Group 1 - The concept of a "robot tax" has entered the agenda of some economies, although no country has officially legislated it yet [2][8] - Various forms of implementing a "robot tax" include reducing tax incentives for the robotics industry or directly increasing tax rates for that sector [2][10] - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to lead to robots permeating various sectors of the economy, complicating tax issues [2][3] Group 2 - The widespread application of AI technology is predicted to create new jobs and change job content in the long term, but it may negatively impact the job market in the short term [3][4] - South Korea has the highest robot density globally, with 1,012 industrial robots per 10,000 employees in 2023, significantly higher than the global average of 162 [3][4] - The introduction of a "robot tax" is seen as a potential solution to provide financial support for maintaining the minimum living standards of workers displaced by automation [8][12] Group 3 - The discussion around a "robot tax" is not solely about taxation but also about fostering a more inclusive and equitable approach to the ongoing technological revolution [6][15] - Tax experts suggest that a "robot tax" could help balance the economic impact of automation on social stability [7][9] - The debate includes concerns that imposing a "robot tax" could hinder the development of the robotics industry [9][10] Group 4 - Various proposals for a "robot tax" include taxing companies that replace human workers with robots, implementing a virtual wage for robot workers, and including robot activities in VAT [12][14] - The legal and theoretical implications of taxing robots challenge existing tax frameworks, as current systems are designed for human labor [14][15] - The potential negative effects of robot proliferation include job loss and increased economic inequality, similar to externalities from pollution or harmful substances [15][16]

本文来自微信公众号：经济观察报 （ID：eeo-com-cn），作者：杜涛，题图来自：AI生成 1930年，经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（John Maynard Keynes）在《我们孙辈的经济可能性》一文中作 出预测：100年后，劳动生产率会提高8至10倍，每人每周只需要工作15个小时。 到那个时候，"经济问题"可能得到解决，人们面临的主要问题将是如何消磨时间。 如今，随着AI（人工智能）技术的突破和机器人产业化曙光初现，凯恩斯所预测的"人从工作中解脱"似 乎有了实现的可能。但与此相对，社会学家、法学家和税收专家更担忧"机器人替代人力"引发的就业问 题，而解决的思路之一就是向机器人"征税"。 韩国仁荷大学法学院教授金英顺对经济观察报表示，从长远来看，人工智能技术应用将催生新职业、改 变工作内容，但从短期内来看，就业市场大概率会受到负面冲击。与以往不同，人工智能技术能够替代 人类的判断与决策过程，或使办公、行政乃至专业领域的岗位面临风险。因此，政府在社会福利政策与 税收政策方面也需作出相应调整。 2025年，金英顺在8月份召开的中韩税法国际研讨会上，以《AI机器人税：税收哲学的核心争论和政策 推演》为题发表 ...

讨论机器人税问题的价值不仅仅在于征税本身，还包括建立一 种更关键的意识：需要以一种更普惠和公平的方式推动这轮技 术革命。 作者： 杜涛 封图：视觉中国 到那个时候，"经济问题"可能得到解决，人们面临的主要问题将是如何消磨时间。 如今，随着AI（人工智能）技术的突破和机器人产业化曙光初现，凯恩斯所预测的"人从工作中解 脱"似乎有了实现的可能。但与此相对， 社会学家、法学家和税收专家更担忧"机器人替代人力"引 发的就业问题，而解决的思路之一就是向机器人"征税"。 韩国仁荷大学法学院教授金英顺对经济观察报表示，从长远来看，人工智能技术应用将催生新职 业、改变工作内容，但从短期内来看，就业市场大概率会受到负面冲击。与以往不同，人工智能技 术能够替代人类的判断与决策过程，或使办公、行政乃至专业领域的岗位面临风险。因此，政府在 社会福利政策与税收政策方面也需作出相应调整。 2025年，金英顺在8月份召开的中韩税法国际研讨会上，以《AI机器人税：税收哲学的核心争论和 政策推演》为题发表演讲，认为AI机器人的广泛应用可能导致大量失业，政府需要通过"机器人 税"为维持劳动者的最低生活及失业者的再就业提供积极的财政支援。她提出， ...

韩国仁荷大学法学院教授金英顺表示，征收"机器人税"并非要 惩罚企业的创新行为，而是要确保技术进步与社会稳定、社会 包容同步推进。 作者： 杜涛 封图：图虫创意 或许有一天，大部分的工作岗位会被人工智能机器人取代，届时税收与社保收入该从何而来？ 9月22日，经济观察报就征收"机器人税"征收的相关问题，专访了韩国仁荷大学法学院教授金英 顺。金英顺的主要研究方向包括税务诉讼、国际税务以及遗产税。 金英顺对经济观察报表示，目前尚无任何国家或地区以任何形式实施过"机器人税"。但也有一些地 方提出过类似建议。2017年，欧洲议会曾讨论过"赋予机器人法律人格"和"对机器人征税"的可能 性；旧金山也曾提议设立地方性的"机器人税"，用于资助劳动者相关项目，不过这些提议均未真正 落地。 与此同时，学术界也在不断提出各类"机器人税"方案。值得注意的是，尽管这些提议的目标相似 ——即实现公平与社会保障，但采用的方式差异很大，涵盖从直接征税到减少相关激励措施等多种 形式。 近十年来，众多专家学者与企业界人士已注意到机器人替代人工的趋势，特别是在近些年机器人使 用率大幅提升，一个关键问题越发凸显： 当机器人替代人力后，能否像对个人征税那 ...

或许有一天，大部分的工作岗位会被人工智能机器人取代，届时税收与社保收入该从何而来？ 近十年来，众多专家学者与企业界人士已注意到机器人替代人工的趋势，特别是在近些年机器人使用率 大幅提升，一个关键问题越发凸显：当机器人替代人力后，能否像对个人征税那样对其征税，又或是否 有选择其他方式补充税源？ 9月22日，经济观察报就征收"机器人税"征收的相关问题，专访了韩国仁荷大学法学院教授金英顺。金 英顺的主要研究方向包括税务诉讼、国际税务以及遗产税。 金英顺对经济观察报表示，目前尚无任何国家或地区以任何形式实施过"机器人税"。但也有一些地方提 出过类似建议。2017年，欧洲议会曾讨论过"赋予机器人法律人格"和"对机器人征税"的可能性；旧金山 也曾提议设立地方性的"机器人税"，用于资助劳动者相关项目，不过这些提议均未真正落地。 与此同时，学术界也在不断提出各类"机器人税"方案。值得注意的是，尽管这些提议的目标相似——即 实现公平与社会保障，但采用的方式差异很大，涵盖从直接征税到减少相关激励措施等多种形式。 经济观察报：当企业借助自动化获得巨额利润时，其对社会的责任是否应超越"创造就业"？你认为"机 器人税"是否在重新构建2 ...

金英顺说，机器人产业是高度资本密集型产业，其带来的资本回报率远高于雇佣人力，因此资本将向资本拥有者进一步集中。 长期从事税务实践的金杜律师事务所合伙人叶永青认为，人工智能时代的到来，是人类发展史上的又一个里程碑，正如一位人工智能先驱所说，"如果机器 学不会善良，那么发展人工智能带来的就是灾难"。从税法的平衡角度，再分配本身就是人类社会的善良和对所有人最真实的保障。 对这些税收专家的建议，机器人行业从业者认为，考虑这个问题为时尚早。 一位机器人板块的上市公司负责人对记者表示，当前机器人产业还需要扶持发展，而且机器人是人工智能的重要载体，目前讨论征收"机器人税"为时尚早。 他认为，当前应该像扶持新能源产业一样扶持机器人产业。 但在研究者看来，讨论这个问题的价值不仅仅在于征税本身，还包括建立一种更关键的意识：需要以一种更普惠和公平的方式推动这轮技术革命。 1930年，经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯（JohnMaynardKeynes）在《我们孙辈的经济可能性》一文中作出预测：100年后，劳动生产率会提高8至10倍，每人每 周只需要工作15个小时。 到那个时候，"经济问题"可能得到解决，人们面临的主要问题将是如何消磨时 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept of a "robot tax" is gaining traction as a response to the economic and social changes brought about by automation and artificial intelligence, with discussions occurring in various countries including the US, Germany, and South Korea [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Potential and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the global humanoid robot market could exceed $5 trillion, with over 1 billion humanoid robots in use, indicating a significant technological shift comparable to the internet [2]. - The rapid development of humanoid robots is expected to lead to substantial market growth, with projections suggesting that China could have over 100 million humanoid robots in use by 2045, creating a market size of approximately 10 trillion yuan [8][9]. Group 2: Economic and Social Implications - The introduction of a "robot tax" is seen as a way to redistribute the economic benefits of automation, addressing potential job losses and funding social programs such as retraining for displaced workers and universal basic income (UBI) [3][4]. - Experts argue that taxing robots could provide new fiscal resources to support social safety nets, especially as traditional labor-based tax systems face challenges due to automation [3][4]. Group 3: Global Discussions and Perspectives - Germany has been discussing the "robot tax" for years, with labor unions supporting the idea while businesses express concerns that such a tax could stifle innovation and economic growth [5][6]. - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has advocated for a robot tax to ensure economic sustainability and equitable distribution of the benefits of AI and automation, although there are calls to address more pressing issues like technological independence first [6][7]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - Experts caution that the timing for implementing a universal robot tax may not be ripe, as the humanoid robot industry is still in its early commercial application stages, with significant uncertainties regarding technology and market dynamics [9][10]. - A more prudent approach may involve phased strategies that focus on encouraging innovation and establishing standards rather than immediate taxation, allowing for pilot programs to assess the impact of such policies [10][11].

Core Concept - The discussion around a "robot tax" has gained traction due to the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence and humanoid robots, raising concerns about job displacement and the need for a new tax framework to address the economic and social implications of automation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Potential and Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2050, the global humanoid robot market could exceed $5 trillion, with over 1 billion humanoid robots in use, indicating a significant technological shift comparable to the internet [2]. - The humanoid robot industry is currently transitioning from experimental phases to industrial applications, with projections suggesting that China could have over 100 million humanoid robots in use by 2045, with a market size reaching approximately 10 trillion yuan [8][9]. Group 2: Economic and Social Implications - The concept of a "robot tax" is seen as a proactive response to the economic changes brought about by automation, aiming to redistribute the productivity gains from technology to support retraining and social welfare programs [3][4]. - Experts argue that taxing automation could provide new fiscal resources to support displaced workers and explore models like Universal Basic Income (UBI) [3][4]. Group 3: Global Perspectives and Challenges - Countries like Germany and South Korea have engaged in discussions about implementing a robot tax, with varying opinions from labor unions and business sectors regarding its potential impact on innovation and economic growth [5][6]. - Concerns exist that a poorly designed robot tax could stifle innovation and place domestic industries at a competitive disadvantage globally, highlighting the need for careful policy design [7][9]. Group 4: Current Industry Status and Recommendations - The humanoid robot industry is still in its early commercial application stages, facing challenges such as high manufacturing costs and limited operational capabilities, which hinder widespread adoption [9][10]. - Experts recommend a phased approach to policy development, focusing on encouraging innovation and establishing standards rather than rushing into taxation, to create a supportive environment for the industry's growth [10].

Core Insights - The future of humanoid robots is approaching a tipping point where they could perform tasks similar to humans, leading to the potential implementation of a "robot tax" [2][3] - The humanoid robot market is expected to exceed $5 trillion by 2050, with nearly 1 billion units, indicating a technological shift comparable to the Industrial Revolution [3][11] Price Decline and Technological Benefits - The price of humanoid robots has significantly decreased, with the Unitree H1 priced at 650,000 yuan in 2023, while the R1 is now available for 39,900 yuan, comparable to an economy electric vehicle [3][6] - The number of registered companies in humanoid robotics has increased by 45% in 2023, reaching nearly 1,200, indicating rapid industry expansion [5] - Three factors contributing to the price drop include: 1. Mass production capabilities leading to scale in manufacturing [5][7] 2. Localization of components, reducing reliance on imports [7] 3. Adaptation of domestic AI models, enhancing functionality without high cloud costs [7] Application and Market Dynamics - Humanoid robots are currently in a phase of demonstration rather than widespread application, facing challenges in task complexity, operational stability, and return on investment (ROI) [8][10] - Companies are beginning to test humanoid robots in real-world scenarios, with some achieving ROI within 18 months, significantly shorter than traditional industrial robots [10] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies adopting either full-stack development or modular supply strategies to enhance product maturity and reduce costs [10] Growth Potential and Market Projections - The humanoid robot market is poised for exponential growth, with predictions indicating that once the critical threshold is crossed, adoption will accelerate rapidly [11][12] - By 2027, the industry is expected to surpass an annual production capacity of 1 million units, potentially reaching a market size of 30 billion yuan for basic models alone [12] - The emergence of a "robot tax" could influence pricing strategies and deployment decisions, making it a significant factor in the industry's cost structure [12]

Core Insights - The 2025 World Robot Conference in Beijing highlighted the rapid growth potential of the humanoid robot industry, with expectations of annual shipment doubling in the coming years [1][5] - The CEO of Yushu Technology, Wang Xingxing, emphasized the need for robots to perform practical tasks to change societal perceptions and suggested the possibility of a "robot tax" in the future [2][3] Industry Growth - IDC reports indicate that China's humanoid robot commercial sales are projected to reach approximately 2,000 units in 2024, with an expected increase to 60,000 units by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 95.3% [6] - The global humanoid robot shipment is anticipated to reach 18,000 units by 2025, with significant growth expected over the next decade due to factors such as aging populations and labor shortages [6] Company Performance - Yushu Technology is currently the leading company in humanoid robot shipments, with an estimated 1,400 units expected in 2024 [5] - The company recently secured a humanoid robot procurement project worth 46.05 million yuan, indicating recognition and progress in commercial applications [5] Technological Development - Wang Xingxing believes that significant technological breakthroughs could occur within 2 to 3 years, but it may take up to 10 years for robots to perform practical tasks effectively [4] - The industry is experiencing heightened attention and competition, which necessitates companies to focus on product quality and customer experience [6]