Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Nickel is expected to operate in a low - level oscillatory pattern [1]. - Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between expectations and realities [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 119,830, down 100 from T - 1; the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract was 12,795, down 25 from T - 1. The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 90,715, an increase of 27,039 from T - 1; the trading volume of the main stainless - steel contract was 99,736, a decrease of 50,000 from T - 1 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 120,250, up 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 928, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,050, unchanged from T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 13,700, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produced nickel - iron, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per single line [3]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, and the ministry may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the whole park [3][4]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance [4]. - The approved 2025 production plan and budget (RKAB) output of Indonesian nickel miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [4][5]. - Indonesian mining and coal companies must resubmit the 2026 work plan and budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [5]. - A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to the 5% annual production reduction target, suspending the delivery of long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. - The Indonesian President stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [6]. 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral view [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and nickel prices fluctuate within a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The influence of macro factors fades, and the price returns to the fundamentals, with steel prices oscillating at a low level [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: Warehouse receipts increase significantly, and the price moves in a volatile manner [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: It is in a weak pattern [2][13]. - Polysilicon: The short - term sentiment cools down, and attention should be paid to news stimuli [2][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,630, and the stainless - steel main contract is 12,925. There are also detailed data on trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain, and profit margins [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project enters the trial - production stage; environmental violations are found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan in 2025 is higher than that in 2024; some production lines in an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park are suspended [5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract is 68,920, and there are data on trading volume, positions, warehouse receipts, and prices and profits of related products in the industrial chain [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rises; an Australian lithium - ore auction ends; a lithium - battery material project in Jiangxi is approved [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2509 is 8,360, and PS2509 is 48,720. There are also data on trading volume, positions, price differences, spot premiums and discounts, and profits of related products in the industrial chain [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Liaoning releases the assessment results of distributed photovoltaic grid - connection capacity [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is 0 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for nickel is neutral to bearish, while for tin, no specific investment rating is provided in the report [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the supply of nickel ore gradually increases and the smelting capacity is abundant, the inventory of refined nickel at home and abroad has been accumulating, and the actual demand is not optimistic. Although the trading expectation of the anti - involution policy has not cooled down, the nickel price trend is increasingly deviating from the fundamentals, and there is still upward pressure [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Market Performance**: - As of July 21, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content were flat at $30, $58.5, and $80.5 per wet ton respectively compared to last week. The domestic trade nickel ore prices in Indonesia with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% were flat at $25 and $52.2 per wet ton respectively as of July 18 [3]. - The freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang were flat at $12.5 and $11.5 per wet ton respectively last week [3]. - The electrolytic nickel export profit and loss decreased by $6.65 per ton to $45.4 per ton last week, a decrease of 12.8% [3]. - As of July 21, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by $2 per nickel point to $901.5 per nickel point, a decrease of 0.22% [3]. - As of July 18, the LME nickel price increased by $10 per ton to $15,245 per ton, an increase of 0.07%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by $7.81 per ton to - $194.43 per ton [21]. - As of July 18, the electrolytic nickel spot price decreased by $650 per ton to $121,500 per ton, a decrease of 0.53% [15]. - As of July 18, the Jinchuan nickel price decreased by $700 per ton to $122,450 per ton, a decrease of 0.57%, and the Jinchuan nickel premium was flat at $2,000 per ton [16]. - Last week, the imported nickel price decreased by $700 per ton to $120,800 per ton, a decrease of 0.58%, and the imported nickel premium was flat at $350 per ton [16]. - **Production and Inventory**: - As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.04 million tons to 3.22 million tons, an increase of 1.26% [3][43]. - As of July 21, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 815 tons to 22,100 tons, an increase of 3.83%. The LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 0.13 million tons to 207,900 tons, an increase of 0.63% [47]. - Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1,165 tons to 40,400 tons, an increase of 2.89% [3][47]. - As of July 18, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 7.15 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.69% [32]. - According to customs data, in June 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million tons, an increase of 10.68% month - on - month and a decrease of 9.21% year - on - year. As of June 2025, the cumulative national nickel ore import volume was 14.7812 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 8.36% year - on - year [32]. - **Related Products**: - As of July 21, the MHP FOB price decreased by $132 per ton to $12,347 per ton, a decrease of 1.06%; the high - grade nickel matte FOB price decreased by $90 per ton to $12,928 per ton, a decrease of 0.69% [38]. - As of July 2025, the Indonesian MHP production increased by 0.07 million tons to 3.87 million tons, an increase of 1.84%; the high - grade nickel matte production increased by 0.08 million tons to 1.35 million tons, an increase of 6.30% [38]. - As of June 2025, the MHP monthly import volume was 1.282 million tons, a decrease of 10.21% month - on - month; the high - grade nickel matte monthly import volume was 225,000 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [38]. Tin - The tin monthly balance sheet shows the production, import, export, consumption, and surplus of tin from January to December 2025. The supply and consumption have different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes each month [4]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - As of June 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 0.12 million tons to 2.48 million nickel tons, a decrease of 4.69%. Most manufacturers produce according to sales, and the overall production of sulfuric acid nickel is weak this year, with no expectation of resuming production for previously reduced or shut - down manufacturers [58]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel import volume was 1.33 million tons, a decrease of 27.35% month - on - month and a decrease of 10.01% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 782.1 tons, an increase of 3.66% month - on - month and a decrease of 41.02% year - on - year [58]. - As of July 22, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased to - 2.6%, - 4%, 1.1%, and - 4.1% respectively compared to last week. Most manufacturers using externally purchased raw materials are in losses [65]. Ferronickel - As of June 2025, the national ferronickel production (metal content) decreased by 0.16 thousand tons to 25.64 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.59%. The Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 0.46 million tons to 13.68 million tons, a decrease of 3.26%. Some Indonesian iron plants have reduced production, and a small number of manufacturers have switched to producing nickel matte [3][74]. - As of July 15, the ferronickel inventory in major domestic regions decreased by 0.43 million tons to 33,200 nickel tons (average grade 11.79%), a decrease of 11.46% [80]. Stainless Steel - As of June 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 17.13 million tons to 329.16 million tons, a decrease of 4.95%. The 300 - series production decreased by 4.07 million tons to 174.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.28% [91]. - As of July 18, the stainless - steel market inventory decreased by 1.97 million tons to 114.78 million tons, a decrease of 1.69%. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 0.74 million tons to 68.75 million tons, a decrease of 1.06% [87]. - As of July 22, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.75 million tons to 10.35 million tons, a decrease of 6.77% [87]. - As of June 2025, China's monthly stainless - steel import volume was 10.95 million tons, a decrease of 12.48% month - on - month and a decrease of 16.61% year - on - year; the monthly export volume was 39.0 million tons, a decrease of 10.63% month - on - month and a decrease of 13.51% year - on - year [91]. - As of July 22, the production cash cost of Chinese cold - rolled 304 stainless steel decreased by $126 per ton to $13,141 per ton, a decrease of 0.92%. The cold - rolled stainless - steel coil profit margin increased by 1.6 percentage points to - 4.88% [96].

Core Viewpoint - China has shifted from a passive defensive strategy in international trade to an active offensive approach, responding decisively to unfair treatment and trade pressures from multiple countries [1][3][22]. Trade Measures - On July 1, China announced anti-dumping duties on stainless steel products imported from 30 countries, including the EU, Indonesia, and South Korea [4][5]. - The move is seen as a direct response to previous trade actions against China, such as the EU's imposition of a 13.2% anti-dumping duty on Chinese tinplate products [5][15]. Strategic Implications - The decision to impose tariffs on multiple countries simultaneously signals a significant change in China's role in international trade, indicating a transition to a more assertive stance [3][22]. - China is leveraging its strong industrial base in stainless steel production, which accounts for a substantial portion of the global market, to enhance domestic competitiveness [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The tariffs are designed to apply differentiated rates, particularly targeting South Korean companies, which may face punitive tariffs as high as 103.1%, while leaving some room for cooperation [18]. - Countries like Indonesia, which rely on their natural resources, are attempting to use their position to gain political leverage, but they may underestimate China's control over critical resources like nickel [10][19]. Global Reactions - The EU and UK are facing significant supply chain risks due to China's actions, prompting a reevaluation of their trade relationships with China [18]. - South Korean companies are experiencing stock declines and are considering relocating operations to mitigate risks associated with China's trade policies [18]. U.S.-China Relations - The U.S. has notably been excluded from the recent tariff list, indicating a potential shift in its approach towards China, as evidenced by recent actions to ease restrictions on exports to China [5][19][21]. - This strategic omission suggests that the U.S. may be seeking to improve relations with China, recognizing the importance of cooperation in the context of global supply chains [19][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The support from the ore end is loosening, and there is marginal inventory accumulation of refined nickel globally [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and the macro - environment, and steel prices are oscillating [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, and macro and warehouse receipt disturbances may occur repeatedly [2][10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [2][14]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy disturbances are amplifying the fluctuations in the market [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,390, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710. There were various changes in trading volume, prices of related products like 1 imported nickel, and premiums and discounts [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia will continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 production target is higher than that of 2024 [4][5][7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the 2509 contract was 64,280, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and other data. There were also changes in spot - futures basis and prices of related lithium products [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased; a Canadian company plans to build a lithium - carbonate production facility; China's battery exports in June 2025 showed growth in volume and proportion [11][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the Si2509 contract was 8,415, and the PS2508 contract was 41,330. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products and raw materials [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple photovoltaic EPC projects were terminated due to policy impacts on distributed photovoltaic power stations [14][16]. Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0 - Stainless Steel: 0 - Lithium Carbonate: 0 - Industrial Silicon: 1 - Polysilicon: 0 [4][10][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices may face downward pressure at low levels, with a slight expected decline in costs and limited upside potential. The support at the mine end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices [1]. - Stainless steel is operating with weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term off - season demand is flat, and the negative feedback is transmitted to the supply side. Although the inventory has been slightly digested and the profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired, the driving force for continuous upward repair of steel prices is weak [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamental Analysis - The support at the nickel mine end is marginally loosening. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore has marginally declined by 2 - 25 US dollars/wet ton, and the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical process is expected to slightly decrease by about 1.3%. Market concerns about the mine end have eased due to the news of increased Indonesian quotas, and the speculative sentiment has cooled [1]. - The smelting end restricts the upside elasticity of nickel prices. The negative feedback in the stainless - steel industry from June to July has affected the supply side. In July, the production schedule is 312,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively. Nickel - iron inventory has accumulated to a historical high, and the price of nickel - iron is under pressure, which restricts the upside elasticity of refined nickel valuation. Also, the inventory accumulation in the refined nickel segment is less than expected, and the operating capacity pressure is increasing marginally, limiting the upside space [1]. Stainless - Steel Fundamental Analysis - Stainless - steel supply and demand are both weak. The short - term off - season demand is flat, and the increase in US tariffs on household appliances containing steel parts has led to negative feedback on the supply side. In July, the marginal supply - demand may continue to be weak. The overall high factory inventory has slightly decreased, and the social inventory has been slightly reduced. With the raw material end offering concessions, the profit of steel mills has been marginally repaired [2]. - The production schedule of stainless steel in July is 31,200 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate has declined to 3%. In May, China's stainless - steel imports were 125,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. Indonesia's production schedule in July has recovered to 43,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 33% and 32% respectively, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2% [2]. - The surplus pressure has shifted from stainless steel to nickel - iron. The nickel - iron inventory has increased to a historical high. At the end of June, the nickel - iron inventory was 37,534 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 66% and 8% respectively. The price of nickel - iron raw materials has decreased to 910 yuan/nickel, and the cash cost center of stainless - steel gross basis has moved down to about 12,500 yuan/ton, and the delivery profit has been marginally repaired [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory has increased by 1,429 tons to 38,020 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased by 198 tons to 21,059 tons, the spot inventory has increased by 1,607 tons to 11,571 tons, and the bonded area inventory has increased by 20 tons to 5,390 tons. The LME nickel inventory has decreased by 1,824 tons to 202,470 tons [3]. - The nickel - iron inventory at the end of June was 37,534 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 66% and 8% respectively, and the inventory pressure has increased marginally [4]. - On July 3, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1568 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.20%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 625,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%, and the inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 531,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18% [4]. - The nickel - ore inventory at Chinese ports has increased by 1.1261 million wet tons to 8.7184 million wet tons. Among them, the Philippine nickel ore is 8.6424 million wet tons. Classified by nickel - ore grade, the low - nickel and high - iron ore is 4.4548 million wet tons, and the medium - and high - grade nickel ore is 4.2636 million wet tons [6]. Market News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are also crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [7]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, marking the project's entry into the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing nickel - iron with a grade of 22%, and each production line has an annual output of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel [7]. - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal - processing park has resumed production. The plant's almost entire production capacity was shut down in March due to a fatal landslide in the tailings reservoir area. Currently, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill has tentatively decided to continue the shutdown for maintenance from June to July, and may adjust according to the market situation later. This shutdown is expected to affect the production volume by 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the production of 300 - series stainless steel. The mill had already cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association (PNIA) welcomes the decision of the two - house committee to remove the raw - ore export ban clause from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), including suspected poor wastewater management, air pollution, and the use of unlicensed tailings areas. The deputy minister in charge of environmental law enforcement said that companies found to have violated the law in IMIP may be fined, and the entire industrial park will be audited [8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 122,270 yuan, with changes compared to different time points (T - 1, T - 5, etc.) as shown in the table. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,730 yuan, also with corresponding changes [11]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 111,042 lots, and that of the main stainless - steel contract is 102,164 lots, with changes compared to different time points [11]. - Other data such as the price of 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium and discount, nickel - bean premium and discount, and various spreads and costs are also provided in the table [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report offers trading strategies and trend analysis for various commodities. For example, copper is supported by a weak dollar; zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has a positive outlook due to peak - season expectations; nickel's upside is limited by changes in the mining and smelting sectors; stainless steel prices are recovering with limited elasticity; and lithium carbonate may continue to experience high volatility [3][6]. Summary by Commodity Base Metals - **Copper**: The weak dollar supports copper prices. The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79,920 yuan with a 1.31% daily increase, and the London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,879 dollars with a - 0.17% change. Japanese JX Metal will cut refined copper production, and China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: It is at a short - term high. The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,410 yuan with a 0.76% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [9][10]. - **Lead**: There are peak - season expectations supporting prices. The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,125 yuan with a - 0.58% change. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [12]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's support from the mining end is weakening, and the smelting end limits its upside. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120,480 yuan. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and prices are recovering with limited elasticity. The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,620 yuan. There are multiple industry news such as project startups and production resumptions in the nickel industry [14][15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: High volatility may continue due to fundamental pressure and warehouse - receipt contradictions. The 2507 contract closed at 63,240 yuan. SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by production - cut news, and attention should be paid to its upside space. Polysilicon requires attention to market sentiment. The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon closed at 8,030 yuan, and the PS2508 contract of polysilicon closed at 33,315 yuan [21]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations. The 12509 contract closed at 716.5 yuan with a 1.56% increase. China's industrial enterprise profits from January to May decreased year - on - year [24]. - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 2,995 yuan with a 0.98% increase, and the HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,121 yuan with a 0.94% increase. There are changes in steel production, inventory, and demand [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys (Silicon Ferro, Manganese Ferro)**: Both show wide - range fluctuations. Silicon ferro is boosted by spot sentiment, and manganese ferro is boosted by port quotes. The silicon ferro 2509 contract closed at 5370 yuan, and the manganese ferro 2509 contract closed at 5670 yuan [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both show a tendency to be strong with fluctuations. The JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 847.5 yuan with a 3.42% increase, and the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1421.5 yuan with a 1.86% increase [34][35]. - **Steam Coal**: It stabilizes with fluctuations as daily consumption recovers. The ZC2507 contract had no trading, and previous prices showed a decline [39][40]. - **Log**: It shows wide - range fluctuations with a contract - main switch. The 2507 contract closed at 819 yuan [43]. - **Paraxylene, PTA, MEG**: Paraxylene supply is shrinking, and the month - spread is strong; PTA is recommended for month - spread reverse arbitrage; MEG is weak on a single - side basis. Paraxylene's 9 - 1 month - spread shows a positive trend, and PTA and MEG have their own supply - demand and cost - related factors [46][50]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It will run with short - term fluctuations. The main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,275 yuan. The industry has inventory and price changes [52]. - **Asphalt**: It shows weak fluctuations, and long - crack spread positions should consider taking profits. The BU2507 contract closed at 3,577 yuan. Refinery inventory rates decreased [55]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The near - end fundamentals in the producing areas have limited improvement, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Attention should be paid to the US soybean acreage report [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal rebounds with fluctuations, and risks related to the USDA report should be avoided. Soybean No.1 has a stable spot price and a rebounding and fluctuating futures price [5]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to auctions [5]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound consolidation [5]. - **Cotton**: Optimistic sentiment drives the futures price to rise with fluctuations [5]. - **Eggs**: Gradually arrange short positions in far - month contracts [5]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term adjustment [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the lower level [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity. The downside space of nickel prices depends on the support at the mine end. The news of increased quotas in Indonesia affects the mine - end expectations, and the third quarter is often the stage of quota release and premium callback. In July, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore may slightly decline. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic becomes less significant, if pricing returns to the smelting - end fundamentals, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. In July, the stainless - steel production in China and Indonesia stabilizes, nickel - iron inventory accumulates to a historical high, and the negative feedback pressures the nickel - iron valuation, which restricts the upside elasticity of refined - nickel valuation. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, while the operating capacity increases marginally, and supply elasticity limits the upside space [1]. - For stainless steel, it operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, boosting the market. However, the tariff increase on household appliances containing steel parts in the US and the weak short - term off - season demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. After the negative feedback leads to a decline in actual supply, the overall high factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces. If the production - cut expectation is continuously verified in the inventory, the suppression of stainless - steel profit by over - supply may ease, but the overall cost center moves down, and the raw - material end of nickel - iron gives up profits, limiting the upside repair elasticity of steel prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel fundamentals**: The support at the mine end is marginally loosening, and the smelting - end logic restricts the upside elasticity. The news of increased Indonesian quotas affects mine - end expectations, and the third - quarter is a stage of quota release and premium callback. The convergence of the economic difference between Philippine and Indonesian ore prices may limit the upside elasticity of Indonesian nickel ore. After the mine - end logic fades, the upside elasticity may be pressured by supply elasticity. The inventory accumulation in the refined - nickel segment is less than expected, and the operating capacity increases marginally [1]. - **Stainless - steel fundamentals**: It operates with weak supply and demand, the inventory has a slight reduction, and the steel price is marginally repaired but with limited upside elasticity. The macro - expectation improves marginally, but the tariff increase in the US and weak short - term demand lead to negative feedback on supply. In July, the marginal supply - demand may remain weak. The production in China and Indonesia has different trends, and after the negative feedback on supply, the factory inventory slightly decreases, and the social inventory marginally reduces [2]. Inventory Changes - **Nickel inventory**: The social inventory of refined nickel in China increases by 120 tons to 36,591 tons, with a decrease in warehouse - receipt inventory and an increase in spot inventory, and the bonded - area inventory remains unchanged. The LME nickel inventory decreases by 846 tons to 204,294 tons. The nickel - iron inventory in mid - June increases year - on - year and month - on - month, and the port nickel - ore inventory in China increases by 199,900 wet tons to 7.5923 million wet tons [3][5]. - **Stainless - steel inventory**: The total social inventory of stainless steel decreases by 0.25% week - on - week. The cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory decreases, while the hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory increases. The inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel also shows a decrease in the total and cold - rolled inventory and an increase in the hot - rolled inventory [3]. Market News - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [6]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF successfully produces nickel - iron and enters the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of metallic nickel per line [6]. - A nickel smelter in an important Indonesian metal - processing park resumes production, and the capacity of the Indonesian QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [6]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill suspends production for maintenance from June to July, which may affect the production of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly of the 300 - series [6]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the decision to remove the raw - ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal - system bill [7]. - Environmental violations are found in the Indonesian Morowali Industrial Park, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire park [7]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - **Futures data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and other relevant data of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as the prices, premiums, and spreads of related products such as imported nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless - steel products, are presented in the table, showing different trends compared with previous periods [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the expectation of the nickel ore end in the long - term is loosening, and the smelting end restricts the upside elasticity. The global visible inventory is accumulating marginally. The high cost of pyrometallurgical integration in Indonesia may limit the downside space of nickel prices, but news about increased quotas in Indonesia and potential changes in the Philippines' export policy have cooled market concerns and speculation about the ore end. The smelting end lacks demand highlights, and supply elasticity restricts the upside space [1]. - For stainless steel, the supply and demand are both weakening marginally, and the steel price is oscillating at a low level. The pressure release after the easing of tariffs is not obvious, and new tariffs from the US and weak off - season demand restrict the upside elasticity of steel prices. Negative feedback has spread to the supply side, and the overall inventory needs to be digested. In the short - term, the steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and in the long - term, the pressure on the profit link may ease if production cuts continue and an inventory inflection point is seen, but the steel price center may not rise significantly [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamentals Nickel - The logic of the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end restricts the upside of nickel prices. The global refined nickel visible inventory is accumulating, and there are expectations of more potential supply in the medium - term. The negative feedback from stainless steel has led to increased production cuts and pressure on ferronickel, which in turn restricts the upside of refined nickel valuations [1]. Stainless Steel - Production and imports are declining marginally, and the current inventory is still under pressure. The supply - demand relationship has turned weak. The production schedule in June shows a year - on - year and month - on - month decline, and the inventory needs to be digested. The steel price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,437 tons to 36,471 tons, with decreases in warehouse receipt, spot, and bonded area inventories. LME nickel inventory increased by 7,602 tons to 205,140 tons [3]. - The ferronickel inventory in mid - June increased by 58% year - on - year and 10% month - on - month, with increasing inventory pressure [4]. - The total social inventory of stainless steel increased by 1.04% week - on - week, with increases in cold - rolled, hot - rolled, and 300 - series inventories [4]. - China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 173,700 wet tons to 7.3924 million wet tons, an increase of 2.41% [6]. Market News - In March, the Ontario provincial governor of Canada proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [7]. - In April, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced ferronickel and entered the trial - production stage [7]. - An overseas nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [7]. - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which may affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series [7]. - The Philippine Nickel Industry Association welcomes the decision to remove the raw ore export ban from the final version of the mining fiscal system bill [8]. - Environmental violations have been found in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the companies involved and will audit the entire park [8]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides a table of weekly key data for nickel and stainless steel, including futures prices, trading volumes, premiums, spreads, and prices of related products in the industrial chain [11]. Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the prices, trading volumes, inventories, and spreads of nickel and stainless steel futures contracts, as well as the prices and inventories of related raw materials [12][15][17][19][22][24][26]

Group 1 - Nickel prices have recently declined due to the Philippines' decision to remove the export ban on raw minerals, which has impacted market sentiment and led to a drop in prices [1] - The Philippines aims to promote domestic mining development by implementing a mineral export ban similar to Indonesia's, but the current weak demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors has dampened investment motivation [1][2] - Indonesia has become the largest producer of nickel globally, and its new nickel mining quota approval policy has slowed down the approval process, affecting market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in nickel prices, the supply of nickel ore remains tight due to seasonal weather impacts in both Indonesia and the Philippines, which has kept prices relatively high [3][4] - Domestic nickel iron smelting plants are experiencing losses, leading to reduced production and a decline in procurement demand [4][5] - The production of nickel intermediate products, particularly MHP, is expected to increase, which may lead to a further decline in cost levels in the industry [7][9] Group 3 - The demand for refined nickel has shown positive growth, particularly driven by the emerging need for pre-plated nickel materials in battery production, which is expected to create a significant supply-demand gap [13] - Traditional demand from stainless steel production is weakening, with notable reductions in output and a slower pace of inventory depletion [14][15] - The overall supply tightness in nickel ore and intermediate products is expected to provide cost support for nickel prices, although weak terminal demand may limit price increases [17]