防御和成长风格轮动
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【策略】大小盘风格分化或将收敛——策略周专题(2025年5月第2期)(张宇生/郭磊)
光大证券研究· 2025-05-18 13:18
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a general upward trend, with major indices such as the ChiNext Index, SSE 50, and CSI 300 leading in gains, while the STAR 50 and CSI 500 experienced slight declines [3] Market Performance - The A-share market saw most major indices rise, with significant gains in large-cap growth and value stocks, while small-cap growth stocks slightly declined [3] - Since early April, small-cap indices have significantly outperformed large and mid-cap indices, with the performance of small-cap stocks being notably better during the recent market recovery [4][5] Reasons for Small-Cap Outperformance - The small-cap indices had larger declines during previous market downturns, leading to a stronger rebound as the market recovered [5] - Progress in high-level Sino-U.S. trade talks has improved market risk appetite, benefiting the more elastic small-cap indices [5] - The active state of thematic investments has also contributed to the better performance of small-cap indices [5] Future Market Trends - Historical patterns suggest that the divergence between small and large-cap stocks may converge in the future, as market conditions evolve [6] - Long-term capital inflows into the A-share market, supported by favorable policies, typically favor large-cap stocks [6] - The recent improvement in market risk appetite due to trade talks may be offset by ongoing U.S. restrictions in the tech sector, which could disproportionately affect small-cap stocks [6] - With the completion of Q1 earnings reports, market focus may shift towards fundamentals, where large-cap stocks currently show stronger profitability [6] - The trading congestion difference between large and small-cap indices is at a historical low, indicating a potential shift in market style [6] Investment Style Focus - The market may experience a rotation between defensive and growth styles, with defensive investments focusing on stable or high-dividend sectors, while growth investments target thematic growth and independent sectors [8] - Current policies are primarily stabilizing, and the likelihood of strong economic realities or expectations in the short term is relatively low, leading to fluctuations in market sentiment [8]