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镍:沪镍投机情绪仍存,持续关注镍矿矛盾,不锈钢:成本支撑重心上移,淡季累库约束弹性
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-02-25 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, there is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradictions in nickel ore [1] - For stainless steel, the cost - support center has shifted upward, and inventory accumulation during the off - season restricts its elasticity [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract is 137,950, with a change of 2,760 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract is 14,085, with a change of 225 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract is 133,057, a decrease of 246,471 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless steel's main contract is 126,039, a decrease of 97,844 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Industry Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 137,900, with a change of 2,400 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,054, with a change of 2 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,200, with a change of 100 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1] - Indonesia will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2] - Some Indonesian mines may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final fine may be lower [2] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [3] - Indonesia's ESDM has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [3] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months [3] - The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia in 2026 is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons [4] - Philippine miners say the export volume of Indonesian nickel ore may double [4] - A landslide occurred in the tailings area of the IMIP park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [6]