - **Nickel Iron**: As of August 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) increased by 0.08 million tons to 2.53 million tons month - on - month, a 3.02% increase. As of September 1, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 12.5 yuan/nickel point to 943 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 1.34% increase [67][23]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: As of July 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 17.3% increase. As of September 1, the average price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 160 yuan/ton to 27,800 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.58% increase [52][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of September 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production is estimated to increase by 3.74% to 3.4021 million tons month - on - month. As of August 29, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.88 million tons to 1.083 million tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [81][84]. Monthly Balance Sheet - From January to December 2025, the total nickel production ranges from 8.2 to 9.0 million tons, imports from 9.8 to 12.5 million tons, exports from 1.3 to 2.2 million tons, and total consumption from 17.3 to 19.2 million tons. There are periods of surplus and shortage, with supply and consumption showing different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [4].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report of Guotai Junan Futures on September 1, 2025, focusing on green finance and new energy commodities including nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1]. Group 1: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range based on fundamental logic, with investors warned of potential risks from news. Stainless steel prices are also expected to move in a narrow range [2][4]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,700 yuan, up 710 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,815 yuan, down 35 yuan [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage; environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 RKAB production in Indonesia is higher than 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were suspended due to losses; Indonesian mining companies must resubmit 2026 RKAB; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance; and Indonesia will crack down on illegal mining [4][5][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The basis of lithium carbonate remains stable, and the range - bound oscillation continues [2][10]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 77,000 yuan, down 1,140 yuan from the previous trading day. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 79,628 yuan/ton, down 314 yuan/ton [10][11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Chilean government is accelerating a major lithium cooperation deal between Codelco and SQM [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [12]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - For industrial silicon, the strategy is to short at high prices. For polysilicon, investors should pay attention to market information [2][13][14]. Key Points - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from the previous trading day. The closing price of the PS2511 contract for polysilicon was 49,555 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US International Trade Court ruled that the Biden administration's "Southeast Asian solar cell and component import tariff suspension order" was illegal, and retroactive tariffs may be imposed on solar products imported from four Southeast Asian countries [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 26, the main nickel contract oscillated within a range, with weak spot - market trading, an expanding basis premium. The supply side saw stable nickel ore prices, increased nickel ore arrivals last week, and tight port inventories. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, with domestic production scheduled to decline in August and Indonesian production to increase, leading to nickel - iron accumulation. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary material production, stainless - steel plant production schedules, and alloy and electroplating demands all increased. In terms of inventory, there were decreases in SHFE, LME, and social inventories, while the bonded - area inventory remained flat. Overall, the pure nickel fundamentals were loose, and with the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations fluctuating, nickel prices were expected to oscillate within a range. It was recommended to wait and see [1] - For stainless steel, on August 26, the main stainless - steel contract oscillated within a range, with weak spot - market trading and an expanding basis premium. Inventory decreased in SHFE, and the 300 - series social inventory increased last week. Supply increased in August, while terminal demand was weak. On the cost side, high - ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose. Currently, macro - sentiment had a greater impact. Although the fundamentals were loose, it would take time for prices to return to fundamentals, and there was cost support. Therefore, prices were expected to fluctuate with the macro - situation. It was recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: On August 26, the closing prices of SHFE nickel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 120180, 120310, 120720, and 120780 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 88775 hands (- 30404), and the open interest was 109267 hands (- 1070). The LME 3 - month nickel price rose 1.23%. The trading volume of LME 3 - month nickel was 7965 hands [1] - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 121450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 122750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 120350 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat, with increased arrivals last week and tight port inventories. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, with domestic production scheduled to decline in August and Indonesian production to increase. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits expanded [1] - **Demand**: Ternary material production increased; stainless - steel plant production schedules increased; alloy and electroplating demands were stable [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE, LME, and social inventories decreased, while the bonded - area inventory remained flat [1] Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: On August 26, the closing prices of stainless - steel's near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12755, 12840, 12940, and 12965 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume was 102727 hands (- 53612), and the open interest was 133659 hands (- 8340) [1] - **Spot Market**: Spot - market trading was weak, and the basis premium expanded [1] - **Supply**: Stainless - steel production schedules increased in August [1] - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1] - **Cost**: High - ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased, and last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 62600 tons (+ 8500) [1] Company News - Eramet's Indonesian subsidiary plans to produce 42 million tons of nickel ore this year, including about 27 million tons of laterite nickel ore mainly for nickel - iron smelters, 3 million tons for its own NPI plant, and 12 million tons of low - grade nickel ore (nickel pyrite) for HPAL projects. This target output is expected to continue for the next year, and the Weida Bay nickel ore reserves can support 22 years of mining, with room to further increase production capacity [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Nickel is expected to operate in a low - level oscillatory pattern [1]. - Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and realities [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 119,830, down 100 from T - 1; the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract was 12,795, down 25 from T - 1. The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 90,715, an increase of 27,039 from T - 1; the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract was 99,736, a decrease of 50,000 from T - 1 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 120,250, up 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 928, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,050, unchanged from T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 13,700, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per single line [3]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, and the ministry may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the whole park [3][4]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance [4]. - The approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [4][5]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [5]. - A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to the 5% annual production reduction target, suspending the delivery of long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. - The Indonesian President stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [6]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral view [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and nickel prices fluctuate within a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The influence of macro factors fades, and the price returns to the fundamentals, with steel prices oscillating at a low level [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, and the price moves in a volatile manner [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: It is in a weak pattern [2][13]. - Polysilicon: The short - term sentiment cools down, and attention should be paid to news stimuli [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,630, and the stainless - steel main contract is 12,925. There are also detailed data on trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain, and profit margins [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project enters the trial - production stage; environmental violations are found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan in 2025 is higher than that in 2024; some production lines in an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park are suspended [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract is 68,920, and there are data on trading volume, positions, warehouse receipts, and prices and profits of related products in the industrial chain [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rises; an Australian lithium - ore auction ends; a lithium - battery material project in Jiangxi is approved [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2509 is 8,360, and PS2509 is 48,720. There are also data on trading volume, positions, price differences, spot premiums and discounts, and profits of related products in the industrial chain [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Liaoning releases the assessment results of distributed photovoltaic grid - connection capacity [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is 0 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for nickel is neutral to bearish, while for tin, no specific investment rating is provided in the report [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the supply of nickel ore gradually increases and the smelting capacity is abundant, the inventory of refined nickel at home and abroad has been accumulating, and the actual demand is not optimistic. Although the trading expectation of the anti - involution policy has not cooled down, the nickel price trend is increasingly deviating from the fundamentals, and there is still upward pressure [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Market Performance**: - As of July 21, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content were flat at $30, $58.5, and $80.5 per wet ton respectively compared to last week. The domestic trade nickel ore prices in Indonesia with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% were flat at $25 and $52.2 per wet ton respectively as of July 18 [3]. - The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang were flat at $12.5 and $11.5 per wet ton respectively last week [3]. - The electrolytic nickel export profit and loss decreased by $6.65 per ton to $45.4 per ton last week, a decrease of 12.8% [3]. - As of July 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by $2 per nickel point to $901.5 per nickel point, a decrease of 0.22% [3]. - As of July 18, the LME nickel price increased by $10 per ton to $15,245 per ton, an increase of 0.07%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by $7.81 per ton to - $194.43 per ton [21]. - As of July 18, the electrolytic nickel spot price decreased by $650 per ton to $121,500 per ton, a decrease of 0.53% [15]. - As of July 18, the Jinchuan nickel price decreased by $700 per ton to $122,450 per ton, a decrease of 0.57%, and the Jinchuan nickel premium was flat at $2,000 per ton [16]. - Last week, the imported nickel price decreased by $700 per ton to $120,800 per ton, a decrease of 0.58%, and the imported nickel premium was flat at $350 per ton [16]. - **Production and Inventory**: - As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.22 million tons, an increase of 1.26% [3][43]. - As of July 21, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 815 tons to 22,100 tons, an increase of 3.83%. The LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 0.13 million tons to 207,900 tons, an increase of 0.63% [47]. - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1,165 tons to 40,400 tons, an increase of 2.89% [3][47]. - As of July 18, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 7.15 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.69% [32]. - According to customs data, in June 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million tons, an increase of 10.68% month - on - month and a decrease of 9.21% year - on - year. As of June 2025, the cumulative national nickel ore import volume was 14.7812 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 8.36% year - on - year [32]. - **Related Products**: - As of July 21, the MHP FOB price decreased by $132 per ton to $12,347 per ton, a decrease of 1.06%; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by $90 per ton to $12,928 per ton, a decrease of 0.69% [38]. - As of July 2025, the Indonesian MHP production increased by 0.07 million tons to 3.87 million tons, an increase of 1.84%; the high - grade nickel matte production increased by 0.08 million tons to 1.35 million tons, an increase of 6.30% [38]. - As of June 2025, the MHP monthly import volume was 1.282 million tons, a decrease of 10.21% month - on - month; the high - grade nickel matte monthly import volume was 225,000 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [38]. Tin - The tin monthly balance sheet shows the production, import, export, consumption, and surplus of tin from January to December 2025. The supply and consumption have different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes each month [4]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - As of June 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 0.12 million tons to 2.48 million nickel tons, a decrease of 4.69%. Most manufacturers produce according to sales, and the overall production of sulfuric acid nickel is weak this year, with no expectation of resuming production for previously reduced or shut - down manufacturers [58]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel import volume was 1.33 million tons, a decrease of 27.35% month - on - month and a decrease of 10.01% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 782.1 tons, an increase of 3.66% month - on - month and a decrease of 41.02% year - on - year [58]. - As of July 22, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased to - 2.6%, - 4%, 1.1%, and - 4.1% respectively compared to last week. Most manufacturers using externally purchased raw materials are in losses [65]. Ferronickel - As of June 2025, the national ferronickel production (metal content) decreased by 0.16 thousand tons to 25.64 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.59%. The Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 0.46 million tons to 13.68 million tons, a decrease of 3.26%. Some Indonesian iron plants have reduced production, and a small number of manufacturers have switched to producing nickel matte [3][74]. - As of July 15, the ferronickel inventory in major domestic regions decreased by 0.43 million tons to 33,200 nickel tons (average grade 11.79%), a decrease of 11.46% [80]. Stainless Steel - As of June 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 17.13 million tons to 329.16 million tons, a decrease of 4.95%. The 300 - series production decreased by 4.07 million tons to 174.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.28% [91]. - As of July 18, the stainless - steel market inventory decreased by 1.97 million tons to 114.78 million tons, a decrease of 1.69%. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 0.74 million tons to 68.75 million tons, a decrease of 1.06% [87]. - As of July 22, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.75 million tons to 10.35 million tons, a decrease of 6.77% [87]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly stainless - steel import volume was 10.95 million tons, a decrease of 12.48% month - on - month and a decrease of 16.61% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 39.0 million tons, a decrease of 10.63% month - on - month and a decrease of 13.51% year - on - year [91]. - As of July 22, the production cash cost of Chinese cold - rolled 304 stainless steel decreased by $126 per ton to $13,141 per ton, a decrease of 0.92%. The cold - rolled stainless - steel coil profit margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to - 4.88% [96].

Core Viewpoint - China has shifted from a passive defensive strategy in international trade to an active offensive approach, responding decisively to unfair treatment and trade pressures from multiple countries [1][3][22]. Trade Measures - On July 1, China announced anti-dumping duties on stainless steel products imported from 30 countries, including the EU, Indonesia, and South Korea [4][5]. - The move is seen as a direct response to previous trade actions against China, such as the EU's imposition of a 13.2% anti-dumping duty on Chinese tinplate products [5][15]. Strategic Implications - The decision to impose tariffs on multiple countries simultaneously signals a significant change in China's role in international trade, indicating a transition to a more assertive stance [3][22]. - China is leveraging its strong industrial base in stainless steel production, which accounts for a substantial portion of the global market, to enhance domestic competitiveness [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The tariffs are designed to apply differentiated rates, particularly targeting South Korean companies, which may face punitive tariffs as high as 103.1%, while leaving some room for cooperation [18]. - Countries like Indonesia, which rely on their natural resources, are attempting to use their position to gain political leverage, but they may underestimate China's control over critical resources like nickel [10][19]. Global Reactions - The EU and UK are facing significant supply chain risks due to China's actions, prompting a reevaluation of their trade relationships with China [18]. - South Korean companies are experiencing stock declines and are considering relocating operations to mitigate risks associated with China's trade policies [18]. U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. has notably been excluded from the recent tariff list, indicating a potential shift in its approach towards China, as evidenced by recent actions to ease restrictions on exports to China [5][19][21]. - This strategic omission suggests that the U.S. may be seeking to improve relations with China, recognizing the importance of cooperation in the context of global supply chains [19][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly [2][10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [2][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying the fluctuations in the market [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,390, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710. There were various changes in trading volume, prices of related products like 1 imported nickel, and premiums and discounts [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia will continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 production target is higher than that of 2024 [4][5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 64,280, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and other data. There were also changes in spot - futures basis and prices of related lithium products [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a Canadian company plans to build a lithium - carbonate production facility; China's battery exports in June 2025 showed growth in volume and proportion [11][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,415, and the PS2508 contract was 41,330. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products and raw materials [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple photovoltaic EPC projects were terminated due to policy impacts on distributed photovoltaic power stations [14][16]. Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0 - Stainless Steel: 0 - Lithium Carbonate: 0 - Industrial Silicon: 1 - Polysilicon: 0 [4][10][14]