1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a significant decline, pulp is expected to move in a volatile manner. The main logic of "weak demand" for pulp continues, but the strengthening of the basis of mainstream softwood pulp in the market indicates that demand may have slightly bottomed out. Mainstream paper mills have issued a new round of price increase letters, and the implementation situation remains to be observed. It is expected that the downstream will operate in a volatile manner [7]. - The fundamentals of hardwood pulp are better than those of softwood pulp, and the basis of hardwood pulp is expected to continue to strengthen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is neutral. Chile's Arauco Company offered its hardwood pulp "Star" at $550 per ton and its unbleached kraft pulp "Venus" at $620 per ton in November. In November 2025, China's pulp production was 2.342 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% [4]. - **Demand**: It is slightly bullish. Mainstream paper mills have issued a new round of price increase letters, and the price of household tissue paper has slightly increased. The subsequent implementation needs to be observed [4]. - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.172 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The inventory showed a slight de - stocking trend during this period [4]. - **Investment Viewpoint**: Long spread on hardwood pulp. The fundamentals of hardwood pulp are better than those of softwood pulp, and the basis of hardwood pulp is expected to continue to strengthen [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, no specific strategy is provided. For arbitrage, no specific strategy is provided. Attention should be paid to the cancellation of old warehouse receipts and the registration of new warehouse receipts [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Market Review**: Pulp prices declined slightly this week. Following a significant decline last week, the main logic of "weak demand" for pulp continued. However, the strengthening of the basis of mainstream softwood pulp in the market may indicate that demand has slightly bottomed out. Mainstream paper mills using wood pulp have generally issued price increase letters, and the implementation situation remains to be observed. It is expected that the downstream will operate in a volatile manner [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of hardwood pulp increased, while the price of softwood pulp decreased. The price of softwood pulp "Silver Star" was 5,350 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan per ton and a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan per ton. The price of softwood pulp "Buzhen" was 4,700 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan per ton and a month - on - month increase of 70 yuan per ton. The price of hardwood pulp "Jinyu" was 4,450 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan per ton and a month - on - month increase of 150 yuan per ton [16]. - **Position on the Board**: The total position of pulp futures contracts increased, and the roll - over process began. As of November 28, 2025, the total position of pulp futures contracts was 359,967, a 10.60% increase from last week. The position of the main pulp futures contract was 127,140 lots, a 9.24% decrease from last week [24]. 3.3 Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Pulp/Wood Chip Imports**: In October, the imports of softwood pulp and wood chips decreased [26]. - **Inventory**: The pulp inventory at ports was stable, and the cancellation of old warehouse receipts increased. Overseas pulp mill inventory days decreased. As of the end of September, the inventory days of 20 major global pulp suppliers were 46 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp were 47 days, and the inventory days of bleached hardwood pulp were 45 days [34][39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The price of household tissue paper increased slightly, while the prices of other paper types remained stable. In October 2025, the production of paper products increased month - on - month. The inventory of double - offset paper increased, and the available days of inventory also increased. European pulp demand recovered, and US demand was stable [41][48][71]. 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Spread**: The basis and monthly spread were stable. As of November 28, 2025, the basis of Shandong "Russian Needle" was - 498 yuan per ton, a decrease of 120 yuan per ton from last week. The basis of Shandong "Silver Star" was 152 yuan per ton, a decrease of 40 yuan per ton from last week. As of November 21, 2025, the 12 - 1 monthly spread of pulp was - 494 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan per ton from last week [80]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of pulp was stable. As of November 28, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp was - 39.43 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 54.46 yuan per ton. The import profit of hardwood pulp was 190.4 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.41 yuan per ton from last week [84].