美元兑日元技术分析 从技术面来看，美元/日元的每日相对强弱指数（RSI）显示市场处于轻微超买状态，这使得交易者对追 高该货币对持谨慎态度，短期或需等待汇率整理或适度回撤后再布局多头头寸。 支撑层面，美元/日元的修正性下跌或在157.00附近获得支撑，若跌破该水平，下一支撑位看向156.00， 该位置为关键关口，一旦失守可能引发更大幅度的回落。阻力方面，158.00为即时阻力位，若突破则有 望上探158.50附近的中期阻力，进一步上行则将测试1月份159.00的摆动高点。 11月24日（周一），美元/日元在亚洲早盘时段上涨约0.50%，汇率触及156.50一线，日元延续近期贬值 态势。美联储偏鹰派的政策预期对美元形成支撑，成为压制日元的核心因素，而市场则聚焦于周二发布 的美国9月生产者价格指数（PPI）报告，等待更多美元走势线索。 日本财务大臣片山皋月（原文片山悦树为译名误差）在近期发表了迄今为止最强烈的口头干预警告，称 将在必要时采取适当行动应对外汇市场的过度波动与混乱，包括长期异常的市场走势，这一表态在亚洲 时段为日元提供了温和支撑。此前11月21日，片山皋月已明确表示日元对美元走势"非常单向且急速"， 并 ...

Market Overview - The Korean stock market opened significantly higher today, recovering from its largest single-day drop since August, with an initial increase of over 2% before narrowing to a 1.09% gain [4][5] - The Seoul Composite Index reached 4048.19, up by 43.77 points [5] - Key stocks such as LG Energy, Korea Electric Power, and LG Electronics showed notable gains [6] Economic Indicators - South Korea's trade surplus expanded to $14.245 billion in September, with a current account surplus of $13.467 billion [6] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index also saw a rise of over 2%, currently reported at 50964.96 points [8] Company Performance - Nintendo's stock surged by over 6%, reaching a new high in over 11 weeks, following the release of its Q3 financial results for FY 2025-2026, which exceeded market expectations [9][10] - Nintendo reported Q3 revenue of 527.2 billion yen, significantly above the expected 461.76 billion yen, marking a year-on-year growth of over 90% [11] Wage Trends - Japan's nominal wages increased by 1.9% year-on-year in September, aligning with economists' expectations, while real cash earnings fell by 1.4% for the ninth consecutive month [12][13] - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring wage trends as a key factor for future interest rate decisions, with the next policy meeting scheduled for December 19 [13]

Group 1 - Global markets are experiencing synchronized declines, with significant adjustments in East Asian markets, particularly Japan down 1.7% and South Korea down 2.2% [3] - The primary trigger for this global downturn is linked to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with concerns about inflation potentially leading to a pause in rate cuts or even speculation about a return to a rate hike cycle [3] - If the Fed pauses rate cuts or raises rates, it would tighten liquidity, which is crucial for maintaining or advancing current high stock market levels [3] Group 2 - The overall market reaction indicates a chain impact on various asset classes, with stock markets responding first, a strong dollar approaching the 100 mark, and precious metals like gold and silver facing pressure [3] - U.S. Treasury yields are rising, indicating a reverse correlation with bond prices, which are also under pressure [3]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing fluctuations, currently trading around 153.8000, with a slight decline of 0.19% as the market digests previous gains and awaits further signals regarding interest rate changes in Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD/JPY opened at 154.1100 and closed the previous trading day at 154.1200, indicating a slight downward movement after reaching an eight-month high due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1]. - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its current policy has created uncertainty regarding the timing of future interest rate hikes, which may limit the appreciation of the yen [1]. - The market is currently cautious, preferring to wait for more information about potential interest rate hikes in December or early next year, especially in light of the new Prime Minister's expected aggressive fiscal spending plans [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY remains below the monthly high resistance zone of 153.25-153.30, with a potential for bearish trading if it breaks below the 152.00 level [2]. - A significant drop below 152.00 could lead to further declines towards the key support levels of 151.10-151.00, confirming a bearish trend [2]. - Conversely, if the USD/JPY can break through the 153.25-153.30 resistance zone, it may attempt to reclaim the 154.00 level, with potential extensions towards 154.50 and 154.75-154.80 [2].

Group 1 - The core CPI in Tokyo for October increased by 2.8% year-on-year, remaining above the Bank of Japan's inflation target of 2%, which sustains market expectations for a potential interest rate hike in the short term [1] - The Tokyo core CPI, excluding volatile fresh food prices, was higher than market expectations of 2.6%, with a previous value of 2.5% [1] - The Tokyo CPI year-on-year, which excludes both fresh food and energy prices, was reported at 2.8%, also exceeding the September figure of 2.5% [1] Group 2 - Despite consumer inflation being above the 2% target for over three years, the Governor of the Bank of Japan emphasized the need for caution in considering further interest rate hikes due to uncertainties surrounding the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the Japanese economy [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar for seven consecutive days, reaching a two-week low, with the latest USD/JPY rate at 153.0100, up 0.10% [1] - Japan's service industry inflation rose again in September, with the Producer Price Index accelerating from 2.7% in August to 3.0%, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) [1] - The new Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, is seen as a successor to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policies, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal health and limiting aggressive bullish bets on the yen [1] Group 2 - Investors are cautious ahead of key meetings from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and BoJ, with short-term focus on resistance at 153.25 and support at 152.65 [2] - From a technical perspective, a sustained buy above the 153.25-153.30 range could trigger further bullish momentum for USD/JPY, potentially targeting levels up to 155.00 [3] - Immediate support is noted at the 152.65 level, with a potential drop below this level leading to further declines towards 152.00 and possibly 151.10-151.00 [3]

Market Overview - On October 20, the Japanese stock market experienced a significant surge, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 1600 points, marking its first-ever breach of the 49000-point threshold, closing at 49185.5 points, a 3.37% increase from the previous trading day [2][4] - The rise in the stock market is attributed to the expected political stability following the anticipated victory of Fumio Kishida in the upcoming prime ministerial election, as the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party are set to sign a coalition agreement [1][4] Political Developments - The coalition agreement between the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party indicates that Fumio Kishida is likely to win the prime ministerial election on October 21, reducing political uncertainty in Japan [1][4] - Kishida is viewed as a proponent of "Abenomics," advocating for expansionary fiscal policies aimed at doubling Japan's economic size within ten years through tax cuts, economic stimulus, and government investment [5] Economic Policies - Kishida emphasizes the importance of demand-driven growth supported by rising wages and corporate profits, suggesting that current inflation is primarily due to rising raw material costs rather than domestic economic growth [5] - Analysts believe Kishida's victory may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy, potentially delaying interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) until the new government's policies are clearer [5][7] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with Kioxia Holdings rising nearly 9%, and other companies like LASERTEC and Tokyo Electron also experiencing substantial increases [4] - Financial stocks performed well, with Mizuho Financial Group up over 6%, and other banks like Chiba Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group rising over 4% [4] Central Bank Insights - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the decision on interest rate hikes will consider various data, including information gathered during his time in Washington [6] - Ueda noted that while global and U.S. economies show resilience, the impact of U.S. tariff policies on Japan's economy will be a critical factor in the BOJ's decision-making process [6][7] - Some BOJ policymakers have expressed the need to be cautious about rising prices and are prepared to raise the benchmark interest rate, with discussions around the timing of such a move being influenced by political uncertainties [8]

Market Performance - The Japanese stock market experienced a significant surge, with the Nikkei 225 index rising over 1600 points, marking a historic high by surpassing 49000 points, with a daily increase of over 3% [1][3] - As of the afternoon close, the Nikkei 225 index stood at 49185.5 points, reflecting a 3.37% increase from the previous trading day [3] Political Developments - The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party are set to sign a coalition agreement, indicating that Fumio Kishida is likely to win the prime ministerial election on October 21 [1][6] - Analysts suggest that the reduction of political uncertainty has positively impacted the Japanese stock market, with expectations that Kishida will implement low-interest rates and increased government spending [1][6] Sector Performance - The semiconductor sector saw collective gains, with Kioxia Holdings rising nearly 9%, LASERTEC up over 5%, and Tokyo Electron increasing by over 4% [5] - Financial stocks also performed well, with Mizuho Financial Group rising over 6%, and Chiba Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group both up over 4% [5] - Electrical machinery stocks showed strength, with Yaskawa Electric up over 7%, Fanuc increasing by over 6%, and Fuji Electric rising nearly 4% [5] Economic Policy Outlook - Kishida is viewed as a proponent of "Abenomics," advocating for expansionary fiscal policies aimed at doubling Japan's economic scale within ten years, which includes tax cuts, economic stimulus, and government investment [6] - Kishida emphasized the need for collaboration between the government and the central bank to ensure demand-driven growth supported by rising wages and corporate profits [6] Monetary Policy Implications - Market participants believe Kishida's victory may introduce uncertainty regarding monetary policy, potentially delaying interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan until new government policies are clearer [7] - The Bank of Japan Governor has indicated that various data will be considered before deciding on interest rate changes, emphasizing the importance of global economic conditions [9][10]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary revealed that the Trump administration is strengthening control over key strategic sectors to counter China's economic initiatives, marking a shift from the "free market" ideology [2] - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline due to concerns over bank bad debts and escalating trade tensions with China, alongside a government shutdown entering its third week [2] - Japanese central bank officials indicated that inflation targets may be reached sooner than expected, increasing expectations for interest rate hikes [2] Group 2 - On October 16, multiple A-share companies reported share reductions, with no companies announcing increases, indicating potential market impacts [3] - NIO faced a lawsuit for securities fraud, leading to a significant drop in its stock price, which affected the broader automotive sector [3] - Indonesia confirmed the procurement of Chinese J-10 fighter jets as part of its military modernization efforts [3] Group 3 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a special action plan aimed at enhancing computing power, with long-term investment opportunities anticipated in the sector [4] - Fuyao Glass announced a leadership change with Cao Dewang resigning as chairman, while the company reported revenue and net profit growth, leading to a slight increase in stock price [5] - Gold prices reached a new high, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical risks, with a significant year-to-date increase of over 60% [5]

Group 1 - The Japanese yen is experiencing its worst week in a year, with a nearly 4% decline this week, trading around 153 against the US dollar, the lowest level since mid-February [1][3] - The sharp decline in the yen is primarily due to market concerns over the potential election of a dovish figure, Sanae Takaichi, as Japan's first female Prime Minister, which may reduce the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3][4] - Market sentiment regarding Japan's monetary policy has turned pessimistic, with traders adjusting their expectations significantly, now estimating a 45% chance of a rate hike in December [4] Group 2 - Investors believe that Takaichi's fiscal policy stance may pose political resistance to future interest rate increases by the Bank of Japan, leading to a shift in market expectations [4] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in March next year, indicating that hopes for tightening monetary policy in the short term have been pushed further into the future [4] - Expectations for intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japanese authorities are also diminishing, as recent comments from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki suggest that immediate intervention is unlikely, potentially encouraging further selling of the yen [4]