Core Viewpoint - UBS Asset Management's Kevin Zhao plans to capitalize on the significant rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields next year by selling, anticipating that a dovish Federal Reserve and President Trump's efforts to stimulate growth before the midterm elections will reignite inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The market may begin to price in the risk of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by the end of next year, which could diminish the attractiveness of long-term U.S. Treasuries [1] - Economic growth is expected to accelerate, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 2027, especially if the new Fed Chair continues to push for rate cuts despite strengthening growth signals [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The interest rate spread between long-term and short-term Treasuries is projected to widen to its widest level since 2021 [1]

瑞银资产管理的Kevin Zhao计划利用明年10年期美国国债大幅上涨的机会卖出，并认为鸽派美联储以及 美国总统特朗普在中期选举前刺激增长的努力将重新激化通胀。在瑞银资产管理担任主动管理型主权、 固定收益和外汇基金负责人的Zhao表示，市场可能会在明年年底前开始计入一次美联储加息的风险， 从而削弱较长期美债的吸引力，并推动其相对于短债之间的利差扩大至2021年以来的最宽水平。 ...