Core Viewpoint - A new wave of selling in global long-term bonds has emerged, with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.17% and 30-year yields approaching 4.82%, both reaching new highs since September [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market - The market is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with traders expecting a 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut [1][3] - Analysts anticipate that the Fed's decision will carry a hawkish tone, suggesting a potential extension of the pause on rate cuts into next year [3] - The swap market indicates that the terminal rate has risen from below 3% to 3.2%, the highest level since July [1] Group 2: Global Bond Market Trends - Concerns over fiscal sustainability and inflation pressures are leading markets to bet on multiple countries, including Japan, Australia, and Canada, resuming rate hikes by 2026 [5] - Japan's 30-year bond yield has increased by 34 basis points to 3.39%, leading the global long bond sell-off [5] - Australia's inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.8%, with market expectations for a 34 basis point rate hike by the next Reserve Bank meeting [5] - Canada's employment data has led to a 25 basis point rate hike expectation for 2026, with its 30-year bond yield rising by 28 basis points to 3.85% [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has seen an overall increase of 2 to 3 basis points, with mid-term bonds performing the weakest [4] - The Treasury adjusted its auction schedule to align with the Fed's two-day meeting, indicating a strategic response to market conditions [4] - High expectations for continued easing have paradoxically led to higher yields rather than lower ones [4]