目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 焦炭市场周报 商品市场情绪回暖，钢厂提降压制价格 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 1. 宏观方面，国家相关部委正在积极部署和推进全国粗钢产量调控工作，工业和信息化部正在加紧修订《钢铁行业产能置换实施 办法》，目前已形成初稿；央行降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；自5月8日起，个人 住房公积金贷款利率下调0.25个百分点。 2. 海外方面，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间，符合市场预期；特朗普和英国首相斯塔默宣布达 成一项有限双边贸易协议，其中英国将购买价值100亿美元的波音飞机。 3. 供需方面，短期供应弹性好于焦煤，铁水产量上升空间有限。利润方面，本期全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利7元/吨，钢厂 提出节后焦炭首轮降价，谨防关税达成的乐观情绪消退，煤炭价格重新回落，二三季度淡季来临后，弱现实仍然是主要矛盾之 一。 4. 技术方面，焦炭主力周K趋势：周K线处于60日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the state is promoting national crude steel production control, the central bank has cut the reserve - requirement ratio, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has been lowered. Overseas, the Fed maintained the interest rate, and a limited bilateral trade agreement was reached. The iron - alloy sector is under pressure, with negative production profits and weak steel demand expectations. The cost of electricity in Ningxia has decreased, and the technical trend of the silicon - iron main contract is bearish. It is recommended to treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The state is promoting crude steel production control, the central bank cut the reserve - requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points. Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%, and a limited bilateral trade agreement was reached, with the UK buying $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The iron - alloy sector is under pressure, with negative production profits. The profit in Inner Mongolia is - 230 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 110 yuan/ton. Steel demand expectations are generally weak. Follow - up tariff conflicts may see new progress after the Sino - US talks [6]. - **Cost Aspect**: The electricity cost in Ningxia decreased by 1 cent, and the semi - coke price remained stable [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon - iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating due to the decrease in supply and pressure on sector demand [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of May 9, the silicon - iron futures contract open interest was 473,800 lots, a week - on - week increase of 85,100 lots; the monthly spread was - 50, a week - on - week decrease of 126. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 18,908, an increase of 1,804. The spot price in Ningxia was 5,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan/ton [12][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of May 9, the silicon - iron basis was - 82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 24 [21]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Industry**: The silicon - iron operating rate increased, while demand decreased. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types was 20,336.3 tons, a 2.00% decrease from last week. The national operating rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 32.53%, an increase of 1.79%. The daily output was 14,700 tons, an increase of 550 tons. The inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises decreased by 11.83% to 73,700 tons [27][30]. - **Upstream**: As of May 6, the electricity price in Ningxia was 0.41 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kWh, and in Inner Mongolia, it remained at 0.42 yuan/kWh. As of May 8, the semi - coke price remained at 665 yuan/ton. The production cost in Ningxia was 5,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia, it remained at 5,680 yuan/ton. The production profit in Ningxia was - 110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [34][39]. - **Downstream**: As of May 9, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4564 million tons, an increase of 0.0022 million tons from last week and 0.1114 million tons from last year. From January to March 2025, the total silicon - iron export volume was 90,500 tons, a 18.70% decrease from the same period last year. The silicon - iron tender price was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton compared to March [44].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened significantly higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.24% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 2.72% [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector saw substantial gains, with Sunac China opening over 8% higher and Country Garden rising more than 4% [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and a decrease in the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, which is expected to positively influence market sentiment [1]

潘功胜：将降低汽车租赁公司存款准备金率。 ...