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股市?情未完,债市情绪回暖
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 06:51
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific financial derivatives: - Stock index futures are expected to be "oscillating with a bullish bias" [9] - Stock index options are also expected to be "oscillating with a bullish bias" [10] - Treasury bond futures are expected to be "oscillating" [10] 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market rally is not over, and the sentiment in the bond market has improved. Stock index futures are in high - level oscillations with shrinking capital; stock index option trading remains active, and the skewness indicates that the market rally is not over; the bullish sentiment in the bond market continues [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and oscillated, with trading volume shrinking by nearly 500 billion yuan to 2.7 trillion yuan. All four stock index futures varieties reduced their positions by over 10,000 lots [9]. - **Reasons for Oscillations**: High trading volume is not sustainable; during the intensive disclosure period of interim reports, funds are avoiding high - valuation sectors; with the approaching military parade, risk appetite may converge [9]. - **Outlook**: This retracement is defined as an oscillation in a bull market. Loss - making stock price increases, a signal of the end of a bull market, have not appeared. It is recommended to continue holding IM long positions and wait for opportunities to add positions [9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The trading volume of the options market was 14.636 billion yuan, still above the 10 - billion - yuan level. After the decline, the position PCR did not drop significantly, and the skewness index decreased. Volatility is high, with most varieties oscillating at high levels [10][11]. - **Outlook**: The market is still expected to rise. It is recommended to continue holding long - position strategies, such as buying call options or using bull spreads [10][11]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 17.45 billion yuan, but the inter - bank pledged repurchase rate mostly declined, and the capital market remained loose [4][12]. - **Reasons for Bullish Sentiment**: The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index supported the long - end of the bond market through the stock - bond seesaw effect. This week, trading funds such as fund companies have turned to net buying of bonds [4][12]. - **Outlook**: Short - term risk appetite improvement may disrupt the bond market. It is advisable to focus on opportunities for narrowing long - end basis spreads [4][12]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar lists data such as the US new home sales in July 2025, the S&P/CS housing price index of 20 large and medium - sized cities in the US in June, and the expected data of the eurozone's economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index in August [13]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas in 2025, and 19,800 have been started from January to July. Six regions including Hebei and Liaoning have a start - up rate of over 90% [14]. - The State Council issued the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Initiative", proposing to increase financial and fiscal support in the field of artificial intelligence [15][16]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission requires state - owned enterprises to further deepen industrial assistance to Tibet and promote major projects such as the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [16]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the given text [17][21][33]