每经编辑｜陈柯名 近日，独立研究机构Citrini Research发布《2028全球智能危机》报告，引发了全球范围内对"AI（人工智能）替代潮"或将导致失业的讨论，美股配送、支 付、软件类股价大跌。 日本东京Dawn Avatar 机器人咖啡馆内，机器人服务员为顾客送饮品。图源：潇湘晨报 显然，如果没有机器人，这种场景是无法催生的。AI最直接的影响在于消灭了商业系统中的"摩擦力"。那些依赖信息不对称、消费者习惯或人类耐心有限 而建立的传统中介模式正在瓦解。但这并不意味着人类无事可做，悲观主义者陷入了"劳动总量谬误"，错误地认为社会的工作总量固定不变。 事实更为乐观，成本的降低可以催生出新的"长尾需求"。放在以前，这是无法负担的成本，但当下却有了这样的可行性。 与此同时，制度创新将修复财富分配，可以把更多的"闲暇"还给人类。 图片来源：AI生成 Citrini Research的观点可以简单地总结为：人工智能正深刻重塑劳动力、技术、资本三大经济学核心要素的关系，传统经济增长范式正逐步面临失效与重 构。过去，增加资本投入必然需要雇用更多劳动力；未来，企业可以将节省下来的劳动力成本直接转化为对机器人的投资，形成一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Runben Co., a company specializing in mosquito repellent products, was below expectations in Q2, despite a seasonal peak for such products and the emergence of the Chikungunya virus in mainland China [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2, Runben's revenue from mosquito repellent products grew by 14% year-on-year to 332 million yuan, while total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 13.46% and decreased by 0.85%, respectively, significantly lower than Q1's growth rates of 44.00% and 24.60% [1][3]. - The overall revenue and net profit growth for the first half of 2025 were notably lower than previous years [1]. Group 2: Business Segments - Runben's baby care segment outperformed its mosquito repellent business, achieving a growth rate of 23% in Q2, surpassing the mosquito repellent segment [3]. - The baby care business has become the largest segment for Runben since 2022, with revenue growth rates of 80%, 34%, 32%, and 39% from 2022 to the first half of 2025, projecting a potential revenue close to 1 billion yuan for the full year of 2025 [5][3]. Group 3: Market Strategy - Runben's strategy focuses on capturing niche demands and light innovation, similar to its initial approach in the mosquito repellent market, allowing it to identify and create smaller market needs [7][8]. - The company has introduced over 40 new products in the first half of 2025, with a total of 223 product links available on its Tmall flagship store, significantly more than competitors [10]. Group 4: Marketing and Sales - Runben's marketing expenses increased by 43% to 183 million yuan in the first half of 2025, leading to a sales expense growth of 38.23%, which exceeded revenue growth [11]. - The company primarily relies on online marketing, with over 70% of its revenue coming from online sales, utilizing social media and short video content for promotion [11].