Core Viewpoint - Nickel stocks experienced a significant increase in early trading, driven by news of a landslide at the Morowali nickel mining center in Indonesia, which resulted in one worker's death and damage to several mining vehicles [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Liqin Resources (02245) rose by 8.33% to HKD 29.64 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) increased by 3.42% to HKD 2.72 - Zhongwei New Materials (02579) saw a rise of 3.4% to HKD 38.28 [1] Group 2: Impact of the Incident - The landslide is expected to affect nickel production in Indonesia, with the government maintaining a supportive stance on nickel prices, which are anticipated to remain above USD 18,000 [1] - The Indonesian government has projected nickel mining quotas for 2026 to be between 250-260 million tons, a decrease of over 34% compared to 379 million tons in 2025 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Guosen Securities noted that Indonesia is the world's largest nickel supplier and has a mature quota system, indicating potential policy adjustments to increase mining development costs and barriers [1] - Future fluctuations in nickel prices will largely depend on adjustments to Indonesia's nickel mining quotas, with the possibility of extreme tightening of supply by the government being a potential risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel stocks experienced a significant increase in early trading, driven by news of a landslide at the Morowali nickel mining center in Indonesia, which resulted in one worker's death and damage to several mining vehicles [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Liqin Resources (02245) rose by 8.33%, trading at HKD 29.64 [1] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) increased by 3.42%, trading at HKD 2.72 [1] - Zhongwei New Materials (300919) saw a rise of 3.4%, trading at HKD 38.28 [1] Group 2: Impact of the Landslide - The landslide at the Morowali nickel mining center is expected to affect nickel production in Indonesia [1] - According to Founder Securities, the Indonesian government is supportive of nickel prices, which are expected to remain above USD 18,000 [1] Group 3: Future Nickel Supply and Pricing - The Indonesian government projects nickel ore quotas for 2026 to be between 250-260 million tons, a decrease of over 34% compared to 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - Guosen Securities reports that Indonesia is the world's largest nickel supplier and has a mature quota system, indicating potential policy adjustments to increase mining development costs and barriers [1] - Future changes in nickel prices will largely depend on adjustments to Indonesia's nickel ore quotas, with the possibility of extreme tightening of supply by the Indonesian government being a potential risk [1]

Group 1 - Nickel stocks experienced a significant increase in early trading, with Liqin Resources rising by 8.33% to HKD 29.64, Xinjiang Xinxin Mining up by 3.42% to HKD 2.72, and Zhongwei New Materials increasing by 3.4% to HKD 38.28 [1] - A landslide at the Morowali nickel mining center in Indonesia resulted in one worker's death and the loss of several excavators, bulldozers, and dump trucks, which is expected to impact nickel production in Indonesia [1] - The Indonesian government is expected to set nickel mining quotas at 250-260 million tons for 2026, a decrease of over 34% compared to the 379 million tons quota for 2025 [1] Group 2 - According to Guosen Securities, Indonesia is the largest nickel supplier globally and has a mature quota system, indicating that the government aims to increase the barriers and costs of nickel mining through policy adjustments [1] - Future changes in nickel prices will largely depend on adjustments to Indonesia's nickel mining quotas, with the possibility of extreme tightening of nickel supply by the Indonesian government being a potential black swan event [1]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - On January 28, the nickel price first declined and then rose, remaining in a high - level oscillation. The main contract closed down 1.31% at 144,370 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 7,822 hands to 393,000 hands. The expected adjustment of RKAB approval quota to 2.6 billion tons and the delayed verification of the MOMS system in most mines support the expectation of reduced supply, which in turn supports the continuous increase of nickel ore prices. The cost of nickel is high, and although downstream acceptance is low, the low - price transactions are few, and the overall price remains firm. Policy disturbances are expected to support the nickel market with significant upward elasticity [7]. 4. Summary by Sections 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price on January 28: It first declined and then rose, with the main contract closing down 1.31% at 144,370 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreasing by 7,822 hands to 393,000 hands [7]. - Supply factor: The expected adjustment of RKAB approval quota to 2.6 billion tons and the delayed MOMS system verification in most mines support the expectation of reduced supply, and the nickel ore suppliers continue to raise prices [7]. - Cost and market situation: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 2 to 1,055.5 yuan/nickel point. The bullish sentiment on the pure nickel side drives the rise of nickel iron. Although the downstream acceptance willingness is reduced due to high costs, low - price transactions are few, and the price remains firm [7]. - Outlook: Policy disturbances are expected to support the nickel market with significant upward elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy statements and the actual quota issuance rhythm [7]. 4.2 Industry News - PT Vale Indonesia: The HPAL Pomalaa project in Southeast Sulawesi is accelerating. As of December 2025, the project's construction progress reached about 60%. Two autoclave units have arrived at the project site, and another three units are planned to be delivered later. The company aims to complete the mechanical completion of the HPAL Pomalaa plant by August 2026. PT Vale is the only nickel ore supplier for the plant [8]. - First Quantum Minerals Ltd.: In 2025, the copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised guidance range; the gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit of the guidance; the Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered the copper and gold production guidance for 2026 - 2027, keeping the nickel production guidance unchanged. The unit copper cash cost and AISC are expected to be higher than previously expected, and the 2026 capital expenditure guidance is raised. The Panama government's agreement to process Cobre Panamá inventory ore is a positive signal [9][10]. - Indonesian Nickel Smelter Association: It is estimated that the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to strategically adjust the 2026 nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to 250 - 260 million tons. The existing quota is allowed to be extended until March 31, 2026, and the actual annual supply depends on later government evaluation and quota addition [10].