编者的话："也许是时候对机器人和人工智能（AI）软件征税了。"美国《财富》杂志今年年 初以此为题，将"机器人税"这一话题引入公众讨论。而在近日举办的2025世界人形机器人运 动会上，中国机器人企业宇树科技创始人王兴兴对"向机器人征税"的公开表态，再度引发行 业内外对这一设想展开热议。随着人工智能及人形机器人等技术的快速发展，"机器替代人 力"的担忧日益显著，也使"机器人税"这一政策构想在美国、德国、韩国等多个国家持续引 发探讨。究竟应如何设计"机器人税"？其背后涉及哪些复杂的经济与社会因素？从全球产业 发展的角度看，当前是否已经具备了开征此税的条件？《环球时报》记者就上述问题展开了 深入调查。 一种前瞻性应对方案 摩根士丹利研究报告预测，到2050年，全球"类人机器人市场"的总规模有望突破5万亿美元，将有超过 10亿个人形机器人投入使用。这一巨大增量意味着，未来几十年内，人类社会或将迎来一场影响力不亚 于互联网普及的技术替代浪潮。特斯拉创始人马斯克更是预测，未来每个人都会拥有3到5个机器人。在 此背景下，不少人开始担忧机器人的介入会导致自己失业。对于这一问题，美国微软公司创始人比尔· 盖茨在2017年就公开支 ...

Core Concept - The discussion around a "robot tax" has gained traction due to the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence and humanoid robots, raising concerns about job displacement and the need for a new tax framework to address the economic and social implications of automation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Potential and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the global humanoid robot market could exceed $5 trillion, with over 1 billion humanoid robots in use, indicating a significant technological shift comparable to the internet [2]. - The humanoid robot industry is currently transitioning from experimental phases to industrial applications, with projections suggesting that China could have over 100 million humanoid robots in use by 2045, with a market size reaching approximately 10 trillion yuan [8][9]. Group 2: Economic and Social Implications - The concept of a "robot tax" is seen as a proactive response to the economic changes brought about by automation, aiming to redistribute the productivity gains from technology to support retraining and social welfare programs [3][4]. - Experts argue that taxing automation could provide new fiscal resources to support displaced workers and explore models like Universal Basic Income (UBI) [3][4]. Group 3: Global Perspectives and Challenges - Countries like Germany and South Korea have engaged in discussions about implementing a robot tax, with varying opinions from labor unions and business sectors regarding its potential impact on innovation and economic growth [5][6]. - Concerns exist that a poorly designed robot tax could stifle innovation and place domestic industries at a competitive disadvantage globally, highlighting the need for careful policy design [7][9]. Group 4: Current Industry Status and Recommendations - The humanoid robot industry is still in its early commercial application stages, facing challenges such as high manufacturing costs and limited operational capabilities, which hinder widespread adoption [9][10]. - Experts recommend a phased approach to policy development, focusing on encouraging innovation and establishing standards rather than rushing into taxation, to create a supportive environment for the industry's growth [10].

此外，王兴兴还表示未来可以征收"机器人税"，在机器人真正能干活了以后，整个社会对机器人的观念 要发生很大改变。国际数据公司IDC发布的报告显示， 2024年中国人形机器人商用销售出货量约为2000 台，预计到2030年达到6万台。 在活动中，宇树科技创始人、首席执行官兼首席技术官王兴兴回答记者提问时表示，从出货量的角度来 看，未来几年内全球人形机器人行业每年"翻一番"应该是可以保证的。 8月8日，以"让机器人更智慧，让具身体更智能"为主题的2025世界机器人大会在北京开幕，活动共持续 5天。 让机器人"真正能干活"需要多长时间？王兴兴认为，快的话可能2到3年内会有明显的技术突破，慢的话 可能3到5年，但是他认为大概率不会超过10年。 人形机器人出货量有望每年"翻一番" 机器人需要"真正干活"，未来可收"机器人税" 在2025世界机器人大会上，能看到各个企业的人形机器人进行搬箱子、打太极、跳舞、踢球等运动。王 兴兴表示，去年到今年，宇树科技的机器人在跳舞、格斗表演、跑步运动等方面展示得多一些，做得相 对比较好。 为什么目前大家看到的人形机器人表演和展示居多、真正干活的偏少？王兴兴认为，其一，在展会上普 通老百姓 ...

此外，王兴兴还表示未来可以征收"机器人税"，在机器人真正能干活了以后，整个社会对机器人的观念要发生 很大改变。国际数据公司IDC发布的报告显示， 2024年中国人形机器人商用销售出货量约为2000台，预计到 2030年达到6万台。 机器人需要"真正干活"，未来可收"机器人税" 8月8日，以"让机器人更智慧，让具身体更智能"为主题的2025世界机器人大会在北京开幕，活动共持续5 天。 在活动中，宇树科技创始人、首席执行官兼首席技术官王兴兴回答记者提问时表示，从出货量的角度来看，未 来几年内全球人形机器人行业每年"翻一番"应该是可以保证的。 在2025世界机器人大会上，能看到各个企业的人形机器人进行搬箱子、打太极、跳舞、踢球等运动。王兴兴 表示，去年到今年，宇树科技的机器人在跳舞、格斗表演、跑步运动等方面展示得多一些，做得相对比较好。 为什么目前大家看到的人形机器人表演和展示居多、真正干活的偏少？王兴兴认为，其一，在展会上普通老百 姓会更喜欢表演，这种诉求需要被满足。其二，当下真正让机器人干活不太现实，一些工厂的固定工序是可以 做的，但是某种意义上这和"具身智能"其实没有本质的关系。 王兴兴表示，整个行业内大部分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around "robot tax" has resurfaced, with calls for taxation on robots and AI systems to support social security and address potential job losses due to automation [1][4][5]. Group 1: Background and Historical Context - The concept of taxing machines has been debated since the 1950s, evolving from "machine tax" to "robot tax" and "AI tax" [3]. - The European Parliament rejected a proposal for a "robot tax" in 2017, which was welcomed by the robotics industry, citing concerns over innovation and employment [3][4]. Group 2: Arguments For and Against Robot Tax - Proponents argue that a "robot tax" could provide funding for basic income to support those displaced by automation [4][5]. - Critics warn that imposing such a tax could hinder corporate profitability and innovation, potentially leading to reduced employment opportunities [4][6]. Group 3: Global Perspectives and Initiatives - Various countries and organizations have proposed or discussed the implementation of a "robot tax," including India and Germany, where political support exists among certain parties [5][6]. - In South Korea, a tax reform reduced incentives for automation investments, reflecting a similar approach to taxing automation indirectly [6]. Group 4: Taxation Models and Concepts - Concepts like "Human Equivalent Effort Time" (HEET) have been proposed as a basis for taxing AI and robots, suggesting a shift from traditional income tax models [8]. - Some experts suggest that companies using AI should pay higher taxes compared to traditional businesses, with proposals for a global framework for AI taxation [8]. Group 5: Economic Implications and Employment Impact - Estimates suggest that AI could displace up to 300 million jobs globally, affecting 25% of the workforce [10]. - However, there is debate over the extent of job losses, with some studies indicating that new job creation may offset losses in certain sectors [10][12].