Workflow
镍需求不确定性
icon
Search documents
镍:短期震荡格局延续 中线静待反弹契机
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-21 11:16
Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices have shown a fluctuating pattern since July, reaching a peak of 125,370 CNY/ton in late July due to new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries [1] - As positive market sentiments are digested, nickel prices are expected to continue in a range-bound trend in August, influenced by both supportive and adverse factors [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Global nickel ore production reached 1.6463 million tons from January to May 2025, with May's production at 346,200 tons, indicating a generally loose supply [1] - Indonesia's nickel ore production quota has been raised, but operational challenges have led to the shutdown of approximately 28 RKEF production lines, resulting in lower actual production [1] - China's nickel ore imports in July were at a five-year high, contributing to a continuous accumulation of nickel ore inventory at ports [1] Group 3: Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless steel industry in both Indonesia and China is currently in a traditional off-season, leading to reduced demand and production [2] - Domestic stainless steel crude steel production has declined for four consecutive months, with July's output down by 300,000 tons from February's peak [2] - Despite the challenges, there are expectations for a rebound in production as the off-season ends, which may support nickel prices [2] Group 4: Battery and Plating Sectors - From January to July, domestic sales of new energy vehicles increased by 35%, driving demand for nickel sulfate [3] - However, external risks such as U.S. tariffs on imported cars may slow down growth in nickel consumption in the battery and plating sectors [3] Group 5: Alloy Demand - China's automobile production rose by 12.6% from January to July, bolstering alloy nickel consumption [4] - Domestic refined nickel production saw a significant increase of 41% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching a four-year high [4] - Nonetheless, rising external uncertainties, including U.S. tariffs, could negatively impact future nickel consumption in the alloy sector [4] Group 6: Inventory Levels - As of August 19, 2025, LME nickel inventory reached 209,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 84%, indicating a loose supply environment [6] - High inventory levels are expected to suppress the potential for price rebounds and affect market sentiment [6] Group 7: Market Outlook - The short-term outlook suggests continued range-bound trading for nickel prices, with a focus on macro policy changes and demand recovery signals [6] - The strategy recommendation includes holding a sell position on nickel options, anticipating price fluctuations within a specified range [6]