2026 年度黑色策略报告 光期研究 2026 年度黑色策略报告 光大期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 2026 年度黑色策略报告 目 录 | 钢材：供需形势有望改善，钢价重心或有上移 3 | | --- | | 铁矿石: 供需宽松继续 聚焦非主流矿增量 28 | | 煤焦：供需格局仍偏宽松，价格底部震荡为主 52 | | 铁合金：供需宽松格局难改 73 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 2026 年度黑色策略报告 钢材：供需形势有望改善，钢价重心或有上移 研究总监：邱跃成 年报摘要： ⚫ 粗钢产量压减继续实施，产量仍将小幅下降 2025 年 1-10 月我国粗钢产量 81787.4 万吨，同比减少 3319 万吨，降幅 3.9%。预计 2025 年 全年粗钢产量约 9.62 亿吨，同比减少 4309 万吨，降幅 4.3%。《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025— 2026 年）》提出要求 2025-2026 年钢铁行业增加值年均增长 4%左右，严禁新增产能、实施产量压 减。工信部对《钢铁行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is expected to experience a reduction in production capacity and an improvement in quality, leading to stabilization in prices and profits in 2026 [1] Group 1: Supply - A new capacity replacement policy is set to be implemented, which is expected to continue reducing crude steel production in 2026 [6] - The capacity replacement policy will increase the reduction ratio in non-key areas to at least 1.5:1, enhancing long-term capacity constraints [14][18] - The overall crude steel production is anticipated to decrease year-on-year due to differentiated production restrictions and proactive production control by enterprises [6][28] Group 2: Demand - Investment stability and domestic demand expansion are expected to lead to a recovery in steel demand in 2026 [6] - The construction sector is projected to see a recovery in fixed asset investment, supported by policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [36] - Manufacturing sectors such as automotive, machinery, and home appliances are expected to maintain growth in steel demand due to supportive policies [6][57] Group 3: Costs - Steel cost pressures are expected to continue easing in 2026, with iron ore supply slightly increasing and demand stabilizing [6][61] - The global iron ore supply is projected to see a slight increase, with the four major mining companies expected to have a production growth rate of about 1.8% in 2026 [66] - The overall balance between iron ore supply and demand is expected to remain weak, with prices anticipated to fluctuate downward [6][61] Group 4: Prices and Profits - The reduction in production and improvement in quality are expected to help stabilize steel prices and profits in 2026 [6] - Demand for flat steel is expected to remain stronger than for long steel, with policies aimed at further tapping into consumption potential [6] - The anticipated decline in crude steel production, primarily driven by loss-making enterprises and policy-induced reductions, will contribute to a mild improvement in the steel supply-demand landscape [6] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector and those involved in restructuring and integration, such as Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [6] - In the special steel sector, high-performance steel products are encouraged, with companies like Jiuli Special Materials and Yongjin Co. expected to benefit from policy support [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 94.598 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.96%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.510 billion yuan, an increase of 41.72% year-on-year [1][4] - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 31.804 billion yuan, down 10.59% year-on-year, but the net profit increased by 73.22% year-on-year to 762 million yuan [1] - The report highlights that the company's production and operations remained stable in Q3, with minor fluctuations in production and sales compared to Q2 [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the gross margin was 9.81%, up 2.96 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 3.31%, up 1.14 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The report projects the company's EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.52, 0.58, and 0.64 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times [2][3] Industry Insights - The steel industry is undergoing capacity replacement policies that emphasize reduction and green transformation, with a limited window for capacity expansion through external purchases [2] - The report anticipates that the ongoing supply-side reforms and the gradual elimination of outdated capacity will benefit leading companies in the industry [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 28, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1242.0, down 0.76%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No.5 clean coal was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On October 28, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1747.5, down 0.96%. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It is driven by cost and should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1242.00 yuan/ton, down 21.50 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1747.50 yuan/ton, down 32.00 yuan [2]. - The JM futures contract position was 911,218.00 lots, down 16,022.00 lots; the J futures contract position was 49,303.00 lots, down 710.00 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 63,323.00 lots, up 1,548.00 lots; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 4,432.00 lots, up 44.00 lots [2]. - The JM5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 65.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 monthly contract spread was 129.50 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 100.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 2,070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No.5 raw coal was 1,135.00 yuan/ton, up 5.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,775.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 157.50 US dollars/wet ton, up 2.50 US dollars; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1,570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,760.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1,520.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; the price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory was 1,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the JM main contract was 278.00 yuan/ton, up 91.50 yuan; the basis of the J main contract was 27.50 yuan/ton, up 87.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.70 million tons, up 0.60 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 289.60 million tons, down 0.80 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.37%, up 0.01%; the monthly raw coal output was 41,150.50 million tons, up 2,100.80 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4,600.00 million tons, up 326.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.00 thousand tons, down 5.10 thousand tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 507.18 million tons, up 19.02 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.79 million tons, up 8.14 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1,029.70 million tons, up 32.33 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 58.64 million tons, up 1.35 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 782.96 million tons, down 5.36 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 633.16 million tons, down 6.28 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 12.77 days, down 0.13 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.07 days, down 0.12 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1,092.36 million tons, up 76.14 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 3,696.86 million tons, down 392.52 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.47%, down 0.77% [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 41.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00 yuan/ton; the monthly output of coke was 4,255.60 million tons, down 4.10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.73%, up 0.48%; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.92%, down 0.39% [2]. - The monthly output of crude steel was 7,349.01 million tons, down 387.84 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented. The mainstream steel mills in Shandong and Hebei have issued letters to increase the coke purchase price, with a wet - quenching increase of 50 yuan/ton and a dry - quenching increase of 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on October 27 [2]. - The latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that the US government debt - to - GDP ratio will reach 143.4% by 2030, exceeding that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century [2]. - On October 27, Premier Li Qiang of the State Council attended the Fifth Leaders' Meeting of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The parties to the agreement should cooperate more closely to jointly address challenges [2]. - US President Trump said that Russian President Putin should end the war in Ukraine instead of testing nuclear missiles, and added that the US has deployed a nuclear - powered submarine near the Russian coast [2]. - On October 25, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the major "west - to - east coal transportation" artery in China, completed its autumn maintenance, laying a foundation for coal supply during the coming winter and spring [2].

Core Insights - The revised 2025 version of the "Steel Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Measures" introduces stricter regulations on "zombie capacity," prohibiting the replacement of capacity that has not been built or has operated less than 90 days per year for two consecutive years [1] - New regulations on capacity trading have been established, allowing capacity replacement between different enterprises for iron and steel within two years of the implementation of the measures, after which it will be prohibited [1] Industry Overview - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Index (930606), which includes listed companies involved in ordinary steel, special steel, and metal products, reflecting the overall performance of the steel industry [1] - The index consists mainly of steel manufacturing companies, exhibiting strong cyclical characteristics, with a focus on raw materials, indicating a close relationship between the steel industry and market dynamics as well as economic cycles [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the revised "Steel Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Measures (Draft for Comments)" aimed at promoting high-quality development in the steel industry by tightening capacity replacement rules and enhancing regulatory measures [2][5] - The new draft increases the capacity replacement ratio to a minimum of 1.5:1 nationwide, with specific exceptions for newly acquired compliant capacity through mergers and acquisitions [2][3] - The draft prohibits the transfer of steel production capacity into key regions and sets a 24-month deadline for capacity replacement among different enterprises [2][4] - The report emphasizes the need for capacity to be strictly linked to smelting equipment, preventing the separation of capacity and equipment [4][5] - The new measures are expected to create a more orderly competitive landscape in the steel industry, focusing on quality development and structural optimization [5][6] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The draft policy tightens capacity replacement rules, requiring a uniform replacement ratio of 1.5:1 across all provinces, with limited exceptions for specific cases [2][3] - Key regions are prohibited from increasing total steel production capacity and transferring capacity from non-key to key regions [2][3] Regulatory Enhancements - The draft introduces stricter regulations to ensure that replaced capacity is used once and aligns with energy efficiency and environmental standards [4][5] - It establishes a provincial-level acceptance procedure and annual self-inspection to enhance oversight [4][5] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates that the implementation of these measures will lead to a reduction in excess capacity and an improvement in industry profitability, benefiting leading companies with strong cost control and high margins [6] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies with advanced equipment and strong environmental standards, as well as those positioned to benefit from the new energy cycle [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released a draft for public consultation regarding the implementation of capacity replacement in the steel industry, aiming to optimize capacity and promote high-quality development in the sector [1][3]. Summary by Sections Purpose and Basis - The draft aims to implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party and related policies to accelerate the reduction and quality improvement of existing steel production capacity, optimize structure, and promote market balance [3]. Scope of Application - The measures apply to all types of enterprises within China that are involved in the construction, reconstruction, expansion, or major repairs of iron and steel smelting equipment [3]. Definitions - "Equal replacement" refers to the construction capacity being equal to the capacity being exited, while "reduction replacement" indicates that the construction capacity is less than the exited capacity [3]. Capacity Replacement Ratio - The capacity replacement ratio for iron and steel production in all provinces must not be less than 1.5:1, with a lower ratio of 1.25:1 applicable to newly acquired compliant capacity post-June 1, 2021 [1][10]. Conditions for Equal Replacement - Equal replacement can be implemented under three conditions: internal major repairs without changing equipment type, special steel production using advanced processes, and projects in Qinghai and Tibet [1][10]. Encouragement of Green Practices - The draft encourages the efficient use of scrap steel, orderly development of electric furnace steel, and the adoption of green low-carbon technology in existing equipment [1][9]. Prohibited Capacity for Replacement - Six categories of capacity are prohibited from being used for replacement, including capacities listed for reduction tasks and those not actually constructed before the announcement of the replacement plan [4]. Cross-Regional Replacement - Enterprises are encouraged to implement cross-regional capacity replacement, with specific verification and public announcement requirements for capacity transfers [11]. Project Management and Verification - The draft outlines strict management and verification processes for capacity replacement projects, including public announcements and compliance checks by provincial departments [14][13]. Policy Transition - Existing capacity replacement plans announced before August 23, 2024, will continue to be executed under the original guidelines, ensuring policy continuity [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is soliciting public opinions on the draft implementation measures for capacity replacement in the steel industry, focusing on the regulation of capacity exit and replacement processes [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Capacity Exit Regulation - For legally compliant smelting equipment built after 2016, the quantity of capacity to be exited will be determined according to the "Capacity Calculation Table" [1] - For smelting equipment listed in the State Council's inventory, the exit capacity will be based on the capacity numbers in that inventory [1] - If there is a mismatch between the smelting equipment and the capacity in the State Council's inventory, the relevant smelting equipment will have its capacity proportionally allocated based on the "Capacity Calculation Table" [1] Capacity Replacement Procedures - Any capacity replacement plans and allocation lists that have been announced by provincial industrial and information authorities (or central enterprises) before August 23, 2024, will be considered valid based on the announcement [1] - The capacity of newly constructed smelting equipment for phosphorus removal must comply with the capacity replacement procedures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has revised the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry" and is seeking public opinions on the draft, which outlines specific criteria for capacity replacement in the steel sector [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Policy Changes - The draft specifies that only smelting equipment listed in the State Council's capacity reduction plan from 2016 and legally compliant smelting equipment built since 2016 can be used for capacity replacement [1] Exclusions for Capacity Replacement - Six categories of capacity are explicitly prohibited from being used for replacement: 1. Capacity included in the steel industry's capacity reduction tasks and those that received financial support for exit [1] 2. Capacity from smelting equipment that was not actually built and put into production before the provincial industrial and information authorities announced the capacity replacement plan [1] 3. Capacity from outdated production equipment as defined in the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment" [1] 4. Capacity from iron and steel equipment that has operated less than 90 days per year for two consecutive years after the implementation of this measure [1] 5. Capacity from non-steel industry smelting equipment such as casting, forging, and ferroalloy [1] 6. Capacity from auxiliary production equipment like vanadium converters and secondary refining furnaces that have not completed capacity replacement procedures or are not listed in the State Council's capacity reduction plan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced the upgrade and construction of its blast furnace equipment, specifically the replacement of existing furnaces with new ones, which will increase production capacity from 2.71 million tons to 3.08 million tons [1][2]. Group 1: Project Details - The original plan involved replacing two existing 450m³ furnaces and two 1000m³ furnaces with two 1550m³ furnaces, with a total production capacity of 2.71 million tons per year [1]. - The revised plan now includes replacing the existing furnaces with one 2290m³ furnace and one 1200m³ furnace, resulting in an increased capacity of 3.08 million tons [1][2]. - The replacement ratio has changed from 1.25:1 to 1.1:1 [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Compliance - The project has been verified and approved by the Liaoning Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, confirming that it meets the requirements of the "Steel Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Management Measures" [2]. - The new 2290m³ furnace has been confirmed to align with the announced capacity replacement plan and is deemed ready for production [2].